We often hear talk of which team “won” a trade, despite the fact that most deals are driven at least as much by organizational need as they are asset valuation. Truthfully, assessing a swap from that perspective alone is rarely sufficient and often misleading. That being said, it can be an interesting exercise to focus purely on value, especially when a deal involves long-term assets on both sides.
That’s the way this poll will approach the recent trade between the Braves and Angels. Let’s break down the contractual assets that changed hands:
Angels Receive
- Andrelton Simmons, 26, SS — Controlled for five years with $53MM guaranteed. Arguably the game’s best defensive player, Simmons has historically been merely an average hitter for his position. He has shown some power (17 home runs in 2013), though, arguably making him a high-floor player with upside.
- Jose Briceno, 23, C — The backstop, seemingly a minor part of the deal, has yet to advance into the upper minors and struggled last year at the High-A level.
Braves Receive
- Sean Newcomb, 22, LHP — Rising prospect with 6+ years of control available who pitched at Double-A level last year. The power southpaw has significant upside but has battled control issues.
- Chris Ellis, 23, RHP — Fast-moving college arm who could contribute at the back of a rotation. He also reached Double-A in 2015 and can be controlled for 6+ seasons in majors.
- Erick Aybar, 31, SS — Entering his final year of control at a $8.5MM salary, Aybar could be an underappreciated part of this deal. He’s a quality veteran infielder coming off of a down year, but with a history of sturdy defense, good speed, and an above-average bat for a shortstop. He could also become a trade chip this winter or at the trade deadline.
- $2.5MM (representing difference between 2016 salaries of Simmons and Aybar)
Both organizations have new general managers who went out on a limb, in different ways, to strike this deal. And both talked about the value proposition that they faced (in addition to considerations of organizational need).
Angels GM Billy Eppler has many roster holes to fill, and could easily have relied on Aybar, but explained that the trade presented a rare chance to add a top-quality defender at the game’s most important position in the field. “When you have an opportunity, you do it,” he said. “The free agent market does not generally offer a plentiful amount of shortstops. It was a supply-and-demand equation.” Only that kind of premium ability could justify giving up Newcomb’s huge arm, per Eppler, who said that doing so “gives you a lot of pause and makes your stomach hurt a little bit.”
For Braves GM John Coppolella, meanwhile, there were also references to the need to seize an opportunity to acquire hard-to-get assets at an appealing price. “It’s a very tough trade, and a painful trade for us,” he said. “We didn’t want to trade Andrelton Simmons. But we felt this was too good for us to pass up. We felt like we were getting so much talent back in this deal, that if we didn’t make this trade, it would be very tough for us to keep going forward with our plans.” He went on to discuss the importance of Aybar to the swap, noting that the deal was not “some kind of prospect trade,” but rather “was a value-for-value trade that had two really good prospects in it.”
So, both general managers felt so torn about the deal that their comments referenced pain (physical or otherwise). Yet both also saw a value proposition that was simply too good to pass up. The Halos pulled the trigger even though they already had a good shortstop in place for 2016 and will have rotation openings thereafter. And the rebuilding Braves made the deal despite Simmons’ youth and control, not to mention the fact that they have already built a stable of young pitching through other trades.
We’ll have to wait to see how things play out, of course, but it’s still fun to ask: if you were forced to take one side of this deal, from a pure value perspective (i.e., ignoring team-specific context), which one would you take?
grantr
I’m absolutely stunned that voters favour the Braves side of this trade. Logic and statistics simply don’t support that point of view.
Braves Fan 2
My guess is because of time-zone differences. Most Braves fans are already up and going, where the Halo fans are just waking up…
bjsguess
This. I was shocked. I assume that there are more Braves fans on this site as well.
I can’t find ANYONE at the national level who loved this trade for the Braves. Everyone either calls this a huge win for the Halos or a push at worst.
This takes nothing away from Newcombe who could turn out to be very, very good (assuming he can find the strike zone). However, a glove like Simmons comes along once in a generation. Even with a terrible bat he has tremendous value. If his bat improves (look at the batting profile of Ozzie Smith) he could routinely end up being a 5 fWAR player. That’s $40M in annual value for about $10M in actual salary.
RunDMC
11.1 SO/9 during his 150.1 IP in the minors. I know his walks are high, but that’s pretty good for someone that can’t find the strike zone.
bjsguess
To be honest I love Newcomb. I think he could be very, very good. I was disappointed that he was moved. That said, there are plenty of reasons to be worried about his future. He is not a “safe” prospect. He carries more upside than many of his prospect peers but the error bars are also very high.
He can’t find the strike zone. Yes, he K’s people but his BB9 rate was 5.0 last year (spread between A, AA, and a few starts in AAA). To put that in perspective, that’s a full 1 BB/9 higher than ANY qualifying starter in the bigs this year. That is a huge point. You simply cannot be an effective starter with BB rates like that (unless you are Nolan Ryan).
If you expand to guys who are relievers, you see similar control problems coupled with big K numbers. John Axford was the wildest at 5.17 BB9 but he also struck out 10 per 9 (just shy of what Newcomb did). Other players with 4.75+ BB9 and 10+ K9 include Juan Nicasio, Mike Dunn, and Jake Diekman. Not exactly a standout collection of arms … even for relievers.
Long story short – Newcomb has to find his control. If he can do that AND keep his K’s high AND keep suppressing hits he can be an incredibly effective starter. That’s a lot of “if’s” but it’s certainly possible.
Slipknot37
I honestly thought the braves got the better side of the trade. They got a shortstop and top two pitching prospects. I’m not even an angels or braves fan. In fact, I hate the braves.
Meow Meow
Aybar almost doesn’t deserve consideration in the evaluation of this deal, imo. He’s purely a one-year stopgap for a team that’s basically already conceded 2016 in a trade that was otherwise about the future for them.
RunDMC
Not much, but a 2014 All-Star with a decent glove and some offense, plus he has a great reputation. No, he won’t fetch a great prospect, but he could be flipped for something at the AS Break, barring any setbacks. Could easily see him look more like 2014 than 2015 in the NL.
rct
You’re giving up five years of Simmons. If Aybar can put up 3-ish WAR (Simmons is typically 3.5 WAR), then you’re basically only giving up four years of Simmons.
Edit: I should say that I don’t expect Aybar to produce that much, but he’s capable of it. It’s a gamble, sure. Just sort of trying to illustrate that Aybar should be considered when evaluating this.
Ray Ray
The Braves got a very good SS along with two good pitching prospects for an elite defensive/middling offensive SS and a nothing minor leaguer. So they took a small step down at one position and gained two other potentially good-great players in the deal. How does logic not support that point of view?
kingjenrry
The Braves got 1 year of a roughly equivalent SS and 2 extremely risky prospects for 5 years of an established, elite defensive player playing the second most important defensive position on the field.
nookster
Well then I dispute your logic, and considering the final outcome is dependent on the prospects involved, I wonder about your statistics. If the Halos felt they needed a SS so badly going forward, they should have focused on acquiring Baez. He’s much cheaper going forward, and can at least change the outcome of a game with one swing.
Pitching and defense. And pitching is tougher to find. The Braves have acquired so much young pitching talent, that they are bound to assemble a Mets-like starting rotation.
Fans will be fanatics, and emotional about the players on their team. Braves fans were emotional about Simmons. I think it’s probably the cumulative effect of all the players that have been sent packing.
grantr
The outcome is always dependent on prospects, but sites like fangraphs have associated dollar values for prospects in certain ranges and if you use them then the Braves come out way behind in this trade.
Sure, maybe Newcomb becomes a great pitcher, but a team that consistently takes bad risks will always lose in the long run.
Your ‘logic’ is based on conjecture and false narratives and really isn’t logic at all.
RunDMC
What is a bad risk? We have Albies coming up at SS and Newcomb/Ellis adds to a stash of arms that can be used for another need. Yes, Simmons saves runs but we need offensive help and can sacrifice some defensive runs saved. Is it really conjecture when you’re not informed of how the deal fully impacts the organization?
grantr
I’m perfectly aware of the Braves situation. Albies isn’t going to make in impact in 2016 and may not at all, so there was really no impetus to give up a significant chunk of value right now.
Thinking that a run scored is more important than a run saved just shows your naivety in this type of discussion in my opinion.
bjsguess
Statistics …
Simmons posted 3.2 fWAR last year. He’s projected (Steamer) to post 3.5fWAR in 2016. His light bat generated an 82wRC+ in 2015 and is projected to improve to 89 in 2016.
Aybar posted 1.0 fWAR last year. He’s projected to posted 1.4 fWAR in 2016. He actually hit WORSE than Simmons in 2015 managing just an 80 wRC+ and is projected improve a bit to 86 in 2016.
So Simmons was worth over THREE times the contribution that Aybar made in 2015. He is projected to more than DOUBLE the contribution of Aybar in 2016.
Not that should equate WAR to wins directly but it is very interesting to me that the Angels lost a playoff opportunity by 1 win in 2015. Had this trade been made last off-season it’s entirely possible that the Angels are the wildcard and possibly the division winner. The gap is that big between Simmons and Aybar.
Ray Ray
Quite frankly, projections are worthless. They might be educated guesses, but they are still guesses nonetheless. Additionally, an 82 and an 80 wRC are within the same standard deviation. They are basically the same statistically.
The last argument is just ridiculous. Stats are not put up in a vacuum. If the trade was made last season, both players statistics would be completely different because they would have been in different situations. They would have faced different pitchers and had different balls hit to them. The outcomes would not have been the same.
bjsguess
I’m sorry to hear that you believe projections are worthless. I’m fairly certain that every major league team would disagree. They are not perfect and certainly there is some variability but to call them worthless is a stretch IMO.
I do agree with that Aybar and Simmons are virtually identical in offense. I was suggesting, that counter to the commentary I’ve heard here and elsewhere, that the Braves were trading away a glove for a bat. My point was that Simmons was at least equal to Aybar offensively and in some ways, superior offensively.
Finally, as I stated, you cannot equate WAR to wins. Of course, we all know that. However, it is a common tool to see how teams stack up by swapping WAR values when players move. It’s far from an exact science but it’s not a stretch to suggest that had Simmons been an Angel in 2015 they could have had an entirely different outcome. This is a big upgrade for the Angels.
kingjenrry
There’s a huge difference in the Mets’ and Braves’ strategies. The Mets have been going after hard-throwing guys with strong command and control, leading to a group of pitchers (Harvey/deGrom/Syndergaard/Matz) who started pitching at an above average level pretty much immediately after entering the big leagues. The Braves, on the other hand, have been going after hard throwers with terrible command and control – a much riskier strategy.
Put another way, the Mets’ projected #4 starter, Steve Matz, is arguably better than any pitcher, prospect or otherwise, in the Braves’ entire organization. That includes Teheran and Miller.
thecoffinnail
Wheeler should return fairly early in 2016 and I would assume that he would push Mats to the #5 slot. That would only strengthen your argument seeing as the Mets #5 would be the Braves #2 next year (possibly #1). He came up midseason and clearly had more upside than any of the Braves rookie starters. I would argue that Newcombe has the ceiling that Matz has. The Mets are far and away superior in their trades as they turned a half season of Beltran and an aging knuckleballer for Wheeler and Thor.
RunDMC
As a Braves fan, I’m factoring in getting their top-2 overall prospects, Newcomb will become our top overall prospect in a loaded farm, getting Aybar, which in my opinion is a slight upgrade offensively, and still above-average defensively, who could also warrant something at the Deadline, and savings on Simmons’s (good) deal. Yes, I’ll miss the highlights and tenacity, love his contact rate, but Fredi never allowed him to fit into the order – though I’m encouraged by the steps he took with hitting coach Kevin Seitzer in 2015. Hope he continues to excel, but I really hope we have a frontline starter in Newcomb.
bravesred 2
Aybar had a negative in UZR and UZR/150 last season. How is that above-average defensively? Simmons is also worth more, according to fangraphs. Simmons also had a better year offensively than Aybar.
ssimplisticness
Can you please explain what you mean by “logic and statistics simply don’t support that point of view”?
To make such a definitive statement, I’m assuming you consider yourself to be of the highest intellect. You clearly believe you are more intelligent than people who are paid to make these kind of decisions for a living. You must be among the front office or scouting department of some team, right? I can’t imagine you’d try to deem something illogical based purely off your own unqualified opinion. So please clarify your comment and expound upon your argument as to why “logic and statistics simply don’t support that point of view”. Please amuse me, sir.
grantr
Fans vote on this poll so we use statistics that are available to fans and derive logical conclusions based on those statistics. There’s some merit to blindly following a front office’s decisions if they have a track record of identifying players that are undervalued (Cardinals and Rays, for example), but I don’t think that the Braves front office crew should merit that type of response from fans at this time. The statistical facts are already in the comments from myself and others, while all arguments on the Braves side are vague constructs like ‘needing offense more than defense’ and ‘rebuilding so they should sell Simmons at a discount’, which I find foolish. I’m guessing you’ll respond with something along those lines, or not at all.
ssimplisticness
Nowhere in this response or past responses have you provided any additional information to support your argument. All you’ve done is respond condescendingly towards the other posters who don’t agree with you. So again, please expound upon your earlier comment? I’m simply waiting for you to provide any semblance of substance to support your argument. It’s easy for you to say something is illogical and then not provide the logic behind why it is illogical. So let’s hear it.
Also, simply stating that fangraphs “values” one player higher than another does not make your argument logical. All you’re doing is allowing someone else to think for you.
The only “stats” provided above are comparing Aybar to Simmons, which is completely pointless. Aybar is not the centerpiece of the return, Newcomb is. Heck even Ellis carries more weight in the return than Aybar does. Aybar is merely a stop gap replacement who provides the Braves with a solid SS where they otherwise would’ve had no options with Simmons gone. To be honest, the Braves are most likely hoping Aybar impresses in the first half of the season to increase his value and flip him for more prospects at the deadline. By no means is he a part of their long term plans. With that being said, Aybar is a solid player and although he will not produce defensively as Simmons does(not many can), his offense should be about the same if not slightly better. His production isn’t really worth talking about though, because the trade wasn’t made to receive significant production from him. his production only matters in terms of what the Braves can flip him for at some point(if they can flip him) or receive compensation picks. This trade was about receiving the pitching prospects. If Newcomb develops into the pitcher many believe he will become, then the Braves have a 1 or 2 on their hands. His control’s his biggest issue, but clearly the Braves believe they can help him overcome this apparent shortcoming in order to achieve his potential. Ellis is an intriguing prospect in his own right. He doesn’t have nearly the same potential, but he can maybe top out as a 3(maybe better) if he’s able to solve his own control issues. If the braves believe they can mitigate the control problems these two have, the potential for greatness is there. So the braves are betting on the development of two promising prospects plus whatever they can receive for Aybar versus what is essentially a two tool player in Simmons. His defense is exceptional, possibly second to none. His glove work, arm, and athleticism at the position defensively is outstanding. His offensive tools aren’t much to talk about though. His hit, power, speed/base running tools are all about average at best and most likely aren’t getting any better. So it’s not like he’s an untouchable 5-tool player, he’s not. Maybe they believe his value is currently as high as it’s ever going to be, so they traded him now for the best offer they received.
So the braves traded a great SS for a potential ace, another rotation piece, and possibly other prospects(via aybar). They’re taking a risk in hoping the pitchers reach their potential, but they clearly believe it’s a risk worth taking(reasonably so). The Braves are trying to stockpile as many potentially great arms as possible and hope at least a few of them pan out to mimick their rival Mets(or the 90’s braves). The mets showed that a dominant rotation can carry a team deep into the playoffs. That’s what the braves are hoping to create as they rebuild for the future when their new stadium opens.
kingjenrry
tl;dr?
chicubbies1
.256/.304/.362. That’s Simmons’ MLB line for his career. If I just threw that line out there most people would think those are the stats of a bench player. Simmons. Sucks. At. Hitting. He has no speed and no relevant power (5-10 in a season). He ONLY provides defense. Why are people valuing defense so much? Starlin Castro is an above average offensive SS in his career and when you take range into consideration he’s actually only a slightly below average to average fielding SS. Had Castro just made 6 fewer errors per season (One a month essentially) he’d probably be considered above average on defense, because he has good range. 6 errors.
That’s pretty much what people gripe about over Castro and how he “isn’t worth” his contract which pays him $9.5M on average for the next 4 seasons – his defense. Did Castro have a bad year at the plate in 2015? Yeah, but he rebounded late… and despite his bad year at the plate it was just as good as Simmons’ who is considered to have had a “decent/good” year at the plate.
As opposed to Simmons who can’t do ANYTHING offensively but is a great defender; is getting paid on average $10.8M a season for the next 5 years and he is somehow worth it. Makes no sense. People chastise Castro to death for his below average fielding yet no one is burning Simmons’ at the stake for being one of the worst offensive SS in the game. Again, makes no sense. Wilmer friggin Flores had a better year offensively than Simmons this year. That’s how bad Simmons’ is and this was a good year for Simmons swinging the bat.
So the Braves get a top pitching prospect and the Angels #2 prospect in their system who also happens to be a pitcher. Newcomb projects to be a TOR type pitcher….. so yeah, I’d say the Braves, right now, look better. I voted for “Value is Equivalent” though. If newcomb busts in 2-3 years though the Braves still might look better because their SS prospect in Albies looks to be better than Simmons in all around terms. He should be making his debut in about 3 years….. 2018ish. By that time if Simmons hasn’t improved on offense he might be a bench guy being used as a defensive replacement late in games for the Angels. I find it hard to believe a guy would hold a starting gig when he barely gets on base and owns an OPS in the mid 600s. Baseball players go unemployed because of that lack of production regardless of fielding prowess. See former GG 2Bman Darwin Barney.
jordanjee
This is a hard one. It is obvious that Simmons has the most value in the present. But, Newcomb has tremendous potential and is progressing quickly in the minors. Some scouts have compared his makeup to Jon Lester, while his throwing motion is smooth, increasing his potential for longevity in his career. And yes, he is big. Aybar is a solid defender, despite some big errors last season, and a great leader. He’s one of those players who always seems to be having fun, and respects the game, and that shows in his approach in his game. But, Simmons is obviously an elite defender at a prime position, with a good contract. This deal could end up being huge for both teams, but my vote is the Angels have a slight edge given Aybar’s short-term contract, and that Newcomb isn’t a totally sure thing.
jordanjee
Crap. I forgot about Ellis. Forget everything I said. The braves won this one.
dshires4
With the rate of failure of pitching prospects, I don’t see how th Braves won this deal. Sure, they COULD be 5 WAR pitchers. But history says they won’t be. If at least one of them is, cool, they beat the odds. But Simmons contract, skill set, and position were about as premium as it gets. He doesn’t need to hit to be an asset. It feels like they sold him below his value.
RunDMC
He doesn’t need to hit to be an asset on a team that was dead last in MLB in runs in 2015? I wish we had that luxury. So the front office needs to focus on the 7 other positions to build the offense (1 being the SP)? I like the balance this deal provides. Of course most people are going to vote LAA since this is the immediate payoff and there’s no waiting to see how Newcomb/Ellis will mature, and if Aybar can rebound to his 2014 All-Star status — or what ATL will do with the additional $50M+ in funds saved from Simmons’s deal.
bbritton209
The issue is that we didn’t really save anything with this trade. Simmons’ contract was WIDELY viewed as an incredibly team friendly deal. We had him for (I believe) a hair under $10M a year for the foreseeable future.
Whereas I find that a bit high considering that he is so horrible on the offensive side of the ball, most other GMs would be willing to give him a $15M or greater contract. So we had a VERY good deal with Simmons.
bjsguess
If you put any confidence in something like WAR, Simmons is projected to be between a 3 and 4 WAR player over the next 5 years. Let’s call it 17 WAR in total over the life of the contract. Using a rough value of $8M/WAR over the life of the contract you get $136M. That’s over $80M in surplus value.
There are not a lot of players that generate in excess of $80M of surplus value. That’s why most analysts are rating this as a big win for the Angels. The probability that Simmons stays a 3-4 WAR player is pretty reasonable. The probability that Newcomb + Ellis ever generate $80M in surplus value is very low.
nccubsfan 2
^ Bullseye
kingjenrry
He also can’t hit the broad side of a barn, which is a problem when you want to have a long, successful career.
tdmorgan
Currently Simmons has a ton of value, but by the time the Braves will be competitive again Simmons will be too expensive for what he brings. His offense might be league average for a SS, but in a few years he will be making 11,13, and 15 mil. That is far too much money for the braves to be giving to an all defense SS. They have historically developed their SS, so it’s a position they don’t really need to spend too much on.
Valuation for this year, the Angels have it hands down, but if Newcomb gets his command a little better and turns into the type of pitcher that is being thrown out, then pretty shortly, the Braves will easily be winning this deal. Ellis is a wildcard and could wind up being a BP arm or trade chip.
grantr
Being in a bad situation doesn’t justify getting the short end of the stick on any trade. Also, Simmons has averaged 3.23 WAR over the past 3 seasons and is just 26, so you can (very) conservatively peg his value at ~25 million per year for the remainder of his contract. The contract isn’t a concern, it’s a huge plus for the Angels.
tdmorgan
ATL has a payroll that doesn’t sustain that type of contract. If he was closer to a league average hitter, then yeah he has far more value throughout the deal. Defense has also been shown to decline because of speed. His arm will stay intact, but he will lose range. Meaning he will have to better position himself for each hitter or player deeper to make a lot of the same plays. His defense will not improve. If he loses too many steps in the next five years, then that contract will have no surplus value unless he finally starts to hit.
All that to say, I hated that we dealt him, but for the Braves, it makes complete sense. You have Albies coming up who will make a fraction of what Simmons makes and you have a stopgap in the meantime. Yes the stopgap is no where near the caliber of player, but that’s not the point. It’s a business deal as much as it is a talent deal. Plain and simple.
kingjenrry
An interesting article over at FanGraphs actually suggests that guys like Andrelton Simmons lose a step on defense as they age but actually improve offensively more than they get worse defensively. A recent example of this is Yadier Molina – a low-strikeout guy who couldn’t hit at all when he came up but worked at it and actually became one of the better hitters at his position. Any Braves fan can tell you that they think there’s definitely more to Simmons’ bat than we’ve seen yet.
burnhardspringer
Braves got fleeced. They are already stacked with pitching prospects. They got fleeced on the kimbrel trade as well as matt wisler was a highly regarded pitching prospect and had an awful season in Atlanta. Newcomb was a nice add, but plenty of teams who have pitching theyveprospects and other assets were out there.
For instance. Houston. Shift Correa to 3rd put simmons at ss. You cant tell me correa simmons altuve dont make an excellent 3/4 of the infield. Houston has a surplus of pitching and position players.
Colorado. Theyve got a surplus as well as theyve drafted a lot of pitching and could use an heir to tulo. And coors could help his bat.
Im sure the angels werent the only team that offered a decent package.
curveball6411
I guess the Braves got fleeced in the John Smoltz trade too. He was horrible is first couple seasons…
Ray Ray
Colorado has two heirs to Tulo in Trevor Story and Brendan Rodgers. Oh and they also still have $22million a year SS Jose Reyes. In your head, were the Braves going to take back that contract as well?
BTW, Coors does not turn light hitting shortstops into good hitters as evidenced by Reyes’s 50 point drop in OPS after the trade.
nccubsfan 2
Kimbrel deal was a good trade for the Braves. Got rid of a horrible contract, picked up a solid guy in Maybin who rebuilt his trade value this year, not to mention the payroll relief by moving Kimbrel. We simply didn’t need an elite closer on a 70 win (rebuilding) team.
nccubsfan 2
Plus we got a solid arm in Matt Wisler and a 41st draft pick. I don’t see how we got “fleeced”.
curveball6411
Don’t forget, that draft pick, turned into Austin Riley. Could be the best bat in the system and future at 3rd.
jleve618
Based off those numbers, I think the people who voted value is equivalent were right.
Lance
The Braves are rebuilding and they need good arms. Whether the pitchers they go will amount to anything is something we won’t know for another 2-3 years. It’s gonna be an ugly year in Atlanta next season with or without Simmons. For the Halos, maybe Simmons will be the key to a title like Ozzie was with STL.
MooseMichaels
It doesn’t make sense to me. The Angels need pitching and had a thin farm to begin with. Unless they’re willing to splash big in free agency, I don’t get this deal. Clear win for the Braves.
gookstyle
I’ll miss Newcomb but Simmons is a HUGE defensive upgrade over Aybar. While he has a gold glove under his belt and can’t hit decently for a shortstop his defensive metrics declined considerably last season. Wile Baldoquin is still figuring out how to play in the US and Taylor Lindsey is struggling with consistency getting controllable Simmons was a great move, albeit shocking at first.
Meow Meow
6000 votes in and “value is equivalent” only has about 1,000 votes… but the other two options each have between 2,400 and 2,550. So the deal may or may not be equivalent, but it’s a pretty even distribution around how people feel about it!
Joe McMahon
Ellis is not a great prospect. He was number 2 in the Angels system but that’s mostly because it was such a bad system. This trade is basically the best defender of our generation, with pretty much a 2-3 win floor because of how good his defense is, for one good prospect, one decent prospect and a mediocre SS. This was a big win for the Angels.
NL_East_Rivalry
Ellis isn’t a top 100 but he still has good value. Before the trade he would have been rated 7th on the Braves top 10 in prospects which is a deep system, albeit light up front. Ellis won’t be a number 2 pitcher but he wasn’t just a throw in
jcarter
Time will tell how things really shake out. Right now the braves got a short-term shortstop, a very good pitching prospect and another decent pitching prospect. They won’t benefit from simmons’ value as much because they are so far out of contention. They gained pieces that could prove extremely valuable for their rebuild.
The angels get one of the best overall shortstops in the league. He can absolutely improve their team this year and for the next several years. Both teams had to give up value to get value back. They had completely different objectives in the deal which is why I think it is pretty even
bbritton209
As a Braves fan I voted that the Angels got the better end of this deal, but in fairness this isn’t the right time to do this poll. This is one of those deals where you will have to look back 1-2 years from now and ask the same question, BUT since the question is dealing with the NOW and not the future… this is why the Angels got the better end of the deal.
Simmons is a defensive wizard and there is no denying that. No need in wasting time spouting out stats on that. He is also an offensive liability at the plate. Since his debut he has put up lackluster numbers. It could be overlooked if he was racking up SBs but he hasn’t done that either. He’s wanted to hit for power but he doesn’t have any power. So basically when you have Simmons coming up in the order it’s like having a second pitcher in the lineup.
Simmons was perhaps our BIGGEST trade chip that we have. Too many people don’t approach things with a balanced view. They think Defense is it, or offense is it. You can’t take a side on the offense/defense issue. You have to have a balance. Yes Simmons saved a LOT of runs for the Braves, but how many runs did he cost us? You can’t measure that. How many times did Simmons come up with 1-3 men on base and not even be able to get a hit? How many times did Simmons be given an opportunity to break open a game by just getting on base and yet he struck out or grounded out? You can’t measure those stats and as a Braves fan I can tell you that if you COULD measure it then his WAR would go into the negative because he was that big of a liability at the plate.
The reason that the Angels won this trade is because the Braves didn’t do ANYTHING to fill the holes in their lineup. Ellis could slot into the bullpen and strengthen it but he’s not the answer in the bullpen. Meanwhile we still have no future 3B and no future catcher. Yes I know that Austin Riley was drafted this year and could be the future but that won’t happen until 2018 at the earliest (barring some explosive miracle spring training). That means that we have 2-3 years of not having an everyday 3B. The same goes for catcher because Bethancourt just doens’t seem to be able to get it done in the majors for whatever reason.
Now 1-2 years from now Newcomb may be a #1 starter putting up numbers like Jon Lester (who Mark Bowman has compared him to) and if that’s the case then I think the Braves got the better end of the deal in it, but we can’t quantify that value yet because it hasn’t happened. And who knows what will happen with Simmons. He may go to Anaheim and pull an Ozzie Smith and suddenly start becoming a good well rounded player with stellar defense and good offense. And if that’s the case then perhaps the Angels get the better end of the deal. The bottom line is that…. it’s too early to tell the true value of the deal, but in the short run the Angels won out because this trade did nothing to change the future of the Braves system as a whole. We were already stocked with arms and in bad need of future positional players.
Rally Weimaraner
Both GM said it was tough/painful trade to make and the polling, so far, is pretty evenly split. As far as I am concerned that is the definition of a fair trade, one in which neither fan base is ecstatic.
dalealvingribble
I really like the deal for The Atlanta Braves. Mainly, because Erick Aybar fills the void well enough for a team that will be lucky to win 75 games and that is if every possible thing went right. We are a sub 500. team with or without Andrelton Simmons.
With this trade. The Braves now have 4 very premium looking left handed starters in the system. Sean Newcomb (needs to cut down on the walks), Kolby Allard (did a great job in the small sample size after being drafted 14th overall), Max Fried (who drew comparisons to Clayton Kershaw prior to Tommy John surgery), and Richardo Sanchez who was acquired last year from the Angels for Kyle Kubitza ( Sanchez is only 18, had a bit of a rough season but definitely has the stuff, but has the least likely chance to be a star out of the 4.)
With a rebuild you have to do it right and I feel that is what The Braves are doing going into 2016. No retooling, just a flat out rebuild. If The Braves wouldn’t have had an option at Shortstop. Then this deal would look worse. They have one in 2016 with Erick Aybar, and Ozhaino Albies for 2017 and beyond. Though we might have to sign a stop gap in 2017 if Albies isn’t ready then. By then, The Braves would be getting competitive, and Simmons would start to get more expensive. Long term I would rather have Albies at Short to pair with Mallex Smith at the top of the future Braves lineup, and Albies has a solid glove himself with great range and a good arm and definitely has an offensive role that Simmons was never able to establish.
This is the nature of rebuilds. While Braves have been accumilating prospects left and right and not all of them will pan out, and The Braves will lose on some of the deals they have made since John Hart took over. However, there at least does seem to be a definite rebuild here and a solid plan going forward. Even if one of these premium left handed arms I mentioned turns out to be an Ace type. It is worth it, and everyone will see that even more when an Ace like David Price signs his $200 Million dollar contract. If anyone of our pitchers from the left side turns out to be an Ace lefty. Then it was worth trading Upton in a walk year, worth trading Simmons, worth being bad enough to draft Allard, and definitely worth trading Kubitza for.
sdsuphilip2
sorry left this in wrong thread initially
I think the Angels got a lot more value than the Braves and Newcomb is quite a bit overrated. Don’t get me wrong Newcomb has a high upside, but people can’t just brush aside his walk rate which and it’s like he’s 19 or 20, or just above the threshold to worry, he’s above 5 BB/9 that is very scary, he is a very risky prospect.
Simmons is a once in a generation defensive player at a premium position still in his prime or about to hit his prime, he has a very safe floor and surplus value with upside of becoming a star if his bat can just improve a bit and already arguably has had a superstar year (at least by BR WAR). That being said his hitting troubles people talk about like he is Neifi Perez or whatever is way over the top, he has basically been an average hitter for a shortstop.