ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick conducted his annual Hot Stove survey, polling a number of front-office executives and scouts about some of the top names available both in free agency and on the trade market. Crasnick asked respondents to weigh in on David Price vs. Zack Greinke; Jason Heyward vs. Justin Upton; Chris Davis vs. Yoenis Cespedes; which of Colby Rasmus or Daniel Murphy would be able to sustain some of his postseason success; which of Jeff Samardzija or Ian Desmond is a better rebound candidate; which of Javier Baez or Starlin Castro is more likely to be traded; and which of Alex Gordon, Ben Zobrist or Johnny Cueto is likeliest to return to the Royals. Crasnick has full voting and plenty of quotes from execs/scouts for those who wish to read the piece in its entirety, but here are some particularly interesting highlights…
- More respondents felt comfortable giving a nine-figure deal to Greinke than to Price, though the expectation is still that Price’s deal will top Greinke’s due to age. Crasnick quotes a pair of scouts that rave about Greinke’s delivery and how he can age well due to his intelligence and lack of reliance on pure velocity. One NL scout likened Greinke to Greg Maddux.
- Heyward won the voting over Upton when asked which would perform better over the life of his next contract, though there was a reasonably even split, and many scouts quoted by Crasnick are concerned with Heyward’s reliance on defensive value and what one described to be a high-maintenance swing.
- Murphy won the voting over Rasmus in their question, and one American League special assistant offered an interesting take to Crasnick: “If I was a team and I had a market for Murphy, I’d want him playing third base. I don’t like him at second. The ball finds him, like it did in the World Series. He got exposed there.” Murphy does have experience at third base, and we’ve mentioned him as a possible option for teams in need of help at the hot corner here at MLBTR, as the free-agent market presents little beyond Murphy and David Freese.
- More respondents felt that Castro is likelier to be traded than Baez, even though as one scout put it, Baez would “fetch more of a haul.” An AL GM offered an interesting take on Castro’s contract, however, telling Crasnick: “Castro showed enough at two positions this year that his contract will seem like a fair deal once the free-agent class this year gets paid.” Castro, who is owed about $38MM over the next four seasons, certainly isn’t cheap and isn’t without his risks. He was a replacement-level player in 2013 and played that way for much of the 2015 season before his bat came to life late in the season following a switch to second base. Of course, Castro also sported an unsustainable .388 BABIP in September and October, which somewhat inflated his production.
- Cespedes and Samardzija narrowly won the voting on their respective question, while Gordon was far and away the most popular answer in the Royals realm.
Greinke and Gregg Maddux are great points of comparison, and not only for the pitching stats they both put up and the way they handle the strike zone. Like Maddux, Grienke also knows how to help himself with his glove and bat.
everyone says the cubs are a match made in heaven for each other, I think the cubs should spend the money on Zimmermann and Lackey. they get two great pitchers for the price of one
I just don’t get it. Jason Heyward has a career 118 wRC+. That’s a near 20% above league average hitter. Meanwhile Upton has a career 121 wRC+, just 3% better and let’s be honest that’s basically equal.
Heyward hit as well as Prince Fielder, Ben Zobrist, Jose Altuve, Nolan Arenado, and others this year.
Heyward isn’t the best hitter in the league but he’s decidedly above average hitter with superb defense.
Suggestion to MTR: Post the fact that Tommy Hanson from the Braves past away: scource cnn and Braves
Oh nvm
I think Mussina is a more favorable comp to Greinke any time you bring up Maddux you are just looking for a reaction. If any one still pitched like Maddux they would still be getting complete games he was the most efficient pitcher ever Greinke is not.. Maddux would be unaffected by today’s limits because he would complete games before 100 pitches.
I suspect he was talking more about the style of pitching, given the reference to velocity and durability. In any case Maddux pitched an average of 6.77 innings per games started and Grienke so far is at 6.48. Neither has thrown a lot of innings in relief.but Grienke more than Maddux, so if you removed the relief innings the numbers would probably be a lot closer. Grienke has made an average of 15.85 pitches per inning and for his career Maddux is 12.7 PPI. And yes, Maddux’s completion rate is off the charts but that was a different era.
That is nice Maddux has more than double shutouts alone than Greinke has complete games, Greinke has 2 complete games the past 5 years.
I don’t think anyone is trying to argue that Greinke is a better or more efficient pitcher than Maddux. Simply that with his delivery and reliance on command and pitching intelligence over velocity and raw ‘stuff’ that Greinke can sustain his success to a similar age that Maddux was able to, that’s all.
How would removing relief appearances increase one’s innings per start?
I’m really surprised that those surveyed think Alex Gordon is the most likely among Zobrist, Cueto, and Gordon to return to the Kansas City Royals next year. Gordon would need to take a significant discount to return to Kansas City and I simply do not see that happening. He is in line for a 5 year contract worth around $100 million and I do not think the Royals will approach that. Early indications are that they would love to have him back, but only for three years, maybe four years.
With that said, I find it similarly unlikely that Cueto will be back. He will command a larger contract than Gordon. If the Royals are unable to give Gordon a nine-figure deal, they certainly will not offer that type of contract to Cueto.
Of the three, I think Zobrist has the best chance to return because he will not require a deal longer than four years and could play multiple positions. Of course, beside the fact that he is still a very good player, these qualities will make him attractive to every team, and therefore bidding could be intense. So while he may be the most likely to return to the Royals, I ultimately do not think he will either.