This year’s qualifying offer will be set at $15.8MM for one year, which is a hefty sum even considering the old adage that “there’s no such thing as a bad one-year deal.” As we’ve seen in the past three seasons since the QO was instituted, however, no player has actually accepted such an offer, instead preferring to seek out a multi-year free agent deal. This has led to issues for some free agents, as having draft pick compensation attached to their services has greatly diminished their markets and delayed their signings, in some cases (as with Kendrys Morales or Stephen Drew) into the actual next season itself.
With this all in mind, the qualifying offer is still an interesting wrinkle for mid-tier free agents like Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy. He’ll hit the open market on the heels of a .281/.322/.449 line and 14 homers over 538 plate appearances, and the 2.5 fWAR generated gives him 12.2 fWAR since the start of the 2011 season. That’s a pretty nice total for a middle infielder, especially given the lack of depth in the second and third base free agent market.
So in theory, Murphy should be set up for a nice payday this offseason. After speaking to various executives and agents, Joel Sherman of the New York Post hears that Murphy could be in line for a three-year deal in the $30-$40MM range, though an AL team may be his best fit so his shaky defense could be offset by some DH at-bats. Murphy will turn 31 in April so it’s pretty unlikely that he would pass up what could be his only chance at a major multi-year contract by accepting one-year QO to return to New York.
Sherman outlines why the Mets should make Murphy a qualifying offer, as while he isn’t an elite player, he’s not a bad player to get back in the fold should he accept the $15.8MM. Letting him hit free agency without the QO attached would not just cost the Mets a draft pick, but it would be yet another problem caused by the team’s limited budget. Passing up a first-rounder just based on a slight chance Murphy could accept the QO seems like an unnecessarily cautious move.
This all being said, if payroll is still an issue for the Mets, then they have better ways of spending $15.8MM, especially when Dilson Herrera may be waiting in the wings to take over second base. If Herrera isn’t ready for an everyday role yet, a platoon of Herrera and a lower-cost veteran could replace Murphy’s 2.5 fWAR (perhaps based on defense rather than hitting) at a fraction of the price. The Mets have a number of free agents so quite a bit of money will be coming off the books, yet keeping in mind their budget, every dollar may count if the club plans to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes or make a play for a similarly top-tier free agent.
I’d like to add another possible scenario for the Mets. If Murphy did happen to accept the qualifying offer, they could trade him. New York might not want Murphy on a one-year, $15.8MM deal but I suspect several other teams would.
How do you think the Mets should handle Murphy this offseason? (MLBTR app users can weigh in here)
Would the Mets be able to trade Murphy prior to the June date before which clubs cannot trade newly signed FAs that were not retained via QO?
I think so, because I think it can be treated as a contract extension, rather than a new FA contract
It would definitely hurt his free agent value, but it’s unlikely he would accept it regardless. No one wants to be the first guy to do it. I could see him accepting if he was entering into the twilight of his career, and was only interested in playing one more season, but that is not Murphy’s situation.
Absolutely. Any free agent who could possibly get a $40m contract is worth a QO. And it’s already been indicated that he’s unlikely to take it so the Mets really have nothing to lose. Even if draft pick compensation hurts his value so much that no one signs him in the offseason the Mets aren’t any worse off than they would have been had they not offered him a QO.
Are they committed to Dilson Herrera at 2B in 2016?
Can give an example of why dangerous to offer him a QO:
Stephen Drew.. Murphy hasn’t got close to the glove Drew does and the bat is about the same as Drew’s was coming out of the 2013 season when Boston made the QO and Drew/Boras declined. Drew’s market evaporated. Why would Murphy find a better market with a worse glove at 2b and nearly equal bat? Possible potential to earn more via LT deal? That goes away if nobody wants to lose the pick, as happened with Drew.
I give odds of Wieters having one offered the QO moreso, catching (top flight) is tougher to find than is what Murphy is.
It’s a decent comparison, but Murphy’s bat is far more consistent than Drew’s was and Murphy does not have the injury history that Drew did. That said, Drew’s defense is much better.
I’d give him a QO if I were the Mets even though Herrera is probably ready to take over at 2B. If he miraculously accepts it, you can go with Murphy as the main 2B with Herrera as the backup and Murphy filling in for Wright and Duda if/when injuries occur.
Markakis money on the market without a QO;
with one 3/24-27
I was interested in this seeming ability to sign and trade a player which is normally a forbidden practice in baseball.
The QO can only offered after the player’s contract expires and the Quiet Period begins on the day after the last game of the World Series. The player is a free agent at that time who may discuss contracts with everyone but only sign a contract with his former club.
The language of the CBA regarding the restriction on a trade prior to June 16 says “Any Club signing a contract with a Player under this Section B after the expiration of the Quiet Period . . .” That implicitly infers that accepting the qualifying offer is the same as a contract extension for trade purposes.
A player like Murphy who will likely be worth the same 3 year 30-40 M next off season as well as this could well take the QO and net himself as additional $5.8M and then become a FA and effectively add another year at 10-13M to his major league career.
For Murphy taking the QO makes a lot of sense
I’m still not sold on durability of Wright so I say give Murphy 30-40 million 3 year contract till weights durability is assured or his replacement is in place. Even then I might consider trading Duda and using Murphy at first till the pick on the minors is ready. Anyone else seeing Turner as a right handed Murphy at the plate. That could have been a fun combo.