Heading into the year, it looked like the Nationals would have four fairly obvious qualifying offer recipients: Jordan Zimmermann, Ian Desmond, Doug Fister, and Denard Span. It’s reflective of the team’s overall struggles that only the first of these is a complete slam dunk to receive one now. Despite his forgettable year, Desmond still seems fully worthy as well. But it’s hard to see Fister getting the offer, as $15.8MM for one year probably outstrips his current value on the market.
So what about Span? The center fielder delivered exactly what the Nationals hoped for when they shipped out Alex Meyer to acquire him from the Twins before the 2013 season. He was solid in his first season in D.C. and excellent in 2014, when he slashed .302/.355/.416 and swiped 31 bags over 668 plate appearances. Defensive metrics soured on him somewhat in the second of those campaigns, but he provided outstanding value on his reasonably-priced contract.
This year was more of the same — .301/.365/.431 — but with one glaring exception: Span made only 275 trips to the batter’s box. He recovered quickly enough from offseason sports hernia surgery, missing only about two weeks to start the year. But back and abdominal issues cropped up in the middle of the year, giving way to hip problems, and a late comeback bid proved fleeting. The 31-year-old underwent a hip procedure, ending his season.
The first issue, then, is simply one of health. It’s unclear exactly what kind of recovery timeline should be expected, though certainly we’ve heard no indication that he won’t be ready for the spring. And Span himself recently tweeted that his recovery is progressing well. Regardless of the immediate prognosis, though, there’s some legitimate concern here. The fact that Span struggled with concussions earlier in his career does not help the situation.
While questions about Span’s ability to stay on the field in 2016 do limit his immediate value, though, the bulk of that concern lies in his long-term outlook for teams weighing a multi-year deal. A qualifying offer, of course, only represents a one-year commitment (if accepted), which limits the risk.
True, Span’s health will impact the market assessment that he and his representatives would make in weighing a qualifying offer — i.e., if they don’t foresee an attractive multi-year deal, the QO becomes more attractive. But so long as he remains on track for a more-or-less full 2016 season, Span still seems like an excellent candidate to land a rather high-dollar, multi-year deal in free agency. He and Dexter Fowler arguably represent the only everyday regular center fielders on the market, with Colby Rasmus and Austin Jackson making up their competition.
There’s an argument to be made, then, that the Nats have little risk in extending the QO. There’s no reason not to pick up a draft pick if he’s destined to decline. And we’ve yet to see a single player accept one — even the aging Michael Cuddyer, who declined his offer last year from the Rockies despite coming off of a similarly injury-plagued season. Even if Span did take the $15.8MM, moreover, that might not be a bad result for Washington. Jayson Werth struggled with injuries of his own last year, and Michael Taylor — the presumptive replacement in center — showed both promise and a proclivity to strike out. Both hit from the right side, unlike Span. A left-handed outfielder capable of playing center is a clear target for the Nats, and keeping Span on a one-year commitment (even at that rate) would meet that need and then some. Bringing Taylor on slowly, holding down his arbitration earning power, and limiting the wear and tear on Werth would be nice side benefits.
Of course, there’s a counter-argument to be made here, too. The Nationals have had their share of injury issues over the last several years, and have not always managed to cope when key players went down. And some might disagree that Span would likely turn down the offer; there’s little chance he’ll reach that guarantee over multiple years, and it’s hard to predict how his market would play out — especially if he’s saddled with draft compensation. Is it too great a risk to the club to dangle that much money to an arguably injury-prone player?
Let’s put this one to an up-or-down vote:
I think qualifying offers should happen more often. Even if they get accepted, you can still trade the guy at the deadline and get SOME kind of value for him. If they don’t rebound, then it is just a one year sunk cost not a long term liability. I’m not saying the backup middle infielder should get a $15 million dollar offer, but if there is a question at all, then make the offer. Until we start seeing multiple players accept offers, which I doubt will ever happen, the potential gain far outweighs the potential loss.
The risk is they have to pay Span 15.8 MM next season, 6 MM more than they paid him in 2015. That is a lot of money for a nationals team that is reaching the limit of their payroll and had to deffer a significant portion Scherzer’s contract.
They are clearing a lot of salary this year, so there’s room to add that kind of contract, and it doesn’t really matter what he made last year. Also, fwiw, my view is that the Scherzer deferral is more about the time value of money than specific payroll constraints.
But it would be a lot of scratch for one year of Denard, and they might prefer to try to find a slightly less-good option for a lot less. That’s the risk they’d face, though it is arguably reasonable to take it on — depending upon odds of his accepting. (I think they are low, personally.)
Cuddyer has repeatedly said that he would have accepted the QO if the Mets didn’t make him the offer before his acceptance window closed. Unless Span gets a similarly foolish offer, he should accept if offered.
Right, but the existence of that early market preview (in the QO consideration window) is yet another reason that borderline players will feel good about taking the risk on the market. It actually provides an opportunity for teams to get a deal by pre-shopping, or at least allows the player a chance to get some comfort before deciding.
I’m curious: do you really think that kind of offer (2/21 + sacrifice of draft pick) to Span would be foolish? I think he’ll do better than that.
Span hit .300 and is one of the few true leadoff hitters left in the game. he takes walks and very rarely strikes out. for 1 year its a steal. length if contract is more important than $$. they still have a good roster and a chance so why give him away for nothing? if he declines it they get a pick. not offering it is a dumb move in my opinion.
the nationals print $$ and not putting good team around harper and scherzer is a waste of even more money you paid them:
Span
Rendon
Harper
Werth
Zimmerman
Taylor
Wieters ( My guess they will sign him)
Escobar
Trea Turner
Scherzer
Gonzalez
Strasburg
Ross
Soren
This is not a team you whine over $15,8 for one year of an established leadoff hitter. He will get 3 years and $45 on the market from the Angels or Tigers.
If he leaves take the pick, first round picks are golden these days and worth $6MM alone if they pan out.
Agee mostly but storen will be traded, I have a weird feeling Escobar will too, and giolito should be up by June. One splashy addition is a given for the Nats (or “Washington as pfr would call them) and you have to assume it would be on offense, maybe an RBI guy.
The poll re Span’s QO is running about 50/50. Reckon that’s the best answer. If Span receives/accepts a QO, he and Rendon *could* return to the hot 1-2 hitters of 2014. OTOH (the other 50%) the Nats were decimated at times by injuries so no QO for Span and Rendon is traded.
I would have liked to say yes on span but that is a lot of money to offer a player who may not be able to man center field. That is a worst case scenario but even if he plays left with taylor in center i am still concerned for spans base stealing ability. I would still try to sign span but i think i would offer him a 2-3 year deal with some incentives as opposed to the qualifying offer.
To me this is a slam dunk yes for the Nationals. Span has averaged between 3.3 (bWAR) and 3.6 (fWAR) over the previous three seasons – and despite injuries put up 1.4 fWAR (0.8 bWAR) in 2015 in just 61 games, and given the estimated cost/WAR as between $6-7M a season, there’s actually every chance that the Nationals would get surplus value from Span were he to sign a QO. Straight up.
And that’s putting aside that Span checks several “need” boxes for the Nats (LH bat/leadoff/OF). An outfield of Werth/Span/Harper with Michael Taylor as the 4th OF and MdD as the 5th is a lot better than Werth/Taylor Harper with MdD as the 4th OF and Clint Robinson as the #5. Certainly Span is close enough in value that the adage “there’s no such thing as a one year overpay” kicks in. And if he plays well, the Nats could easily extend a QO next year. There’s a lot more upside than downside to extending the QO.
And there’s a ton of risk for Span in accepting a QO. Right now he’s still likely to get a 4/$40M type of deal. He turns 32 in the Spring. A four year deal for a player’s 32-35 seasons is a lot easier to stomach than from 33-36. Accepting a QO means that all of the risk of injury or poor performance are on Span’s side, not on the Nationals side. Span likely knows this, too; he switched agents to Scott Boras a few weeks ago. That tells me he’s going, QO or no.