The free-agent signing period has yet to even officially kick off — that will happen after midnight ET tonight, when the five-day, exclusive negotiation window between free agents and their current teams expires — but there are already plenty of rumblings connecting David Price to the Cubs. Earlier in the week, ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote (Insider subscription required) that “some rival evaluators consider the Cubs to be the heavy, heavy favorites” to land Price. And, earlier today, FOX’s Ken Rosenthal noted that he spoke to a pair of agents that represent some of Price’s competitors on this year’s free agent market, both of whom expect him to land with the Cubs. Rosenthal also spoke to an exec who knows Price and believes the Cubs to be the lefty’s top choice. All of this, of course, is highly preliminary in nature. It’s difficult to peg the Cubs as any kind of favorite when the team cannot yet negotiate with his agent, Bo McKinnis, in earnest and when the rest of the league hasn’t been granted a chance to persuade Price, either.
Here’s more from the NL Central…
- Though he’ll have a new title and role, longtime Milwaukee exec Gord Ash will remain with the Brewers, GM David Stearns told reporters, including MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy. Ash had been the club’s assistant general manager since 2002 but will now work in an advisory/pro scouting role with the team instead. Stearns added that the club’s search for a new farm director is ongoing, adding that the search has been narrowed considerably since it began.
- Pirates GM Neal Huntington revealed to reporters, including Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, that right-hander Casey Sadler underwent Tommy John surgery in October and will miss all of the 2016 season. Sadler made just one big league start for the Pirates in 2015 though he chipped in 10 1/3 innings in 2014 as well. The 25-year-old sinker-baller’s injury does deplete the Pirates’ rotation depth, however. The Pirates will be without Brandon Cumpton in 2016 due to shoulder surgery, Brink notes, and Nick Kingham remains on the shelf after undergoing TJ surgery himself in May. Sadler has a 3.53 ERA in 211 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level.
- Brink spoke to Huntington for a second column, and the GM tells him that the Pirates have expressed interest in re-signing left-hander J.A. Happ. “We’ve had discussions about his interest in coming back,” said Huntington. “We’ve expressed to him that we have interest in having him come back.” Happ enjoyed the best stretch of his career following a last-minute trade from Seattle to Pittsburgh before the non-waiver deadline, logging a 1.85 ERA with career-best 9.8 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 rates in 63 1/3 innings. Meanwhile, a source tells Brink that the Pirates have not had any discussions with the representative for their other late July acquisition: right-hander Joakim Soria. The former Royals/Rangers/Tigers closer figures to be one of the more attractive relief options on the open market this winter and could cost more than the Pirates care to pay.
If the Dodgers don’t lock up Greinke by the end of the exclusive negotiating window, I expect them to go hard after Price. If they’re unsure if they can re-sign Greinke, they won’t let Price walk without a fight and risk not getting either ace. Johnny Cueto isn’t quite at that level, and Leake, Samardzija and others aren’t what the Dodgers want at #2. I think it’s more likely the Dodgers go after both Grienke and Price than it is they don’t get either one. I think it’s highly unlikely they get both, but I think it’s even less likely that they miss on both.
The Dodgers are in play with every free agent. That doesn’t mean they’ll land all of them – or even one of them – but no team with that much money is going to sit by quietly and let their competitors get better without a fight. Personally, I think the Dodgers are going to keep Greinke. His opt-out never appeared to be about any level of unhappiness with LA – it just seemed to be driven by a 32-year old wanting to maximize the money he can earn later in his career.
The Dodgers won’t lock up Zack Greinke by the end of the exclusive negotiating window, which is midnight ET tonight. As one of the top two free agent starting pitchers available in the free agent market, the negotiations for him, along with David Price, are likely to drag on well into the off-season, perhaps with a resolution by the conclusion of the winter meetings in early December.
I do agree with your assessment that the Dodgers will be players for both FA aces and that they are more likely to sign one of the two than miss out on both. In my estimation when the dust settles, Greinke returns to the Dodgers and Price signs with the Cubs.
In addition to Greinke, I also believe that the Dodgers may pursue another FA starter like Jordan Zimmermann to slot behind Clayton Kershaw and Greinke in their rotation. They may also pursue a trade for a #3 starter, maybe for a more cost effective one like White Sox southpaw Jose Quintana who is locked into a long term team friendly contract, perhaps in exchange for RF Yasiel Puig who could help remedy a woeful lineup in Chicago that lacks any consistent power beyond fellow Cuban Jose Abreu. The Cubs may also be players for both Zimmermann and Quintana this off-season, along with Padre starter Tyson Ross.
Agree with all this. There’s just no way that Greinke is going to sign before talking to other interested teams. He’s come this far with his free agency, why would he give away all his leverage just hours before being able to use it?
As for Puig – I do see him being dealt for a cost-controlled young pitcher (I also see the Cubs taking the same route by dealing a position player or two for some young pitching.) The Sox would be a good fit as they have tons of pitching depth and almost nothing in the hitting department. I’ll add this caveat — if the Dodgers trade Puig for pitching, they’ll be front runners for Alex Gordon. If the Cubs trade Soler for pitching, they’re likely front runners for Jason Heyward (and didn’t land Price.)
Great stuff. I think there’s no doubt the Dodgers will sign one (Greinke or Price). They will pursue Zimmerman, Leake or one of the other SP free agents.
Who’s willing to take Crawford? I think the Dodgers need to upgrade their LF position, (possibly trading for CarGo).
As previously suggested by justinept, impending FA Alex Gordon would be a logical fit for the Dodgers to upgrade LF.
The Dodgers also have a slight advantage among all other competitors for Zack Greinke’s services. They are the only MLB club that would not be required to forfeit a draft choice by signing Greinke because of the qualifying offer that they extended to him. The Dodgers would also receive a compensatory first round sandwich pick in the event another team signs him instead.
FA David Price has no such restrictions on him since he was traded during the past season.
Would love to bring back Happ for the rotation and Soria to set up for Watson, but they’ll both earn more than the Pirates are even remotely interested in paying them.
Happ needs to be resigned if possible…. too many young arms the Bucs figured would be ready 2016 are TJ… Team has assets on offense that can be traded to put together a good pitching staff. Somewhat surprised they let Liz walk with his minimal option cost. He throws nasty, nasty stuff…
Expect some big deals before ST from the Bucs.. They need to keep up with StL & the Cubs. Without solid pitching staff…. they are 3rd in division
It’s almost impossible not to see Price re-uniting with Joe Maddon in Chicago. The Cubs have a ton of money to spend and basically are paying Schwarber, Russell & Bryant minimum wage for the next couple years, with Rizzo currently on a 6/59 deal and Soler on a 5/21 deal. They have so much money they could spend right now, it most likely won’t happen but it’s crazy to think there’s probably a way for them to sign both Price -and- Greinke, which would basically mean “Hi we are winning every year for the foreseeable future”.
You mean like Nationals dominated last year with the offseason title of “best pitching staff ever”?
Does signing 30+ year older pitchers make sense anymore?
The Tigers traded Price and Cespedes and got THREE high ceiling, league minimum guys: Fulmer, Norris and Boyd.
Chances are they will get $20MM+ of production per year from those three guys (perhaps one becomes an above average starter, one is average and one does not pan out… that is still $20MM of value). They will get 3 full years of production for a total of about $2MM in salary per year. This means they will save $54MM in money v. comparable free agents before they go to their arbitration years.
Lets go Tigers!
That’s great, but for teams who want to win, you can’t rely on a bunch of rookies just because their performance/cost ratio is better than anyone else’s. You need as many high performance guys you can get, regardless of the cost. So does it make sense to still sign these guys? Of course it does, for the right teams. Also, I would hesitate to call Boyd “high-ceiling”.
As a Tigers fan, wherever Price ends up, I wish him success. What a great guy, I enjoyed his time in the D.
I’m not going to complain if the Cubs sign David Price, but it does make me nervous to have TWO pitchers over 30-years old making $25-30 million for 6-7 years. Factor in that Arrieta is approaching 30 and just about ready to land a major payday, and you’re looking at a scenario where the Cubs could be paying anywhere from $75-90 million for 3 pitches over the age of 30. That sounds great for a couple years, but is it the best use of money for a franchise that is looking to contend for the better part of a decade – to have all that money tied up into these 3 players when they’re no longer ace-caliber pitchers? While that plan likely makes them the odds on favorite to win the World Series each of the next 3 years, I think it actually shortens the length that their window is open.
I think that fear is why you’re hearing more and more grumblings about the Cubs pursuing Jason Heyward. He won’t be cheap by any stretch, but he’d cost considerably less than Price. Additionally, Heyward would allow the Cubs to further trade from their surplus of position players. Soler and Baez have tremendous trade value (Soler more so), and you could split the duo up in separate trades for cost-effective pitching like Julio Teheran, Tyson Ross, Jose Quintana, Danny Salazar, etc or you could package the duo together and make a serious run at Sonny Gray. Personally, I think that is the better plan.
I love the idea of signing a veteran impact position player (as long as it’s not Upton) and trading a young guy or two for a young controllable upside arm. Not sure they want to give what it would take to get Gray though. I also I see the need for another pitcher too, but not necessarily the top, most expensive arms.
How about an off season that includes adding Alex Gordon and Cueto as FA’s, and trading something like Vogalbach and Solar for one of the arms you mentioned (probably AL if Vogalbach is included).
It’s pretty rare when a player like Gray is traded so who knows what it would take to pry him from the A’s? I think an offer of Soler/Baez would be strong, though – certainly stronger than the package the A’s received for Donaldson a year ago. But then, if Beane rejected the deal, I woudn’t be shocked either. There isn’t much precedence for this type of deal… but if any two decision makers are going to set the precedence, it’d probably be Beane and Epstein.
As for Gordon – I love him as a player. But his age worries me. I think you’d be ok with losing the long-term potential of Soler IF you had Heyward in the fold. But to give away that potential when you have a 32-year old in the mix is a bit of a different story for me.
And I dont think Vogelbach has much value.
I like your thought process, and I would LOVE to get Gray from Oakland, but it would be a massive price to pay (one that Theo is unlikely to pay).
IF we were able to sign Jason Heyward, then the offer could be centered around Soler, Baez, Jeimer Candelario, Dan Vogelbach, and some others (likely Gleyber Torres or Pierce Johnson).
Beane would ask for the world, and rightfully so. It would be great if Theo can make it work.
Gordons age is the reason I prefer him over Heyward assuming that relates to a shorter deal. With the next wave of prospects being a couple years away I don’t think you need to pay somebody $20 or $25 million for eight years. Hopefully an OF or two from the Happ/McKinney/Almora/Jimenez group pans out.