Here are a few notes on the Red Sox’ acquisition of Craig Kimbrel from the Padres last night for prospects Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra, Carlos Asuaje and Logan Allen.
- The trade is likely to represent the Red Sox’ biggest trade of the offseason, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski says (via Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal on Twitter).
- The Red Sox still need a front-of-the-rotation pitcher, but they’re likely to pursue that kind of player via the free agent market, Dombrowski tells reporters, including Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. “My thought process is most likely any acquisition we’d make in the starting pitching would first happen as far as the free-agent field is concerned,” Dombrowski. “You never know, but that would be my guess.” Lauber does note that the team has spoken with executives from other teams about potential trade acquisitions, but the Athletics don’t seem inclined to trade Sonny Gray, and ditto with the White Sox and Chris Sale. That could mean the Red Sox sign David Price, Johnny Cueto or Zack Greinke.
- The Red Sox’ decision to deal four good prospects for Kimbrel suggests a change in the team’s approach, John Tomase of WEEI.com writes. Former GM Ben Cherington built up talent in the Sox’ farm system but would probably have been reluctant to make such an aggressive trade. The Red Sox pursuing top free agent pitchers like Price, too, would have been unlikely under Cherington.
- Trading so many prospects so early in his tenure represents a risk for Dombrowski, MacPherson writes. MacPherson cites Cubs GM Jed Hoyer, who was new in town a few years back when his team sent a package that included DJ LeMahieu to Colorado for infielder Ian Stewart. “Those kind of mistakes happen when a regime comes in and they don’t know the guys as well,” says Hoyer. “They’re relying more on internal evaluations and scouting reports, third-hand information. Anytime you go to a new organization, those are your risks — and there are risks of being inactive because you’re worried about making mistakes, too.”
- The Kimbrel deal was exactly the kind of trade Dombrowski was hired to make, writes Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe. Abraham notes that many commentators (like FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron and ESPN Insider’s Keith Law, for example) disliked the trade from the Red Sox’ perspective, but after two straight losing seasons, the Sox have tickets to sell, and Kimbrel will help sell them. For the Red Sox, prospects like Margot and Guerra were best viewed as trade chips.
Stonehands
I am still not a huge fan of the package we gave up, but DD had to do something. Also, I doubt this is the only major trade we make. If we sign an ace, that means the rotation looks as follows
Ace
Buchholz
E-Rod
Porcello
Miley
Owens
Johnson
Kelly
Wright
I understand you can never have enough pitching, and even stashing Johnson and Owens in the minors while moving kelly to the pen is plausible, It could be just as useful to stash 2 of Owens/Johnson/Wright/Kelly in AAA and trade two starters to fill other needs or recoup some of the prospect loss from the Kimbrel deal.
I’d like to see a package around Miley or Owens to go acquire an OF, or use 1 of them to ditch Hanley
R.D.
Panda has had steadily declining stats while Hanley seemingly had a down year, I’d hope Boston looks at pawning Pablo first.
Stonehands
Pablo at least has a position, although I see way more opportunities to dump him. Maybe Boston matches up with LAD? I could see a Pablo for Ethier with a B prospect or 2 following Pablo over to LA, or a few million bucks
mack22 2
Don’t count on that one
Stonehands
I am Certainly not, but LAD has taken on salary before just to get some decent prospects so it isn’t out of the realm of possibility
Houcorrea
I don’t see the Red Sox giving up Owens just to ditch Hanley
hojo20
Can’t blame them for giving up Margot and Guerra. They have good, young players in the OF and SS at the major league level. But this is a massive overpay. Two top-100 prospects for a 60IP/year reliever who, at best, will get you 3 WAR? Those guys could have been used to get Boston a more significant piece(s).
PhilliesPhan08
3 WAR is pretty good…
hojo20
Yes, I agree. But 3 WAR is what he had in his very best season in ATL. Which was ridiculous and not very likely to be replicated. Kimbrel is an excellent relief pitcher. But to give up that package for a relief pitcher is way too much, especially when that same package would net you a much more valuable SP or position player.
Donnie B
He had a 1.4 WAR last year, 2.2 WAR in 2014 and 2013…. you have to go back 4 years since he was a 3 WAR player… He’s more the 1.5-2.0 WAR guy than a 3 anymore… They truly overpaid for him, and will continue to deplete their stacked farm system now that they have a GM that has no problems giving top prospects away.
hojo20
Exactly. Even if Kimbrel returns to peak form (unlikely), he’s still only worth 3 WAR. That’s your best case scenario. As you said, he’ll probably give you about 1.5 – 2 WAR. For that package, the Sox should have received much more value.
Meow Meow
I’m excited about Kimbrel, but it really feels like DD gave up too much for him, especially since the Sox are on the hook for his whole $12mil annual salary. It seems like there’s no reason both Margot and Guerra had to be in the deal.
Stonehands
I completely agree! I said that last night and all the responses to me were blinded by the big name acquisition and not looking at the cost
Brett M. 2
All of these prospects were blocked for the most part. Mookie and Xander are only a couple of years older than the players given up. Is it alot to give up for a closer? Yes, was it worth it, yes. Sox still have a great farm system.
Stonehands
I think determining whether it is worth it is really dependent on the rest of the offseason, another arm still needs to be added, both to the front of the rotation and to the bullpen, and the lineup needs to be tweaked, and not we have less bullets to accomplish those things because we overpaid to fill one void. I may reconsider if DD can dump one or both of Pablo or Hanley, find a power hitting option to join the lineup, and land the arms necessary without killing the rest of the farm, I am just saying there were other ways to improve a bullpen that would have been more efficient in terms of cost
Brett M. 2
What would have been your suggestion then? Of course there is risk. But what are you implying be done differently? Honest question.
Stonehands
There are plenty of different answers, and if that was seriously the cheapest we could have gotten Kimbrel for, then make a trade for a less proven arm like Giles, who probably would’ve cost one of the two prospects given up and higher quality secondary pieces, and go sign 1 of O’day, Soria, or any other proven arm off the FA market. That would have left us that 1 extra piece to trade for an ace, but now any trade for a TOR arm would surely require one of Moncada, Devers, Benintendi or Espinoza, or someone off the ML roster
mookiessnarl
The thing is it’s easy to speculate Giles would have been cheaper but it’s possible and even likely Dombrowski inquired about him and didn’t like the price. And it’s also possible and likely that Dombrowski already looked into trading for an ace and that wasn’t going to happen with this package or this package plus one piece. It’s also likely that the Padres were taking bids from several teams for Kimbrel and really had to be wowed to move him this quickly in the off season. It’s more than I’d like to pay but the Padres weren’t going to wait around forever. The extra piece provides peace of mind to an area of the team that was abysmal last season so they can focus on a starter or another bullpen piece. And let’s not forget Kimbrel can be QOed when he leaves returning that extra piece to the team.
Stonehands
You and I went back and forth about this yesterday, and while I agree with the move on a philosophical level, I just think there were dozens of other ways to fix the bullpen which could have been more cost-effective. It really all depends on the contingency moves DD pulls off.
Soxfan912
Stonehands. I do agree that they could have fixed the bullpen much cheaper by doing it in free agency, however considering the guys they have up were still in single A and the guy they for back is widely considered the best closer in baseball, I think it is a trade worth making. Ps are you uncle benjen?
Meow Meow
For me it’s even less about giving them up as potential future Sox players and more about giving them up as trade chips. Sox have other needs that could be addressed by trade, and 4 of our top 30 prospects are already gone for a relief pitcher.
adyo4552
You undersell him as “a relief pitcher”. He is an all-star caliber shut-down closer at the peak of his ability and has team control for 3 years. How can you watch the playoffs lately and not realize the tremendous impact of such an arm?
Donnie B
When was the last time a Playoff Team had an Elite Closer?
Question is, what playoffs were you watching?
The last “Elite” closer that meant anything in the Playoffs was Mariano Rivera.
The 2015 World Series Teams:
Royals were forced to use their set-up man.Davis.
Mets used a Starter converted to Closer.
thecoffinnail
I would consider the Dodgers Jansen to be elite and he was in the playoffs. Wade Davis is a shutdown reliever in his own right and would be the chosen closer for 25 or so other teams. Saying he is not elite because he isn’t the anointed closer is akin to saying Betances isn’t elite because Miller is the Yankees closer. He will be the Royals closer next year. Also don’t forget Mariano was a starter converted to closer. If you have any questions about the importance of a shutdown elite closer just ask any Tigers fan to answer them for you.
Retiredjohn
Gave up a ton
ianthomasmalone
One question that needs to be asked is whether or not ownership is willing to go past the luxury tax. If not, Kimbrel was an unnecessary acquisition.
Stonehands
At this point don’t you think they have to be? DD is already talking about dishing out a big contract to an ace in free agency, that will make them blow past the luxury tax threshold unless somehow 1 or 2 of Porcello, Buccholz, Miley are dumped
Meow Meow
Given the outstanding needs, I have a hard time believing that we got a $12mil closer if there isn’t a willingness to exceed the luxury tax
Draven Moss
This move would be so silly if they didn’t plan to blow by the luxury tax threshold. I think it is quite obvious that they are willing to go significantly over at this point.
donniebaseball
I honestly thought it was a fair trade. I’d expect the Red Sox to chase after price so they don’t have to give up their #12 pick
Stonehands
Price is a possibility. but I am not completely convinced DD has the go=head tp just drop $30 mil AAV on Price, Henry might be open to loosening the purse strings, but that might be in spending $60-80 million less and nab Cueto. Either way, we will find out soon enough
onlyringsmatter
He must have.DD would never have taken the job if Henry was still calling shots 100%
bruinsfan94 2
What? Of course he would and did. The owners always have a final say. There is a difference between Cherginton taking the final call from DD and DD taking the final call from Henry. Henry is the owner. He controls everything.
onlyringsmatter
final say yes but not complete control over what he does
Stonehands
Yeah, anything that has to do with the OWNER paying up taxes on overages is bound to get his attention and require his input…
bruinsfan94 2
What? Henry Has complete control of everything. Of course he is not doing to day to day stuff involving baseball but he has the exact same amount of say now as he had 6 months ago and 6 six years ago.
Stonehands
I know. I was defending your point…
bruinsfan94 2
I pretty much agree.I think the Sox probably gave up a bit much, but thats more because I just don’t have much value in the closer postion. I think this is a trade you make when everything else is set. I think they will go hard for Price or Cueto. I think they will also look to add some more nice bullpen pieces like O day.
onlyringsmatter
I honesty hope that DD is bluffing about not making another trade.I still think Sox need 2 pitchers at the front of that rotation.I only trust E-Rod there and nobody else
Stonehands
Two pitchers in the rotation? That might be a bit much. Miley is a fine #4 or 5, E-Rod seems a lock for the 3 slot, and Buccholz and is a very good #2 for about 130 innings. We have the depth to put up with his injuries too. Adding a second SP on top of an ace would mean we have to find a way to send out 3-4 SPs currently on the roster
Draven Moss
Just trade Miley and then it is done. The rotation then is:
Acquisition
Acquisition
Buchholz
Rodriguez
Porcello
Some of the depth would likely be traded in the trade for another starting pitcher so all problems are solved. I think if they go in 2016 with only one guy atop the rotation, we could be setting ourselves up for failure. I don’t think we can rely on Buchholz being a #2 due to inconsistency and I don’t think we can rely on Porcello bouncing back to be anything more than a #3. Two guys atop the rotation gives the Red Sox a fantastic opportunity to compete and go deep in the playoffs.
Stonehands
Porcello and Kelly both ptiched well in the 2nd half of last year, even if one of them continued that it would be Ace/Buch/E-Rod/Porcello or Kelly/Miley or Owens. I honestly am content with that so long as the bullpen adds another arm
Draven Moss
I’m fine with that too. I’m just saying that there is ways to improve it further that doesn’t cause the roster to be cluttered. Also, Kelly better not be in the rotation next year. Sure, he pitched well down the stretch, but all his peripherals were about the same, suggesting that he was getting bad luck at the beginning of the year, while having great luck near the end. He is what he is at this point and that is probably a #4/#5 starter. It is much better to keep Miley in that case and see if Kelly can develop into something better in the bullpen.
Stonehands
While I agree on Kelly up to this point, who would that second starter be and what would you expect the package to consist of? Cause from where I’m standing, 2 FA acquisitions would mean we have over $80mil in the rotation, and an additional add to the rotation via trade is going to put another big dent in the farm, which I would not be comfortable with if the names being floated around were Moncada, Devers, Espinoza, or Benintendi
Draven Moss
Yeah, it is difficult from a financial and prospect cost point of view. Tyson Ross would’ve been an intriguing name, but trading with the Padres is unlikely now after just dealing with them. I like Quintana from the White Sox but he is going to cost a lot. I’m not sure if we could make a trade work without giving up Devers honestly. Maybe picking up Samardzija somewhat cheaply could be a intriguing option? Of course, he might never rebound and that is still quite a bit of money.
Stonehands
If DD can find a deal that can revolve around dealing from excess like he did for Kimbrel, then I could see it happen, butI don’t think you can find a pairing with a team that will give up a proven top of the rotation starter for B prospects and backend pitching excess
thecoffinnail
Agreed. Kelly/Uehara/Kimbrel would be a solid back end to the bullpen. Kelly should be given a full year in the pen so he can build confidence and refine his game. It worked well for Samardzija at the beginning of his mlb career. Kelly has the talent and imo just lacks the mental makeup to be a TOR pitcher. A year in the pen might fix that. Whatever they do with him they need to stop flip flopping him back and forth. That can’t be very helpful.
marucci19
I would trade Pablo he’s overrated, put hanley on 3rd he can easily handle 3rd
Stonehands
Yeah he easily handled 3rd in LAD, I bet he could easily go back to it after his amazing showing in the outfield!
rmullig2
You have to have somebody willing to take him to make a trade. As Schilling said they would have to eat ~90% of the contract to dot that. Ownership would never approve it.
jrwhite21
I would be wary of everything that came out of that lunatics mouth
picklesniffer
What is the point of trading top prospects for a closer when youre not going to be competitive? Also, I highly doubt a closer is going to sell anymore tickets for the Red Sox.
bruinsfan94 2
Why would you think they won’t be competitive? They are just starting this offseason and already have a sweet core.
Randy Jay Pena
Not a big fan of this trade at all, I’m glad the Sox got Kimbrel but the package was just too high. I just hope this trade doesn’t end up like the Andrew Bailey trade where the Sox gave up pretty good prospects for only for him to failed.
gomerhodge71
Agree that the “give” was a little high, but Bailey wasn’t a “classic” closer, nor was Joel Hanrahan. Kimbrel is one of the best. Naturally, he could implode in the A.L., but after watching Boston constantly blow late inning leads, DD had to do this.
danray13
Red soxs and David price lol. Price would never go there.
Stonehands
I could think of over 200 million reasons for him to go there if DD decides he wants him…
rmullig2
I think he would need 220 million reasons to go there.
Randy Jay Pena
the Sox should’ve just made a bigger trade with the Padres. With that package on top of Sandoval and Buchholz, we could’ve probably gotten Shields, Ross and Kimbrel. Now lets say that trade did go down and they got all 3 but then went onto sign Cueto since that’s more realistic since he doesn’t cost a draft pick or a lot of money. Cueto will be number 1, Ross 2, Shields 3, E-Rod 4, and Porcello at 5. That rotation would be great plus a rebuilding BP with Tazawa the 7th inning guy then Koji to setup and Kimbrel to close it out. Too bad it didn’t happen that way but a person can dream right?
arc89
No way anyone will trade for Panda right now. His contract is a big black hole. Trading Panda and the difference in money to the Padres for Shields would have been a good deal for both teams. Shields would give the bosox a good #4 starter and Holt could take over at 3rd.
bobbleheadguru
Panda for VMART would work. However, you would have to get a rules change for VMART to use a stool as a part time catcher.
donniebaseball
Tigers don’t make that trade even if there is a gun to their head. Victor was hurt last year, and is one year removed from a .330/.409/.565 campaign. Pablo was terrible last year and has no excuse
Randy Jay Pena
You add that big package the Sox traded for Kimbrel plus Sandoval and Buchholz for those 3 why not? You’re trading a big contract for another and the Sox do need starting pitchers and Shields would’ve fit the bill had DD offer Sandoval.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Stop trying to make Panda for Shields happen. It’s not going to happen!
donniebaseball
Panda had a terrible year last year, where as shields had a decent one. Padres don’t make that trade even if the salaries are even
baumer16
I laughed when I read about this hypothetical trade. Hilarious
rmullig2
There is no chance the Padres give up Shields and Ross for Sandoval and Bucholz. Nobody would take a package of Sandoval and Bucholz for a broken bat and used rosin bag.
Randy Jay Pena
I didn’t even said only for those 2 players read it again. I said that package that they traded for Kimbrel plus Sandoval and Buchholz. So 6 players for 3.
arc89
Still would be a very bad trade for the Padres. Padres are in the process of getting rid of money. Ross is more valuable since Bucholz is injury prone starter.
chesteraarthur
Yes you did. Since the trade that occurred already was just for Kimbrel, adding panda and bucholtz and adding ross and shields is the equivalent of just saying bucholtz and panda for ross and shields.
hojostache
Panda has a negative valuevw his albatross contract.
Niekro
Any indication on what the Reds were asking for Chapman or were the Red Sox simply negotiating on both at the same time?
bobbleheadguru
One year of Chapman v. Three years of Kimbrel. The price tag should be much less for Chapman.
Niekro
Which makes me think the Reds were asking too much for the Red Sox to go straight to Kimbrel seemingly over night and pay this much.
bobbleheadguru
Interesting. DD may have overvalued Kimbrel because of the outrageous demands of the Reds… which motivated San Diego to quickly say yes before DD changed his mind.
Fister 2.0?
donniebaseball
Dombrowski knew what he was doing.
hojostache
I wish that would be the case, but CIN has been militant about what they’d accept.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Don’t forget a club option on the fourth year
Stuart Brown
By much less, I think you just remove Margot or Guerra. Which is arguably a lot, but you’re still going to give up 3 top 30 prospects to get Chapman.
bobbleheadguru
Tigers could use Porcello and he would be a better fit with a fanbase that does not hate him because of his crazy salary.
Also, DD is probably very sour about that contract because he himself refused to pay Porcello even 50% of that contract value and instead traded him for Cespedes and Wilson and Speier.
What would be a fair deal?
Stonehands
You eat all the cash and promise not to give him back
bobbleheadguru
Sorry!
I stated that the Tigers (lead by DD at the time) refused to even give a contract that had HALF the value of the Crazy Red Sox Deal. Why would they want to overpay a #4/5 starter now?
All that being stated, the Tigers would welcome him back if the Red Sox ate 1/2 or more of his dollars.
Stonehands
Oh I thought you were asking what Detroit would need to offer to get him, but yeah at that point DD should keep him
ASapsFables
The Red Sox are clearly in pursuit one of the top 3 free agent aces in this season’s market. All things being relatively equal financially, in my opinion:
1-David Price signs with the Cubs, reuniting with his former manager Joe Maddon who had enough confidence in the budding prospect to make him the Tampa Bay closer in the team’s 2008 run to their only World Series appearance after his late season promotion to the MLB roster.
2-Zack Greinke re-signs with the Dodgers and finishes his career in the N.L. and a pitcher-friendly park.
3-Johnny Cueto signs with the Red Sox for significantly less dollars than either Price and Greinke, giving Boston a much needed power pitching ace in Fenway and allowing Boston to pursue an additional #3 or #4 starter in FA or trade.
All three teams get what they want and none has to forfeit a draft pick in compensation with Greinke, the only one with a qualifying offer, re-upping with the Dodgers.
Stonehands
Why exactly does Boston need ANOTHER #3 or 4 starter when we have 8 of them?
ASapsFables
Perhaps there are free agents (like Samardzija, Leake, Kazmir, Kennedy) and allegedly available pitchers in trade (Ross, Quintana, Carrasco) who might be deemed as mid-level rotation upgrades over the “8” you claim Boston already possesses.
I doubt the Red Sox will be satisfied with just one addition to their rotation this off-season.
Stonehands
Of that group, E-Rod and Buccholz are either better than (Samardzija, Kennedy) or more cost-effective either in terms of dollars or prospective prospects in trade. An ace is a clear cut need, but take your pick of Buccholz, Porcello, Miley, Owens, E-Rod, Kelly, Johnson or Wright to make out the rest of the rotation. Yes, trading a couple is an option, but we already need to get rid of 1-2 of them as is.
ASapsFables
There’s nothing wrong with slotting Eduardo Rodriguez and Clay Buchholz behind your new ace (Cueto?) and then upgrading the #4 slot from among the pitchers I suggested. It’s not like the Red Sox didn’t have injury issues with their rotation last season, especially with Buchholz. A little added quality depth wouldn’t hurt.
Boston has more ammo than most teams to acquire another solid mid-level starter who might be deemed better than your remaining 5 or 6. They might now be able to trade quantity in exchange for one more quality starter and consider re-stocking their farm system with additional talent after losing 4 top 30 prospects in their trade for Greg Kimbrel. Depending on who the additional 2 new starters might be, they could better mix and match rhp pitcher Buchholz with the two holdover southpaws, Rodriguez and Wade Miley.
A potential rotation of…
1-Cueto (rhp)
2-Rodriguez (lhp)
3-Buchholz (rhp)
4-Ross (rhp)
5-Miley (lhp)
…sounds pretty good (and balanced!) to me…and I’m not even a Red Sox fan. (lol)
Btw-As a White Sox fan, it seems to me that Boston and Chicago might match up well in a trade involving potentially available southpaw starter Jose Quintana this off-season.
Chicago is two years into a retool and considers itself on the cusp of contention with a young core of players that includes ace Chris Sale, Carlos Rodon, Jose Abreu and Adam Eaton, along with some other controllable veterans like closer David Robertson and Melky Cabrera. The White Sox primary needs would be at 3B and C, neither position teeming with FA options, along with a corner OF with power.
As possible contenders, they would be looking more for a young MLB ready core type piece and not at an expensive, short term veteran stop gap. Quintana himself would normally be considered a foundation piece with a long term, team friendly contract in place but young starting pitching is one of the clubs few areas of depth and “Q” would be the most likely trade asset used to fill a position of need this off-season.
In your opinion, what does Boston have available that would constitute a fair and realistic trade, one that might tempt Chicago to move Quintana to Boston?
Stonehands
And what happens to Porcello? Can’t really forget about $22 million. I get the point and I am not against it, I am just against the cost it would take when the rotation is respectable after an ace is added
ASapsFables
Fair enough.
After adding an ace pitcher, you feel the Red Sox are good enough to be serious World Series contenders with a rotation consisting of the remaining holdovers.
Why not, I suppose? After all, the Royals won a title with less a lot less in their rotation.
Time will tell. We’ll find out shortly just how new President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski assesses the situation. He’s off to good start thus far with the acquisition of closer Greg Kimbrel. His addition will surely fortify the back end of the Red Sox bullpen for years to come, moving incumbent 40 year old veteran Koji Uehara into a role as setup man for 2016. The Red Sox now have a bullpen approaching that of the hated Yankees and one that may also match the champion Royals, with another addition or two.
thecoffinnail
It will take more than an addition or two to equal the Yankees or Royals bp but Kimbrel is definitely a step in the right direction.
Draven Moss
I’m curious, as a Red Sox fan, what you would deem fair for Quintana? I’ve suggested Swihart, Marrero and a lottery ticket before but at this point, that seems unlikely and it probably isn’t enough. Would Vazquez, Shaw and JBJ have appeal to them? Would switching Swihart out for those three make any sense? Like I said before, that still mightn’t be enough but anymore than that and I think the Red Sox would pass after making the Kimbrel trade. And Miley would likely have to be moved somewhere in a trade too since Porcello is definitely sticking in the rotation.
thecoffinnail
Swihart would definitely have to be included imo. Why not just add Miley to Swihart, Marrero and a lottery ticket? That should be enough to get it done.
donniebaseball
Don’t sleep on the Giants… They outbid the cubs for Lester. They’re going for one of the big 3
aprogie
We also gotta remember : they are just prospects. We got a proven all star closer. Two of the players traded are just 19.
dlevin11
Panda would be a prime candidate for July deadline trade. He needs to lose between 25 to 30 pounds and get in shape first. The Giants tried to get him slimmed down too.
hojostache
lol…good luck w that. Panda has been on a rapid decline and I doubt he’ll be able to drop that amount of weight.
rmullig2
Why would he lose weight? There is no weight clause in his contract and its guaranteed for four more years. If they want him to lose weight they will have to make it worth his while.
jakesaub
My take on this trade is that the Padres did more better (?) than the Red Sox did worse. Margot and Guerra are legitimate talents that the Padres got out of a reliever, and in doing so, they won their side of the trade. But from Boston’s perspective, SS and OF are two spots where they have plenty of young depth, so Margot and Guerra are worth more to the Padres than they are to the Red Sox. I think this is a move that will work out well for both teams involved.
Steve_in_MA
I strongly disagree with the suggestion that we will or should stop acquiring pitching by “trading.” There are only 4 starting pitchers out there that have no Q/O attached to them that would qualify for front of the rotation status. Cueto, Price and Kazmir are the 3 who are most desirable of that group of 4. That’s way too limiting, and its also ridiculous to have a huge pile of superlative prospects just toiling away in our farm system. We need to make one more blockbuster trade for a starting pitcher. Empty out another 4 or 5 prospects and persuade someone to deal to us. Then, go out and sign O’Day as an F/A and we are all set for Spring Training.
jmi1950
When people talk about these prospects they forget all the “can’t miss” untouchables who missed. Wil Middlebrooks & Ryan Lavarnway? Lars Anderson & Michael Bowden? Even Cecchini & Brentz have slipped down the prospect list.
harmony55
Does San Diego’s trade of Craig Kimbrel to Boston for Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra, Logan Allen and Carlos Asuaje bear any resemblance to the February 2008 trade of lefthander Erik Bedard from Baltimore to Seattle for Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherrill, Kam Mickolio and Tony Butler?
Bedard, who came with two years of team control for combined $14.75 million, had increased his fWAR from 2.5 to 3.4 to 4.5 to 5.0 the four previous seasons:
fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?pl … position=P
At the time of the trade, Adam Jones was a year older than Manuel Margot is now and, unlike Margot, was considered MLB-ready. In Baseball America’s preseason prospect rankings, Jones was No. 64 as a 20-year-old in 2006 and No. 28 as a 21-year-old in 2007, while Margot was No. 72 as a 20-year-old in 2015 and No. 24 on BA’s midseason list this year.
Following the trade, Chris Tillman was BA’s 67th-ranked preseason prospect just shy of his 20th birthday in 2008 and the 22nd-ranked prospect a year later. Baseball America has never ranked Javier Guerra but MLB.com Prospect Watch currently has the 20-year-old Guerra No. 76 on its prospect list.
In the Kimbrel trade, the Red Sox did not include lefthander Tommy Layne, who would be the equivalent of Sherrill in age, production and years of service.
The initial reaction to the Kimbrel trade just reminded this Seattle fan of the early reaction to the Bedard trade.
jmi1950
For every Adam Jones there are a dozen Lar Andersons & Ryan Lavarnway’s; for every Chris Tillman there are 2 dozen Michael Bowdens. All untouchable until no one wanted them. Even Middlebrooks went down to near zero before they traded him.
bradthebluefish
Could’ve had O’Day for the same price as Kimbrel’s contract. However, it seems like the Red Sox will focus on signing an ace so trading blocked prospects for a young, elite closer makes sense in those regards.
thecoffinnail
Could have just resigned Miller last year. I was expecting them to go after him hard. He didn’t exactly break the bank when he signed with the Yankees.