The Orioles entered the season with a number of important impending free agents. We know Chris Davis will receive a $15.8MM qualifying offer, but it’s less of a certainty with the club’s other two candidates. Wei-Yin Chen is also expected to receive and reject a qualifying offer. As we’ve heard multiple times, most recently from CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman, the team has yet to decide what to do with Matt Wieters.
Wieters will be entering his age 30 season after a disappointing 2015 campaign. He started 2015 on the disabled list while recovering from Tommy John surgery. While there was an expectation that he could make the Opening Day roster, he was actually held out until June 5. The club decided to wait until he could start multiple days in a row behind the plate before activating him.
He was in the midst of a breakout in 2014 when he went down with the injury. While his .267/.319/.422 line over 282 plate appearances is a big step back from 2014, it’s almost a perfect replication of his career numbers (.258/.320/.423). The intervening injury does make it difficult to judge who Wieters is as an offensive player. His strikeout rate (23.8% K%) actually increased dramatically – five percent higher than his career norm. It’s possible that a normal offseason could restore him to his typical whiff rates. That means more balls in play and more hits.
Catcher defense has become an increasingly important measure. Wieters draws mixed reviews in this theater of work. His catcher framing from StatCorner is largely discouraging. He was worth negative eight runs in part-time work this year. In his last full season, 2013, he graded out at negative 11 runs. On a positive note, he’s good at blocking pitches and has caught roughly one-third of base runners over his career. That includes eight of 26 attempts this season (30.7%).
The word from Heyman is that the Orioles will extend a qualifying offer only if they’re convinced he won’t take it. In other words, they aren’t comfortable committing $15.8MM to Wieters next season. The club does work under fairly tight budget constraints and may be able to make a bigger upgrade elsewhere with that money. MLBTR’s Steve Adams “can’t imagine” the Scott Boras client would accept, but there are probably a few feasible circumstances where it could make sense.
For example, any physical problem that could negatively affect his ability to sign a long term contract might provide impetus to take a qualifying offer. Teams are always wary of losing an early draft pick. If they’re concerned about his health, Wieters could wind up getting the Nelson Cruz treatment. To be clear, there are no reports that Wieters is dealing with an injury, it’s just one potential scenario under which he may accept a qualifying offer.
If we assume he’s healthy, it does seem like Wieters should merit a sizable multi-year contract. That’s including a declined qualifying offer. There aren’t any perfect recent comps, but I do see Wieters as closer to Russell Martin (signed last offseason for five-years, $82MM) than Jarrod Saltalamacchia (signed after 2013 season for three-years, $21MM). Wieters may merit a similar annual value to Martin (about $16MM) over fewer guaranteed season. Unless we’re seriously overestimating his market, it should be a no-brainer for Wieters to decline the qualifying offer.
Let’s turn to the poll. We have a player who looks like a lock to decline a qualifying offer, but the club is putting out indications that they’re worried he’ll accept it. Do they know something we don’t?
Yes. Boras isn’t going to be the first guy to accept a QO, especially for a relatively young catcher with some pop and a cannon arm. Worst-case scenario is you get Wieters back for one year at near market price. Big whoop, don’t let a draft pick slip away.
Unless the Orioles have some information about his long-term health that we don’t know. In which case, no QO, let him go.
In my opinion, no. He didn’t show the numbers to make 15 million next year.
Thats not necessarily how to judge a QO.
Cuddyer for example rejected a 1/15M in order to take 2/22M.
Wieters could be looking at a 4/36Mish deal, or something in that neighborhood.
With that said, I would give him one for the sole purpose that hes the only true everyday catcher on the FA market, meaning the bidding could be pretty high from teams in need of a catcher. To be completely honest, whos the 2nd best catcher on the FA market next year? 39 year old AJ Pierzynski, Navarro who only caught ~35 games this year, or Alex Avila who hit .191?
Like I said. That just my opinion. Maybe it is good to judge numbers. Probably not. Maybe they should give it to him since nobody really accepts the qualifying offer
Its based off risks and rewards. Theres little chance of him taking the offer and everyone knows it. If he did, 15 million is not the worst thing on a one year deal for a young starting catcher with pop.
The Orioles don’t even need Wieters. They can probably get similar production at this point between Caleb Joseph and Steve Clevenger for cheap. I would only offer Wieters a qualifying offer if they had a gentleman’s agreement that he wouldn’t take the offer.
Except a QO would only hurt his free agent market. There’s no reason for Wieters to assure the Orioles that he wouldn’t take it. If anything, he’s better off indicating that he would consider it, even if wasn’t.
I can’t disagree more regarding his market value. A QO is not going to affect the market for the lone starting catcher hitting the open market. If you want/need a #1 catcher and he’s the only one out there, a QO won’t factor into your decision-making process as a team. You rarely make trades for #1 catchers and if you need one, he’s likely to be your only option this offseason.
I agree that his market would still be quite strong, and I fully expect him to decline if offered. My only point was that he wouldn’t get any potential benefit from a QO, and has no incentive to engage in a “gentlemen’s agreement’
Why would he ever say that?
All the bottom ten teams need a good catcher and their pick is protected. Wieters could easily end up in Seattle or Boston, or Atlanta.
Losing a draft pick won’t be an issue.
Neither Seattle nor Boston have protected picks.
Yup. Just noticed. Seattle picks 11 and Boston 13.
No matter. Wieters will end up in Atlanta.
And it’s “…has a protected pick.”
Yeah, Boston doesn’t have enough catchers already…
Boston has three starting catchers including one who last spring was the number one catching prospect.
Weiters had back-to-back years of health problems and lack of production. I would through out the QO because I doubt Weiters will accept it, but he really should accept it in order to rebuild his value in a city he knows.
I think his non-injured ceiling shows he’s definitely worth $15M. If he’s back, he should easily be worth that. If they aren’t in contention they can also trade him at the deadline and get something back for him that way. It’s not a huge gamble and would appease the fanbase a little if they lose Crush.
Is there any team that is a more likely destination than Atlanta?
If he didn’t hire Boras it would be a bit tougher because he ain’t going to take it. But suppose he did take it. Big deal. Wieters has a good healthy year and he’d be well worth it at a premium position like C.