The Mariners enter the offseason with two first basemen projected to earn a combined $13.2MM – Mark Trumbo and Logan Morrison. Ten days ago, it was reported that the club may wish to winnow down to just one. Both Trumbo and Morrison can fake it in the outfield, but new GM Jerry Dipoto prefers athletic outfielders. In other words, there may not be a place for both guys.
Trumbo has battled injury over the last couple seasons and will earn about $9.1MM in his final spin through arbitration. Still, it seems unlikely that the team would non-tender him. He hit .263/.316/.419 with 13 home runs in 361 plate appearances after the M’s acquired him mid-season. While a non-tender would be shocking, a trade can almost be expected. After all, Dipoto already dealt Trumbo once while with the Angels.
As for Morrison, there are two considerations that could decide his future with the Mariners – does Seattle keep Trumbo, and do they think Morrison warrants a role. He didn’t do much for his stock this by hitting .225/.302/.383 last season. Over the last four seasons, he’s totaled negative 0.1 WAR according to FanGraphs. However, his best season was in 2014 (1.1 WAR). Management could hope last year’s success was a better representation of his talent.
His poor numbers are partially due to mismanagement. Against right-handed pitching, he slashed .241/.323/.444 (112 wRC+) with all 17 of his home runs. Fellow southpaws owned him yet he was allowed to hit 155 times against same-handed pitching.
As a point of comparison, Brewers slugger Adam Lind only had 112 plate appearances against lefties even though he had 61 more plate appearances than Morrison on the season. Lind had a much larger role with his club than Morrison so there’s really no reason for Morrison to see more lefties.
It’s worth pointing out that Morrison did have reverse platoon splits in 2014, but those depended upon a .389 BABIP. The reverse splits were also responsible for his career best performance last season. Research has shown that reverse splits are almost always illusory and do not correlate to future production. With this information in hand, it’s tempting to conclude that his 2014 campaign was an outlier.
Based on FanGraphs’ WAR model, his $4.1MM arbitration projection would equate to a little over half a win on the free agent market. In other words, he’s expected to be paid like a bench player. If he’s used correctly by his next manager, he could easily earn his keep. The bigger problem is constructing a division-winning roster around him if he’s used as a starter. If Morrison isn’t starting, it’s not a stretch to suggest that the roster spot would be better filled by somebody like Jesus Montero. That would also free up about $3.5MM for other purposes like shoring up the bullpen.
The deadline to tender a contract in early December could work in Morrison’s favor. If the club hopes to sign Chris Davis, they probably won’t yet know where they stand. Similarly, Korean star Byung-ho Park may not even be posted by that time. The other “big” names on the free agent market include Mike Napoli, Kelly Johnson, Steve Pearce, Chris Parmelee, and Justin Morneau (if his $9MM mutual option is declined). Of course, Morrison’s likeliest rival is Trumbo. And the club may ultimately choose to keep both players or discard Morrison regardless of the alternatives.
Trumbo is much more likely to stay than Morrison, despite LoMo’s clear advantage as a fielder over Trumbo. LoMo is far too streaky a hitter to command an everyday job, as his platoon splits and long dry spells indicate. Trumbo started out poorly in Seattle, but after Edgar Martinez took over as hitting coach, his numbers steadily improved. The M’s will want to allocate the $4mm+ that Morrison could earn elsewhere, and they won’t find a trade partner given that most teams will simply wait for LoMo to be non-tendered rather than give up anything of value. Now, if the M’s trade Trumbo on top of non-tendering LoMo, they won’t have a 1B to speak of, as Montero has even more extreme platoon splits than LoMo, and he’s also too streaky at this point to rely on. Would the M’s make a play for Chris Davis? That seems to contradict DiPoto’s statement that signing high-price free agent contracts are the surest way to doom the franchise (he said this at a season ticket holder event just before the end of the season.) My money is on Trumbo manning 1B for the M’s on Opening Day 2016, with LoMo relegated to a strict platoon role with another team.
LoMo could be one of the most desirable non-tenders on the market. Morneau has dealt with injuries and is up in the air, davis costs a pick and tons of cash, parmelee won’t even be healthy until February, Napoli gas shown signs of aggressive decline and Pearce remains a streaky question mark. Only Johnson and Lomo look to be relative bargains.
Yes, but there’s a reason he’ll be a bargain. He’s a below average offensive 1B (92 OPS+) who showed a little pop and a little speed in spurts. If he goes to a ballpark that is good for lefty hitters AND he is strictly platooned against RHP (.190 BA with a .500 OPS against LHP), he could have some success. But he won’t get anything near MLBTM’s arbitration estimates based on this last season.
If/when LoMo hits the open market, he could be an interesting pickup for teams like the Orioles (if they let Chris Davis go), Rays (if they choose to part ways with James Loney), Indians (move Carlos Santana to full-time DH), Astros (possible non-tender of Carter there), Pirates (if they trade Pedro Alvarez), Rockies (if they don’t pick up Morneau’s option), or Padres (if they let Yonder Alonso go, though the ballpark is NOT good for lefty hitters.)
WAR – What is it good for? Absolutely nothing. Hopefully DiPito doesn’t buy into the cult of Sabermetrics.
WAR is a theoretical tool that should be PART of what is used in evaluating players. It does have some value. I agree, though, that using it as the be all, end all, would be just as much a mistake as only using any other tool exclusively.
WAR is an evaluation approximation tool. Nothing more, nothing less. The author used the traditional slash lines as well, though OBP & SLG were considered radical stats once upon a time too.
I would hope Dipoto would bring Sabermetrics to Seattle. They’ve been grossly underachieving without modern evaluation methods.
I didn’t know that tools practically every team uses today, and all the successful ones, can be qualified as a “cult.” I’ve always thought cults were a lot more niche.
Sabermetrics is part of the equation, and I think that DiPoto understands that you can’t run a baseball team simply by reading the results of a computer-based analysis. There are human factors that need to be taken into account. However, I agree with JcHc3in1 in that the M’s have trailed far behind other teams in modern evaluation methods; Jack Z was an “old school” guy who claimed he used new metrics, but basically used batting average, HR, and RBI to evaluate his players. Certainly, defense was never taken into consideration, as the team often moved players to new positions without taking the effects on pitchers into consideration (and almost always did so without talking to the player first and/or giving him time to get ready for the adjustment.) The simple fact is: anyone with anything resembling a “modern” approach to evaluation is light years ahead of the two previous administrations for the M’s.
I’ve NEVER seen or heard ANY pro-Sabermetric person try to convince anyone that someone “can run a team simply by reading the results of a computer-based analysis.” NEVER. I’ve only ever seen or heard it from anti-sabr detractors attacking modern analysis.
Dipoto traded trumbo once, he can do it again. Morrison can at least play a good first base.