Time for another MLBTR Mailbag! As always, thanks for the questions — if yours wasn’t answered this time, join in one of our weekly chats (Tuesday and Thursday, 2pm Central) for another shot.
On to the questions and answers …
We all know who the big free agents are this off-season and there has been much speculation on where the wind up. But, who do you think will be the 4 or 5 biggest names traded this off-season? Yasiel Puig appears to be the top candidate, but is he? Who else might join him? — Troy K.
I wouldn’t call Puig the “top trade candidate” of the offseason, but he’s a high-profile talent whose name does figure to be kicked around the rumor mill this winter. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him moved, but the Dodgers won’t sell low on him despite a down season.
A good place to start if you’re trying to find big-name offseason trade candidates is to parse the list of players that will be free agents following the 2016 season. Teams that control these players will almost certainly be far more willing to entertain offers due to the limited control they have left. The most intriguing name there is Stephen Strasburg, whose name has been mentioned previously as a possible offseason trade piece. That’s not to say it’s likely, but clubs looking to make a win-now splash will at least call GM Mike Rizzo. Neil Walker, Andrew Cashner, Carlos Santana and Jay Bruce all strike me as possibilities as well, though the latter two have club options to control them beyond 2016.
Tyson Ross and Craig Kimbrel will be discussed, as will Jonathan Lucroy, Adam Lind and perhaps even Todd Frazier, who has two years of club control remaining. Aroldis Chapman might be the likeliest elite name to change hands this offseason, as he has just one year of club control remaining, and the Reds don’t figure to contend in 2016.
If (when) the Orioles don’t bring Davis back would they consider (be in the running) for some like Heyward or Alex Gordon? — Dave S.
Jason Heyward’s probably going to cost as much or more than Davis, so he’s not a likelier consideration. Gordon probably comes cheaper due to his age, but it’d still require a franchise-record contract for Baltimore, probably in excess of $100MM. That seems pretty unlikely.
What do you think the O’s would have to give up to get Pedro Alvarez? — David K.
Not much, really, Alvarez is a non-tender candidate, so if the Orioles want to take on his arb salary and send a second-tier prospect or a pair of low-level lottery ticket minor leaguers to the Pirates, they’d probably have some interest. Alvarez has huge power, but he’s a very poor defender that doesn’t hit lefties and is going to cost a projected $8.1MM.
Do you think the Dodgers will try to bring back Kendrick or decide to go with young guys like Hernandez and/or Peraza? — Jeff D.
They’ll have interest, yeah. At one point during the season, there was talk that the Dodgers loved Kendrick enough to consider him an extension candidate. It’s a little difficult to imagine the Dodgers as the top bidder — that sentence felt strange to type — since they have other infield options in Justin Turner, Corey Seager, Jose Peraza and Enrique Hernandez that could fill in.
The only way Kendrick makes sense on a long-term deal, though — barring trades of any of the aforementioned infielders — is if Turner plays third in 2016 with Seager at shortstop and Kendrick at second base. Then, when Turner leaves as a free agent following the 2016 campaign, Seager moves to third with Peraza taking over at shortstop.
Given the needs they have throughout the rest of the roster, I don’t know that Kendrick should be a primary focus. Starting pitching and attempting to move an outfielder (specifically Carl Crawford or Andre Ethier) seem like bigger needs.
J.P. Howell’s 2016 club option has now vested to a player option. Do you expect Howell to exercise his option and stay with Dodgers, or elect free agency for a longer contract? — Jesse P.
Howell’s excellence has kind of flown under the radar, but he’s coming off a three-year window with a 1.97 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and a huge 58.3 percent ground-ball rate. Howell’s going to be 33 next year and was roughed up by right-handed hitters in 2015, but some of his platoon struggles were BABIP-related (.368), and his overall track record seems worthy of more than a one-year deal. I think he can opt out and find two years or maybe even work out a two-year deal with L.A. that cuts his annual salary but boosts his guarantee. After all, Andrew Friedman traded for Howell in 2006 as a 29-year-old GM and had him in the organization until 2012, when Howell hit the open market at season’s end. He knows Howell well and, presumably, would like to keep him around.
With salaries coming off of the books (Rios, Holland, Guthrie) will the Royals be able to sign both Gordon and Zobrist? — Kit M.
Those salaries are coming off the books (along with those of Gordon and Zobrist, at least for now), but even with those subtractions, the Royals have some significant increases in next year’s payroll. Wade Davis and Alcides Escobar will combine to earn $3.25MM more in 2016 than they did in 2015, and significant arbitration raises are in store for Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Danny Duffy and Jarrod Dyson. Before factoring in for league-minimum players to fill out the roster, Kansas City should have about $90.5MM on the books ($91.6MM if they tender a contract to Drew Butera).
Payroll could conceivably rise, with another World Series appearance providing a revenue boost, but Gordon is going to command an annual salary in the $20MM range, if not a bit higher. Signing him alone would put Kansas City above their Opening Day payroll from 2015, unless they shed salary elsewhere.
As for Zobrist, he’s shaping up as one of the most in-demand free agents of the offseason. His age places a cap on his earning potential, unlike some of the younger free agents on this year’s market (e.g. Jason Heyward), which could keep more teams in the bidding picture. On the one hand, that makes a return plausible for Kansas City; on the other, it’s not the Royals’ style to outbid the rest of the market in a competition like that.
Last winter, they diversified the risk of their offseason spending by giving one- and two-year deals to multiple free agents. That’s a more realistic expectation than re-signing Zobrist. Gordon could be the exception due to his status as a franchise icon, but there will be other clubs willing to pay him more than Kansas City can stomach.
Very interesting suggestion to move Peraza back to shortstop since that was where he started with the Braves. Peraza is actually a better defender at SS than Seager and scouts indicated that Seager could very well be a Gold Glove player at 3B. But I’m not so sure re-singing Kendrick is the best way to go. His defense hasn’t been crisp all season and has lost a step or two to track down ground-balls, so his age could be a factor depending how long the length of the contract is. But I think getting a draft pick out of Kendrick is wiser.
Yea I think they’re very well covered with Seager/Turner/Peraza in some combo at 2B/SS/3B without resigning Kendrick. Trading Heaney didn’t seem like a big deal to me at the time since he hadn’t shown much with the Marlins, but 2015 was a big step forward, so that trade was a blunder along with Gordon. Hate when young new ‘ivy league’ mgmt is brought in and are given carte blanche to make changes because they are ‘young new ivy league mgmt’, and proceed to blunder it. There was a real galvanizing excitement with Gordon/Puig/HanRam/Uribe/Kemp, they seemed to feed off each other and 2014 was the year they should have won it all IMO.
Clubhouse in 2014 was dysfunctional with Puig, Ramirez, and Kemp. Kemp is statistically the worst regular OF’er in MLB with a negative WAR approaching 25. Ramirez a malingering malcontent who Redsox would now like to dump on someone. Puig? He learned well from Ramirez on how to malinger and pout at the same time. Looking forward to the day that Puig is traded.
Yes you are rehashing what has been commonly said, and I’m not saying I would’ve resigned HanRam or kept Kemp, I’m talking about having a potent offense without resorting to Ruggiano and Kike during the playoffs. Wasted the efforts of Kersh and Greinke. Also think it was necessary for Puig to have someone like Uribe around as a mentor. But we could debate those things all day, bottom line is the 2015 team was not as good as the 2014 was, and that’s not debatable. The idea is to get better each year.
Kemp had a -24.6 defensive runs above average which is the lowest among all players in the league. He also has 8 errors which is tied with Gregory Polanco for most among right fielders. He is also a bad clubhouse guy. Obviously the Padres regret that trade for sure since he is signed through 2019.
If it’s not broke, don’t fix it. The Dodgers were clearly broken in 2014, as they still are now. Friedman is moving in the right direction. Rebuilding practically an entire franchise from the farm on up does not happen in a couple seasons. No one on those teams (2013-2015) including the “galvanizing excitement” of HanRam, Kemp, Puig, Gordon and Uribe could hit in the postseason.
I agree that the Dodgers should try to move Crawford and Ethier. Crawford hasn’t been playing up to his contract as well as being injury-prone and Ethier is an overpaid platoon player because he can’t hit LHP, but he has increased his trade value so Ethier is most likely to be dealt for a team that wants a very good left-handed bat who is so good against RHP. I’d be shocked if they find a taker for Crawford.
Which team would want Crawford? How much of his contract are the Dodgers going to retain? I would put Ethier in the same situation.
That leaves OF/3B Guerrero, Van Slyke (arb), Ruggiano (arb), Heisey (arb) & Schebler (team) as LF options. Pederson (team) & Hernandez (team) in CF. Puig in RF.
IF Dodgers can find ways to move Ethier, Crawford, and Puig off the roster then we may see Justin Upton or Chris Davis signed to play OF.
I wouldn’t trade Puig just yet given the fact that he has a low trade value. I would like to see the OF looking like this : Heyward in RF Perderson in CF and Puig in LF. Heyward is the type of player this front office would love to get.
I’m pretty sure Puig’s trade value is only low among internet chatterers, not among actual baseball decision makers who tend to like players who are both immensely talented and remarkably cheap for three more years.
Why is everyone so keen to trade Puig? It defies all baseball logic. He’s a potential top 20 player who’s getting paid next to nothing. That’s all you can ask for in baseball
Hopefully Dodgers send Crawford packing, even if it means releasing him and paying out the remainder of his contract. Ethier likely to be traded as you suggest, Redsox might be a landing spot.
O’s getting Pedro: take on his salary is the big thing the pirates want. Anything else is a bonus. A mid grade prospect, maybe two depending on their level… 1st/3rd basemen Really though won’t take much.
Also this year Pedro starting hitting lefties a bit better, but the sample size is really small.
Pirates fans will love to get him out of town and to a team where he can actually hit
Joe…as long as Pedro doesn’t play on the field, he will be a plus for the O’s. 🙂
yeah kinda the same in Pittsburgh. but does give the option as an ’emergency’ 1st/3rd basemen you know for those situations where on the way to the game half the team gets taco bell and then gets the running diarrhea after the game starts and can’t stay on the field with out stinking the place up.
then again.. some of Pedro’s fielding errors could stink it up even more 🙂 I kid but it is practically true.
Upside though the last couple months he looked a lot better at first.. don’t know if he actually was.. maybe just got used to his crap play.. hard to say.
another option, use Peraza in a package to acquire a younger starting pitcher from a team in need of a starting SS. Seager wants to play SS and will only be 22 next season with Torreyes and Hernandez as backups and have other SS prospects coming through the minors.
Is it possible that Zaidi and Beane work on a deal?
Good starting point would be Peraza and puig for gray and a utility infielder like sogard.
A better starting point would have to include Seager. Gray will require a much larger package to acquire. Puig’s value is not high.