Jon Heyman of CBS Sports kicks off Friday morning with a pair of columns — the first being a piece on Zack Greinke’s opt-out status and the second being his weekly Inside Baseball column. Heyman writes in the first piece that Greinke will indeed opt out of the remaining three years and $71MM on his Dodgers contract, as has been widely anticipated for the better part of a year. One general manager suggested to Heyman that Greinke will receive, “at minimum,” multiple offers of $125MM over the next five seasons. That GM wagered a guess at the winning bid: $150MM over five years. Heyman notes that while many teams — the Cubs, Giants, Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, D-Backs and Rangers, among others — will be in the mix for Greinke this winter, the right-hander enjoyed 2015 with the Dodgers more than he enjoyed his first two seasons, and L.A. will attempt to bring him back. Per Heyman, Greinke didn’t mesh with Josh Beckett and Hanley Ramirez in previous years but had nothing but positive feelings about the 2015 campaign.
Onto some highlights from his second column…
- There’s no certainty on the job status of Don Mattingly right now despite three consecutive division titles, Heyman writes. Mattingly is well-liked by the new Dodgers front office on a personal level, and the team is pleased with how he handled Andre Ethier’s shift to a part-time role, A.J. Ellis’ shift to a backup role in favor of Yasmani Grandal, and the emergence of Corey Seager over Jimmy Rollins late in the year. Mattingly’s people-managing skills are valued by the Dodgers, even if his in-game tactics aren’t quite as strong. Heyman notes that with the Dodgers unconvinced of Mattingly as their long-term option, they may allow him to interview with other clubs, and both the Nationals and Marlins would show interest.
- The Orioles are believed to be hesitant to make a qualifying offer to Matt Wieters and will only do so if they’re convinced that he won’t take it. (I can’t imagine a Scott Boras client that plays a premium position in the midst of his prime age doing so under any circumstances.) The White Sox will make a QO to Jeff Samardzija, who will not accept it, as has been suggested multiple times over the past couple of months.
- Colby Rasmus, on the other hand, is not expected to receive a $15.8MM qualifying offer from the Astros despite 25 regular-season homers and a strong postseason showing. Heyman writes that Alex Gordon will be “a name to keep an eye on” in connection with the Astros this offseason, as the team may look to inject its lineup with more on-base percentage and batting average than the 2015 crop. They’ll also look for more steady production at first and third base this winter after a season of boom-or-bust results from Luis Valbuena and Chris Carter.
- The Dodgers are set on making a qualifying offer to Howie Kendrick and are also planning on making a QO to Brett Anderson despite his injury history. The latter of the two drew some surprise when Heyman shared it with execs around the league, though as he points out, L.A. is in need of pitching. If Anderson accepts — again, a scenario I find unlikely given his age and strong 2015 results — he’d solidify a spot in the rotation behind Clayton Kershaw. And, I’ll point out, Anderson’s 2016 salary would then check in just $3.4MM north of the $12.4MM he earned in total after receiving a $10MM base salary and earning another $2.4MM worth of innings-based incentives this season.
- The Twins are willing to pay a premium to bring Torii Hunter back to their clubhouse if he’s willing to take a reduced role. Hunter, though, has been resistant to that idea in the past. He’s not yet decided whether or not he’ll return to the Majors for his age-41 season or call it a career.
- Other qualifying offer notes from Heyman throughout the column indicate that Padres people have suggested that they’ll make a QO to Ian Kennedy, though rival execs remain skeptical. Current expectation in the industry is that the Mets won’t make a qualifying offer to Daniel Murphy, and the same is true of the Nationals with regard to Denard Span, who suffered through an injury-shortened season. Kennedy and Murphy seem like easy calls to decline the qualifying offer to me, whereas Span is a tougher case due to his age and injuries, which included season-ending hip surgery. I can see a case for Span taking the $15.8MM payday — the initial contract extension he signed with the Twins, after all, was only for $16.5MM guaranteed, though that rose to $25MM after his 2016 option was exercised.
- The Nationals have received permission from the Giants to interview bench coach Ron Wotus to fill their managerial vacancy. Wotus has coached on the Giants’ Major League staff for the past 17 seasons and is a two-time Minor League Manager of the Year.
It will be interesting to see if the Dodgers try to re-sign Kendrick, or if they acquired Peraza in the Braves-Marlins deal to play 2nd in 2016. Rollins and Kendrick made $20M between the two of them, so Seager/Peraza could be major savings. $10M from Haren and approximately $15M from Kemp come off the books in 2016 as well. Money was never an issue anyway, but the Dodgers will have more financial flexibility without having to continue to expand their payroll. They spent in 2015 in part so they would more financial flexibility in the future. It’s very possible the Dodgers re-sign Greinke as well as pick up another ace in Price/Cueto, while still having a lower payroll.
I highly doubt the Dodgers get two aces via free agency. There is going to be too many teams in on all of them for the the Dodgers to outbid twice. Chances are, they get the guy they want, and possibly trade for another (for example, a Puig-Salazar swap). Also, I’m not sure if the Dodgers continue with as high of a payroll going forward. I don’t think they are making much of a profit (and could be losing), so I could see them cutting payroll a bit going forward. I still think it is a close-guarantee they get one of the aces in free agency this offseason, but I could see them going with Peraza at 2nd.
The Dodgers have about $365 in local broadcast revenue ($335 from television that nobody can watch) before the first of their 3.4M tickets is sold each year. They could spend another $100M in salary, pay the max cap tax (which they aren’t at yet), spend 10X their international salary allocation, AND two posting fees a year and still have somewhere on the order of a 10% operating margin.
You have to take into account the debt service they incurred as a result of the team purchase. The money given to McCourt was substantial and a good part of it financed. I don’t know if the exact figures are out there but they can’t operate like the team has been paid off completely like the Yankees can.
My comment was in relation to the operating incomes provided by Forbes last year of each team. The chart states that the Dodgers were at a lost last year, and as we know, their tax percentage continues to rise each year because they are over the luxury tax threshold. However, I’m not sure if that includes the broadcasting revenue as well.
The next set of data Forbes puts out will be the first with the new broadcast revenue.
Taking the Forbes numbers and running with them to decide solidly what a team can or can’t put into player payroll misses a lot.
If the Dodgers keep that nonsense up you can be sure the 29 other teams will do something about it. Maybe that tax should be 5000% instead of the tiny amount it is. That would stop them.
The QO is going to kill Samardzija’s market. IMO he needs to sign a 1 year deal to try to rebuild some value. But who is going to give up a draft pick on 1 year of Samardzija? The Pirates seem like the best landing spot for Shark, but not with the QO attached to him.
It hurts his market, it in no way even comes close to killing it, teams with protected picks will have no problem signing him either. A return to Oakland on an incentive laden contract makes a lot of sense for both sides. If Oakland is priced out Miami would also make a ton of sense.
I could see a team like the Phillies also in the mix. They have plenty of young position players, will have a protected top pick, can afford him, and don’t really have a top-end starting pitcher in the system to complement Nola. If I were the Phils, though, I’d be looking at guys like Kazmir, Leake, or even a Price or Cueto since those guys won’t have the QO attached.
Sure it kills his market. No one wants to forfeit their first rounder to sign him and his 4.96 ERA
I can see that too. Pirates are known for rebuilding the value of pitchers and they could really use an arm like the shark’s now that AJ and JA are on the free market.
If J.A. Happ isn’t Exhibit A for Pittsburgh helping rebuild value, I don’t know who is…
Every team in the game has a claim to fame with fixing some pitcher who has been cast around the league without success, then finding just the right team and guy within a particular organization who can fix their particular problem. Andrew Miller and Boston for instance. People here knock on Boston all the time for no pitchers, can’t fix them, can’t develop them. etc.. Miller was cast throughout the league for years until all of his mechanical issues were fixed in Boston and turned into the finest LH reliever now in the game.
*Maybe* the Cardinals can lay claim as an organization with a years long track record of fixing pitchers with issues, but other teams it’s just hit and miss with the right coach for the right particular problem.
I’ll give Boston credit for turning potential starting pitchers into great relievers. I am from Boston and the player I miss the most from the 2013 WS team is not Ellsbury, not Lester, but Andrew Miller. A filthy left-hander who has been mowing people down like clockwork. Wish we still had him.
Yeah.. Was hoping they approached him with a LT deal after 2013 when he was hurt, but instead they went as far towards arbitration as exchanging figures before settling.
They made a mistake letting that “fix” getting away.
Everyone talked about how 4yr/$36MM was a lot for a reliever who hadn’t closed before. Well now it is looking like a steal for the Yankees. As I said to my friends prior, if Miller at worst becomes a left-handed specialist then where’s the risk?
Miller was done for the year in July. That’s like saying the person you miss the most from the 04 WS team is Nomar.
I’d say Volquez is exhibit A. He was designated for assignment the year before.
Despite his impending qualifying offer tag and poor 2015 season, Jeff Samardzija will most certainly receive a free agent offer of at least 5yrs/$75M from some MLB team this off-season.
Matt Wieters to me seems to be an ideal candidate to take the QO, but I can’t imagine you hire Boras if that’s your plan.
I think a team like the mariners would be a great fit for Wieters.
I do to, tho one question.. Do they, or the ChiSox have the 10th and final protected draft pick? I wouldn’t give up the 11th pick in the draft for Weiters. Boras client, he doesn’t get the deal he wants and will refuse the QO (he’ll get one) Boras will shop around for a 1y deal rather than take any what Boras considers sub market (to him) LT deal and no way you give up the 11th pick for a 1y deal.
White Sox have 10th spot, Mariners have 11th.
Ssmartja has been known and heard on several instances regretting leaving the Cubs. He needs to shed his selfish attitude
Based on the Boras factor, I think it would be a mistake to let Wieters walk away without a qualifying offer. If Morales walked away from one, Wieters certainly does also.
But look at how that turned out for the Boras clients Morales and Stephen Drew. It makes you wonder if Weiters will not like to be the third person to decline an QO and get stuck in limbo.
And Drew, much like Weiters, plays a premiere position – and Drew had considerably his best year when he declined his QO.
I cannot possibly imagine how anybody would think Wieters would accept a QO. Wieters is the only top 10 starting catcher hitting the open market. He has two gold gloves to his credit, a reputation for being a great handler of a pitching staff and doesn’t turn 30 until next May. Like others have said previously, if a guy like Kendrys Morales turns down the QO you should have zero expectations that Wieters accepts one.
I would be sort of surprised if the Mets didn’t QO Murph. Even not considering his postseason heroics, I don’t see him accepting the QO, so I’m not sure why they wouldn’t offer it to him. Even if he did accept it, they’d get an approximately 2 WAR player for $16MM who can fill in at 3B or even 1B in a pinch. Considering Wright’s injury situation, Murphy seems like a perfect fit.
And if he doesn’t accept it, you get a first rounder because someone out there will sign him. Seems like a no-brainer to me.
They definitely need murphy back. Im not a fan of WAR but the lowest hes batted in the last 5 years is .281 and for a 2nd basemen thats insane. Very underrated player.
Always been able to hit, but he has turned a corner with regard to leadership and performance under pressure. A lot of Mets have learned to handle pressure much better. TC for manager of the year! Everybody knew Joe was going to win.
Yep. He even started this season off in a huge slump (largely caused by BABIP, but as late as May 6th, he had a sub-.600 OPS) and still finished with a 113 OPS+. Say what you will about his defense (imo, he’s adequate enough at second or third or even first), but you shouldn’t throw away that kind of offensive product from second base.
I love Murphy. But he’s not 30x better than Wilmer Flores or Dilson Herrera. The QO is about 30x the minimum salary. It doesn’t make sense for the Mets to extend Murphy but it makes all the sense in the world to give him a QO. I like Murphy tons but 2B is the Mets’ deepest position right now.
Yeah, I don’t think the Mets should extend him, either. QO is where it’s at for the Mets. However, if it were 4/$50MM, I’d certainly consider it. He’ll get more elsewhere, I’m sure.
He’s better than Sandoval was when he hit free agency and not likely to decline like Panda due to poor conditioning. I think a team would get a steal at 5/60 for him.
Absolutely. Even a 4/$50 million is very doable for him.
It really is amazing how players always seem to have their best seasons during opt out or pending free agent seasons.
It really WOULD be amazing if that was anywhere near true. A quick scan says that of the 15 hitters with the biggest jump in WAR this year, TWO are free agents (Davis & Cespedes). Of the pitchers, it’s two (Greinke and Happ). MANY more of the FAs this year had their production drop significantly than had their production go up.
Well, I guess that means there is no Greinke to Boston.
If Wieters does not get a QO and is willing to rebuild value on a one-year deal (Boras clients have done it in the past), he makes a lot of sense for the White Sox. If he rebounds and the Sox are out of it in June/July, can flip him.
What surprises me is the amount of players who need to rebuild their value yet seem willing to decline a QO. I have not seen any player snag a better one-year deal that the QO’s 1yr/$16MM.
Do players leave thinking a better coaching staff is the solution to their woes?
Regardless of rebuilding value, there are a lot of players (agents) who overvalue their contribution. There have been a lot of veterans in recent years that end up waiting for a multi-year contract that doesn’t happen. Then they start the season late and are lucky if they can keep their skills sharp until they play again. It has turned out horribly for a few.
Famously Kendrys Morales and Stephen Drew for the late starts. You could also include Rafael Soriano too (though he was waiting for a closer / big-money role).
Fister should take a QO if he gets one
Anderson presents a unique situation with the QO. Given the massive injury risks, it’s hard to imagine any team giving him more than 3 years guaranteed, and even that would likely be too long for some clubs’ taste unless it’s at a significant AAV discount and/or includes a Lackey clause. That really puts a cap on the total guaranteed $ he might get. Giving up a pick for a guy you expect to have on the major league roster for 4-6 years is one thing, but for a guy you only think you’ll want for two is a different story entirely.
If Anderson takes the QO and is able to stay healthy and be a solid #4 or 5 starter, he’ll position himself for a 3-yr deal in ’17. I agree that he’s too great a risk for a 3-yr deal now.
Hasn’t Daniel Murphy been one of the big heroes for the Mets in the playoffs? If he keeps that up and helps win them the World Series the Mets would be crazy to let him go. Maybe they could give him less money per year over more years. All teams need players like Murphy in the playoffs.