Athletics infielders Brett Lawrie and Danny Valencia are generating trade interest, and one of the two is likely to be moved in the wake of Oakland’s re-acquisition of Jed Lowrie, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Sources tell Slusser that American League clubs are already showing interest in the duo, and she writes that Lawrie is “considered the better bet to be traded.”
Considering how long he’s been in the league, it’s somewhat surprising that Lawrie is still just 25 years of age (26 in January). One of the main pieces picked up in last winter’s Josh Donaldson blockbuster, Lawrie is controllable for another two seasons via arbitration. While his .299 on-base percentage in 2015 was certainly a disappointment, Lawrie tallied career highs in key arbitration statistics such as plate appearances (602), home runs (16) and RBIs (60), leading to a projected salary of $3.9MM from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz (a raise of nearly $2MM from this past season’s $1.925MM salary).
His sub-par offensive output in 2015 (from a rate standpoint) notwithstanding, there’s plenty to like about Lawrie. To this point in his career, he’s produced a roughly league-average batting line (after adjusting for park factors) and can handle either second base or third base from a defensive standpoint. The former first-round pick/top 100 prospect is also still young enough to be considered somewhat of an upside play. The White Sox, Indians, Astros, Padres, Braves and his original organization, the Brewers, could all use some help at second and/or third.
The 31-year-old Valencia is considerably older than Lawrie but has experience at a wider variety of positions and enjoyed a much stronger offensive campaign in 2015. Valencia, who didn’t even debut as a rookie until he was the same age Lawrie was this past season, had his best season since making his big league debut back in 2010. In 378 plate appearances between Toronto and Oakland, he batted .290/.345/.519 with a career-best 18 home runs.
While most of his damage has typically come against left-handed pitching, Valencia crushed righties this season as well (.285/.325/.556) and did so without the aid of an outlandish BABIP mark as some might have initially assumed. Most of Valencia’s career has been spent at third base, but he has experience at first base and second base as well, and the Blue Jays played him for 220 innings in left field this season, too. He’s projected to earn $3.4MM in 2016.
Per Slusser’s report, whichever player is retained will likely handle third base in 2016, with the newly acquired Lowrie manning second base and Marcus Semien remaining at shortstop. While Semien led the Majors in errors, the team feels he made significant strides, defensively, toward the end of the season. “He’s a shortstop,” GM David Forst told Slusser in regard to Semien.
Maybe the Yankees could use him at 2nd? Pineda for Lawrie.
Pineda has much more upside than Lawrie. Lawrie IMO is an 8 hole hitter while Pineda is a solid 2-3 starter. If the Yankees want Lawrie, then it should cost them a high upside, low floor guy in the low minors or a low ceiling high floor guy in AAA. Valencia would probably cost them Dietrich Enns and another piece.
Lawrie is much better than an 8 hole hitter trust me. He hasnt hit his potential yet.
Well until Lawrie does hit his potential I agree he should be hitting down in the order.
Pineda might have more upside but he’s quite a few years into what could have been a more successful career had he not been injured. For my money Pineda needs to show he can stay off the DL for a full season before I declare he’s a 2nd or 3rd starter. I would not use the word “solid” in describing Pineda at this time. Let’s not forget he’s spent more time on the DL over the last five years than he’s been active at all levels combined.
Yeah, a solid 2-3 starter on a day he uses pine tar.
A’s would jump all over that I would think.
I wouldn’t give up Pineda for Lawrie… When Pineda is on, he is a very good #2 pitcher
I agree. I think that’s overpaying quite a bit.
Pineda is a #3 pitcher. Lawrie is the equivalent of Gardner, but not owed as much money. People have been clear on here that Gardner is worth a #3 pitcher.
You should absolutely take people on here who don’t work for the site’s opinions with a grain of salt though. Even the idea of what a “#3 pitcher” is will set off huge arguments. I’d say Gardner is definitely worth a guy who will throw 180-210 innings of sub-4.00 FIP ball.
In what universe is Lawrie = Gardner? Lawrie was less than 1 WAR this year and Gardner was 2.6. Past 3 years Gardner leads 9.4 to 3.9. You literally could not made a worse comparison if you tried.
Mike Trout to Mike Martinez.
Hank Aaron and Mario Mendoza are the SAME PLAYER
Do you know how ages and positional values work though?
He’s not equal to him, but Lawrie has some value in that he’s still young whereas Gardner is on the wrong side of 30 and has a skill set that doesn’t necessarily age well. You’re not wrong and the numbers definetly don’t say Lawrie will amount to much but his age and positional versatility does help him.
Trade Value also does not = historical production
If by historical production you mean numbers in the past years, then I would disagree. Trade value isn’t all how old you are, how many positions can you play and what did you do the past season (which is historical production btw). If a guy has a bad track record and one good year he’s not exactly bringing in top notch players (see Cameron Maybin). A guy with a more consistent historical track record will have high value depending on their output level. If you didn’t mean past track record then can you explain what you mean by historical production?
Trade value = future value based off past numbers and salary/contract length. A guy who’s making $2M a year can be worth more as a 2 fWAR player than a guy who makes $20M a year to be a 3 fWAR player.
this is incorrect, it isn’t based off past numbers, it is based off projected future performance. unless this is 50 year agos then you are right. but paying for the past is for a fool.
The last 4 years, Lawrie has played 494 games, Gardner 505. In that time Lawrie has been worth 14 rWAR and Gardner has been worth 16 rWAR. One is making $13M the other $3.4M. That 2 rWAR over 4 years or .5 rWAR/year is worth 10M/year?? Lawrie is deal, Gardner is not.
That is the universe.
it’s not immediately obvious to me that lawrie is actually better than the ackley/refsnyder platoon
lol, yes he is.
it’s interesting to me how lawrie gets to keep on having upside basically forever while ackley is clearly a bum. both guys got changes of scenery last year… one of them hit awesome after his, the other one kept on doing the same old thing… makes u think
ackley is 2 years older. lawrie has had a better big league season in just 50 games than any season in ackleys career. ackley doesnt have power potential and lawrie does, and power is a much hotter commodity.
You don’t trade a quality young pitcher for a mediocrity like Lawrie.
Or Gardner.
Brewers could use Lawrie, but a reunion seems very unlikely.
The Brewers should have taken a shot on Mike Olt while he was on waivers a few months back. They’re not competing in 2016, so might as well give him a shot.
Couldn’t agree more. Totally baffled on why they passed. They seem to prefer utility types at third.
Everybody should have fought for Mike Olt – Cubs lose there one day Cubs be crying like Josh Donaldson got away -nice job White Sox
Beerfist will not be returning to the Brewers.
They should trade Valencia. He seems likely to regress, while Lawrie could still turn into something. Donaldson was old when he got good. Valencia can probably get a good return (top 10-15 org prospect and a lotto) due to versatility, contact skills, power and affordability. Oakland has leverage here as well because they are both controlled.
I agree, I think Valencia this offseason, Lawrie next year after we see what he does in 2016.
2015 was also Lawrie’s first fully healthy season where he wasn’t on the DL for a long time, which also co-incides with his poor rate finish to the season (.643 OPS in Sept). Now he’s got that experience of actually playing a full season under his belt, he will hopefully apply that to 2016.
I would think Oakland would rather sell high on Valencia than low on Lawrie. Lawrie hasn’t even entered his ages 26-32 prime yet, one would think Oakland’s brass would like to see at least one season of that before moving him. Even with less years on his deal, a breakout 2016 season could see him get back even more in a trade.
I agree. In essence, they would be turning $20,000 into prospects.
Still don’t know how Valencia was a mid season DFA this year, he was a very helpful piece for the Jays while he was here.
You never ever see regular or even semi-regular players with OPS’s over .800 DFA’d, I really have no idea how that came to be.
I think it was a numbers crunch since the positions he played had more established guys. Knowing that they Jays had to get rid of him probably made teams avoid trading for him and just waiting/hoping to waiver claim him or sign him as a free agent.
That seems like horrible GMing, not even getting a low level prospect for him in a trade. They got nothing in return for a guy who not only had played multiple positions, but had a .838 OPS at the time he was let go. That pretty much never happens.
I might be wrong but didn’t his DFA coincide with the trade for Revere? If so I could see there being a complication there with needing to clear a 25-man spot and an out-of-options Valencia. Agreed, terrible GMing to not try to find a taker for Valencia anyway but maybe the Revere trade was a take this deal now or lose the opportunity to get him type of deal.
we don’t really know that they didn’t *try* to find a taker for valencia. we just know that they didn’t succeed
It was either we got rid of colabello or valencia due to option issues, so we chose to keep clutchabello.
Cola is a great player but I thought the Jays should have kept Valencia because Cola has options and could have been sent to Buffalo( or wherever) so they could have kept both.
The Jays were so stacked with good bats they chose defense and Valencia was odd man out. The Jays fans screamed, too.
defense? collabello is a terrible defender so that wasn’t the reasoning. collabello just had more control left after the year and isnt arb eligable yet.
ben revere. basically him or collabello was going to be dfa’d. they held collabello.
halos should get lawrie
That was my initial thought. Maybe something like Tropeano would make sense.
If I were Oakland I’d demand Heaney for Lawrie and Tropeano + a prospect for Valencia.
But honestly the Angels farm is completely gassed at this point and they don’t have enough firepower to get anyone notable, let alone an everyday position player.
they would have to give up gott imo but maybe jett bandy + bedrosion could get it done
Oakland could get a lot better players from any of the other 29 teams than that. No reason to take such a lowball offer from a gassed out farm.
the angels traded their best two prospects for simmons which i am still upset they gave up newcomb. But maybe they can make up a cheaper package for plouffe.
Hope the braves go after Lawrie. Big hole at 3B.
Did they move Olivera to LF or something?
That seems to be the plan. The braves could also use help at 2b
the braves need help period XD
Why? If talking about Lawrie at 3B, Adonis Garcia would be a better option. In a small sample size he put up comparable numbers and more power (10 HR in under 200 AB). Lawrie would be the better defender, but not by much. Lawrie would be an upgrade at 2B, but Beane usually wins most trades (Donaldson trade notwithstanding).
presumably the argument against adonis keys on that “small sample” thing you mentioned. i’m not necessarily jumping on that train myself, i think adonis is interesting and lawrie is overrated. but it’s hard to have any idea what adonis is really going to do going forward, so, that’s a concern. it’s not like the braves care what happens next year though
Sure, but in that small sample he’s looked better than Lawrie – who was a can’t-miss prospect that never lived up to bloated expectations. I can’t imagine OAK giving him away, why would ATL give away what looks to be a decent prospect for Lawrie when we won’t compete in 2016? There will be cheaper bridges to Riley, and he’s already on the team — Adonis Garcia. If nothing else, sign David Freese to a 2-year deal that should bridge to Riley while using Adonis to spell at 3B, 1B, OF.
i was agreeing with you man
Adonis is a great backup option, but doesn’t have lawries athleticism. Bretts a very well rounded player even while underperforming. Him and Peterson. Could also make a nice competition for playing time, I’d love the move.
look at lawries first season too. its small sample size, lawrie is younger and a better defender. garcia just doesnt have any room to grow.
I’m worried Adonis is a flash in the pan. Shows promise but won’t live up to it. He’s older so I can’t imagine he’s the next Bautista and it all of a sudden clicked for him. Besides he’s a below avg defender at 3b. Same is said for Olivera. Braves need help at 3rd. Unless we think Ruiz just had a bad year in the minors and will be ready in 2016 then a moves got to be made to bridgethe gap to Austin Riley.
I would like to see the Reds get Lawrie as a replacement for Todd Frazier who will likely be dealt this winter. The Reds have the young pitching to get that deal done.
What would the Reds want from Oakland for Frazier & Chapman? Lawrie and…?
Every prospect in their system from Ravelo to Nottingham
What kind of alphabet goes from R to N?
Why would Oakland want Frazier and Chapman? Frazier would just be traded in a year but Chapman walks at the end of the year and there’s no chance the A’s resign him so why give up a huge prospect haul just to try and trade him for less than you gave up for him
Oakland could in theory contend with Frazier at 3B and Chapman as closer. And if they aren’t contending, just get back some prospects lost in the deal at the trade deadline by flipping them.
“Why give up a huge prospect haul just to try and trade him for less than you gave up for him” – see Holliday, Matt.
I doubt the reds trade Frazier. He is a home town guy. That puts his cost even higher than his value.
He’s too old for their current rebuild and only has 1 year left on his deal.
the reds want a haul back for him, not sure who would want him
Oakland would probably take him for Lawrie, straight up or with a lower level prospect.
First off, Matt Holliday was an MVP caliber player at the time of the trade whereas Chapman and Frazier have established themselves as All-Stars and very good players but not necessarily MVPs. Also, look at the trades. Oakland traded Huston Street, Greg Smith and Carlos Gonzalez to the Rockies to get him. Then traded him to the Cardinals for Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortensen and Shane Peterson. Neither of those three played for the A’s for more than two years and none of them are even on the team. Outside of Greg Smith, the Rockies haul is/was obviously better than the haul the A’s got back. Brett Wallace was a good prospect at the time but the fact that he never panned out should be enough to ward Beane from making a similar mistake twice.
My point was that Holliday had 1 year left on his deal and they gave away a major package for him, and, in answering your question “why trade for guys who are going to walk after the year”, which I answered…
Bottom line: Frazier and Chapman turn the A’s from also-rans to legit contenders. The bullpen alone would be unhittable for at least 3 innings. The A’s were nowhere near as bad as their record was last year, they were 19-35 in 1-run games, that’s pretty impossible to repeat. If the A’s are looking to contend, as Beane always is, then they are certainly a match with Cincy for those two. No idea if Cincy will continue to overvalue Chapman but if they drop him down to where Matt Olson gets him, the A’s should make that trade.
Maybe I just like to look at things from a long-term view but my point was that Oakland did not get similar value back in the Holliday deal. Lawrie and Frazier would make a decent swap if you throw a guy in here and there, but considering that the Reds want the moon for Chapman, Oakland would have to give up more than they would get back in a deal.
The Oakland system is blessed with a lot of infield prospects. The Reds essentially have none that are close, so there could be a match on a deal involving Lawrie or even one of their left-side infield guys.
Only way I see this trade proposal happening is if a 3’rd team is involved. Sure a pick received garners Beane’s interest but I don’t think Chapman’s $$$ is what they want to pay. Not an A’s type of acquisition.
why would the reds trade frazier as part of a rebuild and then turn around and trade young pitching to replace frazier with lawrie, who if i’m not mistaken is under team control for the exact same amount of time frazier is (two more years)
they arent trading for lawrie. he only has 2 years of control. the guys they are targetting will have 5 years+ of control remaining.
Beane doing the bait and switch. When all the weak offers for Lawrie come in he will say you can get Valencia for that deal. Somebody will budge.
It would be really hilarious if that was true. Straight out of the “Moneyball 2” script.
i hope Oakland trades Valencia. It would be foolish to go back on the Donaldson deal so soon.
Valencia > Gott.
I don’t understand the strong love for Gott. The Angels were really close to dealing him straight up for Ben Revere last summer.
He’s a fire baller with control. Good bullpen piece.
no way the angels would trade gott for Valencia
If those are the offers for Lawrie, then he’s definitely not getting moved. I can see Oakland looking for a MLB-ready LF in return for Lawrie, perhaps a higher end 1B or C prospect too. Beane has stated emphatically that he wants an entirely new bullpen (other than Doolittle) so big name relievers work as well.
As stated below: I wonder if Beane will go all-in and try and get Frazier and Chapman in a deal with Lawrie and/or Valencia going back to Cincy, in addition to 3-5 prospects/mlb-level pitchers. But this is Oakland, who knows what Beane will do, no one saw the Lowrie trade coming.
You must rank Lawrie and Valencia very low like arbitration drops. Nova is a terrible pitcher who even the Yanks are talking about dropping. Gott has a very long swing that will keep him out of the majors. Who is Thurman?
Thurman was a first rounder by Houston a few years back and was traded to Atlanta in the Gattis trade and Gott is a reliever.
I thought you were talking about the angels catcher. Gott is only good against right handed hitters they are a dime a dozen. Thurman is ranked way down there on the prospect list for the braves. Not even in the top ten. Beane is not dumping Lawrie or Valencia he should be expecting much more for a regular 3b.
what would it take for the angels to get one of these two?
Wow, I thought Lawrie was much older than 25 (going to be 26). He feels like he’s been around forever, but maybe that’s because he’s been shipped off and moved around so much. At first I was thinking there was no way the Yankees would have interest in him, but I wouldn’t mind them taking a chance with him at 2B. I’m still not convinced the Yankees believe in Refsnyder, but I wonder how Lawrie would mesh in the Yankee clubhouse. I’m rambling, but still interesting.
Really hope the Mets are checking in. Questions of Wright’s health and Duda’s consistency, along with spelling Conforto against those real tough lefties, Valencia can really help them.
devon travis for Brett Lawrie
Confused as to why the Padres are linked to Lawrie. They already have two 2B on the roster, and I’m all for Spangenberg starting over Gyorko. At 3B we have a switch hitting Solarte who had a very good 2015 campaign.
The focus for AJ should be on plugging in a stop gap at SS, like Asdrubal Cabrera (2/$20), while we wait for Guerra, and then targeting the mid-tier of the SP Market to bolster the already depleted rotation.
I see Lawrie in a Sox uniform.
yeah, white sox would make sense.
looking around the league for places where lawrie would actually be at least somewhat of a real upgrade at 2B or 3B based on his actual production to date, as opposed to name value / real or perceived upside:
white sox 2B/3B (olt, saladino, micah johnson, carlos sanchez) – brewers 2B/3B (gennett, villar, elian herrera, hernan perez) – angels 3B (cowart, kubitza) – indians 3B (urshela, jose ramirez) – royals 2B (infante) – dbacks 2B (owings, but they have drury) – mets 2B (vacant, dilson herrera?)
that’s about it. there’s a lot of other arguable cases but in order for most other teams to trade for him as an upgrade you’d have to believe he’s going to get better
mets are rolling with herrera if they are smart. solid defender who has hit at every level and still isn’t 22. he will have a better year than murphy next year if given the opportunity.
oh, and there’s the braves, with jace at 2B or the adonis-at-3B argument that you can see upthread. but if the braves “rebuild” is to trade 5 years of andrelton for young pitching and then turn around and trade young pitching for 2 years of brett lawrie, they’re crazy people
he makes the most sense for the indians, angels, royals and mets, because they’re trying to contend and have mostly complete teams outside of those holes.
white sox, eh, they have more problems, but they could certainly use him. brewers and braves are mid-rebuild. d-backs seem more likely to trade an infielder than bring another one in; owings and ahmed are bad at hitting but they have a lot of bodies, therefore options.
with the royals, the question is “do they re-sign zobrist”; angels it’s “what do they have left to trade for him”; mets it’s “is dilson or flores just as good”. ultimately the indians and white sox seem like the best fits.
Avi Garcia would be a good match for lawrie
lol no, garcia sucks, lawrie is at least average.
Personally I’d keep Lawrie and shop Valencia.
I wonder if Beane is in on the rapidly falling (in value) Puig? Lawrie-Puig straight up with the A’s taking on all the money? Puig could play LF in 2016 and be on hand for RF if Reddick leaves.
For me it would be hard to trade even one of them, even after the aquisition of Jed Lowrie. We need depth, injuries are a common thing. I don’t think Danny Valencia would get a big return, he’s still an unproven player and the Jays DFA’d him in July, even though he was playing well. And I have a feeling Brett Lawrie is going to get better next year, so I would hate to sell low on him. Just keep them both and play manage the playing time with all of them.
The Orioles could use Lawrie. I wonder what they could offer to Oakland.
could they? the infield is kind of the only thing the orioles DO have, isn’t it? that and adam jones. they need a LF, RF, 1B, DH, some pitching… they need to spend their resources in all of those places first and they probably don’t even have enough to fill all those holes. sure, you could DH lawrie or probably play him in LF or 1B, but a lot of his value is tied to his ability to play on the dirt.
Keep Lawrie. Move Valencia. Think he a mid year “flash in the pan”. Can’t give up on a 26 year old who has some fire. Name Lawrie captain and let him lead.
You don’t sell off a guy like Lawrie for the sake of a guy like Valencia.
If we trade lawrie imma be pissed
Julio Teheran for Brett Lawrie and Jacob Nottingham? What do you guys think?
The white sox should be all over lawrie
Pujols likes Lawrie. I remember Lawrie talking about Albert complimenting him a while back on his game. I’d love to see Lawrie play with Trout and Pujols. Get some fire going in the Angels clubhouse. Trout is too soft spoken.