Check out all the entries in the 2015-16 Offseason Outlook series here.
After racking up more regular-season wins than any other team in 2015, the Cardinals are set to contend again, as they usually do. First, though, they’ll need to address Jason Heyward’s impending free agency.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Adam Wainwright, SP: $57.5MM through 2018
- Matt Carpenter, 3B: $46MM through 2019 (plus 2020 club option)
- Yadier Molina, C: $30MM through 2017 (plus 2018 mutual option)
- Jhonny Peralta, SS: $22.5MM through 2017
- Matt Holliday, OF: $18MM through 2016 (plus 2017 club option)
- Lance Lynn, SP: $15MM through 2017
- Jon Jay, OF: $6.225MM through 2016
- Jordan Walden, RP: $3.75MM through 2016 (plus 2017 club option)
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)
- Brandon Moss (5.160) – $7.9MM
- Peter Bourjos (5.062) – $1.8MM
- Steve Cishek (4.143) – $7.1MM
- Tony Cruz (4.105) – $1.0MM
- Trevor Rosenthal (3.058) – $6.5MM
- Matt Adams (3.033) – $1.5MM
- Seth Maness (2.154) – $1.2MM
- Non-tender candidates: Moss, Bourjos, Cishek, Cruz
Contract Options
- Jaime Garcia, SP: 2016 club option for $11.5MM with $500K buyout (exercised). The Cardinals also have a $12MM 2017 option with a $500K buyout
- Jonathan Broxton, RP: 2016 club option for $9MM with $1MM buyout (declined)
Free Agents
- Jason Heyward, John Lackey, Matt Belisle, Randy Choate, Mark Reynolds, Carlos Villanueva
After winning 100 games and then losing in the NLDS, the Cardinals will try to fly even faster into the wind this offseason. Whatever solutions they come up with to their immediate roster issues, it will be difficult for them to continue to perform at such a toweringly high level. Of course, they should still be a strong team. The problem of how best to maintain a 100-win team is a great one to have.
The possibility of losing Heyward looms large. Heyward, acquired last winter after the tragic death of Oscar Taveras, had the kind of season he usually has — his offensive numbers were, on the surface, a bit disappointing, but he contributed all sorts of value with his fielding and baserunning, frequently changing games with his glove and arm. His youth and broad skill set will make him a mint in free agency, although he could receive somewhat less per season than the usual top free agent might. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently predicted Heyward would receive a ten-year, $200MM contract, perhaps with an opt-out. Any contract at or near that level is a risk, and the Cardinals will have plenty of competition, but they could certainly bid for Heyward at that price, given their modest payroll commitments in 2017 and beyond.
If Heyward signs elsewhere, the Cardinals can be flexible. They could pursue a lower-cost free agent outfielder, but it’s more likely they’ll simply go with veterans Matt Holliday and Jon Jay plus some combination of young outfielders Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty and Tommy Pham, all of whom had surprisingly strong seasons in 2015. The Cardinals could then spend their available funds on other positions.
One of those positions could be starting pitcher, but likely only if they’re acquiring a top-flight player. The Cardinals have Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha and a healthy Adam Wainwright under control for 2016, along with Jaime Garcia, whose option they’ve already decided to exercise after a successful comeback season. They also have Carlos Martinez, although a season-ending shoulder strain makes his short-term future somewhat uncertain. Their depth options, like Tyler Lyons and Tim Cooney, are also fairly good ones, and top prospect Alex Reyes could potentially enter the picture late in the season. So despite the impending departure of John Lackey, there’s little reason for the Cardinals to pursue an innings-eater type.
They could, however, conceivably aim higher — they’ve already been mentioned as a possible bidder for this winter’s top free agent, David Price. Pursuing a free agent like Price (or Heyward, for that matter) does seem a bit tricky from a budgetary perspective, at least in the short term; the Cardinals’ Opening Day payroll was $122MM in 2015, and between their $90MM or so in existing commitments for 2016 and arbitration-year salaries on top of that, they don’t appear to have much room for a highly paid player. Given their very limited future commitments ($65MM in 2016, $33MM in 2017, and practically nothing after that), though, it would seem possible for the Cardinals to increase their payroll somewhat for 2016 with the understanding that they can limit their spending in the future if they need to.
Besides, if the Cardinals were to decide to pursue top free agents, they would have ways to trim payroll. In addition to non-tendering Brandon Moss, Peter Bourjos and Steve Cishek (all of whom had subpar 2015 seasons), the Cardinals could conceivably clear payroll space by trading someone like Garcia, especially if they sign a top starter. Garcia had a brilliant comeback season in 2015 and is well worth his option, but the Cardinals could look at his injury history and figure they might be able to get more certainty by spending their money differently. The Cardinals have also already declined Jonathan Broxton’s option, and they could also attempt to save a bit by non-tendering light-hitting backup catcher Tony Cruz.
The Cardinals could also potentially upgrade at first base, particularly if Heyward leaves. They were 25th in the big leagues in home runs last season, with 137, and first could represent one way to address that problem. Chris Davis would represent a huge improvement, and Korean slugger Byung-Ho Park might be a lower-cost option. Of the two, Park might be somewhat more likely — the Cards bid on Jung-Ho Kang last offseason, and GM John Mozeliak said at the time that the organization was interested in delving further into the market for Asian players. If the Cardinals do re-sign Heyward, they could pass on first base upgrades and have Piscotty spell Matt Adams there on occasion, particularly against lefties. Adams could also become a trade candidate in that scenario — he didn’t hit well in 2015, but a team with a bigger hole at first (or a need for DH) could have interest in taking a flyer on his bat.
Trevor Rosenthal, Kevin Siegrist and Seth Maness will all presumably be back in the bullpen. The Cardinals can also hope for more from Jordan Walden, who missed most of 2015 with a shoulder injury. A variety of other pitchers, including Sam Tuivailala, Miguel Socolovich and Lyons, could also contribute. It wouldn’t be a surprise to the Cardinals add a lefty to complement Siegrist, though, particularly if they plan on saving Lyons to start if needed. Lefty Randy Choate is a free agent, and the Cards might benefit from adding someone who they trust a little more against righties. Someone like Antonio Bastardo or Tony Sipp would make sense, although those pitchers figure to be in demand this offseason, with a relatively thin group of lefty relievers on the market. If the Cardinals can’t find someone from outside the organization, minor league southpaw Dean Kiekhefer could be a possibility. The Cards will also likely at least consider re-signing righty Carlos Villanueva, who was effective in multi-inning stints last season, although the need for him would be lessened somewhat by replacing Choate with a lefty capable of pitching full innings.
The Cards will also need to address their bench somewhat. They have solid outfield depth, but they’re a bit thin on catching and infielders. At catcher, Cody Stanley would probably have been the next man up if Cruz departs, but he’ll be serving an 80-game PED suspension for much of next season. The Cardinals can also use a somewhat stronger backup catcher than they’ve had recently, too, with Yadier Molina getting older (he’s now 32) and coming off a subpar offensive season. And now that the Cardinals have outrighted Pete Kozma, they only have Greg Garcia as an obvious backup to Jhonny Peralta and Kolten Wong, unless they want to push Cuban shortstop Aledmys Diaz to the big leagues after only 58 Triple-A plate appearances (or use minor league vet Dean Anna, who remains on their 40-man roster even though they showed little interest in him last season).
Beyond the roster tweaking, though, a key problem for the Cardinals this season is how to maintain, or even approximate, the amazing pitching results they got in 2015. The Cards’ 2.82 team ERA ran a full run behind their xFIP and about three quarters of a run behind their SIERA. They held batters to a .275 wOBA with runners on base and .266 with runners in scoring position. Each mark was at least 20 points better than their nearest competitor. They left 79.4% of runners on base, more than four percentage points better than the next-best team. Ed Feng of the Power Rank calculates that the Cardinals saved 105 runs more than expected via the clustering (or lack thereof) of their opponents’ hits.
The Cardinals gave about a third of that cluster luck back on offense. Still, as Ben Lindbergh of Grantland suggested in August, it’s difficult to find reasons that fully explain how the Cardinals’ pitchers got such great results last season. It’s probably unwise, therefore, to expect them to do so again in 2016, just as the Cards’ 2014 offense didn’t maintain anything resembling the amazing .330 average with runners in scoring position they’d posted the previous year.
Obviously, though, there isn’t much the Cardinals can do to address that problem other than to attempt to upgrade their roster the way they normally would. And, of course, they won 100 games last year, and it generally takes some good fortune to be that successful, even if you’re great. The Cardinals could win ten fewer games in 2016 and still be competitive. If they’re able to re-sign Heyward, or compensate for his departure with additions elsewhere, they should be right in the thick of the NL Central race yet again.
cstoked8
If the Cardinals do not resign Heyward, could they conceivably package some starting pitchers together and try and pry away JD Martinez from the Tigers?
RedFeather
I like the idea but dont see Detroit trading Martinez. It would take a lot to get him. What if the Cardinals looked into trading for Cargo if Heyward walks? I believe he is still under control for two-three more years and it would be worth giving up some young talent for an already proven young major leaguer?
biogeek23
.243 away from Coors at 17 million in 2016 and 20 in 2017. Hard to see that happening without money going to the Cards.
RedFeather
Well the Rockies are looking for hard throwing young pitchers so yes, they would have to eat some of that contract.
gray
As long as Choate isn’t back then I’m happy. I like the OF of Grichuk, Piscotty, Holliday, & Pham. I would like the Cards to pursue the heir to Molina. Maybe Hedges or Max Pentecost.
RedFeather
I think the Cardinals need to address SP first. They need to go out of their norm and sign a front line pitcher if they still want to compete for the next 5 years. Yes, the rotation dominated last year but will that actually happen again? No. Did their arms fall apart during the stretch? Yep. Will the Cubs try and sign 1-2 top pitchers in the offseason? Yes. With the Cubs young hitting and added pitching the Cardinals need to stock up on dominate pitching. Maybe (hate to say it) but trade Lynn and sign either Price, Grenke, or Zimmerman.
Wainwright
Price
Wacha
Martinez
Garcia/Gonzalez/Lyons/Reyes
Unless Heyward will take a 90Mill over 5 years Id say let him walk and let the young guys take over until Hollidays contract is up. These young guys are clearly talented and wont get better without any experience.
Trade Adams, Jay, and Borjours.. no need for them on the team at this point as they could yield a decent return in prospects (which the Cardinals are getting thin in that area).
Random idea: Package Randal Grichuk, Alexander Reyes, Peter Bourjos, and Matt Adams for Chris Sale…
calikid13
Giving up way too much for Sale… Reyes is nearly untouchable in value. Grichuk has future All Star talent written on him. Bourjos could draw interest from several teams but we’d be selling low on Adams right now.
Paddy
Gotta resign Lackey, yes he is older but a 2 yr deal, he was unbelievable the last year. He would continue to be a great fit for u guys. And I would live for heyward to somehow get to the Bronx so we can move Beltran out of the field. He is atrocious. But 10 yr contract, that has never, ever worked out. Now he is super young compared to the 30 yr olds who have gotten those 10 yr deals, but still, even with an opt out clause, 10 yrs is just way to much. And as phenomenal a fielder and runner that he is, his batting is less than desirable and at this point in his MLB career I think we can bank on continued offensive output like he has demonstrated. Everyone is just waiting for him to turn the proverbial corner, but I don’t think that’s gonna happen.
wongpitchwongtime
They should at least make a QO for Lackey. 2 years is probably not what they want out of him, but they’d be willing to risk him taking the QO for another year, otherwise they would be happy with the draft pick.
Also agree that Reyes isn’t going to be moved in any package though Sale would be awesome in a Cardinal uniform. I don’t see the cards as a serious player for Price. Agree on not getting value for Adams, he’s at the lowest value since coming up.
Little Tone
I lost you at Heyward for 90 mil. You clearly have no idea what the FA market is like. Not even going to comment on the Sale trade you came up with.
RedFeather
Im well aware of how the market work.. Im not saying that all he will get. I am saying that is all I would like to see the Cardinals offer him. Reread my post bud.
Cardsfan314
Okay I just want to say the cardinals have plenty of payroll space. If you look at Derrick Goold’s previous chats you can see the cardinals have plenty of payroll muscle, and they can use, whether they will or not is a different story, but they have plenty of payroll flexibility to add top tier players.
sigurd 2
This is all well and good, but who is going to be the team hacker?
I keed, I keed.
RedFeather
Well Im no Pete Rose but Im willing to BET former Cardinals GM Walt Jocketty might have an idea.. But Im just KICKING the tires on it like Johnny Cueto.
I keed, I keed.
drewm
The Cards will not re-sign Jason Heyward. They won’t want to pay him what he’s worth, and there are plenty of other clubs who would.
RedFeather
He is in no way, shape, or form worth $200 million. Sorry man
calikid13
They don’t need Heyward. QO him and get a pick. Sign or trade for a 1B. Pat Kivlehan with Seattle, Davis is a FA or Park in the foreign market.
fakedayton
I take it that Moss is getting non tendered correct?
calikid13
Possibly but it is a likelihood that he played this season with a nagging injury that hindered his performance. I could see the organization placing hope that he returns to his form from previous years. If they don’t acquire anyone for 1st they will likely hold onto him as trade bait if possible.
wongpitchwongtime
I wonder if the Cards would make a move for Adam Lind, an obvious improvement at 1st. The question would be…how much value would they have to give up? Lind is someone that would get a QO at the end of the season as well.
Cards Fan 2
I wouldn’t hate that, but I have a feeling the Brewers would still ask way too much for him, especially to trade him inside the division. Otherwise I think we would have got him at the trade deadline last year.