The deadline for players to extend qualifying offers to their free agents is 5pm ET today. The value of this year’s qualifying offer — which is equated by taking the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players — is $15.8MM. Teams can extend the QO to free agents who spent the entire year with that club (i.e. were not midseason signings/trade acquisitions), giving the player one week to accept or decline the deal. Should the player accept — and to this point, no one has ever accepted a QO — he is immediately under contract for the following season at that $15.8MM salary and cannot be traded without his consent until the following June. If a player rejects and signs with a new club, his former team is awarded a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round the following year. Any team that signs a player that has rejected a QO must forfeit its top unprotected draft pick. (The top 10 picks in next year’s draft are protected under the collective bargaining agreement.) Those wishing to drill down deeper into the specifics of the qualifying offer can check out MLBTR’s full explanation of the qualifying offer system.
The previous one-year record for number of player to receive a QO is 13, but with a deep crop of free-agent talent this offseason, a new record will absolutely be set. I see as many as 22 realistic QO candidates in this year’s free agent class, though some of those are admittedly borderline calls whose teams may decide not to make the risk. To this point, the Royals have already made the obvious decision to extend a QO to Alex Gordon (as they announced yesterday). That was the lone formal announcement prior to Friday.
All that said, here’s the list of formal qualifying offers to be extended (we’ll update accordingly throughout the day)…
- The Orioles announced that they’ve issued qualifying offers to first baseman Chris Davis, lefty Wei-Yin Chen, and catcher Matt Wieters. Though reports at times questioned whether Baltimore would extend the $15.8MM offer to Wieters, it always seemed a near-lock that that the team would do so (with expectations that he’ll reject it and look for multiple years in free agency).
- The White Sox have officially announced their qualifying offer to Jeff Samardzija, which was essentially a foregone conclusion. It’s been known that Samardzija will receive a qualifying offer and widely reported that he will reject said offer for quite some time.
Earlier Updates
- Hisashi Iwakuma (Mariners), Dexter Fowler (Cubs) and Daniel Murphy (Mets) will all receive qualifying offers, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Each of the moves was widely expected, although Heyman also hears that the Padres have made up their mind and will make a qualifying offer to Ian Kennedy. That situation was a bit more up in the air, though Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune said two nights ago that it was a “likely” outcome, and we at MLBTR have voiced the belief that the Padres should and would make the QO on multiple occasions.
- The Blue Jays have now announced that Marco Estrada will receive a qualifying offer on the strength of his impressive 2015 regular season and playoff performance. (A full breakdown of Estrada’s qualifying offer can be read here.)
- The Cardinals announced that they have extended the qualifying offer to both Jason Heyward and John Lackey. Each decision was widely anticipated, as they 26-year-old Heyward is poised to cash in on an enormous contract due to his youth, defensive prowess and solid contributions at the plate and on the bases. Lackey recently turned 37, but he’s completely rejuvenated his career over the past three seasons and is well-positioned to land a sizable multi-year deal this winter even with draft pick compensation attached to his name
- As noted above, the Royals announced their qualifying offer to Alex Gordon on Thursday afternoon.
I’ve defended the QO in the past, but if no one accepts with such a (presumably) deep class, I think they should go back to the drawing board.
The thing about the old arbitration system was that even though it wasn’t great, you did get a few players who accepted each year.
The system is flawed. It’s not really any good for teams or players. One thing to consider would be to have the signing team lose a 2 Ned round or lower pick. Teams put too much stock in high round talent. Especially to lose said talent just to sign a marginal player who was extended a QO ( see Drew, Stephen and Morales, Kendrys)
Several players in the past SHOULD have accepted the QO (paging Steven Drew). Those choices were on the players/agent, not so much on the system. I don’t think it’s a perfect system, but I think it’s probably fairer than the old type A system.
I don’t know that we can definitively say Drew should’ve accepted. There were multiple times earlier that winter where he was reported to have interest from a team on a two-year deal. Drew and Boras obviously felt more was out there, and that proved to be a misread (though I fully admit to thinking they could top two years at the time).
If he’d taken 2/22 or something in early December, we wouldn’t look back and say he should’ve accepted, just like we’re not saying Cuddyer should have (even though no one would’ve blamed him). Drew’s mistake wasn’t so much rejecting the QO as it was possessing unrealistic expectations.
I’d say I think Morales should’ve accepted, but he still (incredibly) is going to end up with about $28MM over the three-year period following his QO, which isn’t a disastrous outcome. The route to get there was just ugly.
Yes, Drew should have accepted the QO. He was coming off an average season—nothing about his game jumped out as elite—he’s a very good defensive shortstop, but also extremely injury prone. Why would he and/or Boras believe someone would give him multiple years AND surrender their first round pick for someone who hadn’t played a full season but once in several years? No question about it Drew was foolish not to accept it, and that was quite obvious at the time.
For Drew, I think it was way more obvious. Roughly $14mil was way more than he was worth for 2014, and he likely could’ve ended up with more that $22mil over these two years had he taken the QO. His unrealistic expectations are exactly what did him in.
change the QO to a position based QO similar to the NFL’s franchise tag, rather than one 15 million dollar deal
I think the player should have all offseason to accept. Team can pull it off the table at any time if it hasn’t been accepted but then lose the comp pick.
What happens to a team’s draft picks if they sign two (or more) players that receive QO? Also, what happens to a team that loses two (or more) players who received QO?
The team that signs a 2 nd player with QO attached would lose their next pick and so on. So if u see a team willing to give up a pick then they would probably be less hesitant to sign additional players with the offer attached.
They lose the next highest pick for each QO FA, so If they lose 1st rounder for first FA signed, they lose 2nd rounder for next one, etc. Teams that lose players keep getting picks between first and second round for each QO FA lost.
If a player accepts, can the team continue to negotiate a longer contract? I can see Lackey saying yes. He won’t get $15.8 mm AAV, and how many more years does he want to pitch?
Nope. If he accepts, that is what he’s making in 2016.
They can always negotiate an extension on top of that, which could ultimately lower the AAV.
The reason i see him saying no is him going after a two year deal possibly. Then even if he makes less this year he’ll make more overall. I wouldnt be surprised to see the Cubs court him if he declines the QO.
Players and their current teams can always negotiate extensions and stuff. The only thing that would get in the way would be the MLBPA stepping in if they felt the player was giving up money.
John Lackey will absolutely, positively get at least 2/$30M and probably 3/$48 if he wants it.
There in lies the problem. Should a 39 year old non allstar…non superstar be getting $16 million dollars?
Let him pass on the QO and go the way of drew (who absolutely should have accepted)
Lackey is soon-to-be 37, so not sure where 39 comes from.
Because he’d be 39 at the end of the proposed 3-year contract?
He should get every penny he can
Why would the AAV go up for adding a 3rd year?
My question is whether the player can be extended a second QO in a subsequent year if he accepts the first one.
Yes though they should change that imo.
Phils can Start building around Heyward,
They could, but why on earth would Hayward want to go there right now?
Because Money and be a Leader on a young Team that will grow into a contender with two or three Free agents .
Two or three free agents? If they signed Heyward, Price, and Greinke I still don’t think they’re legitimate contenders. And that’s over $500 million worth of contracts.
Hilarious!
Heyward plays hard, is a great talent, and is really fun to watch play, but he’s no leader. The Braves needed him to step up and be one the last few years but it never happened. Nothing against him personally, I went to high school w/ Jason, some personalities are just not cut out for that role. He’ll most likely go to a team w/ deep pockets.
Well, if they offer him the most money and the highest AAV, I can guarantee you he’d end up there. They surely won’t, though.
Wrong. SOME players take less money to play for contending teams. Strong emphasis on “SOME”, many do as you say.
Can you name me a top free agent that has passed on both the top overall guaranteed money and the highest AAV to play for a contender?
I’m sorry I didn’t do the due research but I remember a few years ago the M’s being turned down even though they offered more.
In fairness, the offers that don’t get accepted aren’t usually reported. It doesn’t do a ream much good to say “Look, so and so doesn’t want to.play here! We offered more money!”
Didn’t Sandoval go to the Red Sox when it was reported the Pads offered more?
A high AAV will no doubt attract Heyward but if there’s a difference in a few million between contract offers, I think an opt-out may make all the difference.
The problem with the rising salaries is that low market team’s payrolls aren’t increasing dramatically with them (Over the past 10 years excluding some of the rebuilding teams who didn’t have any commitments the average rise is about $10,000,000). All they are doing is expanding the divide between the rich teams and the poor teams. It used to be: Elite Players (1st tier guys like Price) went to the Yankees, Angels, Cards, Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers, or Phillies, however, now its all players down to the third tier. This takes the small-market teams out of it completely. The fact that Estrada will get 12-15m AAV is nuts.
So even though so many players will be tied to QO’s, some won’t have to worry because if a team is signing say 3-4 free agents, by the 4th one they are probably only losing a 4th or 5th round draft pick.
Still i think a few players should sign the QO since 15.8 mill is not peanuts and once a few sign it, then teams may be more wary of handing them out in the future which would include the player who signed the QO since they’d be a FA the next year.
Yes but who would you ask to be that first sacrificial lamb. If that happens and the player ends up injured the MLBPA would go crazy against it
Estrada may take it, a QO is 150% of his total career earnings, 5 times the amount made in 2015.
I doubt it. He’s 32 and coming off a career year. Estrada surely has 4 or 5 years of security waiting for him somewhere.
the player should be most likely a position player (i think pitchers would always gravitate towards a longer contract), relatively old, or relatively confident that they won’t be able to receive a multi year deal, and/or a vet that loves his current team’s situation where playing in the post season is more important than trying to get a multi year deal…. oh and NOT represented by Boras.
guys in their early thirties are looking for their last BIG contract. they’ll most likely decline.
i don’t see anyone taking the QO.
Cuddyer was the best chance of a player taking the QO, but…Mets
Daniel Murphy should accept the qualifying offer. It will make him the 2nd highest paid second baseman (average annual salary) in baseball history. If he were smart he takes the 15.8, without the post season heroics he can still command a 2-20 or 3-30 year deal next years and have that 15.8 on top. I dont see many teams offering him 3-36 or 4-46, but teams have proven us wrong in the past
He should take the extra $20 to $30 million he will get by walking. Total money means a lot more than annual salary.
Kinsler made $16M in 2015
Murphy will absolutely get more than 3/36. If his asking price were 3/36, half the teams in baseball would be in on him, including the Mets. Heck, Oliver Perez got 3/36 and that was years ago.
Murphy is a consistent 2-3 WAR player who is adequate at at least 3 positions. I’m not the biggest Murphy fan, but 3/36 would be a bargain.
The Rafael Palmeiro Corollary to Murphy’s Law states that if something weird can happen, eventually it will. If it is possible for a player to win a gold glove at 1B with 28 games played in the field, eventually someone will.
I don’t have nearly the economic brainpower to think through it to the end, but taking the average of the top 125 salaries seems like a potential mine field of issues. The current-year salary of a long-term back-loaded (or front-loaded) deal isn’t a very good number on which to start basing important things. What if players started sacrificing guaranteed years for higher AAV? It would start driving the QO to silly places. It seems to me it would make more sense to have the QO be a certain percentage over the MLB average salary.
The old Type A/B system wasn’t flawless either, of course, but it seems a LOT of players that would have been Type B or even low-end Type A aren’t going to get QO’s so the teams don’t get any compensation for them.
I could be wrong but I think there’s a lot less in the way of compensation picks being handed out now. I feel like teams should be able to make some kind of a lower-level offer to a player and pick up some lesser sandwich picks.
I’ve seen less comp picks as well, however that seems to be because the QO is high. It ought to be around 10-12 million, or even better would be a positional based QO like the NFL franchise tag
10-12 million would be a nightmare for those players that declined but wouldn’t have gotten a 15.8 offer. I could see a rule in place that if they offer the lesser one and they don’t accept they get a low comp pick and the signing team loses a low pick. Like a 5th round. No one will let top players go if they only get back a 5th round so the top players will still get the higher QO but the type B players can receive the low QO
So at 10-12M, anyone questionable becomes definite. This year alone you could add Span, O’Day maybe a C Young (both) and Jaso. All it does is lower the bar.
As for a position based QO, what of Zobrist? Murphy? at what point does one qualify for a position?
Is it a percentage? top 10?
What about pitchers? Just most recent season or is career taken into account. I am sure Fister will be marketed as a SP, but pitched in relief most of the year.
NFL franchise tag gives 100% of the power to the team, and none to the players. no way players union allows that.
I keep expecting that to happen(higher per year short term) but I don’t know if it will. Seems some merit to offering a guy like Chris Davis a 4/120 opposed to 7/150
How is Justin Upton not on this list yet?
Hisashi Iwakuma, Wei Yen-Chen, and Jeff Samardzija are all pitchers I’d love to see the Pirates pursue. However, now that they have been extended QOs, you can scratch them off the Pirate wish list. The Pirate front office is far too cheap to give up a draft pick, and they probably will have zero interest in paying any free agent more than $10M a year anyway.
I think so far the best bets to accept though still unlikely are Wieters, Estrada, Murphy, and/or Rasmus.
Fowler and Rasmus seem like the most likely to accept the QO to me.
Fowler held a lot of value to the Cubs, I see him easily securing a four year deal as a free agent. Will be fun to see who the first player ever to accept is. Also once one does will more easily follow.
Or teams are more deliberate in offers
I wonder if teams will start to get really brave if no player out of the 20 plus accept this year. We could start seeing qualifying offers to guys like Darren O Day with a team risking they won’t accept even when they should.
It’s already been pushed pretty far with guys like Cuddyer and Estrada, but yeah, especially if we go 20 for 20 in rejections this year then clubs will have to consider upping their aggressiveness.
Forgive me as I’m far from an expert on the QO side of things but I’m curious about something. With all the pitching on the market this off-season would there be any logic for some some pitchers who’ve received QO but may not command that high of an annual average salary to take the offer in order to position themselves better for next year’s off-season? If the FA starter class isn’t seen as being as deep next year then this could move some middle of the pack pitchers up in the rankings. IE, a 2015/16 “Plan C” pitcher could move up to being a 2016/17 “Plan A/B” acquisition due to scarcity.
There’s always discussion of that idea, and it hasn’t happened yet. But I do think some players have and will consider taking them. The trick with the market positioning thing is that you have to actually be worthy of an investment when you hit the market. Especially for a pitcher, there’s a lot of risk in hoping that will hold true in one year’s time.
Also, remember that for many of these guys, the downside is taking a one-year deal at a team of their choosing for the approximate value of the QO. That’s what Ervin Santana did, for example. So, why not at least test the market?
Not to say we won’t see that happen, but I’d be surprised if any of the players this year took that approach. (If any accept, it would probably be more out of fear of what the draft pick comp would do to their market.)
I like “the franchise” tag (ha, no pun intended) that they use in the NFL. You can tag one player at a crazy amount for one year. It gives the team the entire year to extend the player, trade the player, or milk them for one more year.
Imagine if the Jays could franchise tag David Price for one more year. Or tag Bautista for 2017?
I like that way more than the QO system. The QO is also out of whack with respects to money. How does Marco Estrada go from $3mil a year to $15.8? I mean, c’mon.
Anyways. That’s my nickel.