After a 68-94 season, new Brewers GM David Stearns and newly minted assistant GM Matt Arnold (formerly of the Rays) will be tasked with continuing the team’s rebuild.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Ryan Braun, OF: $99MM through 2020 (plus 2021 mutual option)
- Matt Garza, SP: $25MM through 2017 (plus 2018 club/vesting option)
- Francisco Rodriguez, CL: $9.5MM through 2016 (plus 2017 club option)
- Jonathan Lucroy, C: $4.25MM through 2016 (plus 2017 club option)
- Martin Maldonado, C: $1.1MM though 2016
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)
- Cesar Jimenez, RP (3.083) – $1.0MM
- Jean Segura, SS (3.065) – $3.2MM
- Wily Peralta, SP (3.033) – $2.8MM
- Will Smith, RP (2.155) – $1.2MM
- Non-tender candidate: Jimenez
Contract Options
- Adam Lind, 1B: $8MM with $500K buyout
Free Agents
Stearns, who the Brewers hired last month, is 30, has an Ivy League background and was previously an assistant GM with the analytically-savvy Astros, so it certainly seems like he’ll be a new-school GM. And if he were to trade most of the rest of his veterans and go with a young, inexpensive roster, just as Jeff Luhnow did in Houston, that wouldn’t be surprising.
In fact, if he did, he would only be continuing what the Brewers have already started. Many of their key in-season moves in 2015 (in which they dealt free-agents-to-be Gerardo Parra, Aramis Ramirez and Jonathan Broxton to new teams) merely acknowledged that they weren’t contenders that year, but the trade of Carlos Gomez (who was signed through 2016) and Mike Fiers (controllable through 2019) to the Astros before Stearns’ hire strongly suggested they were already rebuilding. Which, of course, made sense. The Brewers’ season had gone horribly to that point, their competition in the NL Central was fierce, and there wasn’t reason to think things would get much better in the short term.
If Stearns were to pursue a full-scale rebuild, then, it would simply continue a process that began last summer, as he suggested last week. “The Brewers’ organization really began that transitional period in the middle of this year,” said Stearns. “When [owner] Jim Crane bought the Astros and Jeff Luhnow took over … [t]hey were starting from scratch. I don’t see us as starting from scratch.”
Stearns’ biggest deals to continue to rebuild the team don’t need to happen this offseason, but if they do, his top trade chip will be catcher Jonathan Lucroy. The 29-year-old is coming off a down season marked by a broken toe and concussion issues, but he was a viable MVP candidate in 2014 thanks to not only his offense but his work with the Brewers’ pitchers. Additionally, he’s signed to a very team-friendly contract that will pay him just $9.25MM in the next two seasons combined. Last year, Lucroy wanted to discuss another extension with the Brewers, but the team said no, presumably wanting to take advantage of his very favorable existing contract and avoid signing him further into his thirties.
While the Brewers have also previously sounded reluctant to deal Lucroy, and Stearns himself recently described Lucroy as a reason to expect the Brewers to improve in 2016, Stearns seems likely to try to get something for his asset at some point. The question is whether Stearns wants to gamble on Lucroy restoring his trade value by staying healthy for the first few months of the season. Keeping Lucroy around for a few months would also allow the Brewers to play much of the 2016 season with one of their most marketable players still in tow. If they do elect to deal him this winter, though, the Nationals, Angels, Twins and perhaps Braves (who reportedly would have interest in Lucroy if he were available) could be potential trade partners.
There are a few additional veterans the Brewers could deal. First baseman Adam Lind, whose $8MM option the Brewers will likely exercise, remains a plus hitter signed to a reasonable contract; he should be able to bring back a decent prospect or two. The Pirates would be a good fit if the two teams can agree to a trade within the NL Central, and the Mariners might also be a possibility. The Brewers could also get good value for relievers Francisco Rodriguez and Will Smith. K-Rod is still just 33 and was quietly terrific last season, and Smith was one of baseball’s best lefty relievers, dominating batters on both sides of the plate and posting a ridiculous 12.9 strikeouts per nine innings. If the Brewers don’t get offers they like, they could also wait and trade either pitcher in July.
The only two other Brewers signed to significant contracts are Ryan Braun and Matt Garza. Braun did hit .285/.356/.498 in a resurgent 2015 season, but his contract (which was signed all the way back in 2011 but hasn’t even technically kicked in yet) is arguably already a problem due to the length of the commitment, his age (32 in November) and lack of defensive value. Since he’s still productive, the Brewers could conceivably trade him, but they might have to pay a significant portion of his contract or take on another big contract to do so. That’s probably an option worth pursuing, given the possibility that Braun could decline in the next couple years and become even trickier to trade.
Garza, meanwhile, is coming off a miserable 5.63 ERA season in which he left the team early after being removed from the rotation, and his peripheral numbers suggest only a modest rebound is in store. As MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy pointed out in a recent edition of the MLBTR Podcast, the Brewers still owe Garza $25MM, which means he’ll likely be back with the team in 2016. And besides Smith, the Brewers don’t have any arbitration-eligible players with much value, either — Wily Peralta and Jean Segura are both coming off mediocre seasons.
Many key players from the Brewers’ last winning team — Gomez, Fiers, Ramirez, Yovani Gallardo, Kyle Lohse, Zach Duke — are now gone, and others have torpedoed their trade value with disappointing performances. For Stearns, the Brewers’ relative lack of trade assets might actually be a blessing, at least in some respects. Perhaps the most important thing a GM can do in his first few months on the job is evaluate the organization he’s inherited, and right now, Stearns needs make sure he has the right coaches, scouts and front office personnel, and that he’s deploying them effectively. That process has already begun; the Brewers announced last week that they’re only keeping manager Craig Counsell, hitting coach Darnell Coles and third base coach Ed Sedar from their 2015 coaching staff, and earlier today the hiring of Arnold as AGM was announced.
With that in mind, then, Stearns’ offseason might not be that tumultuous, at least not from a player-acquisition standpoint. The Brewers already have young, or at least controllable, players at many positions, and they can use 2016 to find out which are likely to be helpful in the long term. A few, like left fielder Khris Davis and starting pitchers Jimmy Nelson and Taylor Jungmann, have already proven their value to the club. Davis quietly hit 27 homers in 440 plate appearances last year, and Nelson and Jungmann were among the Brewers’ best starting pitchers. Jungmann’s emergence was a pleasant surprise, given his sometimes underwhelming performances in the minors.
Elsewhere, Domingo Santana, one of the key acquisitions in the Gomez trade, will receive chances in the outfield, alongside Davis. Braun will occupy the other spot if the Brewers aren’t able to trade him. Eating some of his contract, dealing him in a Matt Kemp-style trade, and acquiring someone like Austin Jackson or Rajai Davis to play center field on a short-term basis might be a neat trick, though. Santana isn’t really a center fielder, so clearing space for him in a corner and getting a better defender to play in center would help the Brewers’ pitching staff. Dealing Braun would be franchise-changing from a branding perspective, of course, but it seems likely to happen at some point.
If the Brewers do deal Lind, their infield could feature some combination of Jason Rogers, Scooter Gennett, Segura, Luis Sardinas and Elian Herrera. The 27-year-old Rogers performed well as a rookie in 2015, while Gennett, Segura and Sardinas all struggled to varying degrees. Top prospect Orlando Arcia could make an impact at some point in 2016, however, potentially solidifying the shortstop position. In the meantime, the addition of a veteran could help stabilize the Brewers’ infield — Kelly Johnson, who bats left-handed and can play first, second and third, might be a good fit at a reasonable price. Assuming Lind is dealt, the Brewers could also acquire someone like Justin Morneau to platoon with Rogers.
Nelson, Jungmann and Garza will likely be back in the rotation, along with some combination of Ariel Pena, recent trade acquisition Zach Davies and Peralta. Several other young pitchers, including Jorge Lopez, Josh Hader and Adrian Houser, could also find playing time. That might be enough arms to get Milwaukee through the season, but but perhaps it wouldn’t hurt to acquire an innings eater to fill out the rotation anyway. Perhaps they could also sign a pitcher with the aim of trading him for extra talent at the deadline and replacing him with Lopez, Hader or Houser.
In the bullpen, even if the Brewers do trade Rodriguez and/or Smith, there will still be a fair number of interesting arms in Jeremy Jeffress, Corey Knebel, Michael Blazek, Tyler Thornburg and Yhonathan Barrios. It’s possible that the Brewers could add to that group, particularly if Smith is traded. Smith’s departure would leave the Brewers bullpen very heavily right-handed, and the team could look to the outside for lefty relief help or consider retaining the left-handed Cesar Jimenez.
The keys with any of these additions ought to be to supplement existing talent rather than blocking it. Players like Davis and Johnson would help the Brewers keep costs down, but they would also be helpful because of their versatility. Davis, for example, could easily move into a fourth-outfielder role if, say, top prospect Brett Phillips were to get off to a hot start at Triple-A and earn big-league playing time. (Davis or Jackson might also have trade value in July if that scenario were to unfold.) And Johnson could move to one of any number of positions, switching positions if one of the Brewers’ younger infielders proved he deserved regular playing time.
Of course, we’ve assumed here that it’s obvious what course Stearns will follow. Maybe it isn’t. Padres GM A.J. Preller, for example, had a scouting and player-development background and inherited an organization that, like the Brewers today, was a losing team with an improving farm system. Rather than building around that farm system, he dealt many of his top prospects in a surprising (and ultimately ill-advised) attempt to contend. Perhaps, then, Stearns has something unexpected up his sleeve, despite the Brewers’ situation and his own background in Houston. That would be a shock, however — it makes little sense to stop trading now that the Gomez/Fiers deal is done, and the Brewers finished a full 29 games behind the third-place finisher in the NL Central last year. The Padres’ attempt at contention sort of made sense in the right light, but for the Brewers, a radical deviation from their presumed plans would just seem crazy. There’s little left for Stearns to do, then, but to continue what the team started before he arrived.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
I’m not a huge Brewers fan, but I moved to Wisconsin a year ago and have started to follow them a little closer.
I understood the Gomez trade. They got a great return on that trade, but people were not happy about it. Gomez was insanely popular amongst Brewer fans.
I don’t want to know what happens if they trade away arguably the most favorite Brewer, Lucroy.
They should keep Lucroy.. They will need a steady veteran backstop to help with the kids and he is definitely cheap enough..
Double edged sword. Trade Luc now, and either get an older vet back or sign a FA would be a good move, only because Luc now has a concussion issue and is a bit fragile. Get the most that you can before another foul tip rattles his cage and he becomes Korey Koskie part 2. Or keep him and hope for the best in health. Maybe a little more time at 1st base would help him out with his health.
The reason everyone was so upset is that roughly 90% or so of baseball fans only care about what the ML team is doing. They don’t understand the business side of it or the idea that if you’re mediocre that sometimes it is better to tear down and rebuild.
Sometimes you have to rebuild… but you also have to consider, fans have favorite players. They buy their jersey or poster (do people still buy posters?)… and to see them get traded is never fun.
And yes, there’s a business side to it… there’s a baseball element to it. And I know that the Brewers were probably reluctant to trade Gomez (and justifiably so), as they will if they trade Lucroy.
But I’ll never criticize fans for being upset that their favorite player gets traded (unless that player is a jerk, then I’ll wonder why everyone is upset), because it’s baseball… fans shouldn’t always have to think about the business side of the game when they want to watch their favorite players and teams.
Some where along the line people started to cheer for the name on the back of the jersey instead of the name on front, the Yankees do not even put a name on the back. I think the only fan base who has any right to complain is Oakland trading just for the sake of trading it seems. What did Gomez achieve as a brewer to make him such a big loss? Hes a solid player but hes not Robin Yount.
He’s definitely not Robin Yount, granted. However, the casual fan probably likes him because he’s an exciting player to watch — at his best, he can do it all. Home runs, stolen bases, great plays in the outfield, and a lot of swagger. One of those guys that you love on your team and despise on someone else’s.
I am wondering if the Brewers could work out a contract swap with the Red Sox. Something like Braun and Garza for Ramirez and Craig.. I know the Red Sox would be taking on quite a bit more in salary but Braun could theoretically handle 1st or RF if Castillo or JBJ falter. Plus, he is a perfect DH candidate when Ortiz finally hangs it up.. Garza could probably be turned into a very good back of the bullpen arm and yes his salary would equal that of the best closers in the game but I wouldn’t be surprised if he became one.. Garza is still owed a couple of million less than Craig whose value is nonexistent. That is if Farrell and Co. are not able to fix him.. They might be able to make him into a decent #4-#5. If not I have no doubt he might not like the bullpen at first but once he starts hearing cheers on his entry into games again I am sure his position will change..
For the Brewers they can put Ramirez at 3rd and let him build up some value again in a situation where he can be relieved of all of the pressure he was under in Boston. Heck they can also just issue him the #16 and can then selloff the rest of Aramis’s jerseys that they have left over from last year.. I am sure he can rebound his value big time and can then be shipped off to an AL team in need of a DH or any team in need of a 3rd baseman (After they sell those jerseys of course).. As for Craig, he allows the Brewers to trade Lind (who could return a nice prospect). Once he gets back into more comfortable surroundings he might even start to return to his prior NL self.. Once again being in a smaller market and being pressure free to perform like Ramirez might get him back on track.. Regardless, he will cost less than Garza and gets that dead weight out of the rotation.. He can’t possibly hit any worse than he did in Boston..
I would actually do this as a Brewers fan.
As a Brewer fan, no thank you. The money matches, but I would bet on Braun being the best player by far of these four over the next 4 years. Craig is worthless now, and pitchers bounce back more often than hitters. Also Hanley is useless as an infielder and doesnt hit enough to be an outfielder. I wonder if, with the Brewers payroll obligations so low next year, they could try to re-work Brauns deal to frontload more of the money making him more marketable to trade later, or making room for other guys when/if they are competitive down the road.
Braun is definitely better than Hanley right now no question. But if my calculations are correct Braun has 100 million left in his deal while Hanley has 60 mill left. Is Braun 40 mill better than Hanley? And Braun who is consistently injured just coming off back surgery and thumb injury sounds like a long term mess. We also have kind of an overload of outfielders while we have no one at 3B. If Hanley could turn it around Brewers i’m sure could find some takers as well to trade him.
If the Brewers don’t trade for Hanley Ramirez, they have no answer at 3rd base.
If the Brewers do trade for Hanley Ramirez, they STILL have no answer at 3rd base.
This just makes no sense. It isn’t like Milwaukee can hide him at DH.
And even though Braun is better than any outfielder Boston has right now, the Red Sox have young options with legitimate upside at a not ridiculous price right now.
Craig also does nothing for Milwaukee, and neither does Garza for Boston.
Just a pointless trade all around for both sides.
If Braun’s nagging injury issues are behind him, he’s still quite capable of hitting .300 and driving in 100 runs and being a prime middle of the order hitter. That’s worth more than Craig and Ramirez even and $40 million over the life of his contract. The Brewers might be willing to pay some of Braun’s contract if they trade him but they want younger major league talent or at least one very good prospect back, not somebody else’s junk. I look for Brewers to simply eat Garza’s contract.
I just do not see where such a trade makes any sense for either side.
Hanley Ramirez is being moved to 1st base by Boston because he can’t play anywhere else. Craig is a 1st baseman. The Brewers still have Lind (I’m aware they’re likely to shop him, but he hasn’t been traded yet), and they are rebuilding, so in-house options like Rogers, Clark, etc. are acceptable (and A LOT cheaper).
Boston has an outfield logjam, and they’re looking for an ace pitcher, not a 3/4 type who is owed a decent sum of money.
No reason for either Boston or Milwaukee to bother with this in my opinion.
This is a fantastic idea
First, Brewers have a replacement for Lind in Jason Rogers making the minimum. The problem with Rogers is he’s a RH hitter. Lind was the lone LH power bat in the lineup. How does Craig solve that? I personally don’t think Lind is traded until next July. Even if Ramirez could play adequate defense at 3B, he’s also a RH bat. Maybe if the Red Sox included Travis Shaw, they might listen.
I still think Braun has 3 or 4 productive years left. Brewer payroll isn’t that high that they have to deal him now. They don’t have to take damaged goods back.
I wonder if a Garza for Nolasco swap would interest either team? It’s merely an exchange of damaged goods for both clubs (with both being owed exactly the same dollar amount), but it may at least be a change-of-scenery type deal where each struggling starter may hope to provide value for the new team. Especially with Garza’s falling out at the end of the year, they may not want to bring him back to the clubhouse, and a deal like this may be the only way for it to happen.
Garza, as bad and ornery as he is, still better than Nolasco. Don’t see that happening.
Going to be a long road back to October baseball given the NL Central’s Cubs, Cardinals, and Pirates, but they’ll be competitive once again. I just wonder when.
Long road but well timed. Because of the strength of the Pirates, Cards, and Cubs…. there is little urgency to make risky moves to try to compete. The team is so far away from contention in that division, Stern can put a plan in place and follow it. By the time the Brewers are on the rise again, the other teams will have peaked or be close to peaking and the team can tweak and be a player in the NLC again.
Its ok for a long road back. No pressure to make risky trades like SD did last year… selling off a bunch of prospects to make a run when they were still rebuilding. Stern can fully implement his plan free from trying to compete with St. Lou, Pirates, or Cubs. Those teams will all be at their apex or declining about the time the Brewers are ascending. It’ll make for more enjoyable competition at that time.
If Braun can’t be traded, I say trade Khris Davis to an AL team where he can DH. With his weak throwing arm but good power at the plate, Davis can be a star at DH. The Brewers farm system is strongest in outfield prospects anyway.
I was thinking the same thing. Maybe a team like Seattle would be willing to part with say Patrick Kivlehan straight up for Davis. Then move Braun back to LF, put Santana in RF and see if Phillips or Reed can stick in CF. Also signing Raj Davis as insurance wouldn’t be the worst move for a young and rebuilding team.
Another trade idea would be to trade Garza and $6MM ($3MM per year) to Cleveland for Chris Johnson. We have enough young arms to fill out the rotation but could use a veteran to play 3B for the next two years.
Good analysis. I do think it’s relevant that, though “the Brewers finished a full 29 games behind the third-place finisher in the NL Central last year,” that was the Cubs, who had the third-best record in not just the division, but all of baseball. The point stands, though, that, by record, the Brewers are currently behind the three best teams in all of baseball. Therefore a full Astros- or Cubs-style rebuild is definitely called for.
I highly doubt Mark Attanasio brought in a new GM to reverse course and do an AJ Preller nosedive.
Can I just say that the discussion boards here are so much more pleasant and constructive than at the MLB.com page. I almost have to pinch myself to know if the intelligent sans insults and belittling others discussion is for real. Thank you so much.
Here’s the issue with trading Lucroy. While the Brewers have a lot of OF and middle infield depth in their system, they have none at catcher and catcher is the hardest commodity to find. I think Stearns would love to find a taker for Braun and then extend Lucroy. Sure a 4 year deal would take him into his mid 30’s, but the history of this franchise’s struggle to find catchers says he’s their best option. Any team salivating over Lucroy likely does not have a worthy catcher to send back in the deal. Besides with a plethora of young starting pitching to develop, having a vet like Lucroy is extremely valuable to this franchise.
This is a team that yes, finished a long way back but gave the Pirates fits all year and was a victim of a horrendous start. They have two prime prospects in Orlando Arcia and Brett Phillips knocking on the door. Further dismantling of their current roster needs to be selective with that in mind.
I wouldn’t assume Garza is on the roster on opening day. There’s a lot of young arms to sort through and they may just eat his $25 million. When you are replacing him with a minimum salary guy, what benefit is there in keeping him? He’s not likely to pitch well enough to restore more than minimal at best trade value and he’s simply blocking guys.