The Red Sox’s options are somewhat limited as they look to acquire a top starting pitcher this winter, Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald writes. Boston doesn’t have the assets to swing a deal for White Sox ace Chris Sale, Sonny Gray of the A’s, or any of the Mets’ elite arms. The farm system won’t yield them a star pitcher right now, either. That, of course, leaves only free agency and Boston has never gotten ace on the open market before.
Still, it’s not as though the Red Sox haven’t spent big on pitching in the past. In 2010, the Red Sox signed John Lackey to a five-year, $82.5MM deal, though Silverman notes that he was more though of as a No. 2 pitcher to go alongside Jon Lester. In 2007, the Red Sox paid $103MM to land Daisuke Matsuzaka on a six-year deal, but that was via the NPB posting system and not traditional free agency.
Here’s more out of the AL East:
- The Orioles continue to have interest in a reunion with outfielder L.J. Hoes, who was designated for assignment on Friday by the Astros, as Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes. The O’s traded Hoes to Houston in July 2013 as a part of a package to land pitcher Bud Norris and while Hoes hasn’t really thrived since then, Baltimore apparently believes that a homecoming could chance that. Hoes appeared in only eight games for the Astros in 2015, but he slashed .295/.383/.400 for their Triple-A affiliate. All told, the 25-year-old owns a .237/.289/.328 batting line over 337 MLB plate appearances. Hoes has, however, shown some speed and on-base ability at the Triple-A level.
- The Orioles are said to be discussing outfielder Jay Bruce with the Reds, although it doesn’t sound like anything is imminent at this time. Kubatko writes that this isn’t the first time the two sides have discussed a Bruce deal and, in the past, the O’s have had concerns about Bruce’s left knee.
- The Rays jettisoned catcher J.P. Arencibia, outfielder Daniel Nava, and righties Brandon Gomes and Kirby Yates from the 40-man roster last week in an effort to protect their top young arms in the Rule 5 draft. It’s a move that Rays president Matt Silverman feels will expand his options as he talks trade with clubs this winter. “We’re having conversations out of a position of strength given the pitching depth that we have and look forward to seeing how the rest of the offseason unfolds,” Silverman said, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
Correction: The Red Sox HAD the prospects but then they traded some for a closer and refuse to trade Betts or Boegarts.
they can trade for anyone and still keep both Betts and Xander.
That’s not true. Boston has no prospects that could bring in Gray, Sale, Trout, Harper, Donaldson, Kershaw without adding Betts or Bogaerts to the deal. They have a good farm, but theres a level of players that cannot simply be had by prospects alone, so saying “anyone” is wrong.
Grey and Sale are not in the same place as the other ones you said. They could pull off a trade but it would be unwise. They still have Devers, Beninteni, Moncada, Espnoiza, Owens, Johnson, Kopach. Betts and Bogaerts have years of control and are already proven MLB players with high WAR. There is no realistic trade that involves them.
Agreed. Espinoza and Kopech are the 2 starting flamethrowers they are probably hoping to not have to trade and my guess.. Is Devers and Benintendi over Moncada ATM.
They still have people to trade and could meet the price for just about anyone. Fans (some) refuse to realise just how deep the Sox system was before the Kimbrell trade. BA didn’t rank that system #1 for nothing.
Margot and Guerra, while in some systems may have been #’s 1-2 were not in Boston. Margot was behind Moncada for sure and this coming season, Espinoza and Devers both would have been by him in BA rankings though he already had been passed in the minds of us Sox fans who watch MiLB tv games.
What amazes me is that Rafael Devers, Manuel Margot and Javier Guerra zoomed up the prospects lists this year even though not one posted an on-base percentage above .330 in the lower minors this season. I understand that each was young for his level, but 90 percent of all Top 100 prospects are young for their level. I would think that with sub-.330 OBP each player at best would only maintain his preseason ranking.
A new regime often brings in new evaluations and I suspect Boston’s Dave Dombrowski decided to sell-high on Margot and Guerra.
More than just young for level. How many 20YO kids are playing at the AA level? That’s what Margot was doing and same goes for Devers. He was 18YO and playing full season A ball and for much of the season? Not only one of the youngest kids in that league (Sally), but crushing the ball. He tired towards the end and his numbers dropped some, but were still more than respectable.
Guerra was glove 1st and still is maybe why he jumped, always has the glove if the power that showed up this season doesn’t last, though watched him live during the GCL championship series vs the Yanks and it looked legit to me. Crushed 2 HR that playoff series. 1 to RC, other to dead right September of 2013.
Manuel Margot was one of two 20-year-old hitters in the Double A Eastern League:
baseball-reference.com/register/leader.cgi?type=ba…
In other Double A leagues, the Southern League had one 19-year-old hitter and two 20-year-old hitters while the Texas League has one 19-year-old hitter and one 20-year-old hitter.
The Double A leagues had a combined six pitchers age 20 or younger this season.
One could argue that Rafael Devers was outperformed in the Single A South Atlantic League this season by Jomar Reyes and Ozhaino Albies, who are both younger than Devers.
I just don’t agree. If you offer a mixture of quality and quantity of prospects, you can acquire just about anyone.
Realistically, if the Dodgers offered Pederson, Urias, Seager, Holmes and DeLeon for Chris Sale, I’m sure we’d see a deal get done.
If the Red Sox truely wanted Sonny Gray without parting with Betts or Bogaerts, they could get something done.
The Sox still have Bogaerts, Owens, ERod, Moncada, Devers, Brian Johnson and Benintendi that they could use.
Offer 3 of them and you could have just about any player in baseball other than Trout, Harper and Kershaw.
Pederson and arguably Seager aren’t prospects, they’re big leaguers now. I put them in the same category as Betts and Bogaerts, who I said would have to be in a deal to get one to actually happen, so you appear to have misunderstood my point, or have a different view of what a prospect is. To me, a prospect has not been in the big leagues yet, which you could argue semantics on that to still call guys who have been up for about a month prospects, but you’re calling guys who have played full seasons prospects, which is inherently wrong.
You see they’re not in the same category as Betts and Bogaerts. They are in the same category Betts was in last season and Bogaerts was in last season. Young players with some ML experience who have yet to break out in the majors. Both Betts and Bogaerts played an entire season at a very good to elite level last year. The same cannot be said for Pederson and Seager.
Can anyone trade for Harper,Trout,Kershaw?
I think it’s obvious that they meant the Sox could trade for any realistic trade target — which Trout, Harper, Donaldson, and Kershaw are not — without giving up Betts or Bogaerts. The wealth of prospects they’d have to give up for Sale or Gray, though, is prohibitive now, after they overpaid for Kimbrel.
This is a joke right? Swihart? Rodriguez? Devers? Moncada? Owens? Benintendi? Espinoza? The Redsox boast a top 5 farm still
Swihart, Rodriguez, and Owens are part of the ML club and not moving anywhere. Devers, Moncada, and Espinoza are all several years away and far from sure things. The Red Sox system is barren in the upper minors right now and no logical person can say they have a top 5 system at this moment.
Doubt ERod goes anywhere, but there’s no real reason they couldn’t move Swihart and Owens. And I think they still are top five. It doesn’t really matter how many years away the prospects are. I doubt moving Margot and Guerra really impacted their ranking more than a few spots.
i agree with the exception of swihart. He made great strides last year defensively and offensively and with vazquez’ coming off missing the season to tommy john surgery and his value coming defensively (particularly his ability to throw guys out). i doubt Vazquez is ready to start in the majors or provide as a backup for Hanigan. So at this time swihart is not expendable. The other backup option would be leon who i do like defensively but like him as a depth piece and would surly rather have Swihart start and Hanigan back him up with Vazquez and Leon as depth and (rehab for vazquez) in AAA
Moncada could headline a deal for Gray or Sale. The system still has about 5 top 50 prospects and 9 top 150.
Kershaw, Harper, Trout, Donaldson, etc. are MVP candidates every year and are off the every single trading table ever
You don’t think a package of Swihart, Moncada, and Devers gets you any player in Baseball?
Deluded
They could have had Cole Hamels for Blake Swihart and pocket change…
Come on we don’t know what other pieces were asked for. Also that would leave Boston with no sure catcher.
Considering what Philadelphia ultimately accepted, it couldn’t have been much more than Swihart.
Yea but they need players so they probably wanted at least one or two other decent ones. I like the deal they ended getting.
I liked it too, but they still paid a ton of money, traded away a good reliever and gave up that ace for 3 A- prospects, a B prospect and a throw in.
If Boston took all of Hamels contract, it wouldn’t have cost much more than Swihart + 2 B level prospects
The phillies have money and wouldn’t consider Boston taking on all of Hamels contract to be that valuable…they wanted to restock the farm, the plan was always to absorb more money in exchange for better prospects. Swihart + 2 B levels wouldn’t have gotten it done.
It was a lot more. Despite what Amaro wants to say the price came down as the year went on and the Sox were no longer interested, because they were out of it.
Really? They got a lot more in value than Swihart.
they also took on matt harrison though
Half of Harrison’s contract is covered by insurance if he doesn’t pitch.
When Harrison is healthy he is a good starter still and they have insurance for if he gets hurt. So i don’t see it being a bad thing they got him
Except it’s been repeatedly reported that Hamels would have invoked his no-trade clause to any AL team except New York and Texas, so.
He would have done it to force them to take on option year. The trade would’ve needed more money going to Boston
They could have had Cole and the money the Phillies covered for less than what they gave up for • A Proven Closer.
Luckily they are not in the business of trading young, cost controlled, good defensive catchers that can hit for an aging pitcher with a “meh” contract who has struggled vs the AL.
Margot was 3rd or 4th best prospect. Betts and Bogarts are already very good young players. No reason to trade them.
Moncada, Benintenti, Owens, Johnson and other higher ranked pitchers in the lower minors. The Sox could afford the Kimbrel price because the farm is still top 5.
the sox still have plenty of prospects. silverman’s actual story, if you click through and read it, doesn’t even say that they “don’t have the assets” to trade for gray or sale. he just says it “isn’t an option”; he doesn’t explain why not. MLBTR is freelancing a little bit by interpreting it as saying the sox “don’t have the assets”; i think it’s more likely because either the price is too high or those two guys simply aren’t available.
Exactly. Poor story translation here of exactly what Silverman actually wrote. Usually it’s the other way around with the wretched NE media, but not this time.
They still easily have a top 5 system without the two guys they sent to SD. The better of the two was only #5 in their system.
Bogaerts is the best hitting SS in the majors he just needs to get stornger and Betts is a young, leadoff, good defensive CF
If the Red Sox don’t have the assets to trade for an ace, does anyone?
The dodgers are the only obvious team. Rays have a huge collection of pitchers that would be appealing to a team but the Rays have no intention of trading said pitchers.
Red Sox have a better farm system than the Dodgers.Silverman is deluded
if you click through to the story, silverman doesn’t actually say the sox “don’t have the assets” to trade for sale or gray. that’s an interpretation by MLBTR, which i think is incorrect. silverman just says trading for gray or sale “isn’t an option”. he doesn’t say why. i’m assuming it’s because either their teams aren’t dealing them at all or the price is too high, not lack of prospects.
According to the up-to-date rankings at MLB.com Prospect Watch, the Red Sox have prospects at Nos. 8, 13, 40 and 62 while the Dodgers have prospects at Nos. 2, 4, 23, 24 and 58:
m.mlb.com/prospects/2015?list=la
i respect the attempt to bring in outside evidence, but the mlb.com prospect rankings are a bit ludicrous
examples – they have CJ edwards, who’s going to be a reliever, ranked 34 spots ahead of AJ reed from houston
more specific to BOS vs LAD, LA’s #24 there is peraza, who’s fine but is a speed-and-defense 2B prospect; i’d much rather have benintendi, who they have at 62
i could go on
i think they’re pretty similar systems honestly. both very good
For what it’s worth, Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each hitter, projects a 2016 fWAR of 0.6 for Jose Peraza and a negative 1.3 for Andrew Benintendi (who is barely two months younger than Peraza):
fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=…
fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=…
ok, you get peraza, i get benintendi. it’s a trade
Using Steamer is such a poor way of comparing the two. Benintendi is so far away, of course he is going to be a bad player at the MLB Level if you push him that fast! Peraza is MLB ready and Steamer recognizes that, explaining why he would contribute some value. Give it a year and Benintendi will be above Peraza on prospect list. He is the total package. Peraza is not.
Mlb.com’s rankings skewed heavily to young drafted arms and not the helium based Latin American kids. It really is a poor list. It’s to bad Kiley is gone. There will be Latin names much higher after instructs.
Outside of Holmes, DeLeon, Urias and Seager, the Dodgers really don’t have much.
The Red Sox and Astros still have deepish farm systems.
That will get traded as well.
Many fans don’t understand that you can’t trade for a Ace using only a couple of prospects. Of course a team will want a established player to go along with a few prospects so their fans don’t get mad. You get quality for quality not quality for quantity.
Agreed, I think someone actually made a formula for coming up with fan-trade proposals. I cant remember the specifics but the point was that the most tangible way to propose a deal from a fans perspective is to find a player you want, then make a proposal where your team gets shafted in the deal: that is the closest way of figuring out a trade that might actually happen.
That’d be interesting to see.
Really? What about Donaldson?
jmi1950 Brett Lawrie was in the major leagues, wasn’t he?
And not very good. Owens is in MLB, if that is so important.
He was, but hes far from an ‘established player.’
Lawrie was a “failed top prospect”
Lawrie was 24 years old and (still is) not in his prime.
Lawrie is a average 3b. His problem is staying healthy. The A’s also received 2 starters and a top prospect. That is quality in a trade. That is redsox’s problem. They would need to trade a Betts or Bogart to get a ace. Just like redsox fans A’s fans and WS fans see no reason to trade their players.
Moncada, Owens, Miley and a good 19 yr old prospect would be a better package than what Beane got for Donaldson. It is the Sox who would not make the deal.
Beane wouldn’t make that deal either. 2 back of roatation guys and 2 unknowns for a Ace. Not happening. A’s already have 5 back of rotation pitchers.
The Sox will be lucky to have a third of their top prospects “fail” as much as Lawrie has.
No one will question the Donaldson trade when Barreto has an MVP year.
Also, the Jays gave up Nolin and Graveman, who they certainly could use right now.
Barreto is still just a prospect…
Ones that come to mind are the Lee to the Mariners trade, Shields to the the Royals trade, Cabrera to the Tigers trade. Most seem to involve pitchers. Teams working from a position of strength make these trades, or teams rebuilding.
According to the up-to-date rankings at MLB.com Prospect Watch, the Red Sox have prospects at Nos. 8, 13, 40 and 62 while the Dodgers have prospects at Nos. 2, 4, 23, 24 and 58:
m.mlb.com/prospects/2015?list=la
Exactly. The bottom of the system is barren. Why they brought in Friedman and he fired almost everyone from the previous scouting and some from development as well.. Just a few months ago, or was it a year?
Anyway.. Sure fire sign something isn’t going right and take a look at what LAD have in AA and below, Previous Friedman and it’s obvious as to why the moves were made.
Talent in the Red Sox system falls off sharply after the top six or seven prospects.
Deven Marrero, a 25-year-old glove-first shortstop who posted a .256/.316/.344/.660 line in 419 plate appearances at Triple A this year, is ranked eighth and seventh in the Red Sox system by
SoxProspects and MLB.com Prospect Watch, respectively. Marrero’s overall composite ranking at ScoutingBook is No. 235.
Prospects ranked below Marrero generally posted pedestrian numbers at their levels this season:
soxprospects.com/
It’s easy to fall for the prospect hype from the Red Sox, who probably hype better than any organization in baseball.
“An ace”, yes, “an ace named Sale or Gray”, no. Sale and Gray are simply too valuable, it would be impossible for any team to trade prospects for either of them, its current cost-controlled All-Star 5+ fWAR players or nothing. Betts or Bogaerts fall into that category, but there’s no immediate reason to trade either, although Betts might be move-able eventually if say, Benintendi screams through the minors.
Dave Cameron from FanGraphs wrote an article about the 50 most valuable players in MLB. Mookie was 6 spots ahead of Gray.
Yup, both are pretty valuable. I was answering a question about whether or not Bostons prospects alone could be traded for Sale or Gray.
That was one man’s opinion. There are lots of people who have serious flaws with that list. 4 years of gray being less valuable than 3 years of machado is insane, for example
Machado is the best 3rd baseman in the game.
Gray had a 3.45 FIP.
Its debatable..
He isn’t the best 3rd baseman in AL East.
Knew I was forgetting someone.
Second best 3rd baseman in the game*
Gray isn’t an ace. It’s plain and simple. Big ball park and he can get exploited by left handed hitters. RA9 WAR loves him. However Gray is no Carlos Carrasco
How is Gray exploited by lefties? His stats against both sides are almost even. His whip is the same against both sides. If he wasn’t that good no team would be bugging Beane about trading him. There are plenty of #3 starters for trade from any team.
i woudn’t say best but id say one of the best for sure and cost controlled and young. Probably won’t reach his prime for another three years
Didn’t Fangraphs predict that the 2015 Royals would regress to 78 wins and that Panda and Hanley made the Sox AL leaders.
That’s the problem with their list, its entirely subjective on what they think players will do. That said, its a good list, but I’m not just going to say that the marlins would have to have to add prospects to a jose fernandez for manny machado trade just because Fangraphs says so.
The Sox have a lot more than what was traded for Donaldson available. And as much left as anyone. The issue is whether even Gray or Sale is worth a package the includes Moncada or Benintendi , and several pitchers who they say are untouchable.
I would not trade Bogaerts or Betts if I were the Red Sox. Those are guys you build around.
A decade ago it was Pedroia, Lester, Bucholtz, Ellsbury as the young guys on the big league club they built around
A decade later it is Bogaerts, Betts, Rodriguez for sure and likely Swihart too
If you actually read the article, they just mention trading for an ace isn’t likley because of the unavailability, not because the Redsox lack assets. The Redsox still have a top 5 farm even after the Kimbrel trade and graduating Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart, Rodriguez, Owens, and JBJ. They can pull off a trade for almsot any player without including a Betts/Bogaerts. Swihart, Rodriguez, Owens, JBJ, Moncada, Devers, Benintendi, Espinoza, Kopech, ect. They are still very well stocked.
Mike–I’m going to argue with you slightly. Your list of “off limits” players is pretty long. There’s a psychology to trading which includes a sense from the trading partner they he isn’t getting your leftovers and surplus-even if there’s quality there.
For a true Ace, Sale or Gray. They could afford 1 or 2 of Owens, Miley or Johnson plus 1 or 2 of Chavis, Marco Hernandez, Trey Ball or Sean Coyle but the 4th player would have to be one untouchable such as Moncada, Devers, Benintendi, Espinoza or Kopech which they have stated they would not do.
That wasn’t an off limits list. I was just naming off the young players/top prospects in Boston’s system that hold a lot of value. I would say the only players off limits are Betts and Bogaerts.
And Rodriguez for sure and Swihart (At least till it is clear where Vazquez stands)
The Red Sox have plenty of valuable players who might match up very well for the best pitching assets out there, assuming those were available, but the question is whether they would be willing to bundle them for an ace. The more untouchables on your roster and in your system, the more limited your options are. Dombrowski is a creative guy–I wouldn’t be shocked if he did something productive–and even controversial.
Remember what the RedSox did on November 18, 1997. A day that helped change history. The RedSox traded prized pitching prospect Carl Pavano (who was ranked the number 9 prospect in baseball going into the 1998 season) and pitching prospect Tony Armas to the Montreal Expos for young phenom Pedro Martinez, Of course the Sox traded two prospects one of which was a top 10 in baseball for a young stud. And of course we know how the three of them worked out.For the prized prospects- Armas stuck in the majors for a while as a back end of the rotation type of arm and Pavano had a solid career as a mid-back end of the rotation type of arm winning 10 or more games 4 times in his 14 big league seasons including one all star appearance where he went 18-10 in Florida in 2004 and a 17-11 record in 2010.
The young proven stud in Martinez went on to 8 all star games (6 after the trade), help the RedSox break the curse in 2004 and top[ed it all off with a walk through Cooperstown this year.
Now I am not saying that Sale or Gray is going to be Pedro but trading unproven players for proven controllable ones can certainly turn out nice and I wouldn’t mind a Moncada, Owens for Gray or Sale deal especially with the Sox great depth on the mound and the infield