The 2015-16 free agent season’s qualifying offer value has been set at $15.8MM, according to a tweet from Eric Fisher of the Sports Business Journal. That represents an increase, of course, but the rise isn’t nearly as great as it has been in the past.
The QO system used a $13.3MM number in its first year, which increased to $14.1MM and then to $15.3MM last fall. The qualifying offer value is determined by averaging the 125 contracts leaguewide that have the highest average annual values.
Here’s a quick refresher on how the qualifying offer system works: Teams can offer their departing free agents a one-year deal, at the established price tag, within five days of the conclusion of the World Series. Over the next seven days, players who receive the offer are allowed to talk with other teams and decide whether to take the single-season pact. If they reject it, then draft implications attach: their former team stands to gain a compensation pick in the following year’s draft, while a new signing team must give up their highest non-protected draft choice.
There are plenty of other elements of the system, of course, and you can check out this old-but-good overview for more. For an understanding of why the qualifying offer matters so much, read this great explanation of why “avoiding the qualifying offer” is so important for a free agent’s value.
Players traded in mid-season are not eligible to receive a qualifying offer. So, for example, the Royals can make a qualifying offer to Alex Gordon but cannot extend one to Johnny Cueto or Ben Zobrist.
And remember: we still have yet to see a player accept a qualifying offer. While several QO-declining players have seemingly experienced market impacts after being saddled with draft compensation, the opportunity to test the open market in search of a multi-year pact has thus far proved compelling.
Wieters, Davis, Kendrick, Murphy, Desmond, Gordon, Upton, Fowler, Span, Heyward, Brett Anderson, Chen, Gallardo, Grienke, Iwakuma, Ian Kennedy, Lackey, Shark, and Zimmermann could all potential get a QO, and all would probably reject.
Some of them like Lackey and Desmond should not reject
Desmond averaged 3.3 WAR per season for the last 4 years. He should be able to get a 4/60M+ deal.
Lackey can get a 2/26ish deal. He’ll reject.
We have this discussion every year.
I am a bit more bullish on both players than Brixton, but agree with his premise.
On that list, I think Span might be the closest call to receive one b/c of his injuries. But I still think he’d reject it.
As sleepers throw in Buehrle (despite his poor finish and retirement stuff), Estrada (3.6 bWAR, good position for long term deal, plus they’d probably be happy to have him on a one-year), Cabrera (they can’t afford to pay him that but might be confident he’d turn it down, which would seem unlikely given his experience last year, though maybe they’d feel they could trade him on a one-year deal), O’Day (by far the most productive reliever on the market with 2.4 bWAR the past four years; I don’t see how many people think he will get 3/18 or less, I see him more like 3/27-4/36; however Baltimore is very cheap), and my super deep sleeper Jimmy Rollins. The Dodgers have an essentially unlimited payroll, there’s got to be at least like a 20% chance he’d reject it hoping for a Cuddyer-like deal and the Dodgers wouldn’t want to leave that potential pick on the table, and even if he accepted they could shop him with $10m attached and get a couple of low-end prospects. (Assuming you can trade a player soon after he accepts the QO, I don’t know the rule on that.) Basically I don’t see the Dodgers leaving value on the table, even if it will likely cost them a lot. Another one I could see is Fister. Sure he had an awful year but even with that he has averaged 3 bWAR over the last four years. They will lose Zimmermann’s 200 IP and may well not want to give out another long term deal to a pitcher to fill out the rotation. With the managerial change and the potential for a huge role, they think Fister could have his bounce back with them rather than someone else. If he has a typical season he’d be a huge bargain at 1/16. And he might just reject to get out of there in which case they’d get the pick.
Out of these guys I’d predict Estrada, Buerhle, Fister, and Rollins to get them, and O’Day should but won’t. I also don’t think Murphy will get one because the Mets are cheap and they want to be sure to leave payroll space to make a run at Cespides. I think that he’d refuse, possibly to his detriment, but I think like the O’s they are just too cheap for a borderline case.
$15.8 million for 1 year of O’Day. Seriously, are you his agent? You are willing to pay O’Day 50% more than the next highest paid reliever this year in baseball not named Papelbon, and his contract at $13 million is insane. It would be prudent for the Orioles to not offer O’Day a QO and it has nothing to do with being cheap.
Some fringe players should take the QO and then takeout insurance in case of injury.
Teams value picks too highly, and players with a QO pay as much as 10 million by way of reduced salary. By taking the QO, they are less likely to get another one the next year. If they get hurt, well, they collect on insurance
What fringe players are you referring to?
The only one who you could justify that type of risk is maybe Samardzija.
Throw weiters in as possible taker of the QO. Only thing standing in his way is boras.
Boras, and the fact that Boras could well get him a four-year free agent contract.
Buying insurance would be very expensive and cost the player even more $$
I’m not exactly sure what kind of insurance is available to non-elite players, but it’s not going to be full value and it will cost money. Expected earning power takes a hit when you push it a year further out and factor in interim risk.
Not to say it isn’t something to consider, but I think this would likely still be less optimal.
One problem with accepting the QO is that you just get stuck with another one the following year. Thats why nobody takes it. A player’s number one priority is guaranteed $$. A 3 year $32 MM deal is more attractive than signing the QO to a guy like Kennedy or Anderson. If you had a rule or could negotiate a clause that says you can only be offered one QO you might see someone take it.
Nobody takes it because human beings don’t want to work on one year deals, they want security. You don’t take a 1 year 15M dollar contract knowing you could get hurt and never play again when you can get a multiyear contract via FA.
Lackey deserves more than a QO from Cards. He should get a 3 or 4 year deal at the least,.
He is pretty old. He might be able to get a 3 year deal, but I think he is more likely in line for a 2 year one. The Cardinals also have a lot of starting pitchers to replace him too if they so choose. I’m not too sure if they go after him on a long term deal, but giving him a QO is a no-brainer.
Tigers are in an interesting position with a protected pick. They are almost compelled to sign a QO player to take advantage of being in the bottom 10.
Which pitcher will be a bargain because of the QO? That is probably who the Tigers should go after.
Grienke or Zimmermann probably. Samardzija possibly if he ends up getting a QO and they think they can fix him on a cheap, long term deal.
Samardzija is a fit with the Tigers. What would get him to sign? 5/80? I think that about what they gave Sanchez. Seems a decent comparable.
That sounds reasonable to me, perhaps maybe a bit too high. I think it all comes down to what Samardzija wants to do though. He might choose to take a one-year deal instead in order to rebuild his value. If he is looking for a one year deal instead, and chooses to decline the QO, then I think the Tigers should pass on him. Zimmermann would probably be the best fit then. I don’t think the market is going to develop for him like the other #1 pitchers available. Having said that, I think it would be silly to see Samardzija decline a 5/80MM offer, but it is possible that he might.