Padres right-hander Ian Kennedy will reject the team’s qualifying offer and seek a multi-year deal on the free-agent market, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported yesterday that Kennedy was planning to reject the offer, and he did just that rather than following the path of fellow Scott Boras client Matt Wieters in accepting he one-year pact.
Many have speculated that Kennedy would accept the offer due to a poor start to the season and a problem with home runs in 2015, but the longstanding belief at MLBTR has been that Kennedy’s durability and penchant for strikeouts would lead to a multi-year deal on the open market. The right-hander ranks fourth in the NL in innings pitched dating back to 2011 and he’s averaged 8.5 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 in that time to go along with a 3.89 ERA/3.87 FIP/3.78 xFIP.
The 30-year-old Kennedy did have some struggles in 2015, namely an abnormal susceptibility to home runs. Kennedy logged a dreadful 7.15 ERA through the first two months of the season, but he rebounded with a 3.41 ERA and 137-to-38 K/BB ratio over his final 129 1/3 innings (22 starts).
Over the course of his career, 10.7 percent of fly-balls off Kennedy have turned into home runs, but that number soared to an uncharacteristic — and probably fluky — 17.2 percent in 2015. A return to his normal rate in that regard should lead to dramatically improved bottom-line results from Kennedy, who recorded the best K%-BB% mark of his career this past season.
It’s hard to peg a specific market for the veteran at this point, as none of the starting pitching pieces have fallen into place. Generally, though, he lands comfortably in the mid-tier of free agent rotation options. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes rated him the 19th-best player available, sandwiched between Scott Kazmir and Yovani Gallardo, and predicted that Kennedy will land a deal in the range of four-years and $52MM deal in spite of the QO.
AJ Preller: phew.
Will be interesting to see what he signs for…..2 yrs, $26, or perhaps 3 and $36? Or am I undervaluing the market. To me, 168 IP last year and his numbers at Petco raise some red flags on offering more than 2 years and more $.
He pitches about the same in every park, with good stats in a few notoriously hitter friendly parks. Kennedy is pretty mediocre but he will be equally as mediocre no matter where he plays. Don’t just assume every Padres pitcher is a PETCO product.
1 year $8 million and he doesn’t sign until late-March.
R u crazy, look at the market, late relievers get 3 yrs at $30 mil easy. He is going to get a 3 or 4 yr deal at least probably at $35-45 mil. He blows but the market is through the roof for baseball salaries, even if this is an off season flush with starting pitching. That bum gets paid.
Late relievers that sign for that amount are few and far between and all are dominant with a positive WAR. Papelbon, Robertson and Kimbrel are the only ones at $10 million plus right now and the most is $12.5 million. Kennedy gets FAR less than that.
Who’s going to give up a pick for him?
Your team…
I think he’ll sign with a team who got a low pick, like 25-30 or a team who “don’t care” about giving picks to get a FA
Thank god.
We gambled on Kennedy and Boras’ collective egos overriding the fact that Kennedy really isn’t worth $15.8m annually and it paid off. Good call by Preller.
He doesn’t need to be worth $15.8m annually to make more money. He just needs a multi-year deal, which he will get.
This.
We’ll see
he prolly still would have been better off accepting the offer unless he is trying to get out from the CA tax burden since salary will have to be dialed way down due to the draft pick.
3 factors that indicate that Kennedy will not get anything other than a 1 year deal for far less than the QO.
#1 – This is the largest and deepest FA starting pitching market in history this offseason. The Law of Supply and Demand and history says that other than a few superstars, all the other free agent starters will get less than they would in other years.
#2 – The QO drives down value. Teams are placing a higher and higher value on draft picks. You don’t have to look far to find players coming off much better seasons than the one Kennedy had in 2015 that were forced to accept a 1 year deal for less than the QO. Nelson cruz, Ervin Santana, etc…
#3 – Kennedy just isn’t very good. His WAR and peripherals, 4.51 FIP, 5.08 RA9 & 1.7 HR/9, point to fact that Kennedy’s 4.28 ERA in 2015 was actually a little lucky. His cumulative WAR over the past 3 seasons is 1.1 and his peak is 1.4. That pegs his peak free agent value at $11.2 million and his average value at $2.93 million. WAR has been remarkably accurate in predicting future contracts other than a few isolated superstars. Kennedy probably gets credit for his peak value and not his cumulative value, but that amount is knocked down 30% by the draft pick compensation other teams will have to give up because of the QO.
Add them up and it doesn’t equal an increase in pay nor a long term deal. While they don’t know a whole lot more than we do, the talking heads on sports radio locally and baseball writers have been saying 1 year and $8 million. I think they are right on the money and he probably won’t sign until late in camp. Maybe as high as $10 million on a 1 year deal if some really desperate team with a protected draft pick signs him.
He blows, I completely agree. But surplus for pitching or not he gets multiple yrs because of his age and because he can pitch, period. Pitching is king and masterson got a 1 yr deal @ $9.5 mil coming off of massive injuries and an atrocious season, then there is peavy, he got a 2 yr $24mil deal and he has been anything but good for an entire decade. Then Doug fister, 5 yrs at $85 mil. I will give you that there is an abnormal amount of starting pitching available this winter. And it has tiers, but Kennedy rejects that offer because he and his agent both know he is going to get a deal with a total AAV of between $35-45 mil. That is a crime yes, but that is the market in today’s day of $1-$2 Billion dollar tv contracts.
Not exactly comparing apples to apples.
Peavy did not have the loss of a draft pick from a QO handing over his head and was coming into one of the smallest FA starting pitching markets in decades. Peavy had a 5.2 rWAR in 2012 and 1.5 rWAR in 2013( or if you prefer fWAR 4.4 & 2.1). He was much better than Kennedy in a smaller FA market and no QO/loss of 1st round draft pick and ALL he got was $12.
Doug Fister also did not have a QO hanging over his head and had a 12.6 cumulative rWAR the previous 3 years, 5.2, 3.3 & 4.1. (5.1, 3.4 & 4.2 fWAR). Fister was heads and shoulders better than Kennedy and his contract reflected it.
Better players by far than Kennedy ever has been got one year deals for less than the QO the past 3 years including 3 last year. To try to say Kennedy will get anything other than that is stretching logic quite a bit. We will see what happens, but no team signed a new contract between the beginning of 2014 and now and the national TV contract has not changed from last year so that is a non-factor. A 3 year $24 million deal is certainly a possibility, but its far more likely that he eventually signs a 1 year deal for less than $10 million
I love that you’ve been completely wrong at every step of this process, and that each time you are you get more certain of the absurd expectation you have for the next step in the process. You continue to demonstrate a stunning lack of understanding of the business of baseball.
Your THIRD account Ryan? It must be hard to live a life so empty that you have THREE accounts to vote up your posts and try in vain to make yourself feel better. Stick to one account.
Not sure who Ryan is, but if there are others slamming you, it’s just because what you have to say is absurd, not some vast and clever conspiracy against you.
See bro? I’m not the only person who doesn’t like you. And you look pretty stupid accusing anyone who disagrees with you of being my second or third account.
Go on the Padres page and tell everyone I told you so. Lol
I agree with the tax reasoning, he can sign for less in every other state and make more money.
Good, and the whole Padres front office just breathed a sigh of relief.
Interesting tidbit. Of all the free agent starters on the market who have qualifying stats, none of them have a lower WAR than Kennedy and only a handful have a higher ERA. Ouch.
A few that spend most of the year on the DL have a lower WAR like Doug Fister and Mat Latos, but you can count them on one hand. Doesn’t bode well for his future contract. You never want to be the worst choice in a large market.
Interesting tidbit #2: The above poster has been told a half dozen times to look at fWAR, but that doesn’t support his misguided presumption, so he continues to ignore it.
Interesting tidbit #3 (for said poster): I’m still interested in the bet you proposed previously which you have 0 percent chance of winning. I propose the wager be paid for with a flight of San Diego craft beers.
I am curious whether you are at least ready to admit that your previous stance that Preller is an idiot for extending the offer looks dubious.
When was that? Why would I do that? Explain to me exactly why one is better than the other as long as you are comparing apples to apples? Why do you feel it necessary to try to insult me when you are adding nothing to the conversation nor giving any further facts.
BTW fWAR was used for the stat in that post. Ooooo doesn’t it hurt to know that you tried to insult and it backfired on you?
What has Preller done to change my opinion of him? Extending the offers as a serious risk and if Kennedy had taken it, it would have crippled the team with the $15.8 million in salary added to the current payroll load. That Kennedy was prideful enough to reject it doesn’t change the fact that it wasn’t a smart risk.
You called Preller an idiot, not me. I said it wasn’t a smart move and I stand by that.
What should have been done was trading Kennedy before the deadline last July. Not doing that was short sighted.
It only takes the tiniest bit of numeracy and literacy to know that fWAR credits Kennedy for 4.9 WAR over the three year period you keep citing. Furthermore, you keep citing the $/WAR that are tied to the fWAR calculation, while simultaneously citing bWAR stats for Kennedy.
Ultimately, here’s the thing. The people who actually have an informed opinion on the topics of contracts, QOs, draft picks and such – including each writer at this site, front office folks quoted in the media, and most national baseball journalists – think your valuation of Kennedy is completely and totally wrong. You are welcome to stand by your incorrect opinions, but that just makes you steadfastly wrong. And again, I’ll invite you to put your money where your ill-informed mouth is by accepting the wager you previously proposed on Kennedy not getting more than one year and $8MM. I’ll even give you 3:1 odds on triple the absurd valuation you put on Kennedy: I’ll pay out 3:1 on whatever you’d like to wager on Kennedy ultimately accepting less than $24M on the contract he signs this offseason.