Just in time for the tenth anniversary of MLB Trade Rumors, our Top 50 Free Agents list has arrived! The entire list of available free agents can be found here, and you can filter by position, signing team, and qualifying offer status with our free agent tracker here.
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This is the fifth year for our free agent prediction contest, which allows you to test your prognostication abilities against those of the MLBTR writing team as well as other readers. Last year 3,469 people entered, with Carson Pennington taking home the batting title with 15 correct picks out of 49, a .306 average. Mark Polishuk topped MLBTR writers with 14 correct. The contest is back for 2016 and is open now! You can enter your picks anytime between now and November 13th at 11:59pm central time, and you’re free to make changes up until that point. A Facebook account is required to participate in the contest. Once all top 50 players have signed, the winners will receive cash prizes.
This year, I asked MLBTR writers Steve Adams, Jeff Todd, Mark Polishuk, Charlie Wilmoth, Zach Links, and Brad Johnson to send me their picks so I could compare to my own. Discussions with the MLBTR writing team, especially Steve and Jeff, helped inform the predictions found below. Each player’s team was picked in a vacuum, so we’re not predicting the Nationals will sign both Justin Upton and Gerardo Parra. Additionally, we’ve added our contract predictions to the mix. We vetted these as much as possible, but with 50 predictions and a volatile free agent marketplace, we know we’ll be off on some. Still, the contract predictions give a more clear criteria, as players are ranked by earning power. Without further ado, we’re proud to present MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents!
1. David Price – Cubs. Seven years, $217MM. Price is a true number one starter in his prime. The 30-year-old southpaw posted a 2.45 ERA in 220 1/3 innings for the Tigers and Blue Jays, and is ineligible for a qualifying offer due to a July trade. Price is a five-time All-Star and the 2012 Cy Young winner, and he’s got a shot at the award again this year. Even in a free agent market flush with unprecedented starting pitching, Price is the cream of the crop and should command a record deal. Clayton Kershaw’s seven-year, $215MM extension signed in January 2014 should be his target. The Cubs are the early favorite, as they are known to be seeking an impact starting pitcher and Joe Maddon managed Price with the Rays. The Blue Jays will attempt to bring Price back, while the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Giants figure to be among those in the mix.
2. Jason Heyward – Yankees. Ten years, $200MM. Since his 2010 rookie season, Heyward has quietly been one of the game’s best outfielders. He’s an excellent defender and baserunner with a solid on-base percentage and some pop. Heyward hit a career-high 27 home runs in 2012, but only 38 in the three seasons since. He doesn’t have the typical power output of a $200MM player, but his all-around game makes him a sabermetric darling with six wins above replacement this year. A very long term and an opt-out clause are on the table for Heyward because he broke into the Majors at age 20, and is now just 26. The Cardinals will try to convince Heyward to stay, but teams like the Angels, Yankees, White Sox, and Astros could make a play. For more on Heyward, click here.
3. Zack Greinke – Dodgers. Six years, $156MM. Greinke is a contender for the NL Cy Young Award after leading all of baseball with a 1.66 ERA in 222 2/3 innings. He’s been an elite starting pitcher since winning the AL award with the 2009 Royals, and has already earned over $100MM in his career. Greinke’s 2012 free agent deal with the Dodgers included a clause allowing him to opt out of the $71MM remaining over the final three seasons, and he’s done just that in search of a guarantee of more than twice that much. Since Greinke recently turned 32, a six-year deal may be out of some teams’ comfort zone. It’s possible he’ll get into the $150MM range even on a five-year term, however. His market should be similar to that of Price, but the 22 month age difference will keep Greinke from matching his contract.
4. Justin Upton – Nationals. Seven years, $147MM. Drafted first overall by the Diamondbacks a decade ago, Upton hasn’t quite reached the lofty expectations placed on him. He’s still a solid source of right-handed power, with 82 home runs over the last three seasons. Upton turned 28 in August, so there’s room to grow. Even if he doesn’t, he could still provide decent value at a contract similar to the one Jacoby Ellsbury signed two years ago with the Yankees. Nationals GM Mike Rizzo was Arizona’s scouting director when they drafted Upton, and there could be a fit if the team is willing to move Bryce Harper to center field. The Yankees, Angels, Rangers, and Giants are other potential matches. Click here for our full profile on Upton.
5. Chris Davis – Cardinals. Six years, $144MM. Davis is baseball’s most prolific home run hitter, leading the Majors in 2013 and 2015. He’s a middle of the order monster and he doesn’t turn 30 until March. Agent Scott Boras will attempt to downplay Davis’ high strikeout rate and his 2014 suspension for use of Adderall. Boras will push for seven years for Davis, a term he achieved with Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo previously. First base is not an in-demand position this winter, so finding a match for Davis is difficult. He would be a great addition to the Cardinals’ lineup if they lose Heyward. The Orioles will stay involved, while the Astros, Mariners, and Padres make some degree of sense. Click here for more on Davis.
6. Yoenis Cespedes – Angels. Six years, $140MM. Cespedes, 30, vaulted up the free agent ranks after bashing 25 home runs in the season’s final three months. Signed by the Athletics for $36MM as a free agent out of Cuba, Cespedes’ choice to limit that contract to four years has paid off. He’s ineligible for a qualifying offer, and seems unlikely to return to the Mets. The Angels are one possibility for Cespedes, though they would prefer a left-handed masher. The Astros, Giants, Mariners, White Sox, Rangers, and Yankees could get in the mix, but this one’s tough to predict.
7. Jordan Zimmermann – Blue Jays. Six years, $126MM. Zimmermann could become the first Tommy John survivor to score a $100MM contract. He has a 3.13 ERA over 810 1/3 innings over the last four seasons, but slipped a bit in 2015 and doesn’t boast the strikeout rate of other top arms. Since Zimmermann won’t turn 30 until May, a six-year term is attainable. The Blue Jays need arms, and executive Dana Brown was the Nationals’ scouting director when Zimmermann was drafted in ’07. The Cubs, Giants, Diamondbacks, and Tigers are other good matches. Click here for more on Zimmermann.
8. Johnny Cueto – Red Sox. Five years, $115MM. Cueto served as the Reds’ ace for many years until the Royals acquired him in July, removing his qualifying offer eligibility. Prior to the trade, he went two weeks between starts due to an elbow issue, but avoided the DL. Cueto was not the dominant force the Royals expected, as he posted a 4.76 ERA in 13 regular season starts and pitched poorly in two of his four postseason outings. The righty capped his season with a complete game to take Game 2 of the World Series. Cueto’s performance since August may have knocked down his free agent value, leaving teams wary of guaranteeing a sixth year. He could still be the ace the Red Sox are seeking, as predicted by five of seven MLBTR writers, or clubs such as the Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Diamondbacks, Tigers, Astros, or Blue Jays could win the bidding.
9. Alex Gordon – Royals. Five years, $105MM. Gordon was drafted second overall by the Royals in 2005, one pick after Upton. He has become one of the game’s best left fielders, combining elite defense with excellent on-base skills and decent pop. Gordon’s left-handed bat would look great in a lot of lineups, but most MLBTR writers expect him to remain in Kansas City. How far will the World Champion Royals push the hometown discount? We feel Gordon’s earning power is around $100MM, so it’s hard to picture him accepting something below $75MM.
10. Ian Desmond – Mets. Five years, $80MM. Perhaps the game’s best shortstop from 2012-14, Desmond slumped to a .233/.290/.384 batting line in 2015. He still hit 19 home runs, and is easily the best available at his position. Three MLBTR writers feel the Mets will sign their longtime Nationals adversary, while the Padres and White Sox also got mentions. Desmond will come with a qualifying offer attached.
11. Jeff Samardzija – Giants. Five years, $80MM. After posting a 2.99 ERA in 2014, Samardzija seemed like another potential member of the $100MM club. Instead, he struggled with the White Sox in 2015, leading MLB in hits and earned runs allowed. Executives to whom we’ve spoken still like him the most out of the second tier starters, and think he’ll bounce back from this year’s 4.96 ERA. Shark had an unconventional path to the Majors, serving as a wide receiver at Notre Dame and pitching mostly as a reliever until 2012. That has kept his mileage down relative to someone like Yovani Gallardo, who is a year younger but has thrown nearly 27% more career innings. The Yankees are known to like Samardzija, but the Giants, Diamondbacks, Tigers, Blue Jays, and Astros are just a few others who could get involved.
12. Mike Leake – Giants. Five years, $80MM. Leake is younger than his free agent peers, as he doesn’t turn 28 until next week. The Reds drafted him in the first round in 2009 and put him straight into the Majors in 2010. Leake profiles as a sub-4.00 ERA, mid-rotation arm, and he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer due to his trade to the Giants. His age puts five years on the table. The Giants generally retain their guys and are the prohibitive favorite, though the Diamondbacks are known to like him. To read our full profile on Leake, click here.
13. Wei-Yin Chen – Tigers. Five years, $80MM. Chen, a native of Taiwan, was signed by the Orioles out of Japan in 2012. Though he’s been prone to the longball, the lefty has posted a 3.44 ERA in 377 innings over the last two seasons. Boras figures to position him as a cut above the typical mid-rotation arms, pushing for a fifth year despite a qualifying offer. In need of multiple arms, the Boras-friendly Tigers could be a match.
14. Kenta Maeda – Diamondbacks. $20MM posting fee plus five year, $60MM contract. Maeda, 28 in April, recently finished his eighth season with Japan’s Hiroshima Carp. After he put up a 2.09 ERA in 206 1/3 innings, the Carp may decide to post Maeda. The posting system established in 2013 caps the posting fee at $20MM, allowing all teams that tie for the highest posting bid to negotiate with the player for 30 days. Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart admitted a year ago he loves Maeda, so Arizona is a strong contender.
15. Matt Wieters – Nationals. Four years, $64MM. Another former first-round draft pick, the switch-hitting Wieters has an above average bat for a catcher and little competition on the market at his position. As with Upton, there’s a feeling Wieters hasn’t lived up to expectations, but he’s still a quality player. His contract will be depressed by last year’s Tommy John surgery, which delayed his 2015 debut until June and prevented him from catching on consecutive days regularly. We expect him to turn down the Orioles’ qualifying offer, and the Nationals could sign Wieters as an upgrade over Wilson Ramos. The Braves make sense with Wieters’ strong Georgia ties, while the Angels, Astros, and White Sox could be fits. Click here for our full profile of Wieters.
16. Dexter Fowler – Mets. Four years, $60MM. Fowler, 30 in March, joined the Cubs from the Astros in a January trade. He did a fine job as the Cubs’ center fielder, playing in a career-high 156 regular season games and quieting concerns about his 2014 defensive metrics. The switch-hitter posted his standard solid OBP and a career-best 17 home runs, so he’ll be turning down the Cubs’ qualifying offer in search of a multiyear deal. A return to the Cubs makes sense, but if they decide to move on, the Mets, Nationals, Angels, Marlins, and White Sox are some decent matches. Teams like the Mariners and Rangers may seek help in center field, but may be reluctant to forfeit their first-round draft pick.
17. Daniel Murphy – Angels. Four years, $56MM. Murphy, 31 in April, has long served as a solid second baseman for the Mets. He had the best contact rate in baseball among qualified hitters this year and can also handle third base. He’s a below average defensive second baseman. After hitting a career-high 14 home runs in the regular season, Murphy smashed seven more in the span of seven postseason games against the Dodgers and Cubs. His bat quieted in the World Series, and he also committed a costly error in Game 4. The idea that 14 postseason games had his free agent value swinging $20MM in either direction was always nonsense, as a qualifying offer and a contract in the range of Chase Headley’s four-year, $52MM pact made sense for Murphy before the postseason narratives set in. The Angels and Yankees are the favorites among MLBTR writers, with the White Sox also getting a mention.
18. Scott Kazmir – Orioles. Four years, $52MM. Kazmir put up an excellent 3.10 ERA in 183 innings this year for the Athletics and Astros. Though he was either struggling or out of the Majors from 2009-12, Kazmir has re-established himself over the last three seasons. The southpaw, who is ineligible for a qualifying offer, has a case for a four-year deal. I don’t completely subscribe to the narrative, but Kazmir will have to contend with the impression that he fades down the stretch. The Orioles, perhaps seeking a more affordable southpaw to replace Wei-Yin Chen, could pursue Kazmir. The Tigers, Blue Jays, Giants, Dodgers, Padres, and Royals are other possibilities.
19. Ian Kennedy – Angels. Four years, $52MM. Kennedy had a 4.28 ERA for the Padres but seemed deserving of better. He will deal with the drag of a qualifying offer, but several teams will gravitate toward a pitcher with a 9.3 K/9 over the last two seasons. Kennedy’s biggest issue is home runs; no one posted a higher rate per nine innings this year. The Angels, Giants, Astros, Tigers, Blue Jays, and Orioles are potential suitors.
20. Yovani Gallardo – Tigers. Four years, $52MM. Gallardo, 30 in February, spent his career with the Brewers before a January trade to the Rangers. Once one of the NL’s better pitchers, Gallardo has settled in as a mid-rotation arm. His peripheral stats this year suggest he was fortunate to manage a 3.42 ERA, and his qualifying offer could hamper his market. The Tigers could work, as a team seeking multiple starters with a protected first-rounder.
21. Ben Zobrist – Yankees. Three years, $51MM. Baseball’s Swiss Army knife would fit with more than a dozen teams, as he can handle second base and the outfield corners and even back up at shortstop. Offensively, Zobrist contributes a strong OBP and good pop, plus he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer because he was traded to the Royals. He’ll be vying for a fourth year, and Victor Martinez did get that, but with Zobrist turning 35 in May it’s still a tough sell. He remains a good fit for the Royals, while the Yankees, Orioles, Padres, Astros, and White Sox could also make sense.
22. Howie Kendrick – White Sox. Four years, $50MM. Kendrick presents an alternative to Murphy, from the right side of the plate. He remains an above-average hitter and is considered a competent second baseman. After nine seasons with the Angels, Kendrick was traded to the Dodgers last December. The 32-year-old will likely seek a four-year deal, which may cause a few suitors to back away. The White Sox have a protected first-round pick and could stabilize second base with Kendrick. The Yankees, Royals, Angels, and Mets are other possibilities.
23. Byung-ho Park – Rockies. $10MM posting fee plus five-year, $40MM contract. Park, a 29-year-old first baseman from the Korea Baseball Organization, was posted by the Nexen Heroes this week. In the wake of the Pirates’ success with Jung-ho Kang, Park’s price tag should exceed that $16MM expenditure. Park had big home run numbers but played in a very homer-friendly league. We may learn next week which MLB team won the posting bidding and if the Heroes will accept it, making this an easier pick for our free agent prediction contest. The Rockies, Orioles, Cardinals, Indians, Mariners, Marlins, Padres, Phillies, and Pirates are potential matches.
24. John Lackey – Cubs. Three years, $50MM. Lackey had a fantastic year for the Cardinals, with a 2.77 ERA in 218 innings. His base salary was the league minimum due to an injury-related clause he agreed to upon signing with Theo Epstein’s Red Sox in 2009, but the Cards added $2MM in performance bonuses. After that bargain, the Cardinals made the $15.8MM qualifying offer, and Lackey is expected to turn it down in search of a multiyear deal. He recently turned 37, so some suitors could be wary of a three-year deal. The Cubs, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Astros, Royals, Giants, Tigers, Blue Jays, Orioles, Mariners, Marlins, Nationals, Rangers, Twins, and Yankees could all be part of his robust market.
25. Hisashi Iwakuma – Mariners. Three years, $45MM. Iwakuma’s run of success continued with the Mariners, as he posted a 3.54 ERA in 20 starts and pitched a no-hitter. He missed more than two months with a lat strain, however, and turns 35 in April. He’ll contend with a qualifying offer if he reaches the open market, but interest in a new deal with Seattle is mutual. Iwakuma’s market would resemble that of Lackey.
26. Colby Rasmus – Padres. Three years, $39MM. Rasmus, a 29-year-old former first-round draft pick, hit a career-high 25 home runs for the Astros this year. He added four more in nine postseason games. Rasmus can play all three outfield positions, too. One of four 2005 first-round draft picks on this list, Rasmus had trouble meshing with the Cardinals and Blue Jays clubhouses but found comfort in Houston. The Astros made him a qualifying offer, however, and the prospect of forfeiting a draft pick will give some teams pause.
27. Denard Span – Cubs. Three years, $39MM. Span, 32 in February, hit .292/.345/.404 in his three seasons with the Nationals. His center field defense rated as below average for the last two years, however. Span had hip surgery on September 1st and will spend most of the offseason recovering, potentially depressing his price tag. To the great benefit of his market, Span did not receive a qualifying offer from the Nationals. The Cubs are a good fit for Span, though it’s easier to picture a team like the Mariners coming into play since they have the first unprotected pick in the draft.
28. Brett Anderson – Dodgers. Three years, $39MM. Anderson is another interesting southpaw, although his market will be hampered by a qualifying offer from the Dodgers. Anderson is young for a free agent, as he doesn’t turn 28 until February. He doesn’t miss a ton of bats, but he led all qualified starters with a 66.3% groundball rate this year. He set a career high with 180 1/3 regular season innings with the Dodgers, after injuries limited him to 206 1/3 over the previous four seasons. Anderson’s injury history likely takes a four-year deal off the table unless the average annual value is greatly reduced. The Dodgers may retain him, especially since his leverage is reduced by their qualifying offer. Otherwise his market should resemble that of Kazmir.
29. Marco Estrada – Athletics. Three years, $30MM. Estrada looked like a non-tender candidate for the Brewers a year ago, who traded him to the Blue Jays for Adam Lind. He didn’t even join Toronto’s rotation until May 5th, but he went on to post a 3.28 ERA in 28 starts. He also raised his profile with two excellent postseason starts in three tries. The 32-year-old soft-tosser received a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays — an offer of a one-year, $15.8MM contract upon which he must decide in the next seven days. Estrada has earned $10MM in his career, so accepting the offer has to be a serious consideration. Still, Estrada would surely prefer the security of a multiyear deal, and has a good chance of finding a three-year contract even with the draft pick cost. The qualifying offer gives the Blue Jays leverage over the next week, so it’s possible he’ll strike a multiyear deal with them to remain in Toronto.
30. J.A. Happ – Royals. Three years, $30MM. Happ, a 33-year-old southpaw, posted a 4.64 ERA in 108 2/3 innings for the Mariners but a 1.85 mark in 63 1/3 for the Pirates. Assuming teams feel some of that success can be replicated outside of Pittsburgh, Happ will be a popular mid-range free agent target, as he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer and probably won’t expect a four-year deal. The Pirates will attempt to retain him, while the Royals, Orioles, Padres, Angels, Giants, Tigers, A’s, Dodgers, and Marlins also make sense.
31. David Freese – White Sox. Three years, $30MM. Freese is a decent third baseman in a market bereft of them. 33 in April, he hit .260/.328/.394 over the last three years and plays average defense. The Halos chose not to risk the one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer to Freese. That’s a big plus for his free agency and probably makes a third year possible. He could return to the Angels, while the White Sox and Indians also make sense.
32. Gerardo Parra – Nationals. Three years, $27MM. Parra was a hot commodity on the July trade market after hitting well beyond his norm for 100 games with the Brewers. The Orioles acquired him, and he tanked in the remaining 55 games. Still, Parra doesn’t turn 29 until May, he plays all three outfield positions, and he’s not eligible for a qualifying offer. Parra’s struggles against left-handed pitching prevent him from being a regular, but he’ll be a popular free agent as something between a regular and a fourth outfielder. There’s a Mike Rizzo connection since Parra came up with the D’Backs, while the White Sox, Mets, and Padres could also work.
33. Darren O’Day – Red Sox. Three years, $22.5MM. O’Day may be the best reliever on the free agent market. The sidearmer compiled a 1.92 ERA in 263 innings over four seasons with the Orioles. He has at times struggled with walks and home runs against left-handed hitters, but he doesn’t have to be used as a righty specialist. Though he recently turned 33, a three-year deal is in order. If the Orioles elect not to pay the price, the Red Sox, Tigers, Braves, Diamondbacks, and Mets are just a few potential suitors.
34. Joakim Soria – Tigers. Three years, $18MM. Soria, the former dominant Royals closer, is fully back to form after April 2012 Tommy John surgery. He became the Tigers’ closer after Joe Nathan went down with an elbow injury, and was traded to the Pirates in July. A healthy three-year deal is in order for Soria, who turns 32 in May. His market will be similar to that of O’Day, perhaps with a boost for some teams due to his closing experience.
35. Austin Jackson – Rockies. One year, $12MM. Jackson looked like a potential star after a breakout 2012 season with the Tigers. However, his offense declined and he was traded to the Mariners at the 2014 trade deadline. Seattle sent him to the Cubs this year at the August deadline. Jackson doesn’t turn 29 until February, and he plays a capable center field. There’s a good chance he can still pass as a two-win center fielder. A Boras client, Jackson could attempt to maximize his earnings now on multiyear deal, or rebuild value on a one-year pact. A return to the Cubs makes sense, while the Rockies, Marlins, Nationals, Rangers, Braves, Reds, White Sox, and Indians could also be fits.
36. Tyler Clippard – Braves. Three years, $18MM. Clippard’s strikeout and walk rates moved in the wrong direction this year, but he still compiled a 2.92 ERA in 71 innings for the Athletics and Mets. He’s a two-time All-Star who has succeeded in a setup and occasional closer role since 2009. His history of success should be enough for a three-year deal.
37. Asdrubal Cabrera – White Sox. Two years, $18MM. The Rays signed Cabrera to a one-year, $7.5MM deal in January. His longstanding record as a below-average defensive shortstop held true, but he showed some pop with 15 home runs and overall was a net positive. Some teams might prefer him at second base, where he played for the Nationals last year. The Padres or White Sox could plug him in as a stopgap at either position.
38. Mat Latos – Pirates. One year, $12MM. A few years ago, Latos seemed in line for a monster free agent deal upon hitting the market at age 28. Then bone spurs in his elbow late in 2013 led to surgery, followed by knee surgery prior to 2014 spring training, and then a flexor mass strain in his elbow. His 2014 season debut was pushed to mid-June. He had a stem cell elbow procedure in November 2014, and then the Reds traded him to the Marlins. He battled minor injuries but showed promise in his 16 starts with the Marlins this year and then joined the Dodgers via trade. Latos struggled in six outings for the Dodgers and earned his release, hooking on with the Angels in late September to make a few relief appearances. Latos will probably go for a one-year deal to rebuild value, and the Pirates have a knack for getting pitchers back on track. As one of only a couple of interesting one-year deal arms, Latos should be popular.
39. Doug Fister – Astros. One year, $10MM. Fister is the other popular one-year deal target, as he served as a dependable starting pitcher until this year. With his strikeout and groundball rates declining, and his fastball down to around 86 miles per hour, he doesn’t have the upside of Latos.
40. Mike Pelfrey – Royals. Two years, $15MM. Pelfrey isn’t the most exciting free agent starter, but the righty did make 30 starts for the Twins this year with the game’s eighth best home run prevention rate. Teams like the Royals, Tigers, and Phillies could entertain him for the back end of the rotation.
41. Antonio Bastardo – Mariners. Three years, $15MM. Bastardo profiles as the best lefty reliever on the free agent market after a 2.98 ERA in 57 1/3 innings for the Pirates. The 30-year-old does have control problems, however. The Mariners, Twins, and Cardinals are a few potential matches.
42. Ryan Madson – Twins. Three years, $15MM. Madson, 35, signed a minor league deal with the Royals in January. He hadn’t pitched in the Majors since 2011. With a 2.13 ERA and strong peripherals in 63 1/3 big league innings, Madson proved he’s all the way back as a top setup option. Suitors will prefer a two-year deal due to Madson’s age and history, but a third year might win the bid.
43. Steve Pearce – Rangers. Two years, $14MM. Pearce smashed 21 home runs in 383 plate appearances for the Orioles in 2014, but couldn’t replicate his success in his contract year. He could fill a lefty-mashing left field/first base role for the Rangers.
44. Shawn Kelley – Diamondbacks. Two years, $12MM. Kelley has a shot at a three-year deal, after he posted a 2.45 ERA, 11.1 K/9, and 2.6 BB/9 in 51 1/3 innings for the Padres this year. He’ll be appealing to a long list of teams seeking to augment the bullpen.
45. John Jaso – Orioles. Two years, $12MM. Jaso spent most of the season as the Rays’ designated hitter, and figures to remain in the American League. A wrist injury knocked him out for three months this year. The 32-year-old hit .278/.368/.439 against right-handed pitching over the last three years, but generally shouldn’t face lefties.
46. Chris B. Young – Yankees. Two years, $12MM. Young is a lefty-masher who can play all three outfield positions. If the Yankees don’t bring him back, the Rangers could be a fit.
47. Tony Sipp – Astros. Three years, $12MM. Sipp, one of the top lefty relievers on the market, revived his career by joining the Astros in 2014. He seems inclined to stay in Houston, though he may be popular enough to net a three-year offer.
48. Justin Morneau – Orioles. One year, $8MM. After winning a batting title with the Rockies last year, Morneau played in just 49 games in 2015 due to a strained neck and concussion symptoms. A move back to the American League makes sense.
49. Alexei Ramirez – Padres. One year, $7.5MM. Ramirez’s $10MM option was a borderline call for the White Sox, but they ultimately chose the $1MM buyout. The 34-year-old struggled mightily in the season’s first three months, but hit a respectable .282/.329/.426 in the second half. His defense might be a little below average at this point, but teams seeking a shortstop can’t be too picky.
50. Rich Hill – Phillies. One year, $5MM. Hill, 36 in March, rose from the ashes to twirl four brilliant starts for the Red Sox in September and October. He’s a southpaw with a huge curveball and career-long control issues. His last run of success as a starter came in 2007, but I like using the last spot on this list for a wild card.
Honorable mentions: Mark Buehrle, Bartolo Colon, Nori Aoki, Rajai Davis, Alejandro De Aza, Jimmy Rollins, Mike Napoli, Marlon Byrd, Chase Utley, David Murphy, Tim Lincecum, Mark Lowe, Alex Rios, Chris Young
Cuban righty Yaisel Sierra has been left off the top 50 list since the timing of his free agency remains an unknown.
Great to see this list. Well done!
As we all know MLB TR is exactly accurate… maybe not, but it is fun!
Yeah I don’t think any of us are confident in the team predictions, really. It’s totally a best guess. But like you say, fun!
These predictions are ANYTHING but well done!!! AT least 90% off on the money and teams!!!
Out of curiosity, since so many of your comments are filled with such certitude, what level of accuracy do you think you could get to with these predictions?
I registered for the comments so I could like this comment.
Curmudgeon. Do you also tell 5 year olds in the mall that the guy in the center court atrium is NOT Santa Claus?
I have my four-year-old daughter tell them!!!
(I haven’t really, but I wouldn’t put it past her this winter.)
That’s why we have our contest! Get in there and beat us!
Calls someone out.
Doesn’t offer his own thoughts.
Hey it’s the Internet!
I love complaints like this, you’re guess differs from my guess so therefore yours is stupid.
I wanted to downvote this more than once but it wouldn’t let me
My favorite post of the entire year. Thanks for continuing to do this. However as a Phillies fan, this is pretty depressing.
Phillies look good long-term, just not in ’16 & ’17. My advice, breathe deeply and just watch the Astros and think “my team is next”.
you don’t have Jose Altuve, Dallas Keuchel, George Springer, and Carlos Correa type players in your system though. JP Crawford looks good, but he’s not even close to Correa
We have Nola, Franco, Crawford, Nick Williams, Knapp, Alfaro, Thompson, Herrera, Eickoff, Randolph and Altherr plus a lot more money than Houston does. Its a start.
Well, kind of expected that since according to the phillies gm they won’t make any splashes on the open market
Not completely. You should expect MacPhail and Klentak to hit the market and sign a handful of 1-year free agents with an eye on flipping them at the break for more talent. If the Phillies play this offseason right they could become a very solid team two years down the road.
Wow over 250 mil on 2 players for the Yankees? Yikes!!
Actually it’s not a prediction they’ll sign both players. More that I like them for each, on an individual level.
I doubt the Cardinals will sign Davis, for if they dont sign Heyward, I see them pursuing Byung-Ho Park. Davis would be a great addition nonetheless.
That’s not necessarily an option. The bids on Park are due today, and he’ll only be able to negotiate/sign with the winning team. There’s no way for them to wait to see if they can sign Heyward, then use Park as a backup plan. They have to beat the market and bid on him right now without knowing what’s going to happen with Heyward.
Steve, couldn’t they do what the Braves did with Olivera though? Lose him but then trade for him asap?
The Braves paid a huge price for Olivera in terms of Peraza and Alex Wood.
That’s true, but if any team has the farm to make that move, its the Cards.
Question on this: could they win the bidding (still don’t know who won yet I think), see what happens with Heyward in the next 30 days and, if they get Heyward, let Park walk and get the posting fee refunded
Sure, they could. Not negotiating in good faith is not a way to operate an MLB team. Also, the likelihood that we’ll know any more about where Heyward is going in 30 days than we do now is very slim.
I get the good faith part, but I think they’ll know at least whether or not they have a realistic shot of signing him.
Yeah surprised by Davis being mentioned… interesting to think about though.
Itd be a great power addition no doubt. However, its really decided by if Heyward stays or leaves
Well, if Heyward gets $200 mil, he won’t be with the Cards. They offered Pujols $200 mil and he had much better numbers than Heyward. I think Davis may actually be in play, as I think the Cards will offer Heyward $150 mil and when he declines, Davis fills that money slot quite nicely.
Well said hallzilla. I dont think the Cards will sign Heyward if its going into $200 million range (which it will), but they dont necessarily need him back. The difference between Pujols and Heyward is age, for Heyward is a rare type of free agent considering hes 26, so a 10 yr deal would work. But I dont see the Cards shelling out that much still. It would stink considering what they gave up to acquire him, but at least theres a compensation draft pick
Honestly I think it’s more of a lack of options for Davis. There aren’t many teams out there that need a first baseman AND have the money to sign him. The teams Tim mentioned (Cardinals, Orioles, Astros, Mariners, Padres) are the only ones that fit the mold and many of them are a stretch in certain requirements. Do the Astros or the Orioles have the money? Do the Mariners want to give up their pick (11th overall) AND spend heavily on another player (Felix + Cano + Cruz)? Are the Padres going to spend heavily again / do they have the money to do so?
The true wild card that isn’t mentioned I think would be the Nationals, but they would have to pull a Tigers and have terrible defense at 3B for the foreseeable future.
This hits the nail on the head. It’s more that I felt the Cardinals were the least of a stretch.
As a Cardinal fan myself, I’d rather see the Cardinals sign Davis rather than Heyward because Piscotty is a good right fielder in his own right and seems to be better offensively. Plus, signing Davis and letting Heyward walk basically allows them to get a better spot in the first round of the draft (assuming the signer didn’t have an awful record last year). The Cardinals, however, seem adamant about their want to sign Heyward, which seems redundant to me given all of the OF talent the Cardinals currently have.
First look. I have to disagree on the Tigers’ projected signings. Under Dombrowski, they always looked for the power arms, and I just don’t see Avila changing that approach. Both Gallardo and Chen will also cost draft picks, and I see them being protective of those after just giving a boost to the farm after their sell off.
They could well do some trading to fill needs, same as any of these teams. But I think the Tigers sign at least one QO starting pitcher, especially with a protected first rounder. Hard throwing point is valid; we’d be on board with Shark or Kazmir if you think they qualify.
Yeah, I feel like I’ve heard Kazmir to Tigers very often in the early goings of the offseason. Possibly him and someone like Fister, Kennedy, Estrada, etc. that could be a potential #4 starter is realistic. They could obviously make a trade, but I feel that they’ll look the free agent market instead.
Kenny Rogers may the the best known free agent starter Dombrowski signed. They like hard throwers, but…All four are possible.
That I would agree with. I like Kazmir. I know Shark throws hard but I think he lacks the intangibles. I think hes a lot like Edwin Jackson. While they may sign a QO player, I think they will try to avoid it if possible, not just because of the draft pick, but QO players will cost more, and there is a limit to their payroll.
Pardon me if I’m off base on this, but don’t a majority of the Tigers moves come from the aging owner, who basically gets his heart set on someone and then obtains them, as he’s very old and wants a win in his short lifetime? DD may have made moves on his own, but I thought that’s how the Tigers were doing business these days.
Never give Boras the home phone if you are an owner. Other than Fielder, who sat on Illitch’s lap as a kid, and firing DD after DD chose to sell off at the deadline, I believe the GM has done most of the moves.
Tigers are completely unpredictable. I am not sure if they will go with FA pitchers or not. Norris, Fulmer, Greene, Lobstein, Farmer and Boyd all could be good enough to make the team as starters. Do they really need to overpay for 2 middle of the road Starting Pitchers when they they already have a half dozen of them at league minimum salary?
All but Fulmer started in 2015 and how did that end up.
You are too optimistic about the rookies and too pessimistic regarding established FA.
Your statement and logic could be correct in 2-3 years, but only 2(Greene and Norris) could be looked at as a #4 SP with a #3 upside in 2016. Having 2 or 3 in the rotation will not make Detroit a playoff team in 2016. Only JV and Sanchez have spots now.
All of the SP Detroit will target have proven track records throwing in the Majors.They cannot afford to “experiment” with rookies and expect to win in 2016.Expect to see 1 of them as a starter and at least 1 in the pen. The rest will get another solid year in AAA honing their skills.
If the Tigers cannot find at least one more 200 inning pitcher, their already suspect bullpen will be taxed again. That is why. JV and Sanchez “anchor” their staff but at present, neither can be counted on for 200 innings until it actually happens. I feel confident that I can put Sanchez on the dl at least once every year. If you play the youngsters for 3, 4, & 5, you need a bullpen capable of stepping in by the 6-7th inning every game. In the Tigers press conferences, Avila stated a need for 2 Starters, but the bullpen AGAIN was not the priority. Farmer and Verhagen have already been moved out of starting. They are iffy on Ryan as a starter, having moved him to the pen late last season. I think we already saw the best Lobstein has to offer. Boyd gave up homers like he was playing wiffle ball. Who knows if Greene will be either healthy or effective. Fullmer looks like a good prospect, but lets not rush him, like they did with Farmer. Expect more of these prospects to be in the bullpen than the rotation, because they seem to be unwilling to buy middle relief.
Cueto on a 5 year deal shouldnt be bad. He has his questions, but over the last 5 or so years he’s been one of the better pitchers in baseball.
I like him in the NL more than the AL. He seemed a little exposed on the Royals at times.
Small sample size, it was also late in the season/he had probelms with Perez.
I think he will be ok in the AL.
I agree with “ok” in the AL, but he could be dominant in the NL – not many non-HOF level pitchers have pulled off the NL->AL switch with success over the last few years. The “freebie” out replaced by an actual hitter in a DH tends to get in a lot of guys heads, as a lot of lifetime NL guys get used to the interruption/rally killing/horrible last 3 hitters in almost every NL lineup, when a lot of AL teams go 1-9.
I like him a lot a what Tim has him projected at and in Boston. Pedro Martinez loves him also and they are friends.. It would be perfect. Cueto would have his own personal HOF coach at hand all the time.
If the Angels are going to sign a player who turned down a QO, I think it will be Heyward or Gordon not Murphy.
I would prefer them to go after Gordon. I think Johnny G can play second, and maybe they give third to kubitza or cowart.
I’d really like them to target Ben Zobrist to play either 2B or 3B and let Johnny, Cowart, and Kubitza fight for the remaining infield spot.
Zobrist would be perfect
Zobrist isn’t leaving KC. He’s already said he wants to stay. I mean they even named their new daughter’s middle name Royal…how can the Royals turn him down?
simply by resigning Gordon. Can not keep both
I like the Angels for Heyward or Gordon. I had them for Heyward as my pick here for quite a while, but then decided they’ll go for a more middle of the order type.
I wish they traded for CarGo at the deadline
But if the Angels sign Heyward or Gordon first, Murphy only costs them a 2nd round pick. That way the damage doesn’t seem as bad.
will the angels go over the 189 luxury tax to make a deep post season run? they also need an ace or a solid number 2 pitcher, jordan zimmermann or mike leake would be perfect for them
I’ve got the Cubs signing price and span, too.
However, I don’t see the Cubs giving lackey 3 years.
No way the Cubs touch Span Period! They want Fowler back and then are going after Hayward. No chance Price gets over $160 Million either.
No chance? When he does get well over $160M I hope you come back and admit you were wrong.
I really doubt the Cubs spend much money on offense. Yeah they strike out waaaay too much, but they have so much talent and two pretty large voids in their rotation.
Oh, so they are going to sign fowler and then heyward?
You know nothing about this organization.
Price is getting over 200m for sure..
I actually agree with the Span part. The market will pay Fowler more than the Cubs will be willing to offer. I think the Cubs will focus their financial assets on free agency and look to fill positional needs like CF via trades.
Hard to see Lackey getting 3, I think it will be 2 but who knows? I think he would be a good fit in Chicago though.
I’d prefer the Cubs chase Cueto over Price, I prefer a second right hander to match up against the priates and cards than a 2nd lefty. Just personal preference from watching Cueto more so than Price.
Actually I prefer the cubs going after jordan zimmermann and john lackey, they will get two great pitchers for the price of one, I think boston will try to over pay for cueto. I think greinke leaves the dodgers and goes to the giants, and if the cubs skip on price not sure where he would end up, maybe the jays end up paying for him
I’m still stuck in 2014 and wanting to protect draft picks for the Cubs, agreed though picking up both Lacky and Zimm would be a great combo to grab and really give this team some depth at pitching. I think the Marlin’s might be a sleeper for Grienke and the Dodgers getting Price, Friedman loves him as well.
Greinke would be nice but I think the giants actually snag him away from the dodgers
No chance the Giants get Greinke period!!! The Dodgers will never let their arch rivals steal their prized free agent!!!
If the Giants sign Greinke Which I think they might, it’s going to be very under the radar. The Dodgers won’t know it’s coming. Management already said they were going to keep all potential signings on a down low unlike last year.
If Tim Lincecum signs with Seattle, which I think he might since his home is there, it’s going to be very under the radar since he’s injured and he owes his career to SF. So if he wants to pitch closer to home on a $1 million guaranteed deal, the Giants who are taking he’ll stay for granted, won’t know it’s coming. Management already said they were going to keep all potential signings on the down low, while they publicized their support and willingness to re-sign Lincecum as a reliever on a guaranteed deal.
That said, I think it’s just as unlikely as Greinke quietly slinking to SF.
I’ve seen strange things happen, and It wouldn’t shock me if he left Kershaw and company to go be with the giants , and it’s an even year, their suppose to win
Unfortunately, its not the Dodgers decision, it’s Greinke’s.
I agree angelsfan, I think SF gets him.
two great pitchers for the price of one? who’s the one pitcher? Kershaw?
I think Price thinking that playing under his father figure Joe Maddon is too good an idea to pass up, and he might even not take the best offer on the table to sign with the Cubs – although he’s definitely getting over $200M.
My fave Cubs move is to sign both Price and Greinke and proceed to laugh at everyone as they make the next 5 WS’s in a row with ease – and I’m not even a Cubs fan, but the proposition of that rotation plus that lineup filled with young, cheap stars would just be so good – it would be crazy to see if they could win 120 games in a year. They probably could even afford it, with Rizzo locked in on a 6/59 deal and Soler on a 5/23 one.
Like I said in my post , I think it would be better for the cubs to sign Zimmermann and Lackey, or maybe trade some prospects for sonny gray or maybe salazar
The Cubs won the MLBTR writers’ vote for Zimmermann, but he’s not enough of an impact arm for me.
He would be a great number 3 for the cubs, and then they can slide hammel and hendricks down to 4 and 5. Zimmermann is a great pitcher and he would be a steal for the cubs. I would rather have him over price’s post season record. Zimmermann is a bulldog
No chance in heck Price gets ANYWHERE near $200 Million PERIOD!!!! I’ll be stunned if he tops the $160 Million mark.
Better buy a stack of stunner shades then, because there’s probably going to be multiple players getting that much this offseason.
Prepare to be stunned then. Scherzer got $210 million at the same age Price is now, and salaries aren’t exactly decreasing.
you are either 12 years old or 87 eh?
Can’t wait to come back when Price gets over $200 million.
Good God, that Lackey contract would be worse than Edwin Jackson’s. And giving up a draft pick, too. If that happens everyone in the Cubs front office should be fired immediately.
I don’t see the cubs needing to sign Price. That would give them 3 aces. Kinda would believe they spend the money in the outfield.
Every team in baseball would love 3 aces. All of them. And they’d do anything to get them.
I agree. I see the Cubs signing Hayward and then Cueto myself.
So no chance LA allows Greinke to leave for SF but STL watches Heyward go to Chicago?
no way the cubs spend on heyward, they have almora and mckinny waiting in the wings, I think they just re-sign folwer or jackson until Almora is ready.
Doubt it will happen, but the Tigers need to replace Cespedes, are short on LH hitters (are losing Avila to FA), and have no top prospect position players. Heyward would actually be a nice fit with the Motown Kitties.
Heyward shouldn’t be a blocker for Almora or McKinney.
Simply sign Heyward to play CF this year. Keep Schwarber and Soler in LF and RF respectively. If they truly believe that Schwarber will be a catcher, then when it comes time for Almora/McKinney to come up, you slide Heyward over to RF, move Soler and his bad defense to LF, and you’re set.
I don’t think the Cubs see Schwarber as anything but a hitter. Putting him at catcher forces them to sit him more than they’d like. LF seems to be his future, at least until he’s traded, becomes a FA, or Rizzo suffers an injury. He’s still young so he might get better at LF. He looks pretty awful out there right now though.
I think Jackson is probably the answer for 2016 depending on how the Cubs feel about Almora. His development slowed a bit last year and he’ll likely start 2016 in AAA.
Jays have been interested in leake for a long time. I see the Jays signing him.
He’d probably hit 20 homers there too.
He’s a pitcher dude and thus won’t get the at bats!
You aren’t living up to your user name.
You’re telling me you think the best player the Astros sign is Doug Fister? You might want to double check your homework on that one.
Agreed, it makes no sense – if he’s looking for a “restore value” 1-year deal -he’s going to Seattle, Oakland or SD, nowhere else. He’d get mauled in Houston.
I love the Astros, and think they are probably going to have the most successful run out of any AL team in the next 10 years. With that said, what makes you think they’ll be able to sign a bigger name Free Agent? Historically they’ve had a smaller payroll and also a smaller market size.
I think they’d probably want to sign a Price, Heyward, Zimmerman (ect.), but the problem is they know they’d be outbid by Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox ect. Also, their success hinges on not spending big on one player. It weighs organizations down.
I should probably ask you though, I’m not deeply informed about Houston baseball, who do you see as a realistic target for the ‘Stros? I feel like you being a fan would have a better idea of what the FO would be willing to spend.
I would expect them to sign a outfielder and I get a feeling it won’t be Rasmus. I see a number 2 starter similar to Zimmerman or Ceuto maybe the next tier below them. And then a trade for a top closer…kimbrel.. Cough cough
They had the second lowest payroll last year but that’s bc they haven’t been in the position to make big contracts. Lunhow said years ago he expects the team to be in the middle of the pack in payroll once they’re competitive and I think this is year to go get a few top guys
Nah, I don’t think three teams have completely cornered the market on the one-year deal pitchers, nor do I think the Astros are unable to sign one.
If you’re trying to build value, why not go to a park that favors you the most?
It’s a consideration, but guys choose teams for lots of reasons.
Maybe the teams that play in those parks aren’t interested in you? Go ask guys like Eric Bedard and Roberto Hernandez why they signed single-season contracts with the Astros in recent years.
There’s a massive, massive drop from Fister to those two, who were at the end of their careers, they were older, were coming off bad years and signed for like $2M each. Fister’s poor performance came from injury and looks like an outlier. He’s still a $10M guy, those other two were toast.
You assume that Fister is capable of returning to his former self and is not nearing the end of his career as well. You also assume that Fister would easily turn down an offer from a possible contender in favor of pitching for a non-contender with a favorable ball park.
That’s not how this works, really. The prediction relates to the single team most likely to sign any individual player as best we can guess.
Also, bear in mind re HOU: they already did some shopping at last year’s deadline, and might also have some good routes to more deals.
The list shouldn’t really be looked at in that way. Now, if the Astros had come up in zero player blurbs throughout, then you’d have more of a point.
I take Cueto and O’day anyday but I feel like the Sox need at least one more reliever
They redsux won’t get either as both emphatically stated they won’t go there period!!!
Please provide articles with those quotes.
I’m interested in seeing where the market for David Murphy goes
While I love the idea of trying to predict contract years/money, predicting teams is so difficult, hence the the “30% correct wins the contest” thing. However it is a lot of fun to take a look at your expert opinions as you know more than most!
Great stuff as usual. I think the Os go much bigger this season. Like, Zimmerman, Oday, Davis, and Heyward adding 65 million to the payroll. Equal to an increase of 45 plus the 20 they saved not having to pay the Nats. I know it’s not their norm but they see the window closing.
Just want to make clear: the Nats money is probably just delayed. The decision had nothing to do with the underlying merits of the dispute.
They are going to owe some/all of what was awarded at some point.
Interesting, I had taken it to mean the Os kept 20 million that was thought to be owed to the Nats. Being deferred may be worse as it might result in the Os owing a big payment at some point. Maybe Comcast will eventually come back in play.
All the ruling did was say that the original arbitration award was invalid. (Because the Nats’ attorneys also represented the league.) That gives the O’s a) leverage in negotiations b) further delay in sharing the money and c) another bite at the apple to argue their case.
Re the deferred $$$, I’m sure the organization is savvy enough to plan for that. It means they get to keep the money for longer, if nothing else, which is a good thing from a financial perspective.
NO chance in heck dude! The O’s front office already completely ruled that out!!!
Would love Desmond at that price if I’m the Mets. He bounced back into normal Desmond production after his bad start. Would also like to see them push hard for O’Day, as the bullpen is a big question mark.
I picked Desmond going to the Mets also. That contract seems very fair. I don’t see Fowler going to the Mets.
I don’t like Desmond with the Mets. We’ve already seen what bad middle infield defense can lead to. Also he didn’t really bounce back that greatly. He played well for 5 weeks out of six months. That’s not good
I think your numbers on O’Day are a little low, even though you say he’s the best reliever on the FA market, you don’t really have him paid like one.
I’m thinking 4/35 and even up to 40 for him. Sure he’s not Miller, but he is clearly the best guy out there a team can get without giving up top prospects, as Kimbrel & Chapman are more than likely available at that particular price.
He seems too old for four, unless it’s 4/24 or something. I could be wrong, I know Steve has kicked around four.
Age 33-36 is not “too old” – especially for a 32 year old who just blew his career bests in K/9 and BB/9 out of the water. There’s absolutely nothing to show that a pitcher like O’Day is going to be bad at 36. Ziegler is a very similar guy who just had a fantastic year at 35.
Well, what’s the precedent of a guy like O’Day getting a four-year deal at a top reliever AAV?
Billy Wagner – 2005 (Age 34) 4-years/$43M despite a poor health track record and spending half the previous season on the DL. This is the only example I can think of off the top of my head. MLB trends are usually 2-year deals with an option or 3-year deals.
Well, that was a decade ago to one of baseball’s top overall relievers, plus he was a closer. I’m thinking more Scott Linebrink or something.
I think the phrase “guy like O’Day” actually means “best reliever on the market” this year, whereas it wouldn’t in previous ones. He definitely picked a great year to be a FA.
It can mean the best RP on the market, but also someone at or around his age without many saves on his resume. O’Day could get a four-year deal, though. I’m only like 60/40 toward three, I don’t want to overstate it.
Am i the only one who wants to see the jays sign Oday, just so him and joey bats can have intense staredowns all day? hahah
Miller got 4/36. Oday isnt going beyond that. Maybe 3/24.
If Red Sox don’t sign or trade for a credible Ace, I feel the fans’ heads will explode. They don’t want another offseason of acquiring several mid-rotation starters. And certainly not another extension/signing like Rick Porcello.
I think they will target Greinke or Cueto – perhaps both. They have a ton of prospect firepower to pull off a trade for a guy not on this list too.
Yeah I agree, I’m just interest to see how hard the push in trade talks for OAK’s Gray and CHW’s Sale. Not likely, according to teams, but I heard BOS ownership would rather get a controllable, younger Ace than an expensive, 30 yr + one.
Yeah that’s not happening with Oak or CWS, but a team like the Mets sure does have a massive amount of controllable, younger aces on their team, I see them as a better matchup with Boston.
If the Red Sox want one of the Mets pitchers, they’re gonna have to do a massive overpay. I don’t see them trading deGrom, Syndergaard, or Matz because they have the most control remaining. There’s an outside shot at Harvey or Wheeler, but you’d probably have to give Bogaerts and Betts. I wouldn’t do it if I was Boston, but hey, ya never know
So, are you guys predicting that the Dodgers will bring back Greinke and Anderson and sign none of the other top 50 free agents?
No, we’re not predicting that. But, I do find that plausible.
Billy Eppler better not give up a first rounder for Daniel Murphy of all people. The only FA that got a QO the Angels should be looking at is Jason Heyward. Also, I don’t see the Kennedy to Angels signing as very likely as he’s not much of an upgrade over what we already have. Only starters the Angels would probably be interested in are in the top 11
I think he’s a significant upgrade over the middle/back of their rotation as-is.
Both predictions for the Mets are preposterous. No way Mets shell out that kind of money for Desmond, especially when Flores put up comparable numbers and they are about on par defensively. Fowler also is not a significant upgrade over Lagares.
I don’t think it’s preposterous at all to suggest the Mets may sign a free agent to a $60MM contract, or an $80MM one. I would be surprised if the Mets’ evaluations put Flores and Lagares close to Desmond and Fowler, but I have no inside info on that.
‘Preposterous’ might be a bit hyperbolic, but given how conservative the Mets have been financially, coupled with the fact that they’ve already been burned repeatedly by big contracts the past few years (Cuddyer), I don’t see them committing not only the money, but also that many years to a player on the wrong side of 30 coming off a down season. Also one with a qualifying offer attached. Fowler also is a thoroughly mediocre player. He only hit 250 in what is mostly a hitters’ park. I’m not saying the Mets don’t need upgrades, I just see either of those two as upgrades. I can see them making a push for one big player, probably an outfielder, and/or seeing how they can upgrade through trades. The rest of their free agent money will go to strengthening the bench and bullpen. Just my humble blah-bitty-blah.
I don’t know what they’re planning. But I don’t consider Fowler mediocre. He’s pretty good. $15MM a year buys pretty good these days. Lagares is a huge question mark and is being paid like a fourth outfielder anyway.
Agreed with you on Fowler, I just don’t see that one at all. $15M for a guy who might not be better than a healthy Lagares doesn’t make sense to me.
Desmond, though, would be a good move at that price. Desmond and Flores/Herrera would be an improvement over Flores/Murphy both offensively and defensively. Herrera might not pan out and/or Flores could take a step back. Considering their contender status, they should be pushing hard now.
Fowler on the Mets and Heyward on the Yankees really don’t sound right at all. Lots of other moves would have to happen for those to go down. For starters, the Mets would have to trade Lagares and the Yankees would have to trade Gardner. Not saying either of those would happen, but that’s the danger in predicting teams, along with years and money.
I see the Mets getting a guy to platoon with Lagares who is capable to take over in the short term in case Lagares flops and turns into a 4th or 5th OF. But that’s the worst case scenario with him and there’s not much to show that would happen.
Flores is not a SS. Desmond is. Why don’t the Mets shell out that money? Weren’t they just in the World Series. Now free agents are going to want to sign with the Mets.
Mets aren’t going to want Desmond due to poor defense, awful offense production last year, what Scott Boras will want for him, and the draft pick tied to him
They gave up a higher pick for Michael Cuddyer. I don’t think the pick is going to hold them back on Desmond.
Leake and the Shark would definitely keep the even year train rolling. I think Leake will sign with SF but I’m not as confident about about the Shark. Of course, if Samardzija chooses to go elsewhere, I wouldn’t mind seeing Greinke in Black and Orange.
Lets do it again big fella.
Cards are going to pass on Heyward but give Davis a higher AAV. Doubt it.
I do not expect the Twins to be that involved in the free agent market this year but one player I could see them going after is Matt Wieters. They have very little at that position throughout the organization.
So the only predicted rangers’ signing is for a lefty power 1b/LF which they already have in Moreland and Gallo in a lopsided lefty lineup? Wow and I highly doubt they don’t resign Gallardo and/or sign another mid rotation arm as they won’t have Darvish for 3 months.
Pearce bats right-handed.
Sorry, misread the article where it said lefty masher thinking it meant batting left handed. I still don’t find Pearce a fit just because the Rangers have a couple studs possibly eyeing promotions in Brinson and Nomar. I’m hoping that maybe Napoli wants to stay in Texas. He seems to play better here anyways, but that would mean having to dump Moreland this winter.
I’d rather have Pearce for that role than Napoli, personally.
If those predictions of dollars and years for O’Day & Pearce are in that ballpark they should be back in Baltimore. I really think the Orioles are players this offseason. If Davis, Weiters & Chen all sign somewhere else they should be all over players that don’t have a QO attached to them.
Pearce isn’t going anywhere. A Buck favorite and he loves Balto. O’Day get’s a minimum of 8 for 3 or 4 and though he’s been an awesome asset for the birds, Gyvens and Brach and even Bundy will solidify the pen. With Britton again closing. O’Day will be a closer for someone.
Asking Gyvens, Brach & Bundy to soften the loss of O’Day is a bit much. A lights out bullpen for a team with so so SP is needed. Of all the O’s FA I think O’Day is the one that’s needed the most but also weirdly the one that’s most replaceable. They need to either spend on a Top SP that can go more then 6 innings or they need to spend on the bullpen and shorten the games.
I like the idea of the Tigers taking a borderline QO player at a discount. Not sure who, but that is a way they can save money and get a decent player.
Nice job, and I like the links. It’s always a little dizzying to see the biggest spending teams possibly in on half a dozen or more players. think of the luxury tax if they actually decided to go for most of them.
The prediction for Cueto seems like a bit of a low ball offer to me.
Cueto 8 seasons – 3.30 ERA
Price 8 seasons – 3.09 ERA
Zimmerman 7 seasons – 3.32 ERA
It seems that Cueto’s 13 start stint with the Royals heavily factored into reducing his value in your opinion. Cueto’s post season consisted of 2 gems, 1 mediocre start, and 1 dud. Price didn’t pitch any particularly strong games in the post season though. Comparing Price and Cueto, Cueto had a dominating 2014 and a strong start to 2015 before a poor second half. Price had a good although not elite 2014 and more of a dominating 2015. Granted ERA isn’t everything but I think both pitchers are aces. The gap between proposed contracts should be much closer than estimated. Also, I think Cueto should be higher than Zimmerman. He still had a better 2015 than Zimmerman and has been better overall for the last 4 seasons.
Cueto has much more variability in his market than the other two, in my view. I guess you could argue we are on the lower side.
We did factor in his second half, certainly, but not just by looking at results. The real issue is that he had a sustained run where he didn’t look himself (Ks way down, GB rate down, for example) and while there was chatter about elbows and such. That’s the concern, really, more so than just a rough stretch.
It’s also worth noting that Cueto (like Zimmermann) has way overperformed his SIERA (as well as FIP/xFIP) numbers. He’s always had really low BABIPs. This season provided some evidence against the “he’s just one of those guys” view. (Remember, Matt Cain used to be one of those guys.)
And his ~9 K/9, 240+ inning season from 2014 now looks more like an upward blip in an otherwise merely very good career. (Same holds true for Zimmermann, again.)
I’m a little biased because I am a Reds fan and saw him pitch every 5 days. You’re right that he had outperformed peripherals every year up until this year as a result of his poor second half. Something just seemed off between Cueto and Salvador Perez and how they worked together with WS game 2 as a microcosm of that. I guess I look at the 5 year, 115 million deal and think if only we (Cincinnati) had signed Cueto for that instead of shelling out 105 million for Homer Bailey. I think Cueto should at least be in the Jon Lester range for a contract.
Greinke to the Yankees (he wants to be no.1 starter), Heyward to the Dodgers (then trade Puig for pitching), Cardinals will not be signing Chris Davis for the money mentioned,Price will stay in Toronto (will start hanging out with Drake and learn to produce music) Lackey to Cubs is a no brainer, Cueto and Zimmerman to the Dodgers (cover for Greinke going to the Yankees and Byung-ho Park to the Cardinals. Whatever happens these guys will be retiring early in life, I will be working till I’m 65 (if I’m lucky).
No way Hal allows the Yankees to 1) spend the money required to get Greinke 2) spend without corresponding money coming off the books.
Hal isn’t George.
I’d take my post with a grain of salt, it’s not like I’d put money on my predictions.
I noticed that you have to save your 50 predictions via Facebook. I don’t have a Facebook account and have no interest in acquiring 1. So maybe next time organise voting through this web site, thanks.
We’ve covered this issue many times. I’ll let Tim decide if he wants to explain in detail, because I forget, but basically: it would be impossible to do this fun, free contest logistically without running it through facebook.
I get your feelings on it, as I am also not a facebook user, but it was chosen for good and valid reasons.
I didn’t make time to revisit it this year, and I apologize for that. The main reason behind Facebook is that I liked the idea of a leaderboard with real names on it, kind of like a baseball leaderboard. I think FB gets us the most real names on that list. Plus, I didn’t want to make people create, and email verify, new accounts just for the contest.
We could attempt to support a bunch of different types of logins, from Google to FB to your MLBTR commenting account, and just ask for your real name upon submission and note that those using an alias are not eligible for prizes. I guess I just don’t want a leaderboard full of handles, possibly with the attendant moderation for that.
appreciate the response, cheers
more people, especially teenagers, should get off Facebook and into the real world. Thanks for the explanation.
You make it sound like you have to pay money. Whats so difficult?
Just my personal views that social media can be beneficial but also it projects fakeness and living a fantasy life, get out into the real world you know, who cares how many Facebook friends you have, real friends accept you for who you are, spend time with them, don’t judge your self worth on strangers who don’t know you. It’s also a platform for bullying, I could go on and on, but basically it doesn’t sit right with me.
Just create a fake account; not a big deal. I use a FB account named after a book character to make comments on sites that use FB commenting.
Of course this is just for fun, so please don’t take this comment as critical (I’m genuinely curious), but if Washington signs JUp and Parra, where does that leave Werth and Taylor? Bryce is definitely set in stone so are they both moved?
Edit: I should learn to read before posting!
Chris Davis doesn’t really seem like the sort of player the Cardinals tend to target. Too low of an OBP and far too high of a K-rate, especially at the contract you guys are suggesting. Given the fact that Matt Adams should be returning next season, along with Brandon Moss… and the emergence of Stephen Piscotty…… I’d think that they would be more inclined to go with in-house options and possibly use whatever money they have to re-sign Heyward or try to counter whatever pitching upgrades the Cubs acquire to replace Lackey.
Though, the idea is an intriguing one.
“Too low of an OBP”
Of Cardinals players, only two, Carpenter and Holliday, had higher a OBP than Davis did last year.
“Far too high a K-rate”
Davis had a 31.0 K-rate last season. Grichuk had 31.4, Reynolds had 28.0, Moss had 27.8, Bourjos had 26.2.
You don’t know what you’re talking about.
Nobody on the whole team had off the chart OBP this year, so what’s your point? Grichuk, Reynolds, and Bourjos all made chump change, not $144MM. His point is that Mozeilak doesn’t hand $144 mil to a FA just because they *could*leave the park in any given at-bat. Do you actually watch any games?
Precisely the point. Also, Mozeliak isn’t likely to take just one year’s performance into consideration…. especially when Chris Davis looks like the most likely player to bust with a big contract of all those on this top 100 list. Put him in the AL Central, and he gets eaten alive by Arrieta, Lester, Hammel, Cole, Liriano, Jungmann, Davies, and Iglesias…. not to mention the big power arms that lineup every pen in the division.
First of all, small sample size. You should look beyond one year when discusing the fate of a FA who will most likely be signed to a contract of 4 years or more. To do otherwise is quite short-sighted.
Secondly, nice way to compare bench-warming role players to a guy whose salary would force him into the lineup each and every day regardless of how well or poorly he performs! Yet I’m the one who doesn’t know what I’m talking about? Seriously, Bourjos and Reynolds are part of the basis of your support?
Thirdly Grichuk was a rookie, who saw his K-rate gradually drop off the more he played. Even still, his 30.2% K-rate is better than Davis’ career 31.1% K-rate. Grichuk has better upside overall, is 6 years younger, and will be at least $15M cheaper AAV for the next 3-4 years.
Moss strikes out at a rate of 26.3% for his career, 5% less than Davis, and in 2 of the past 4 years… has had a higher OBP.
As for OBP, Davis holds a career OBP line of .330. He’s had all of 2 seasons in his career with an OBP of .335 or above. In fact, over the past 4 season of his “resurgence”, Davis has posted a .341 OBP despite two season of .360 or higher. He is every bit as likely as to post a .320 OBP over the next 5 years as he is to post a .360 OBP. The Cardinals this past year had only 1 player who was considered a regular and posted below a .320 OBP… and that was Molina.
But hey, I don’t know what I’m talking about… right?
Greinke & Anderson to the Dodgers is a bit odd. I thought that the off season was to improve the team from the previous year. The resources the Dodgers have & the willingness to spend, according to this list, Dodgers are bringing back the same team.
The Dodgers had a great team last year and barely had Seager or Puig. Full seasons from those two will improve them.
It’s not a prediction of that. More that looking at each player individually, I liked the Dodgers the most for them. Anderson was a last-minute change from the Padres, with credit going to Steve Adams. He’s a potentially tough signing for another team to make with the draft pick cost added, because he’s so risky.
Wait, Rich Hill is the 50th best free agent? How many free agents are there? Like 53?
Did you SEE him last year? He was outstanding!!!
In an extremely small sample size that was light years better than he’d ever been as a starter.
Tim was a massive Rich Hill fan in the early days of this site. It must please him so see Hill as a relevant player again.
Ugh, Cueto is the last guy I want to see in a Sox uniform. His performance after coming to the AL sends huge false flags. Yeah, yeah, small sample size, but he’s overrated (always has been) and seems like not the classiest guy out there. I would rather trade for a young ace than sign him.
Also, the Red Sox NEED to sign an outfielder. Having JBJ and Castillo as your starters should be cause for concern, not celebration.
Wow, you don’t know anything about what a good baseball player is if you don’t like JBJ or Castillo. Questioning Cueto’s “classiness” too…hmm, none of those guys are white, care to explain?
Look I’d love Bradley on my team but I have no problem with Cueto being called out. I wouldn’t phrase it as a lack of classiness but the guy is a coward and ended a guys career. Typical baseball argument people bundle up and push and yell but nah there’s cueto sitting on the fence bicycle kicking people and giving a guy a concussion and ending his career. Cueto is a tool
Two biggest issues I have with this list are a) kazmir, who is too much of a question mark(yes, still) for a team that rarely chases free agents. I doubt the os would take such a risk
And b) clippard, who the braves have have historically destroyed due to good scouting. If Atlanta’s scouting can figure him out to a tee I doubt they’ll be willing to give him 3 years. Bastardo makes a lot more sense. In fact, the braves and their protected draft pick will be much more involved this off season if you ask me. With a weak free agent crop next season they are gonna stock up a little. Wieters would be the main target I’d think.
Those are both good points, and I did give them some consideration. The O’s may well prefer a safer or cheaper starting pitcher, but who would that actually be?
I wouldn’t pretend to be able to narrow down which RP the Braves will go for…it’s more a statement that they’ll be in that market (obvious to followers of the team I guess).
I’d gather that there’s a better chance of them going after Shark or Leake than Kaz. If I’m them(and the Pirates more so them), I’m definitely offering an incentive deal to Lincecum, Happ, Anderson, or Hill(who will cost nothing comparatively) before Kazmir though.
Fair point on RPs. EJax pitched very well for them last season. While reunions with Moylan and O’Flaherty seem very possible.
I don’t know if I can see the Orioles in that $80MM range for a starting pitcher (if our projections are in the ballpark).
Surprised to not see the Dodgers in on the relievers. Awesome list nonetheless. Yeah many of these won’t happen, but still a great read.
No SP for the Yankees? Fail.
I had them as the Shark pick for quite a while, but changed it at the last minute. It seemed too obvious. Surely they could add an arm, could be via trade.
Who would have though a few years ago that Lincecum would be an honorable mention. How the mighty have fallen. I also think they are going to make a big play for Greinke, try hard to resign Leake (and think they will be successful). I also would not be at all surprised to see them target Austin Jackson, given Pagan’s struggles with injuries the last couple of seasons and his slipping defense.
Fun post. I do hope you’re off base on the Mets-Desmond connection, however. I would hate to see those young talented starting pitchers’ fates in the hands of one of the worst fielding shortstops in baseball.
“hands of one of the worst fielding shortstops in baseball.”
Well, they did just go through a season of having Flores and Murphy up the middle. Desmond is a better SS than Flores, and Flores is a better 2B than Murphy. Defense would slightly improve.
I really just don’t understand some of these.
1) I don’t think the Yankees will sign Heyward because they seem more interested in cheaper and younger options and don’t have a lot of room in the outfield next year
2) There’s no way the Mets give up 2 picks for Fowler and Desmond. They’re also not going to spend $30M on those guys
3) I don’t understand how the Nats get Upton, Parra, and Wieters. That’s $46M for next year which I don’t think they have plus it would limit them from retaining their younger players (Harper, Rendon, Strasburg, etc) and Scherzer’s contract increases as well
4) Where do the Angels have the money to sign Murphy and Cespedes?
On a completely different note, I don’t believe the Cubs should give that much money to Price. $30M is a huge commitment to a guy from age 30-37 and I don’t think Chicago would like to be headed over the luxury tax threshold, which is where they’d probably have to go unless they sold off a lot of guys because you won’t be trading Price or Lester with the contracts. I just don’t see them being able to afford Bryant, Russell, Schwarber, Rizzo, and Arrieta with the money already committed to Lester and what could be Price. I think its worth seeing what you can get on the trade market, I don’t know who’s available and for what price, but they need to keep their payroll down now while they can, or at least that’s what I think
1. It’s true that the Heyward pick requires them making a trade, and also true that they could decide to sit out top FAs, they’ve done it before.
2. That’s not what we’re suggesting.
3. Ditto
4. Ditto
I think this year Arte Moreno decides to go all in and go over the luxury tax, he said he is willing to do it if it’s for the right players.
You don’t think the Jays could top the A’s offer of 3 years 30 mil?
Why would they want to? He’s a one year wonder.
I think they would choose not to.
$31,000,000 per year for 7 years is an unwise investment for any player, no matter how good he might be. And at age 30, it’s even more risky. Contracts like these can tie up a team for years. Case in point is Joe Mauer on my Twins. I understand it was a deal they felt they had to make, and I love the guy, but the last three years don’t look good at all. Teams should learn from the past.
Thing is, MLB players make nothing when they are at their most productive.
And why should the team pay for that? Teams shouldn’t pay for what the player did they should pay for what the player is going to do in the future
I was looking for the Blue Jays to pickup Zimmerman to replace Price, also want them to pick up Latos and Fister to add depth to long relief, as I suspect Sanchez or Dickey could get knocked out early throughout the season…
I’d love for the Rockies to try for Cueto at 5/115. It might be a disaster, but it might not and at least they would be trying to field a competitive team. At some point they have to admit that their plan of not having a plan is not working all that well.
I’d say about 90% of your contract numbers seem pretty reasonable, but Desmond and Lackey’s projections stand out as completely insane to me. Lackey was part of entire staff that, as talented as they are, still collectively played out of their minds all season, and Desmond’s bat has been on the decline for two years now (and I didn’t love it that much to begin with). Their markets may well get them that kind of money, but at those prices, they’re the biggest, and most likely, cases of buyer’s remorse on the board.
Is Zobrist really worth 17 mil per at age 35 and really just being a super utility guy? Granted it’s only for 3 years, but yikes. Pretty sure that’s like a 10 mil annual bump in pay. I was thinking he is worth, tops, 12-13 mil/season…. likely on a 3 year deal which takes care of his 35, 36, and 37 age seasons……. he ain’t young anymore and he really only provides versatility at a high level. If he’s your everyday stater though at any position he’s pretty average I’d think.
As a Cub fan I hope and pray they don’t sign Lackey. I don’t see why they would. I think with about 90% certainty they’d sign one of price, cueto, or Zimmermann. Then they’ll likely package castro with prospects for a second quality SP. If castro isn’t sexy enough for other teams they’ll keep him and trade baez instead but with a smaller or lower stock of prospects. Potential trade partners? White sox, Padres, and Mets. Castro, Gleyber Torres, Albert Almora and Daniel vogelbach for……. Matt Harvey? Mets need MI and young positional help desperately. Castro is a proven above average offensive shortstop and actually a decent fielding SS despite the gripes about his errors. He has solid range. He can also pay 2b. Torres is the Cubs #1 prospect and is a stud middle infielder as well. Will likely be in the top 50 prospects lists cone spring training. If not it will be because he’s still super young. Almora is a GG caliber future center fielder who should hit for average. Vogelbach is a big masher at 1B. His stock in the Cubs system would likely be higher if not blocked by rizzo. Wright ain’t getting any younger, or durable. Duda could take over 3B and vogelbach could be their 1Bman of the future. All for harvey and a low level prospect. Imo its more than fair for the Mets. 4 potential long term solutions in the field for 1 SP…… while they still have degrom, syndergaard, and Matz among others in their system and already on their staff. Jose quintana on the sox and tyson ross are the other 2 SPs I expect to see them go after if/when the harvey possibility becomes unlikely regardless who is offered.
Personally, I’d like to see the Cubs sign cueto or Zimmermann and then rise as the dark horse winner and sign jason Heyward as well, in addition to acquiring one of the 3 mentioned starting pitchers in a trade. That would be nasty.
Arrieta
Lester
Zimmermann
Tyson ross?/quintana?/harvey?
Kyle hendricks/jason hammel
CF Heyward
SS Russell
3B Bryant
1B Rizzo
LF Schwarber
RF Soler
C Montero
SP
2B Baez
……… yes please
Harvey has an EGO as he should and wouldn’t be a 4th pitcher. Cubs would let him pitch 1st or 2nd if he came. its really not a big deal once the season gets going
Oh I know. I just slotted him there because it’s uncertain who they could possibly land, if any of them. Let’s say by the grace of god they do land harvey in a deal and sign Zimmermann to a 22-23 mil per deal. I think the rotation would be arrieta, Lester, harvey, Zimmerman, hendricks/Hammel. That’s a nasty rotation. Let’s face it too. After the first go around in the rotation in April there really is no set specific order of starting pitchers. One just either does well or doesn’t. Look at arrieta this year. He was their #2 SP on the opening day roster. He was lights out though so throughout the year the Cubs tried to start him and Lester as much as possible. Also, I don’t think Harveys ego is any bigger than any other potential, young ace. Outside of opening day starters there really is no other time positron in the rotation determines who the ace is.
might happen… in mlb the show 15- just make sure “force trades” are on.
Duda at 3B??? Lucas Duda at 3B??? LOL what??? Have you not seen him throw?
Would be awesome but i highly doubt the angels will sign cespedes, murphy, and kennedy with about 27+ mil in salary space, angels would have to move atleast a santiago, wilson, skaggs. Plus that extra money that the angels are paying hamilton to play for texas will hinder the angels payroll for a couple years.
We are not suggesting they sign all those players. It gets kind of buried, but this is what I wrote in the post:
“Each player’s team was picked in a vacuum, so we’re not predicting the Nationals will sign both Justin Upton and Gerardo Parra.”
I like the idea of the Pirates bringing Latos in as this year’s reclamation guy, however they need to do more than just that to bolster the rotation. Cole and Liriano is a hell of a 1-2 punch, but things are shaky after that. Which Charlie Morton will they get? The one that had a 3.74 ERA and 3.76 FIP in 495 1/3 IP in 2011-2014, or the one that had a 4.81 ERA, albeit a 4.19 FIP and 3.87 xFIP, last season? Jeff Lock is flat out awful, Brandon Cumpton is done, Tyler Glasnow won’t sniff Pittsburgh before mid-June, and who knows what’s up with Taillon as he has missed essentially two straight seasons.
Like I said, I’d like them to bring in Latos as a reclamation guy to help round out the rotation, but they’ll need more. Honestly, I believe they need to bring in at least three starters this offseason. I’d love to resign Happ, sign Latos, and then swing a trade for a #3 or #4 type starters.
Mike Leake, Jeff Samardzija, Hisashi Iwakuma, and Yovani Gallardo are all guys I’d love for them to go after as well. However, due to their price tag and the fact they have a QO attached will eliminate the Pirates. Not only will Bob Nutting not cough up the money needed to sign one of those guys, there’s also no way they’d give up a draft pick.
If the Cubs do indeed end up with a rotation that has a top 4 of Price, Arrieta, Lester, and Lackey to go with that lineup, the NL Central is in a lot of trouble. The entire NL is.
I would rather see the cubs go after Lackey and Zimmermann, then they get two great pitchers for the price of one, then if they want to they can go trade some prospects and get a young controlled ace.
As a Pirate fan, I’d rather see the Cubs do none of the above :). In all seriousness though, with the money the Cubs are willing to spend and Price’s ties to Maddon I really can not see him anywhere else. I get what you’re saying though, and it makes sense.
It seems like it is already ready written , Price to the cubs, but if it’s not the cubs who get price , not sure who else. the dodgers prolly because I think greinke leaves them and he goes to the giants
I agree if not the Cubs it’ll be the Dodgers, Blue Jays could be a sleeper to retain him too I suppose.
Or he takes less money and say he goes to the nationals as another sleeper.
I am curious if the team at Mlbtr thinks that the Red sox will be making a bigger splash in the trade market? A lot of the news is saying the Sox will be the team that runs the stove. You have them down for two guys I believe, will you be doing an article on the trade market?
Sure, we’ll be writing about the trade market a lot.
Grienke will be signing with the Cardinals.
I don’t think they spend on pitching, the only pitcher I see them bringing back is Lackey but I have the cubs getting him. They are going to try everything to bring Heyward back
If that happens, I’ll be ready to punt on the 2016 Pirates season.
Pirates won what, 98 games last year, and you’d be willing to punt 2016 just because some other team makes additions??? WoW – You’re a true fan. I’m a Phillies fan and won’t bail on them…
I’m fine with barely seeing my Braves represented considering, but Clippard? I know we need a lot of relief help, but Clippard’s numbers are an anomaly. It was fun watching him on the mound in the playoffs knowing he’d be the one that KC would strike against — and usually did.
Anyone like Grienke signing with the Cardinals?
Not unless the Dodgers prefer Price. LAD will grab one or the other of those two. If the D’s take Price, Grienke will be uber-popular, as an ace you only have to commit 4 or 5 years to. Red Sox and Yankees will be all over him.
Leake will signed with the Giants or Diamondbacks. He wants to hit!!!!
I think Leake could be a good fit for the angels, I know the angels need an ace but I think a solid number 2 or 3 pitcher would be good for them . It would give them extra depth and add some length. I think the giants really do push hard for Greinke, they pushed hard for Lester last year
Angels have only so much payroll space and they’re gonna use it on a left-hand hitting position player. It my mind, I’ve already put them down for trading for Cargo or perhaps Jay Bruce.
To go back to one of my other posts, if you think the Cubs are going to spend $60 mil/season this off season I really hope lackey and span have nothing to do with that HUGE increase in payroll. An increase the front office said they wouldn’t make go up much more than I think $30 mil from last year which was about $120-125 mil last year. Again, zimmermann or Cueto plus jason Heyward would only be about $40-45 mil wrapped up in 2 players annually. Heck, cueto, Zimmerman, and Heyward would be about 67 mil annually between the 3,not much more than what price, span, and lackey would cost….. according to your predictions. If you think they’ll add $60+ mil in payroll through free agency I’d MUCH rather see the 3 I mentioned than the 3 you guys mentioned. Landing cueto, zim, and Heyward for roughly the same price as price, lackey, and span goes to show how overhyped and overpaid price will be this offseason. Cueto, zim, and Heyward…… plus a trade for either ross, quintana, or harvey would give the Cubs not only the best rotation but also the deepest rotation in the league.
Lester, cueto, Arrieta, Zimmermann, Ross/quintana/harvey… with hendricks and hammel as your reserves in the pen as long relievers…. oh my god.
CF Heyward
SS Russell
3B Bryant
1B Rizzo
LF Schwarber
RF Soler
C Montero
2B Baez
IF La Stella
IF Herrera????
OF Coghlan
OF Szczur
C Ross
SP Lester
SP Cueto
SP Arrieta
SP Zimmerman
SP Quintana/Ross/Harvey
CL Rondon
SU1 Strop
SU2 Neil Ramirez
RP Grimm
RP Wood
RP Hammel
RP Hendricks/CJ Edwards
All for about $165ish mil for 2016….. I’m getting a little aroused just thinking about it.
keep dreaming… Tell me, to acquire one of those 3 (Quintana/Ross/Harvey) – who is the Cubs willing to trade for any one of them.. Surely it would have to include 1 of Schwarber or Baez and then a few more prospects.
Baez is worth very little.
Ick I don’t like that the Jays only get one player on this list so I hope you’re wrong hahah. They need at least 2 starters and a bunch of new bullpen arms. I wouldn’t mind taking a run at Davis in anticipation of one of Bautista or Encarnacion walking next year and also just to watch that lineup with him included would be comical.
So kind of you to include the Phillies in on 1 FA (Hill)
Thanks.
Signing of the year.
If the Mets were to pick up Fowler he’d probably be the starter in CF? I don’t see a platoon with lagares working because neither of those guys hits right handed pitching particularly well. I mean, fowler drew a lot of walks vs righties but it’d be a waste not to play him vs lefties, because he mashes them.
In this scenario, which only really comes about because I personally like the fit for the Mets and Fowler, he definitely plays CF full-time. Lagares fits in nicely still because he’s paid like a fourth outfielder anyway and he can spot Conforto and Granderson against LHP. Or, he could undergo Tommy John surgery and mostly be a non-factor for 2016.
1. I’m not sure why the Mets would want to spend that much on Fowler, considering they already have a solid outfield of Conforto, Lagares, and Granderson. 2. If the Cubs managed to sign Price, they would be in the World Series for sure. 3. I feel players like Cespedes will end up with much more on their contracts.
I don’t really understand Ian Desmond being that high at all. Then again you guys are smarter than me haha
My one hope for next year is mets make horrible signing decisions, lose one,two starters to injury,lose cespedes,keep Murphy and….go back to being the mets…I’d love nothing more. A team….THE team,in the NL D E S P I S E. Harvey,hurt…. Degrom….realizes hes over his head . Luke Noah…hope they trade him. Or rely on matz,Wheeler. What a lucky team…who’s luck,hopefully ,ran out with Harvey in that ninth inning..
I realize these picks are made in a vacuum and pretty much a dart throw, but it makes no sense for the Cardinals to not match the Yankees bid on Heyward of ave annual value of 20 mil, with an opt out clause he would likely exercise after 4-5 yrs and then process to sign a 30 yr old who is less talented to a 6 yr deal with a 24 mil ave annual value. If you don’t think they would pay up for Heyward than you can’t think they would pay more for an inferior player.
If we assume both contract projections are correct, a big “if,” then the Heyward commitment is 39% more. So it’s one thing to see them go beyond the Holliday deal but still short of $150MM, and another to see them doing a deal starting with a 2. Now, if Davis actually costs 7/182, as projected by Jon Heyman, I don’t see the Cardinals doing that.
It’s also possible that the club could see Davis as the guy who would make more of an impact on their lineup. He obviously changes the dynamic, while Heyward’s contributions are more well-rounded but less impressive at the plate. They may feel they don’t have a 40 HR guy in the org, but they do have corner OFs they like.
As an O’s fan it’s disheartening to see them listed as losing talented players, and adding players who are definitely “past their prime”.
as a Padres fan, I dont see Preller going after Rasmus or Alexei Ramirez, for all kinds of reasons….quite frankly, get the sense that he believes he can do better than either of those guys. And I like them, both. But its not Preller’s way to do the typical trade. However, with starting pitching being something that every team is starving for, I could EASILY see Mat Latos returning to the Padres to re establish himself. But it would probably be two yrs or nothing, because Latos’s agent could possibly back Preller up against the wall, with a demand of two yrs, in light of how hard up Preller will be for starting pitching.
Lee Dae-ho, 1B for the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks is thinking about making the jump to the U.S. He’s 33 but has 30 HR pop, a good K/BB ratio and is a decent defender (won 4 GG in Korea). He’s played 3B in the past, but would project more as a 1B/DH. Having watched him play, he’s a guy who could provide quality ABs for an American League squad.
Does it make sense that a SP with more fWar this year than Gallardo, Kazmir, Pelfrey, Estrada, Iwakuma, Anderson, Leake, Latos, Kennedy, Fister, and Hill didn’t even merit honorable mention?
wow… 300+ on 3 players for the cubs.. I’m not sure they go that far in terms of spending this off-season. 200+ yes but 300+ is massive for any team
I’m calling it now, whoever signs cespedes to a 6 year deal will see him turn into Carlos Lee in three years and will be praying for someone to take that contract away just like the Astros were with El Cabio.
What baloney. Clearly not based on any serious reporting. Just a bunch of made up “predictions.” Really disappointing.
At what point did we say it would be anything more than largely speculative projections? At this stage of the offseason, every prediction is just a shot in the dark. Very little of the groundwork that goes into signing a player has been completed in early November. Anyone who produces a list of this size at this point and claims to definitively have strong indications as to where the majority of players is going is probably full of it.
There might be a handful of guys that have a likely team in place right now, but beyond that, the market is wide open.
What you apparently were expecting probably doesn’t exist. We could’ve spoken to every exec in baseball — and we did chat with some, as Tim indicated above — and still been left with mostly guesswork. There’s little consensus, and most teams/agents still don’t have an honest idea as to where a given player is going right now.
The Mets already have a solid hitting/weak fielding SS in Wilmer Flores. So why would the frugal Mets spend $80 on Desmond when we really need BP help? As for Fowler, he doesn’t hit right-handed pitching that well so that would not make him a good candidate to platoon with Lagares.
Nice try though, MLBTR.
I know the Cubs and Dodgers are popular destinations for Price, but he’s also been pretty vocal about his disdain for batting in his career. Add to that the likelihood of Toronto fielding a competitive offer and his former boss Dave Dombroski now in Boston, it’s really hard to imagine a scenario where he leaves the AL.
Woah, did you guys predict David Price’s contract correct to the million? Impressive.
I just quickly glanced (I’ll look more closely later) But do you study teams at all? Price to the Cubs, that was lazy…just because they have Maddon doesnt mean Theo would want to spend the money after already buying Lester. And there are many more. I would suggest doing more homework before throwing player names at teams.
More homework? We spent untold hours on this. Predicting a single team is a very, very difficult task.
Remember, too, that it was done long before most of the rumors and connections began being reported.
Yes more homework. Im sure it took a long time, especially when youre dealing with 40 names but only getting around 6 names right proves my point. When compiling something like this you need to look at team history, their payroll as it stands and how it looks going forward, positions of needs vs money available to spend, whether theyre more likely to trade or sign a free agent and on and on.
You have several players listed for the Yankees yet most people know the Steinbrenners are trying to get under the tax threshold, IE they werent looking to spend money, especially big money at this time. Similiar goes for the Rockies but in a different way, IE when was the last time they spent big money on a free agent? They have done squat this winter. The Angels are listed several times but just like the above teams and more no one bothered to look at their payroll. When was the last time Toronto invested big money on 1 player?
If you study these things you can narrow down the teams a player could end up with. Better to list a player and say he could end up with 1 of 3 teams then try to randomly guess he ends up with 1 team based on poor information.
You think we didn’t consider those things? Really? That’s what we read, think, and write about all day here.
What you fail to understand is that 1) getting only X names right is not surprising, at all, as it’s utter guesswork; 2) we often list other possibilities for clubs, with the one single prediction more for fun than anything else; 3) your assumptions about what teams will and won’t do aren’t necessarily true.
We obviously weigh heavily what an ownership/front office has done and where their resources stand. The Yankees have broken past pledges to limit spending, for example, while the Angels had plenty of ways to sign major players while trimming elsewhere (or just going over the cap for one year). And on the other side of things, the Mets and DBacks both have busted recent spending trends this winter. As for the Rockies, they have not only pursued recent significant free agents, but have signed several multi-year deals already this offseason, so I don’t know why you’d call the modest predictions unrealistic.
It’s fine if you want to suggest we didn’t do a good job of it or explain why one or another prediction was foolish. I’m not going to argue with your right to have an opposing opinion, and I’m sure we could’ve done better. But it’s comical to suggest we just aren’t aware of or don’t care about those fundamental aspects of the market.
Thats interesting because if you used all this knowledge you should be able to predict better. When I do the same type of article the Worst ive ever been is 30% accuracy with the best being close to 70%.
As for Colorado I said when was the last time they spent BIG? Not that they dont ever sign anyone, that would be stupid But they dont ever sign big named, big monied free agents, not in the last few years anyway. In fact theyve tried to trade away their more expensive players, part of why theyve tried to trade Cargo and why they were successful in trading Tulo.
People love to read these columns but if they find you are way off in your predictions theyll stop reading them. If you regurally get the predictions correct or a high percentage of the time then they’ll keep reading. Im giving you a hard time because I enjoy the site but I expect better results in articles such as these, especially when I myself predict at a much higher rate.
Nice call on Fister to Houston for 1 year… Money is almost exactly in line too (at least in line with what he’ll realistically reach based on his incentive structure)
So does the contest keep going until Justin Mourneau signs?