12:10am: Frisaro tweets that while he hasn’t confirmed anything, he gets the sense that the Marlins covet Walker. However, he adds that the Marlins also aren’t going to give away Ozuna’s potential 30-homer bat in exchange for Elias, thus suggesting that if a trade is ultimately reached, it will be substantial in nature.
10:25pm: Walker “isn’t available,” tweets Crasnick, and Paxton’s health concerns might not great enough that the Marlins wouldn’t part with Ozuna, raising the question of whether or not Elias or Karns would entice Miami.
10:00pm: Frisaro now tweets that the Marlins and Mariners could be aiming to complete a larger deal than just Ozuna for a pitcher. Crasnick tweeted earlier today that many expect Dipoto to trade Mark Trumbo again this winter (he dealt Trumbo from Anaheim to Arizona when he was GM of the Angels), though Trumbo’s lofty arb projection ($9.1MM, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) and the presence of Justin Bour in Miami make Trumbo an imperfect fit for the Fish.
9:48pm: MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tweets that the Marlins are “fielding a lot of calls” on Ozuna currently, adding that he’s not sure anything is imminent. MLB.com’s Greg Johns also adds (Twitter link) that it “doesn’t sound like anything is imminent.”
9:20pm: Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald cites multiple sources in reporting that the Marlins could be looking at Elias and/or Karns (Twitter link).
8:55pm: The Mariners and Marlins are working on a trade that would send outfielder Marcell Ozuna from Miami to Seattle, reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter link). If consummated, the move would continue what has been an incredibly active offseason for new Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto.
The 25-year-old Ozuna has been an oft-speculated trade candidate after Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria soured him this season. Miami reportedly has hoped to acquire young pitching in any trade of Ozuna, and the Mariners have plenty of controllable arms that could attract the Marlins’ attention. Left-handers James Paxton and Roenis Elias both have substantial amounts of team control remaining, as does right-hander Taijuan Walker and even the recently acquired Nate Karns. Of course, each of those names is just a speculative fit and any could require additional pieces from either side to change hands. Walker and Paxton probably have the highest ceilings of the bunch, though each has a notable injury history at a young age.
Ozuna enjoyed an excellent 2014 campaign in which he batted .269/.317/.455 with 23 homers in his age-23 season despite his pitcher-friendly home park. However, he slumped out of the gates in 2015 and at one point went through a dismal 1-for-36 slump that earned him a trip to Triple-A. Ozuna hit well in the minors, and the length of his demotion led agent Scott Boras to question the Marlins’ motives, alleging that the team was keeping his client in Triple-A to lessen the likelihood of reaching Super Two status by suppressing his service time. Ozuna ultimately fell shy of Super Two designation by roughly one week of service time. Upon returning, Ozuna likened the demotion to a “jail sentence,” which unsurprisingly didn’t sit well with Loria. I profiled Ozuna as a trade candidate at length shortly after his recall, and it’s worth noting that Ozuna produced a robust .286/.329/.487 line from the time that piece was written through season’s end. He’s controllable for another four seasons and won’t be arb-eligible until next winter.
If the Mariners are to acquire Ozuna, he’d presumably become an option in right field, thereby shifting Nelson Cruz into a primarily designated hitter role. Leonys Martin’s glove probably makes him the preferred option in center field, while Dipoto has already expressed that he expects Franklin Gutierrez and Seth Smith to platoon in left field.
To call Dipoto “active” thus far would be an understatement. Since taking over as the top baseball operations decision-maker in Seattle, he’s acquired Karns from the Rays in a six-player trade, landed late-inning reliever Joaquin Benoit from the Padres in exchange for a pair of prospects, acquired Martin from the division-rival Rangers and picked up utilityman Luis Sardinas from the Brewers in exchange for a minor league outfielder. Dipoto has also re-signed Gutierrez and brought Chris Iannetta to Seattle on a one-year deal in addition to making a pair of waiver claims in the first month or so of the offseason.
Go look at James Paxton’s numbers and tell me how he is good, even leaving aside his huge medical red flags.
When he is healthy he has been a very good pitcher for the mariners from what i have seen from him and i watch almost every mariners game. He does have injury flags though
Absolutely. Only reason can think that Paxton is being mentioned is Boras client for Boras client and fairly equal times of service.
I wouldn’t in no way, shape or form trade Paxton for Ozuna however. Young power lefty, who has shown that when he stays healthy can dominate with an upper 90’s FB that touches 98-99 and sits 95+? No chance.
Paxton also can’t stay on the field
You mean a career 3.13 ERA? That’s very good.
Thank you. I don’t understand the holiness people up here place on him.
I feel bad for Stanton who is a great human being.
This team is horribly owned and outside of Stanton nothing can save their terrible decision making.
It hurts to see such a once in a generation player on such a dysfunctional organization.
I don’t know what it is with Cuban players, but like Fernandez the major names in MLB seem to have this sense of self entitlement about them.
Take note on Harper and see how far cockiness gets you in regards to respect amongst fans. You may win a MVP, but you will never be respected like a humble player such as Trout or McCutchen.
I think they are being a little rough on you bogaerts. As an M’s fan, what I see with Paxton is a guy that has the stuff but struggles staying 1) healthy and 2) getting thru 5 to 6 innings on 100 pitches. He has potential to be a TOR guy if he can miss more bats or something. I can’t quite put my finger on it. A 6 inning starter just doesn’t cut it for a TOR guy.
Look at Paxton’s stats from April 30 on and tell me that he’s not good.
I would think Paxton for Ozuna straight up would be a solid deal.
I think that would be a pretty good deal
No it wouldnt. Paxton’s injury history is a major concern. 2 seasons hasnt topped 100 innings yet. Other pieces would need to be added.
I bet if it’s Paxton for Ozuna, there will be more players going both ways with a bit more talent leaning towards Miami.
The M’s acquired Boog Powell from Tampa. The guy can cover CF and the Marlins are going to need something in CF with Ozuna moving on. the pieces could be there for Paxton/Ozuna.
Ozuna is apparently a “clubhouse problem,” according to management. That will lower his stock, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a straight up deal. Depends on the competition with other teams I suppose.
He isn’t a clubhouse problem. Loria just doesn’t like him b/c it’s Loria
That’s too light for Ozuna, who’s only 25 in 2016, in my opinion would Seattle need to add a prospect or two if Paxton was in the deal. He’s 2 years older, and got some talent but is never healthy and was straight up bad in 2015 (4.31 FIP, 0.5 fWAR). Ozuna wasn’t allowed to battle through a fairly obvious sophomore slump for some reason like many other young stars are, and still had a 1.1 fWAR anyway. Ozuna’s ceiling is higher because of his age and health and for that, he deserves to bring in more than one decent piece.
FIP is a projection. He pitched to a 3.90 ERA, which isn’t ‘straight up bad.’
As for Ozuna, you’re talking about a guy whos been a league average hitter since his debut and isn’t anything special in CF.
Go ahead and say he wasn’t allowed to battle through a slump, but he still had his fair share of ABs.
He was pretty good in CF before he came into camp a little out of shape last year
A League average hitter who plays CF is an above average player. Especially with the potential of being an above average hitter.
Its not above average if he isn’t good in CF. He was very below average last year.
B/c he was out of shape early. When he came back, he was better. Before that, he was really good out there
In his rookie season he played great. He is probably an average CF defensively which is still a good asset.
metrics had him as slightly below average. Overall he’s been worth 2.79 fWAR per 600 PA’s in his career which is around average. He has huge power projection going forward as he showed last year, and should be an above average starter going forward.
“FIP is a projection” – um ok no it isnt?
fangraphs.com/library/pitching/fip/
A 4.31 FIP is” straight up bad”. It means he was getting out of jams thanks to good defense behind him, hence the 3.90 ERA – which isn’t actually that great either.
You are overvaluing Paxton and undervaluing Ozuna if you think they are worthy of each other in a trade. Ho hum, we will see who’s right in a few…
“Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA would look like over a given period of time if the pitcher were to have experienced league average results on balls in play and league average timing.”
Its a projection of what his ERA would look like if he had league average defense..
A projection looks forward. FIP is not a projection. That simple.
Exactly. Fangraphs literally says “FIP is a statistic”.
How is FIP not a projection? ERA is the exact result. FIP measures “if’s”.
I dont think you understand FIP or projections..
I don’t you do either. Its a stat, not a projection. I even posted the link to the official definition but sure thing, fangraphs is wrong and Brixton and you are right. Okayyy…
Since when is a 3.90 ERA not good, and you definatly dont understand fip
Paxton is way more valuable than Ozuna in my opinion. Both have yet to hit their potential but i value starting pitching a lot more than a position player. Especially when young and controllable. Sub 4 era pitchers are an amazing asset and I believe paxton could be a low 3 era guy if he stays healthy.
Good, Controllable Position players (especially ones that can play CF) are way more hard to find than pitching.
Power is kind of hard to find right now though, and Ozuna is very toolsy. He reminds me of a combination of Andruw Jones and Vlad Guerrero
You are way off in all those assessments.
Well, I’ve seen him play every day for the last 3 years, most of it live. I can tell you he is extremely talented. He got called up after 10 games above A ball. The key for him is understanding pitch sequencing. Regardless of that, he will still give you good production. There were extenuating circumstances for his final slash line. It’s not indicative of what he did outside of a stretch where he was in a really big slump
That’s a big if that hasn’t came true yet.
Well, unless we’re actually getting Walker, it looks like we are moving an asset at 25 cents on the dollar, as is the usual, especially over the last year and a half, not that I think the Mariners should move Walker for Ozuna. Trading Ozuna for a young, controllable arm, after giving away multiple young arms and other assets last year is just another frustrating result of being a Marlins fan. We could easily sign a couple of shorter term contracts on mid tier SPs, and easily afford it with so little money committed
My thoughts exactly. Other than Dee Gordon and the big Toronto trade, this team has a knack for buying high and selling low.
The Dee gordon deal was abhorrent, and we didn’t get either of Sybdergaard or d’Arnaud, while the Mets got both for a 39 year old knuckle baller toronto had to sign to an extension
You didn’t get the best players the Jays had in the farm because you gave them 4 expensive veterans and Emilio Bonifico..
It was a very good deal for the Marlins, but I personally thought that they could have got 1 of those guys.
As a Met fan….I’m happy w. how it went down. As a former “regular” at Marlins games (10-15/yr), it’s just another way for Loria to abuse his fanbase…that guy sucks.
“just another frustrating result of being a Marlins fan”
Consider yourself lucky that you have two WS titles – 41 yr old Mariners Fan
We are a classless non baseball organization. It’s embarrassing and a dark mark on the game, which is uncceptable. Its not losing that bothers me about this organization. Would rather be the Mariners than deal with an entitled owner who had nothing to do with the world series wins, yet acts as if he was the reason for them. Loria came in 2002, and we had essentially the same roster we had in 1998 in 2003. All Dombrowski’s guys under John Henry.
It will be Elias plus some. I can’t see Paxton because of the injury flags. No way it’s Walker.
Paxton with injuries is worth more than Elias. However if it’s Elias I will be a very happy person.
I can see multiple pieces moved on both sides.
Would the marlins have any interest in mark trumbo?
I think they have a good young 1B already.
They have Bout who’s a lefty. Would make a nice platoon
Who’d the Mariners then put at 1B? Outside of Chris Davis (who won’t be coming here) not many great options. Maybe Napoli or Morneau?
Im not sure but ive heard the mariners gm is trying to trade trumbo and he traded him away when he was the angels gm. They have jesus montero who plays 1st now but they would need to sign someone else
We don’t want Montero as our starting 1B, even if you want to sign a FA there aren’t many options that are decent outside of Napoli or Morneau (Chris Davis out of the question). I don’t think one year of Trumbo is worth a ton.
He wasn’t all that good by the numbers last year; he put up low offense for a first baseman.
They have in the past, and they’re looking for someone to platoon at 1b with Bour, and I’d bet they’d be dumb enough to put him in LF, with Yelich playing CF
Would a trumbo and elias and maybe another prospect for ozuna and capps be a fair trade?
Lol no, but the Marlins would consider it b/c they just don’t really care.
This would be very favorable for the Mariners, obviously depending on what that 3rd prospect is. I doubt the Marlins pull the trigger on that one.
I would have doubted that they pull the trigger on almost every move they made in the last yar, but they did
There’s probably a lot of moves you didn’t even hear about that fell through.
What if it was dj peterson?
He is still a wildcard who needs more time in the minors. He hasn’t excelled at AAA yet. He only batted .223 between AA and AAA last season.
What is with all the trades being proposed being severely one-sided in the Mariners favor??? Carter Capps had the best peripheral stats of any reliever last year for relievers who pitched 30 innings or more. He had a 1.3 fWAR in 30 innings. He could be traded straight up for Walker and it would be fair.
I’m going to guess Elias, Trumbo with the Mariners paying his arb, and a whatever pitching prospect, with a bullpen arm going back to Seattle with Ozuna. Seems like a marlins type move…..
I see Elias trumbo paying his Arb and David Rollins, for Marcell Ozuna and Tom Koehler idk I think Ozuna for Paxton would be better for both sides
That would be even worse for the Marlins (the trade you proposed)
I didn’t say it made sense I think one pitcher for Ozuna would be more sensible
There’s absolutely no reason to have Justin Bour and Mark Trumbo on the same NL team.
A platoon at first base, and a pinch hitter late in the game. So yes, yes there is.
NL teams don’t carry spare 1Bmen too much. Trumbo just isnt going to the Marlins unless they’re getting an elite in return to where theyd just eat the salary on Trumbo and release him immediately.
I would just like to thank DiPoto for making this a very entertaining offseason thus far.
ya this guy is on a mission.
He’s the only one doing work so far, its weird.
Nate Karns and Boog Powell for Ozuna. LoMo, Miller, and Farquhar is turned into Reifenhauser and Ozuna.
Twitter rumors are reporting its Karns and Elias for Ozuna. M’s could then turn around an sign a big name FA SP.
DiPoto just talked about making the rotation longer I doubt he trades two Major league ready SPs unless he gets one in return.
That’s just what this very site is reporting…but sure, you know better….
Just throwing this out there as a weird what if. But, what if this develops into one of those “starts out small” trades that turns into Cano getting flipped to the Marlins? What would the logistics of that look like, if it was even feasible (9 times out of 10, it doesn’t look close to it).
Cano isnt getting traded.
1. Cano isn’t getting traded.
2. You think Loria would accept having 2 players combining for over 500M?
If the Marlins had $300-400M in contracts to send back the other way, then sure.
Cano and Cruz for Stanton and Gordon… Lol
Paxton for Ozuna would be an ok deal. Dumping Ozuna for Elias or Karns would be awful though.This is a guy one year removed from a 4 win season with well above average offense and solid defense as a 23 year old. I know Loria hates him for whatever reason, but you can’t move a talent like that for a 4 or 5 starter.
You are making the mistake of considering us a baseball organization
Karns is a much better asset than Paxton and would project as a #2 in the NL, especially in a pitcher’s park.
Karns is a safer bet, but Paxton has the higher ceiling I think.
I hope they don’t have to give up Walker.
Lots of teams now rifling through their young SP’s to see if they can beat the Mariners’ offer. Elias or Paxton for Ozuna would be a nice deal for the M’s.
I can see this being a three-team deal involving the Reds. Cincinnati is said to be quite interested in Ozuna. Seattle and Miami are believed to be interested in Aroldis Chapman. Cincinnati has a plethora of young pitching to offer.
Now I need to go through the Reds MLB and Minor League rosters and Rosterbate all the possibilities. thanks!
I much prefer Ozuna’s upside to Paxton and think he could be a breakout candidate given some of his flyball data, kind of like Grandal before his injury last year though you could argue Ozuna has already kind of had a breakout year. Paxton’s upside to me is a mid rotation guy add in that the medical concerns and I think that would be a lopsided deal if he was the top piece going to Miami. Ozuna definitely isn’t a sure thing but he has 4.5 + fWAR potential, who knows how often or if he will reach it, but I do think an above average starting CF is a fair baseline to set for him going forward given his power and average to above average defense.
DiPoto is trying to be this year’s Preller.
Preller spent millions of dollars on the FA market putting the Padres in a bad position. Dipoto isn’t doing that.
he made 1 relevant FA signing. Really the only deal that was terrible was the Kemp/Grandal one, I’d like to know if there was some ownership push there. I do think however not doing the Fulmer/Upton deal at deadline was bad.
Kemp is going to have a big year – trade has a long way to go before being terrible
Every year is gonna be the one! Watch out for Kemp!
Dude’s an old DH now, trying to play RF, in a park that’s a disaster for him.
I thought it was the Mets who refused to trade Fulmer, until after the Gomez trade fell through.
Actually Preller really didn’t sign anyone on the free agent market outside of Clint Barmes. He got all those guys via trade.
Shields
I like what DiPoto has done and Preller has created excitement in San Diego while bringing in talented players, everyone loves to jump on Preller. 16 months into his job he has totally remade the farm system, the major league roster, coaches have even been totally changed – AJ has done what was needed
If by “remade” you mean “decimated,” then sure, yeah.
I was actually just referring to how active he’s been in making moves this offseason, just like Preller was last year.
It remains to be seen if they turn out to be good moves or not.
Blockbuster of the year
SEA Trades: P Taijuan Walker, P Roenis Elias, 1B Mark Trumbo, OF Alex Jackson, C Mike Zunino, P Tony Zynch
MIA Trades: P Jose Fernandez, OF Marcel Ozuna, P Carter Capps
Would never trade Walker so already wouldn’t happen.
That and trading Zunino without a catcher coming back would make no sense. If he was still in the minors (as in little to no MLB time) then his inclusion would make sense, but even with his terrible numbers he is still one of the best defensive catchers and since he is young, still has the potential to develop into a solid bat.
Zunino is a borderline failed prospect at this point.
He’s a 24 year old catcher (probably the slowest position for players to develop) who has elite defensive skills. His bat in the minors was excellent and he was promoted to the major leagues at 22 years old after spending about a year in the minors. The organization realizes they rushed him and brought in Iannetta for the whole purpose of trying to ease Zunino back. Has he struggled? Without a doubt. Coming from a Mariners fan, I’ve been frustrated with his play, but I understand he was rushed through the system. But his elite defense will ensure that he at least has a spot in the MLB, if he can start hitting well again he is going go be one of the top catchers.
Severely lopsided in Seattle’s favor.
Marlins can also have chris taylor and jesus montero
That doesn’t make it any better.
Seattle adds Seager and Cruz and Marlins think about it.
Seager and Cruz??? Then the fish will be including Bour and Stanton?
That’s the worst trade proposal I’ve ever seen on this site. Capps for Walker alone is a fair deal. Seattle would need to put in in Seager and Cruz to make that work.
While I agree that is a crazy trade proposal. Capps for Walker is far from an fair deal. Capps is a very good reliever(Seattle fans are familiar with him since he was once with the M’s) but Walker has #1 Ace potential and no matter how good a reliever is, he is after all someone who couldn’t cut is as a starter.
Steamer projects 2016 WAR of 2.4 for 23-year-old Taijuan Walker and 1.2 for 25-year-old Carter Capps. A team should not trade a promising starter for a reliever.
This season Nelson Cruz posted 4.8 fWAR, valued at $38.5 million, and Kyle Seager 3.9 fWAR, valued at $31.3 million. Marcell Ozuna posted an fWAR of 1.1, valued at $8.5 million.
I assume your proposals are not serious (and I concede Segovia’s proposal is crazy).
Actual Prediction Elias and Kivlehahn for Ozuna
Not enough. That would be a Mariners’ steal.
I’d be OK with letting Taylor and Peterson go. Seems like backtracking if Walker got traded with uncertainty in Iwakuma’s FA status versus his age and recent DL issues.
Walker for Ozuna and Yelich has a loria flavor to it
If that happens that’d be a fleecing by the Mariners. It would then allow us to trade another OF because we’d have 5 viable options. If this happens I’d be depressed if I was a Marlins fan. Luckily for them it won’t.
Walker doesn’t have near that kind of value. He’s a huge question mark. A talented one, but a question mark nonetheless.
Another hitter with a low OBP. Just what the M’s need.
So…is no one going to make a lopsided trade proposal in the Marlins favor? Or is it going to 100% all ridiculous trades that also include the horrendous Mark Trumbo and the utterly unhittable Carter Capps, who’s value is probably the same as Walker’s at this point?
Reality, get into it…
I’m sorry, but how is Capps even close to Walker’s value? Capps is a reliever and is worth 1-1.5 wins per year while Walker has the potential to be 6 win ace. Yeah, you’re right an ace has the same value as a setup reliever.
Elias is a nice pitcher, but why is no one mentioning Montgomery? IMHO he has a much higher ceiling. Miami should go after Montgomery and Karns for Osuna, because I just don’t envision Walker being part of the deal unless the Marlins add a significant piece. Loria has really hurt any leverage his team has in trying to deal Osuna since everyone knows of his dislike for the OF.
Mike Montgomery? Maybe as a throw in. He’s a bust and probably a middle reliever going forward.
I have to totally disagree with that assessment. He has higher upside than Elias and a better mound presence. Elias is somewhat emotional on the mound and it gets him into trouble. Montgomery started off extremely strong before having some serious struggles in August. Kind of typical for a kid with plus stuff who needs to adjust to the bigs.
Mike Montgomery pitched 2 1 hit shutouts this year he had ace potential
I think Ozuna and Paxton are very similar both have good upside and have not reached full potential, they are polar opposite in one regard though Paxton needs to be more aggressive in the strike zone and Ozuna needs to be more patient at the plate. I think switching leagues would help both players in those regards, let Ozuna hit in the bottom of the order in the AL, he will see more pitches. Let Paxton pitch in the NL maybe he will go after hitters more. Both have red flags attached to them too, Ozuna with Attitude? Paxton with health.
I think it would be a pretty fair trade. Paxton when right has the potential to be a legit #1. Upper 90’s fastball and a devastating curve, who would thrive in the NL.
I think Ozuna would be best in the #2 hole hitting in front of Cano and Cruz. Even with his propensity for strike outs he would get better pitches to hit with that kind of protection as opposed to having Iannett/Zunino and Martin at the bottom of the lineup where he would receive none.
for some reason, when i think Ozuna, i think Dom Brown 2.0
Purely from an offensive standpoint I could see the reasoning, but Brown was a complete butcher in the OF.
I’m okay with Elias and Karns and maybe another for Ozuna. Anything more though, and I’m okay passing on him, especially now that we have Martin. All I can say is if Walker is in talks, it better net someone like Stanton as part of a huge package, or Yelich as part of a bigger package too.
I like the moves that Dipoto has made so far though.
If the M’s let two pitchers go for Ozuna, they won’t both be major league pitchers. More likely is Elias, who is out of options, plus a minor league guy at the AAA level like Steve Landazuri, who’s having a strong winter. The M’s might add some depth such as SS Chris Taylor and/or outfielder Stefen Romero to sweeten the deal. The M’s won’t let Walker go, nor likely Paxton, both of whom are potential #1 or #2 starters with very high ceilings.
Some are suggesting that Trumbo and Edgar Martinez (hitting coach brought in at mid-year) really clicked. Trumbo began to look more like a professional hitter as the season progressed (as opposed to a big all-or-nothing swinger). He’s probably penciled in at 1B since the M’s traded Logan Morrison in the Leonys Martin deal with Texas.