Earlier today, we collected a series of reactions to the Red Sox’ big move to acquire Craig Kimbrel from the Padres for prospects Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra, Carlos Asuaje and Logan Allen. Here are a few more that have trickled in throughout the day.
- As noted in our previous post, reviews of the Red Sox’ end of the deal by outside analysts have not all been enthusiastic. But CSNNE.com’s Sean McAdam collected a number of takes from scouts and evaluators within the game who view the Sox’ decision to trade four prospects (including two highly rated ones in Margot and Guerra) somewhat more favorably. “I like Margot and Guerra. [They’re] middle-of-the-diamond kids with upside, (but) I doubt either becomes Betts or Bogaerts,” says one NL scout. “Prospects are nice, but in that market, give me Brady as QB over [Marcus] Mariota.” An NL evaluator points out that the Sox avoided giving up their very best prospects, like Yoan Moncada and Rafael Devers. Not everyone loved the deal from Boston’s perspective, however. Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski “is all about the short term and this trade made sense from that perspective,” says an MLB exec. “But if you do too many of the deals, you wake up in a few years like the Phillies … or the Tigers.”
- One potential reason the Red Sox felt outfielder Margot was expendable was the presence of 2015 top draft choice Andrew Benintendi, who could move through the minors quickly, as Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal tweets. In an accompanying article, MacPherson compares Benintendi to Mets rookie Michael Conforto, who rocketed through the minors, and notes that Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia and Jed Lowrie all moved quickly through the Sox’ system after being drafted out of college, as Benintendi was. Benintendi hit .313/.416/.556 across two levels in his first taste of the minors this summer.
- The Reds don’t feel the Padres’ trade of Kimbrel will have much effect on the market for Aroldis Chapman, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com writes. Chapman only has one year of control remaining, while Kimbrel has three, so although both are top-flight closers, they represent somewhat different types of commodities. “Kimbrel was a bit of a different animal than Chapman, in terms of club control,” says new Reds GM Dick Williams. “We didn’t feel like we missed out on a deal with them. There will be other teams that are interested in Chapman.”
Honestly, I don’t get why the Phillies and Tigers are looked down on so much. They both made the world series twice over the past 10 years. I don’t think trading prospects was their problem. The Phillies didn’t sell early enough, and the Tigers (although finishing in last place in 2015) have a very solid young core and could still very well compete in 2016. The Tigers did put themselves in somewhat of a hole, but that’s because they’ve lost quite a few 1st round draft picks because they relied too heavily on free agents.
They both dished out excessive contracts to their vets and neglected the farm and are now expensive teams with losing records.
Tigers had a losing record ONE YEAR. Division champions the last 4 years before that. The only reason that Detroit is “looked down upon” is ignorance.
I gotta agree. The tigers had one off year and still made out ok with trades. They got some nice pieces for Price. They are loyal but they have an owner with the resources to absorb some bad choices and they unlike the Phillies really haven’t ended up with to many dead contracts yet. Verlander I believe is a solid bounce back candidate and I think Miggy is a guy who could produce late into his career. Kinsler is still very productive and they have some interesting young players like Norras. If they sign a couple guys they could be right back in it or they could probably rebuild because most of their players would be moveable besides probably Verlander. Even the Phillies probably arne’t in too bad shape. They have a rising farm system and alot of money. They could probably sign some decent free agents and they try to flip them at the deadline this season or next.
Tigers failed to focus on bullpen pieces and closer and it cost them in Postseason.
Soria was the #1 available relief pitcher available in trade in the 2014 trade deadline, AHEAD of Miller (value at the time). The Tigers got him.
Nathan was the #1 available relief pitcher available in free agency after the 2013 season. The Tigers got him.
The Red Sox 4th choice at closer won the ALCS MVP and become a World Series Champion. Any of the 30 teams could have afforded to get Uehara before the 2013 season. He was a complete afterthought.
Sometimes its is just bad luck when other teams have good luck.
There were questions about Nathan, with his declining velocity, and increasing walk rate, before the Tigers signed him. Uehara, had questions because he had never closed and throws “different”. Sometimes, its scouting.
Yeah but now you got the royals and twins who are going to compete. They won 4 straight in a row in a very weak division. You could even make an argument Chicago and Cleveland have the potential to compete. The Tigers had their best chances the last 4 Seasons. Now they’re declining due to a lack of any real impactful prospects ( barring the trades they just made ) and a bunch of veterans who are only going to get worse
Phillies are cheap compared to what we’d be paying if we thought our team could compete now.
The tigers have now young core whatsoever
What is wrong with the Tigers?
They have three of the top 15 WAR position players in the AL (Miggy, Kinsler, JD), two top controllable pitching prospects, and almost $50MM/year to spend on free agents.
Am I missing something?
Chemistry and roster costruction. Theyve long neglected the bullpen and tried to paych rather than solve the past couple years.
The bullpen issues forced them to trade prospects for help that didnt panout as they hoped.
The Tigers were not obsessed with their bullpen. Instead they tried every tactic trading, using young guys and getting the best available free agents.
They never really bet the farm on the bullpen. They did that for Starting Pitching…. but they got 6 top prospects back at the trading deadline and draft last year.
They should have addressed their bullpen better. Claiming that to Rondon was the closer for 2013 was insane. They should have tried to acquire more depth than just throw up darts at a closer, but heinsight is 20-20
Hindsight.
The Tigers aren’t going to be any better than they were in 2015 and they play in a tough division. The Royals just won the WS and aren’t going to stop being good any time soon and the Twins, Indians and White Sox are just coming out of rebuilding phases, with the Twins barely missing a Wild Card spot this year.
They are not going to win more than 74 games next year? Really? Thanks. I will drop my cable subscription to save some money then.
FACT: Average age of Tigers in 2015 was ranked 7th youngest out of 30 teams. The Royals was 28th out of 30 teams. Source: ESPN.
The Tigers were more toward the middle of the pack (14th youngest for position players, 20th for pitchers) while KC was on the old end (25th and 29th, respectively). However, combined, the difference in average age is less than a year. (28.4 years vs 29.2)
I’m fairly certain ESPN doesn’t take into account ALL players used during the season, only those currently on the roster, so you’re not seeing David Price, Yoenis Cespedes, or Joakim Soria factor into your number. That said, for future purposes, current roster construction is a valid age to go off of.
No Price and no Cespedes. How do you expect to make up for the loss of those two?
you may be missing the fact that they don’t have a whole lot besides the three players you just mentioned… and 2 of those are on the wrong side of 30.
Tigers are in a tough division and most of the teams they were looking up at at the end of last year are younger and have considerably better farm systems. getting back to the top using just money is also a lot harder than it used to be.
Tigers are the 7th YOUNGEST team in baseball.
And do you think they are not going to spend all of the $50MM they have freed up v. last year?
Also, I guess you forgot about McCann, Iglesias, Castellanos, Wilson, Norris, Fulmer, and Boyd?
It’s just so easy to write them off since its just such a easy story to write that they are similar to the Phillies. They only have 5 players from their 2012 run still on their team. Other than a few vets, they are a young team.
Why do you keep bringing up the 7th youngest team thing? They’re so young because they had to play young guys after the deadline since they were waving the white flag. And young guys and prospects are great and all but theres no guarantee they pan out. They might have a good year or two and then be below league average players the rest of their careers.
You may be correct, but which exactly of the Tigers young core players do you think will not pan out? They still had an above average offense without miggy for 2 months and with a hurt vmart all year
I’m not saying they are not going to pan out. As a baseball fan I hope they do, but injuries or lost confidence can destroy a prospect and a guy who was once thought to be a stud can turn out to be a bust.
I certainly agree with you with one point: the Tigers lack depth. If someone goes down, it’d be tough to replace them
The “young guys” you are referring to after the deadline were pitchers. At least 85-90% of them will be in AAA for 2016.
The “7th youngest team thing” refers to the 4-5 starting position players 25 or younger and J.D at 28. He keeps bringing it up because its true.
I wasn’t questioning its validity, I know its true. But theres no reason to hold any weight to it. All the teams who made the playoffs are older than the Tigers meaning they have players in their prime. The Tigers being the 7th youngest team just means they have a bunch of guys who aren’t in their prime. I’m not bashing them for not being in their prime, not everyone is Mike Trout, Bryce Harper or Kris Bryant but being a young team usually means you are rebuilding or are limited by your cap (like the Rays who are younger btw).
I understand your point but it could be said of any team. banking on their young players. Detroit had 2 All stars that were 25 and 27. Mixed in with the youth was the American League batting champion for 2015 and runner up to the MVP in 2014.
The failure in 2015 had a lot to do with injuries to key players ( Miggy, V Mart and JV, Nathan). With them being healthy and the kids having one more year under their belts, 2016 can be a playoff team.
Guy’s, youth is good, but can they play. At this point the jury is still out. The shortstop cannot stay on the field, the third baseman has shown to be just average, the catcher appears to be average, and the Center fielder appears to be below average…no star players. The only potential stars are Norris and Fulmer, maybe.
i didn’t forget. just beyond Iglesias you didn’t mention a lot of impact players.
Being young is good… being young AND good would be much better, though.
And 50 million doesn’t go nearly as far as it used to when Ace pitchers and going for 25+ million annually and the best hitters close to the same.
Just because young Detroit players don’t have “east coast hype”, does not mean they will not be impact players.
McCann is certainly an impact player. He may even be the captain of the team by the end of the year. He may be the best 2 way catcher in baseball that is under 25 by the end of next year.
Norris and Fulmer have a very high probability of being impact players.
Castellanos is only 23 and already has 2 years of experience under his belt. He is still learning and still has big upside.
Wilson is a diamond in the rough. He has had two straight solid seasons. No reason to think he cannot keep it up.
Boyd is a bit of a wildcard, but there is no denying there is talent there.
I am a Tigers fan, but would not list Fulmer (probably a half season or more away), Wilson (kinda like listing Hardy), or Boyd (gave up HR’s like he was playing wiffle ball). They may be young, but they are not contributors. You did forget about Holaday, Gose, and Greene.
What’s wrong with the Tigers? A bad pitching staff… Verlander, Norris, and several starters with FIPs of 4.60 or higher.
Wow, then the defense must be amazing then!.. since their FIP is so much higher than their ERA. I heard that defense is pretty important to win championships, no?
JV was nearly back to “MustSeeJV” at the end of the year when he finally recovered 100%. He is exactly the same age and Zach Grienke for some perspective.
Norris was also dominant at the end of the year. He is 23.
Well Sanchez was hurt, and Avila said he’d get 2 starters this offseason. So that makes at least 4 good starters- 5 if Sanchez comes back healthy
Yea, when is the last time they won the World Series? And one of the worst bullpens in all of baseball. Old pitching on top of it all. Lots wrong in Detroit.
Just goes to show and further supports my case that WAR is completely useless and IS IN FACT an arbitrary number.
Padres took advantage of the Red Sox desperation and surplus devaluing margot and guerra who were blocked.
In the long run Margot and Guerra would have been better suited chasing after a starting pitcher to supplement signing Cueto or Price.
Could have offered the Mets margot guerra and 2 better pospects for Matz, or tried Margot maybe guerra and others for wheeler or montero. Surplus for surplus. Of course other parts have to be hammered out.
Mets have harvey wheeler matz degrom montero syndergaard. Harvey degrom syndergaard arent on the table but matz maybe and wheeler / tjs and montero possobly.
So where do the Red Sox get an elite BP arm? Certainly not in this years FA class. In the age of SP’ers going 6-7 IP, even elite SP’ers, a strong bullpen is more essential than ever, as the Royals showed despite a not so great rotation. One of the benefits of a very strong farm system is you can afford to splurge once in awhile. They have plenty of prospects to go along with a number of former prospects who are in their pre-arb years. Don’t weep for the Red Sox. Neither of those 2 were enough on their own to get a top SP’er
You dont need elite bullpen arms. Nationals tried that, didn’t work so well. Clippard would be my first thought as he doesnt have a QO attached. But drew storen as a buy low candidate would be a good place to look. Had a bad season unhappy in washington. If you’re going to splurge ken giles made more sense. Less financial commitment.
Nationals tried and failed at that. Their elite arms didn’t pitch well down the stretch. It’s not a failure of the concept, as the Royals proved it can work, it’s a failure of those individual pitchers.
Royals are one of the few instances where it worked. Dodgers nationals yankees astros all tried building elite bullpens via free agents trades drafts. Failed when it matters most.
You dont need an elite pen or elite arms in bullpen. You need a solid one that is consitent across the board.
I would NEVER call the Dodgers’ bullpen elite! Not even close hahaha
They tried to construct an elite pen. Howell league theyve tried signing people but it hasn’t panned out. Trying to build a pen with good arms to be dominate and it faiing doesnt negate them trying to in the 1st place.
I mean the yankees pen seemed to work fine this year and in years prior, their main problem has been a lack of starting pitching and an offense that was homerun or bust in previous years and all but nonexistant the last month of the past season and postseason.
So, you think Dombrowski didn’t ask what it would have taken to get Matz,or one of the other Mets starters? I’m pretty sure Margot, Guerra, etc weren’t enough. Otherwise they would be announcing that deal instead of the Kimbrel deal. Shot in the dark, the Mets wanted Bogaerts and Dombrowski said no. It doesn’t hurt to ask, but Guerra/Margot wasn’t getting that deal done. Prospect packages from the A-AA level only work when the team in question is rebuilding. Not to a team that is looking to compete next season. And since they made the World Series this season, I can’t see them looking to stockpile prospects that are 1-3 years away.
Which is why I said Wheeler or montero. Dombrowski may not have wanted to risk on a tjs pitcher but doubt the mets said bogaerts when they’d do wheeler for jay bruces salary.
Wheeler isn’t an Ace. He isn’t going to lead your staff and he’s not a real upgrade on a guy like Buchholz or even Rodriguez. And I’m, having trouble figuring why they’d want Montero. Is he even healthy? I mean if that’s a direction they wanted to go in they should have the pieces to get the deal done. I wouldn’t give up much for a guy who was shut down last season and the Mets probably aren’t interested in selling low. Is he going to be your Ace? There’s no reason they shouldn’t be able to put together a deal for a guy like Wheeler if they wanted him either. But again the Mets are going to want ML ready players. Travis Shaw and/or Brock Holt could get that conversation started. But it wouldn’t fix the lack of an ace problem.
Prior to injury, Wheeler had some of the best stuff on the staff. His upside is as a #1, even after TJS. The Mets are stacked w. Harvey/deGrom/Syn/Matz, but that shouldn’t detract from Wheeler’s chance to be another frontline starter. There is a reason CIN tried to steal him at the deadline this past yr.
Wheeler (2nd half of 2014, before injury):
W/L: 6-3
ERA:3.04
Bucholz (2015):
W/L: 7-7
ERA: 3.26
Looks like a wash.
Rodriguez (2015, 2nd half)
W/L: 5-4
ERA: 4.04
He is definitely a step down.
As for Montero, I completely agree that he needs to build back his value. His rehab stints in the second half of 2015 were bizarre.
Wheeler may have great stuff, but he’s not an ace. Maybe some day but not now. He’s never thrown 200 innings in a season and he has a career ERA of 3.50. Nice pitcher. Solid number two, but Buchholz has great stuff too. Doesn’t mean I want him as the ace. You need more than stuff to be an ace. The potential is still there, but the TJS is a concern. Until he proves healthy there are still question marks. Guys don’t come back from that sometimes. It happens.
Adding to mookie’s point, during the trade deadline, the mets tried to trade wheeler for a year and a half of Gomez… So that is likely his value. I’d personally stay away until I see him come back from TJS as he said.
Cincy may have tried to steal him, but they didn’t offer much at all. Wheeler is a tease. Great arm, but not much of a pitcher.
Never said ace. I said supplement cueto or price, you know ace pitchers. With degrom syndergaard harvey matz one of wheeler montero become expendable for talent. Talent whether ml ready or years away is talent. Successful franchises dont just trade for mlb ready pieces.
Travis shaw or holt dont even come close to wheeler.
Is their any fan in baseball who would not give up 4 prospects for a serious chance at world series in the next 3 years? Of course Kimbrel is not the sole piece but the Red Sox did pretty good when you look at what they had for starters the money is obviously around to sign a major starter or two. Prospects hitting in the minors doesn’t sell tickets in Boston.
I think the perception of the Tigers is widely thrown off because major pundits way undervalue the Tigers system for some reason. Burrows will be in the top 100 very soon, Jacoby Jones has some of the best tools in baseball and is actually proving he can hit a baseball in the AFL. Kubitza, Ziomek, Verhagen have all flashed signs of being valuable rotation pieces. It may not be the greatest but it is far from barren as people try to make it seem.
The system still isn’t great, but now at least there is legitimate talent in the system, which was a big problem before the 2015 draft and trade deadline
The Tigers drafted Jake Thompson, and received low marks for the draft from the pundits, with them specifically mentioning his low upside. Traded to the Rangers for Soria, he suddenly became a prospect, and upon his trade to Philly, is being raved about. Devon Travis is pooh-poohed, even after being ranked #1, because its #1 in the Tigers system. Upon his trade to Toronto, he becomes the favorite for rookie of the year, until his injury. Willie Adames was not even listed as a top prospect before he was included in the David Price deal. He immediately became Tampa Bay’s top prospect. Yeah, right, there is no bias towards the big markets when rating prospects.
Xander Bogaerts for Matt Harvey. Who hangs up first?
Not giving up bogaerts for him. No chance.
Nope
The Sox which I hope they do, Harvey’s not a team player and acts likes he above the team. Plus I don’t a player that argues with his manager because he doesn’t get his way. Hope the Sox stay away from him he’s not worth Bogaerts.
You can’t just say no to a trade if you don’t like the players attitude… 20 years ago, would you have said no to a trade for bonds because you don’t like his attitude?
Mets. As good as bogaerts is, mets reject the offer because young power pitching is the most impactful asset you can have on a team.
Tell that to the Royals.
The Mets pissed away game 1 and their BP continued to let them down. Replay that series 9 more times and the Mets win 7 of them.
Heh …
Who have young/prime power bullpen pitchers in Kelvin Herrara, Wade Davis and Greg Holland…
They still had good starting pitching. But they also had the best overall offense (in my opinion) and the best bullpen. You can’t win on starting pitching alone, but you can’t tell me that Harvey wouldn’t be huge in another playoff series. Remember bumgardner?
I remember Harvey pouting to Collins to go back in and then quickly blowing the game. That’s what I remember. Bumgarner. HA!
I also remember the Cubs getting swept by the Mets in the NLCS…
Haha aw man, I’m sort of a Cubs fan man… Why’d you have to bring up those wounds while they are still so fresh? :'(
Think Chris Young beating those Mets. Chris bleepin Young and his 86 mph fastball.
You get my point… Power pitching (especially young power pitching) makes a HUGE impact. Think Verlander game 5 against the A’s a few years back, think about arrieta vs the Pirates, etc.
Sox. Mets fans are going to go nuts now. Thing they need to realize though is that ALL OF BASEBALL knows that the Mets have a (good) problem, too many starting pitchers. So no one is going to overpay for one of their young arms. If anyone does overpay it will be for Syndergaard. Why? Because of Harvey, deGrom, Matz, Wheeler, and Syndergaard, Syndergaard is the only one with a clean injury history. Every other pitcher listed has at least 1 Tommy John surgery under their belt. Matz is probably the most dicey with his injury history. In terms of who I’D value most out of those pitchers is….. Syndergaard, deGrom, Harvey, Wheerler, Matz. Harvey not only has TJ surgery on his resume but he also seems to be a distraction in the clubhouse. Not sure how much of that is “New York” or if he really is the pompous, narcissistic person he seems to be. Him pouting and crying to Collins the last game of the WS to go back in and then subsequently blow the game also doesn’t help his cause much either. As a Cub fan the Cubs have been talked about being perfect trading partners with the Mets for one of those arms. I’m hoping if the two do meet up and make a deal it isn’t until next year. I want to see if Harvey, Matz, and Wheeler are fully recovered from their injuries and to see if they turn into the next Josh Johnson, which is my biggest worry. And I want to see deGrom get one more year removed from his TJ surgery. And finally, I want to see if Syndergaard succumbs to the TJ bug that is going around in that Mets’ system. The Sox just traded their best SS prospect I believe so who would take over for Bogaerts if dealt? SS is a premium position and not too many hit .320…… which Bogaerts just did. Bogaerts also flashed 20 HR power in the minors so that power could start showing in a year or 2. So as of right now….. I’d say no if I was the Red Sox.
It isn’t a problem to have 4 frontline pitchers (plus Wheeler) bc guys get dinged up. Niese is a #4 (#3 on a weak staff) who will be a 5/6 once Wheeler comes back. Their depth is a luxury, not a problem.
Their BP though….it’s a dumpster fire of unknowns outside of Familia. I like Robles and Goeddel, but they are 7th inning guys, not shutdown 8th/9th closers.
It’s a problem when you already have your only 2 young positional prospects on the team already in D’Arnaud and Conforto. They have positional prospects but they’re all pretty mediocre. Bleacher Report re-ranked the 30 MLB farm systems and put the Mets at 14, and that’s mainly because Matz was still listed as a prospect. They need bonafide help at a lot of positions. David Wright is aging fast, and granderson isn’t getting any younger either. Murphy is on the way out, so they really need some help ASAP.
Bogaerts is worth more than Harvey, strictly from a baseball perspective. 21 YO SS coming off of a very good year (.320/.355/.421), with 5 years of team control, two at league minimum. I think Harvey’s attitude problems are overrated, but he’s not worth one of the best young SS in baseball
True… Bogaerts has one more year of control. I still think I’d rather have Harvey on my team. I think it’d be easier to replace bogaerts than Harvey too. For example, you could get a could defensive SS and try to replace the missing offense from other position players, whereas you can’t do that as well with a young power ace
23-year-old Xander Bogaerts, who has two years and 42 days of MLB service, remains under team control for four years, including three arbitration seasons.
Ok thanks fair points. I didn’t verify his age or service time. Regardless, he still has one extra year of controllability and one more pre-arbitration year and is very young, so my original point remains
Also, in addition to Price, Greinke, Cueto, and Zimmerman there are a ton of other solid SPs on the market right now that won’t cost the future, AKA farm system. Chen, Gallardo, Iwakuma, Samardzija, Leake, and kazmir all could be SOLID #3 pitchers. That’s 10 solid SPs. Then there are potential aging/reclamation projects/lower tier pitchers in Lincecum, Beachy, Lackey, Fister, Josh Johnson, Ian Kennedy, and Mat Latos. That being said, why sell the farm for one pitcher when you can buy a couple of them and maybe an iffy reclamation project in Lincecum or Fister….. or Latos. Latos being the most interesting. Point being, with so many options on the market I doubt there will be too many anxious buyers on the mets doorstep. I’m sure there will be inquiries, but they’ll probably get laughed at when they hear how much they want for one of them if the Mets fans on here are any indication on how the front office might feel. Is a Bogaerts for either Harvey or deGrom fair? Yeah, I’d say it is. I’d rather sit tight though and see if the TJs in New York can stay healthy for one more year.
I don’t get what the big deal is. IMO I see maybe Margot panning out and Guerra maybe being a utility player….. if that. He’s super young still though and just played A ball this year. Plenty of time for him to either get better or bust out, in other words…. I’d say he he has less than a 50-50 shot at panning out just because he really hasn’t wowed me in the minors. .269 BA, .327 OBP, 17 HRs, 15 SBs with 18 CS, 1/3 BB/K ratio in 937 minor league plate appearances – half of which in rookie ball and the other half in A ball. Those aren’t impressive numbers from a guy so far down in the system. So yeah, I’m thinking utility player at best right now. Asuaje just made double A this year and didn’t have all that impressive of a season. He too at best is a utility player in my eyes. Logan Allen was just drafted and only pitched 24 innings this year. Hard to gauge him on such a small sample. He’ll only be 19 in May. He had a solid year…. in those 24 innings, most of which were in rookie ball. Point, he’s likely at least 4 years away….. it’s impossible to judge what kind of pitcher he is. One thing is certain though, he’s a VERY low level prospect at this point. His 1 BB and 26 Ks in those 24 IP is pretty stellar though, but can he keep that up over more than like 1/6 of a minor league season, which 24 IP is. So in my eyes, best case scenario, the Sox gave up a starting OFer, 2 utility infielders, and a low level prospect for probably the best closer in the game. Not bad. Would I personally want to see my team deal for what I consider wasted money at an overrated position? No. But for what it’s worth I think the Sox win this trade. I just don’t see the point paying a closer $12+ mil a year. The Cubs have done a nice job, and it was relatively easy, on building a bullpen from within and trading for afterthought pitching prospects or young ML relievers in Rondon, Neil Ramirez, Grimm, and Strop. Arrieta and Strop for Scott Feldman and Steve Cleavenger is still probably the best trade Hoyer and Theo have ever pulled off. People put all the attention on Arrieta in that deal and rightfully so, but they also got a solid set up man in Strop in that deal as well. For pretty much a journeyman #5 starter and a backup catcher. Strop was actually the main guy in that trade the Cubs wanted to strengthen the bullpen because he had showed success in Baltimore. Arrieta was just an experiment that I’d say panned out pretty nicely, haha. Ask Orioles fans, give it a year or 2 before you judge a trade. I’m sure most of oriole nation probably didn’t think much of this trade, and if they were upset it was because at the time Strop was possibly going to be transitioned into a future closer for them….. not because they coughed up Arrieta.
I think it might be a little more rigorous to rely on professional evaluators take on prospects, having seen them multiple times and gone deep into numbers, rather than the 10 second glance at topline stats that you’ve apparently done. Both Guerra and Margot are Top 50 in all of baseball prospects.
So was Brandon wood
No they’re not. Guerra isn’t even a ranked prospect. At least not pre-2015. maybe his yawn inspiring .279 BA and .329 OBP and 27 errors this year in single A ball…. SINGLE A BALL… makes him a top 100 prospect for some reason. In my logic based world it doesn’t though. Between Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and MLB.com’s rankings pre-2015 Margot was on average their 77th ranked prospect. Not quite top 50. Honestly though, if you’re not a top 20 prospect it’s really just a number. I never understood why they rank 100 prospects. 50 is more than enough and over half of them will still disappoint. Why do people think “experts” on these topics are any different from a diehard fan? That’s all they are, glorified fans of the game. Scouts….. only advantage they have is they get to watch them play, but let’s be honest, what’s the bust/pan out rate among prospects? Are they even really that good at their jobs? IMO scouts are glorified “experts” and “experts” are glorified fans. And GMs are glorified scouts. Point being, I really don’t think their job would be all that hard. I mean look at the great scouting of Jurickson Profar, Dominic Brown, and even Jay Bruce and Jason Heyward. Those last two have had good careers to date, but they haven’t even come close to the hype scouts put on their backs. Heyward was supposed to be like a .300+ hitting 35+ HR hitter with 30+ SB speed. Bruce was supposed to be a .280 hitter who’d mash 40+ HRs regularly. Profar……. bwahahaha. Ask the Padres if they still employ the scout who convinced them to draft Matt Bush. Or the Cubs and #3 overall pick Josh Vitters. Luke Hochevar was a #1 pick and I’d say he was a bust. He has been good as a reliever the last 3 years, 2 of which he’s played in. But still. He was a #1 SP draft pick. Not a middle reliever. I can go on and on here but I think you get the point. IMO the player in the deal that could be the best player in about 4-5 years is Logan Allen…. but his sample size is so small in the minors it’s impossible to give a true opinion. However, in his 24.1 IP I do like what I see. Specifically that 1 walk in those 24 innings. 1 WALK. That’s the most impressive stat among the 4 prospects the Padres received IMO. That’s a pace for like 8-9 walks over 200 IP. Then he K’d batters at a 9.4 K/9 clip. So about 210 Ks vs. 9 BBs in a season…….. that would be crazy. I’m getting ahead of myself on Allen, but he’s the most intriguing in my eyes. Too bad he’s at least 5 years away from the bigs seeing as he’s going to be only 19 in 2016. That would make for a debut at age 23. I hope Padre fans like waiting.
What do the Cubs have to do with this post?
Overrated? I don’t think so. Overpaid? Yes. The Cubs did so well because their starters were able to go 6-8 innings limiting the bullpen. The Royals just showed that two (three if you want to count Holland when he was healthy) dominant bullpen guys can change a game. When Holland was healthy, all they needed was 6 innings (and 7 after he got hurt) from their starter because the pen could finish the game for them. The Mets also lost the World Series because their pen, specifically their closer, couldn’t hold a lead.
Really they weren’t in bad shape if they only got 5 from a starter, could go Madson-Herrerra-Davis-Holland
the cubs starters didnt go deep in to games. arrietta and lester went deep in to games. all other starters had short leashes and were even pulled before the 5th having allowed 0 runs and no pitch count issues. strop, rondon, grimm and wood were all excellent in bullpen roles.
The Reds are insane if they honestly think this deal doesn’t affect their market.
The Reds have an elite closer available. Boston wanted an elite closer. Boston gave up some very good pieces for an elite closer…to a team other than the Reds. How does that not affect you?
Just another example of a front office with gross misconceptions of reality
Chapmans value should be much less than Kimbrel. 1 year > 3 years.
I wouldn’t say “much” less, but yes less.
Chapman should still pull 2 top prospects
Does the Benoit deal have any influence on his value. Both are expensive and have one year left on the contract.
Also doesn’t change the fact that the Reds seem averse to doing the things everyone in baseball knows need to happen.
Good teams proactively make moves to improve their clubs. The Reds, not so much
Also doesn’t change the fact that Reds seem averse to making the moves everyone in baseball knows needs to happen.
Good teams proactively improve their clubs. The Reds, not so much.