While many are anticipating that the Orioles will have difficulty in retaining their free agents, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com cautions against simply dismissing the possibility that Baltimore can find a way to retain some combination of Wei-Yin Chen, Chris Davis, Matt Wieters and Darren O’Day. Of the four, Kubatko considers Chen the least likely to return, but he notes that the O’s had an organizational meeting last Friday which included managing partner Peter Angelos. One source later termed the meeting “productive” when speaking to Kubatko. The MASN scribe also hears from a source that Angelos wants to not only re-sign Chen but also is showing a willingness to add a free agent starter beyond the longtime Baltimore lefty. Of course, Kubatko also points out the possibility that Chen’s demotion to Class-A ball this season — a more or less procedural move that bought the Orioles some time to sort out a roster crunch — strained the relationship between player and team.
From my own vantage point, history hasn’t shown that the Orioles would be willing to spend at the necessary levels to sign Chen. A four-year deal is almost certainly there for him this winter, and he has a case for a fifth season at an annual rate in excess of the $12.5MM on Ubaldo Jimenez’s four-year deal with Baltimore. As Kubtako notes, Baltimore “shocked” many in the industry with that Jimenez contract; either a five-year deal or a significantly larger four-year pact for Chen strikes me as unlikely.
A few more items pertaining to the AL East…
- Kubatko’s colleague, Steve Melewski, writes that fans who feel the Orioles should try Zach Britton back in the rotation are misguided. Britton would be unable to jump from about 70 innings per season to the 175 to 200 necessary out of the rotation, and more importantly, he’d almost certainly be less effective in the rotation. Moving to a starting role would make it more difficult for Britton to hold his velocity, and hitters would benefit from second and third looks at his incredible sinker. He’d also need to throw more secondary pitches than he presently does, and the move would further weaken a bullpen that will already be an area of need for Baltimore this winter.
- Daniel Murphy signing with the Yankees is an unlikely scenario but can’t be completely ruled out, writes Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. Second base is the Yankees’ most uncertain position on the diamond at present, and while many believe Rob Refsnyder will get a long look next year, Murphy’s swing fits Yankee Stadium well. The Yankees are in the midst of their pro scouting meetings and beginning to plot a course for the offseason, so Murphy’s name figures to at least be mentioned. Feinsand spoke to a pair of sources that estimated Murphy can land a deal similar to Chase Headley’s four-year, $52MM contract on the heels of a big postseason performance.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post looks back on the trade that sent R.A. Dickey, Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas to the Blue Jays in exchange for Travis d’Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard, John Buck and Wuilmer Becerra. While there were other pieces in the trade, the core of the trade — Dickey for Syndergaard/d’Arnaud — looks excellent for the Mets, in hindsight. Sherman spoke with Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos, who explained the the team had a win-now approach back in that 2012 offseason, with the goal of maximizing the prime years of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Both d’Arnaud and Syndergaard were years from contributing, and Toronto felt it could get four years of control of a win-now pitcher to help its near-term playoff hopes. The Jays also talked to the Rays about James Shields and had interest in free agent Anibal Sanchez at the time, but Tampa Bay didn’t want to move Shields within the division and Sanchez preferred Detroit to Toronto, Sherman adds.
User 4245925809
For solid rotation arms who will provide value to the dollar thos offseason? I’ll take both Chen and Iwakuma over any of the other guys, including Price, Cueto and Zimmerman. those 2 more than likely won’t bust 50-60m total and should give solid performance over no more than 3.. Tops at a 4y deal and 12-15m annually, where those other guys will be expecting 25m+ over 5-7 seasons. Wouldn’t shock me to see Iwakuma, especially so put up better numbers than a couple of them.
mrnatewalter
I do think that you’ll see the bigger impact coming from the middle rotation guys on the market over the top dogs, because I think you’ll see some teams that already have an ace going for them to try and round out their rotation (Giants, Cubs, Mariners, Yankees, etc.).
There’s obviously much less risk to signing a guy like Chen for $12-16M AAV over Price for $27-32M AAV. I still think Price has more upside than those middle rotation guys, but I’ll agree with you, I don’t think it’s going to be that significant, and I wouldn’t be one bit surprised to see a guy like Iwakuma top one of the big names.
Niekro
Gallardo might be a good buy too with how he pitched against the blue jays over 3 starts. Not sure what kind of money he will be seeing though. I think Tillman should return to himself the more innings he gets with Joseph who is a better pitch framer than Wieters.
thecoffinnail
How does Joseph being a better pitch framer allow Tillman to become a better pitcher? At best Joseph might get one additional called strike an inning and that like I said is a best case scenario.
mstrchef13
Chen is such an extreme flyball pitcher, I think he is best suited away from Camden Yards and would thrive in a place like Washington or Detroit. If I’m the O’s GM (and obviously I’m not because I’d do a better job in building the team), I’d be targeting Gallardo and Leake to fill the rotation. Both are ground ball pitchers that would get the added benefit of the superb infield defense the O’s have.
kingjenrry
He could also make sense in KC, a team always looking for #3s.
ronnsnow
I think there’s a better chance the Yankees trade for Neil Walker, with one year of control over Murphy who will be looking for a 3-4 year deal.
TJECK109
I don’t see the Pirates moving Walker in the offseason. With Kang out for a period of time the team will need to keep Walker unless they find a suitable stop gap for a cheaper price.
ronnsnow
I don’t see the Pirates paying Walker $10mil+. That’s not how they do business.
TJECK109
I don’t think that’s correct at all. One year at 10mil when they signed AJ for 8mil, gave millions to sign an unknown on Kang. I think you will see Alvarez traded and possibly Melancon traded but not walker.
thecoffinnail
Bullseye. Paying a reliever the salary Melancon is going to get in arbitration is not the Pirates way. I can see them packaging Walker with Melancon and sending them to the Yankees for Refsnyder + another prospect though. Yankees get the solid 2nd baseman they need plus the additional backend bullpen arm Cashman was reportedly chasing at the deadline. Walker alone isn’t a problem for Pittsburgh. They can afford him.
kingjenrry
Kang was signed for pennies. Under $3 million AAV – $11 million over 4 years is miniscule compared to those other salaries you mention.
Niekro
If RA Dickey wins a key game 4 and the Jays win the WS does that change the view of the trade? I think people forget Dickey had just won a Cy Young when that trade was made too.
stl_cards16 2
Well, they could have Syndergaard pitching a critical game 4 instead of Dickey. It was an overpay at the time and still is. The Jays were desperate to be relevant without a clear-cut strong team in the AL East.
I don’t fault them for going for it when they had the chance, but it seemed like a big price to pay for a small (old) part of the puzzle.
Niekro
Not really at the time Syndergaard was the 83rd ranked prospect he was a nice piece no one had any idea what he would become, or he would have been drafted higher in the first round if he was such a sure fire ace. RA had just won a Cy Young as a Knuckleballer, see the guy in my avatar and namesake Knuckleballers tend to age extremely well. You can’t just say Syndergaard would be pitching in game 4 for the Blue Jays either who knows what happens to him if he came up as a rookie pitching in the AL East.
stl_cards16 2
If that’s the logic, then yes, they should trade away every pitching prospect for win-now trades
Niekro
Kind of like the Josh Donaldson trade you mean? Or the David Price trade? What’s the matter cant second guess those trades yet? The odds of one of those pitchers becoming Syndergaard is highly unlikely, which is why reviewing any trade in hindsight is dumb.
Niekro
I guess we will have to wait to hear back from you on the Tulo trade too. Hoffman was nearly a number one overall pick.
kingjenrry
Yeah, we do.
stl_cards16 2
The Dickey trade went down December of 2012. The new rankings for the 2013 season by BA and Sickels were…
TDA :#23 & #13
Thor: #54 & #22
So no, he wasn’t the #83 prospect. Everyone gad seen Syndergaard was emerging. I remember Jays fans on this very site claiming Syndergaard was untouchable.
kingjenrry
Reviewing trades in hindsight isn’t dumb; it’s kind of the point. Process is important – you’re saying trades should only be judged on process, though. You are saying we should ignore the results when judging a trade. That’s completely wrong.
stl_cards16 2
I said the trade was bad one at the time, no hindsight involved. Don’t really know where you came up with that. I said “it was an overpay then”. If you don’t believe me, go find the articles on here. The Tulo trade was okay, nothing special. The Donaldson trade was obviously great for the Jays before the ink dried.
kingjenrry
Trades occur on different timelines. The Mets wanted younger guys with a future and the Blue Jays were going “all-in”. You’re missing the point.
georgebell 2
It was a massive overpay at the time and gets worse every year. It was justified by AA due to Dickey’s salary and desperation to “win now”. AA had submitted a lesser package to Alderson and waited a week then caved in to the exorbitant price. D’arnaud and Syndergaard were known quantities at the time, don’t let the rankings fool you.
rct
@Niekro: I’m assuming that you’re neither a Jays fan or a Mets fan, because that trade has always been viewed as a massive overpay. The Mets were not going to sign him to a contract and only had one year of control left on him. His subsequent deal was negotiated during the trade talks so that Toronto would get more than one year of control. I’m bringing this up because it weakens the Mets’ side of the trade. Toronto was dealing from a position of power. Also, while it’s true that the Mets traded a CY winner, him being a knuckleballer is not a selling feature. They may age well, but they’re also extremely volatile.
The fact that Alderson got not one, but two highly-touted prospects for Dickey was seen at the time as an overpay. I love Dickey, and he’s given Toronto solid innings, but it’s still viewed as a huge overpay. If Dickey ‘wins a key game 4 and the Jays win the WS’, great. Good for Toronto. But it won’t change the way that trade was and is viewed.
kingjenrry
No, it wouldn’t. Nobody has forgotten that Dickey had just won a Cy Young because that’s the explanation for the massive haul the Mets got.
Niekro
83rd ranked prospect and a catcher is not a massive haul for a Cy Young award winning pitcher. Daniel Norris was a highly regarded pitching prospect who went for a half a year rental. A massive haul would be what the Phillies got for Hamels.
User 4245925809
Not really. That was a consolation prize. The massive haul was what Amaro was attempting to extort from Boston.
Philly didn’t still manage to grab 1 sure fire kid out of texas in that supposed massive haul from texas, though they did get several really nice kids. He was attempting to get 1 sure fire kid (Betts or Swihart) out of Boston, along with a couple of likewise top kids also.
There is several types of massive hauls.
stymeedone
The rumors of what he was asking from Boston were just that: rumors. No one knows what the actual asking price was. Boston never got their consolation prize. They never traded for a different pitcher. They went without. What the Phillies got was a massive haul. It was July. Boston talks started in off-season thru the spring training.
stl_cards16 2
You can’t cite the pre-season 2012 rankings for a trade that happened in December after that year. Syndergaard had improved his stock quite a bit. And that catcher. …was also a universal top 30 prospect.
kingjenrry
The best catching prospect in baseball, one of the top pitching prospect in baseball, and a lottery ticket power-hitting RF for a late-30s knuckleballer with 2.5 good seasons over his career was absolutely a massive haul. I’m as big a Dickey fan as you’ll find and there’s no way to call that trade anything other than a massive overpay.
rmullig2
Murphy’s swing doesn’t fit Yankee Stadium better than any other ballpark. He sprays the ball all over the field. Yankee Stadium caters to dead pull hitters. More nonsense from Sherman.
thecoffinnail
I think Sherman says that every left handed batter has a swing that is a perfect fit for Yankee stadium.