The deadline or players to accept or reject their one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offers was today at 5pm ET. We already know that Colby Rasmus will become the first player to ever accept a qualifying offer, and Marco Estrada reached a two-year deal with the Blue Jays. Brett Anderson also accepted his qualifying offer from the Dodgers.
Here are the updates on the rest of the 20 players that received qualifying offers one week ago today…
- Ian Desmond will reject the Nationals’ offer, James Wagner of the Washington Post reports on Twitter. He’ll be joined on the open market by Jordan Zimmermann, who did the same, per a tweet from MLB.com’s Bill Ladson.
- While Brett Anderson will be returning on a one-year deal, Howie Kendrick and Zack Greinke have rejected their qualifying offers from the Dodgers, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reports (Twitter links),
- It’s an obvious one, but Alex Gordon will hit the open market rather than taking a one-year deal from the Royals, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com reports on Twitter. Likewise, Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy of the Padres will participate in the open market his fall (per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune, on Twitter) and Dexter Fowler has turned down his offer from the Cubs, as Paul Sullivan of 670thescore.com tweets.
- The Cardinals will stand to pick up draft choices if Jason Heyward and John Lackey sign elsewhere, as they too have rejected the offer, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter).
- Daniel Murphy and Jeff Samardzija have declined their offers, per reports from Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com (via Twitter) and Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com (also via Twitter).
- Gallardo has declined his QO, Stevenson now tweets.
- As expected, Hisashi Iwakuma has turned down the qualifying offer issued to him by the Mariners, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets.
Earlier Updates
- Stefan Stevenson of the Fort Worth Star Telegram hears differently on Gallardo, reporting that he’s still deciding whether or not to accept (links to Twitter). Gallardo’s camp has spoken to multiple other clubs about a deal, but the righty is still mulling a return to his hometown team.
- Yovani Gallardo will decline the Rangers’ qualifying offer in search of a multi-year contract, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Gallardo never seemed likely to accept the deal, though there may have been a bit of temptation given the fact that Gallardo is a Fort Worth native. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News tweets that he spoke to Gallardo’s agent, Bobby Witt, and was told that he’s yet to officially inform the Rangers one way or the other (Twitter link).
Those who are unfamiliar with the process can refer to MLBTR’s explanation of the qualifying offer system for full details.
Colby is the first ever in history or just this year to accept a QO
Ever
First in history
History
The first of firsts
First ever. But this is only the 4th year the QO has existed.
His story
Thought Gallardo would accept. Has a good track record and would be a solid 3/4 but the fact that he can’t go deep into games might really limit his earning potential.
It’s smarter for him to get a multi year deal, so many teams are in need of solid second tier pitching
Rangers will gladly accept the draft pick.
Don’t worry, he’ll get 3years from some team.
I think Brett Anderson should take it. What’s he going to get in this extremely deep market with one recent healthy season and draft pick compensation attached, like 3/$33m? And that’s assuming he even gets signed. I could very much see him remaining unsigned into the spring/summer. (As a side note, that has happened to players multiple times over the past few years; why has there been no discussion or projection of who it might happen to this year?)
Now if he takes the $16MM this year and has another solid year, he would enter next year’s free agency as a top 5 pitcher coming off two healthy seasons, though again with a qualifying offer attached assuming the Dodgers don’t fall out of it and trade him. With those conditions he could get 4/$50 or more.
Do basically he’d be risking like $15MM (but forgoing the chance that he gets screwed over through no fault of him own by not getting signed) to wait a year and make $30m-$40m more. And it really would be added money, since a guy like him can’t just assume he’ll be healthy three years from now and that he’ll be able to command a big contract. Of course he’ll have to be confident in his ability to stay healthy for one year, but hopefully he has that confidence.
I think he takes it and if he doesn’t that he gets signed really really quickly due to having something solid prearranged.
Anderson to me seems unlikely to accept due to his health issues. He’s coming off of his first strong, complete year in quite some time, seems like he should jump on any guaranteed multi-year deal, rather than accept a QO and bet on himself to stay healthy again next year
I haven’t fully thought this through, and I don’t doubt that the people who have millions of dollars at stake have, but it seems like there’s something missing here, so could anyone more knowledgeable than I am fill me in?
I know players in some sports can and do insure themselves against injury, but the idea that someone would turn down a QO to seek the security of something like 3/30 suggests there’s a performance-based insurance product that could come into play. Take the QO and buy insurance that you’ll be able to get x years and y dollars the following year. The insurance would pay the difference if you didn’t, whether because of injury or diminished performance. I suppose it would essentially work like a put option.
Again, I’m sure this isn’t some genius invention of mine, but can anyone tell me what kind of thing like this does exist? Or if it doesn’t, what is the reason?
Insurance would cover lost wages, not potential earning power. You would also have to factor in the cost of such a policy. Insurance companies are not in the business of losing money
Like I said, it could work like a put option. Maybe “derivatives contract” is a better descriptor than “insurance policy”.
The difficulty in pricing it accurately would be a good reason for it to not exist, though. You’re right. That’s the sort of thing I’m getting at.
Google Fantex. It’s where players take a sum now and sell there future potential earnings. Andrew Heaney did this.
This is very interesting. Thank you
As an example, look at Marco Estrada. He’s probably going to sign for, what, 2/29? If he was sure he’d get a QO (or better) next year, he’d demand roughly 2/32. He’s taking the hit based on the possibility of injury or poor performance. There’s enough data out there that people could (and I’m sure his team and agency have) quantify what that possibility really is.
I’m fascinated by how teams and players assess that risk. Do they come to different conclusions? If so, what role do third parties play in assuming some of the risk? It’s just an area of baseball about which I’m curious and sort of ignorant, so if anyone has any insight, I’m all ears.
What did Greg Maddux accept from the Braves way back when that kept them from doing the same the next year? Wasn’t that a QO?
Qualifying offer system has only been in place for three years. Prior to that free agents were offered salary arbitration.
What kind of deal can Kennedy get?
Extraordinary name. Common game.
I’m thinking 3/$33 sounds about right. Anything beyond four years is a bit silly. I hope he comes back to the Padres.
Please let someone else give him that and we’ll take that draft pick and run with it
This is kind of a silly question, but I remember a few years ago there was a contract snafu with Elvis Dumervil in the NFL where he had some kind of agreement in place with his contract but needed the paperwork in by a certain time, and his agent forgot to fax it in and sent it like 10 minutes late, voiding the deal and costing him a bunch of money.
So the question is, considering the deadline of 5 pm EST, if a player misses that deadline, is it an automatic rejection of the QO? I would assume so, but just asking.
Actually Dumervil was taking a pay cut and his agent didn’t file the paperwork on time…seems a little fishy no haha…..he went on to sign a big deal with the Ravens
I am a little surprised Kendrick didn’t take the QO. Last year he earned 9.5mil so 15mil is a significant pay increase and something he wont get AAV. He is only 32, he always seemed older than that to me, and I get he can get a 4 year deal worth more than 15 total, but based on his stats in 2015 15mil seems like twice what he would get normally. I guess the idea of that 15mil plus playing on a playoff caliber team are just blinding me from the logic of getting a multi year deal on this one. So my apologies if I sound stupid on this one.
“I get he can get a 4 year deal worth more than 15 total.”
With that in mind, why in God’s name would he even think of accepting the QO?