ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers dispels the notion that the Cubs will (or even that they should) shop Kyle Schwarber this offseason due to his perceived defensive shortcomings. While Schwarber undeniably struggled in the outfield this postseason, Rogers notes that no one was clamoring for such a move in the regular season. Schwarber logged about 300 innings in the outfield during the regular season, and while his inexperience showed, he wasn’t egregiously bad over that sample of games, either. It’s hardly a representative sample, but Rogers notes that extrapolating Schwarber’s Defensive Runs Saved mark to a full season would leave him about 10 to 13 runs below average, and his bat is capable of making up the difference. He also points out that with his work ethic, Schwarber has plenty of time to improve at a position that’s still pretty new to him. I’d agree that the notion of trading Schwarber — which I’ve heard from many fans — is an overreaction, to say the least. Over the course of a full season between the outfield corners and behind the plate, I’d expect Schwarber’s bat to make him a plenty valuable player, even if he doesn’t develop into an everyday catcher or above-average outfield defender.
Elsewhere in the NL Central…
- Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review examines whether or not the Pirates should be bidders for Korean first baseman Byung-ho Park. Sawchik spoke to former MLB scout Daniel Kim, who said that the posting fee for Park could be at least double the $5MM Pittsburgh bid to secure negotiation rights with Park’s former Nexen Heroes teammate, Jung Ho Kang. Sawchik writes that as many as 20 teams have scouted Park, with the Rangers having sent “top executives” to watch him. Sawchik also points out the presence of top prospect Josh Bell, who isn’t far from the Majors and projects as a power-hitting first baseman himself. While Bell could be a trade chip, the Pirates also need to address the starting rotation, so perhaps spending money on Park while an internal option is present isn’t the optimal use of their resources. The Pirates, like other MLB clubs, don’t have too long to decide, as Park will be posted next Monday with bids due by next Friday.
- The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Bill Brink writes that the Pirates have at least cursory interest in Park, reminding that they applied for credentials to watch him earlier this season. However, he also notes that Kang’s success will probably boost the market’s valuation of Park, possibly pricing him out of the range of Pittsburgh, who also has $8MM committed to Mike Morse next year. Earlier today, Sawchik examined at length how Kang’s success could drive up the market for Park.
- While no one’s quite certain whether or not the Reds will trade Aroldis Chapman this winter, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports writes that the Diamondbacks, Blue Jays and Nationals would be at the forefront of trade talks for Cincinnati’s All-Star closer this offseason should they listen to offers. The D-Backs, of course, pursued Chapman aggressively prior to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, while the Nats could have a very different-looking bullpen next year. Drew Storen seems like an obvious trade candidate, and the Nationals will almost certainly shop Jonathan Papelbon this winter as well.
Cubs and A’s fans, Schwarber and maybe something more for Sonny Gray?
Sonny is going to win a CY Young soon, the guy has so much talent and will only continue to excel.
They’d have to include Schwarber, Carl Edwards, and another top tier prospect or maybe even a mid prospect and Starlin Castro.
I have no doubt Sonny will be dealt within the next 2 years if the A’s continue to be buried in the bottom of all MLB, but the return needs to be very very significant, much more than they gave up for Samardzija.
As a Cubs fan, I wouldn’t do Schwarber for Gray straight across, let alone package more players. The Cubs will spend on starting pitching in free agency. They have prospects at the Minor League level that can return established MLB-quality pitching in trades. Schwarber should be a guy that hits better than .270 and approaches 40 HR year in and year out. He’ll more than make up for any shortcomings as a left fielder. Best case, he develops into a serviceable Major League catcher. Worst case, he’s Manny Ramirez in LF. I’ll take either of those.
Manny Ramirez, one of the best right handed hitters in the history of baseball, is your WORST-case scenario for Schwarber? LOL
As a Cubs fan I suggested this same trade… then took a closer look at Gray’s numbers and how long he’s controlled for, and realized Schwarber’s really not enough. Gray’s controlled thru 2020, and is already an established ace. We still need to see if Schwarber can adjust offensively next year to the league adjusting to him, to go along w his defensive concerns. He may turn into an MVP contender, but as of right now his value is not as established as Gray’s is.
I think the reason a lot of people wouldn’t want this trade is because Sonny isn’t a household name as of now and surely doesn’t get the coverage he should out in Oakland as opposed to Chicago.
The guy is an unbelievable arm and like you mentioned a future MVP, but more conservatively at least a CY Young winner very soon. I fully believe that over the next 5 years combined he will be within the top 7 of near all SP rankings in regards to stats.
While the War Bear has had an amazing year, he is still relatively unproven, but with the package I mentioned I think it would be hard for the Beane to turn that type of talent down.
Rizzo for Gray, move Schwarber to first base. If it’s about making the team better, does this make it better?
Not gonna happen. That’s too rich a price, and there are other arms to acquire for cheaper price. That’s not been Theo’s style, not that he can’t change, but Tyson Ross would be cheaper, and he’s not much of a drop off.
I’m not against Schwarber getting dealt, but that’s too much for one guy.
I’m confused about the reasoning on Schwarber …
Just because someone may advocate for a player to be traded does not mean that the player isn’t any good. It made perfect sense for the Tigers to trade Price even though Price might have been the best pitcher in the league.
Trades are all about making your team better. If the Cubbies value defense in the OF, have concerns about Schwarber’s ability AND believe that they can extract needed talent in return, they absolutely should explore trading Schwarber.
I’m not advocating selling low or undervaluing Schwarber. I’m simply acknowledging that moving a player doesn’t mean that the player is terrible or under performing. It may make perfect sense to move him based on the return.
To be fair — I couldn’t stuff everything from Rogers into a notes post. He’s basically saying “Trade him because he ‘projects as a DH'” is a ridiculous notion. I agree. If you trade Schwarber because the A’s offer you Sonny Gray for him and Baez or something, then yeah, makes sense. But I’ve had multiple people ask in chats, the Mailbag, on Twitter, etc. — Who are the best fits for a Schwarber trade? The Cubs clearly have to trade him.
Obviously, they don’t have to. Not by a long shot. It’s not that he should be untouchable, it’s just that assuming a 22-year-old kid who has virtually no OF experience can’t handle the position is silly. More reps, more time, etc. If he’s a -5 run defender in LF at his peak, that’s just fine, considering his offensive upside. The “trade him since he’s a DH in waiting” talk is highly reactionary and, as such, rather senseless.
I wouldn’t trust Byung-ho Park’s power numbers. He doesn’t drive the ball hard and the stats are bloated by very short fences.
I don’t know what the big deal is about KBL league and people making fun here about it. I see fans here posting about it all the time and the “funny” numbers, yet see others posting about the “legit” numbers being put up in the PCL and California leagues that also have really short fences and hardly anyone, except for a few of us ever stop and attempt to correct those posts.
What exactly is the difference between one league and the other with really short fences? Please people make up your minds here.
well if you look at how Kang transitioned to the MLB can give you a general idea.
Kang hit 40hrs his last year in the KBO,
Kang hit 1 hr per 63PAs the first half of the season at .268AVG He then went on to 1 hr per 20PAs at a .310AVG the second half until he got injured.
If he continues the 1HR/20ABs over 600 PA on a full season that is 30HR.
those numbers look good considering Park hit 50+ HRs the past two seasons in the KBO.
But really… doesn’t mean anything. If Park cannot transition and make adjustments like Kang has done then it doesn’t matter
I’m hoping the Astros make a move for Chapman.
The Josh Bell bbref link points to the wrong Josh Bell.
Yep. Took a minute to figure out how to get to him, but this is the Josh Bell y’all looking for. His projected power hasn’t shown up in the HR column yet: http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=bell–007jos
The Pirates should make a fairly serious bid on him at the least. Park does have defensive questions, but still should be at least as good as Pedro after some initial adjustment.
Josh Bell also has some fairly large question marks in his defense at first, but also looks to be improving at a fairly steady clip(?)
Morse’s contract is 8.5m, but the Pirates are not paying much of it. I don’t remember exactly but if you count what we gave up on trade it is only about 2m more this season than it would be if we didn’t trade Tabata to get him. Also Morse should be off the books after ’16.
If Park does something similar to what kang did probably about .280 with 25-30HR on a full season. Which surprisingly (to me) is not far off of what Mike Morse’s career average is for 162 games.. between suspensions and injuries.
In other words, unless Park’s price is OVERLY inflated, getting him shouldn’t be much of a concern salary wise. (also if you non-tender/trade Pedro you save 5M+ Arb)
Just stop. The Cubs are not going to trade Schwarber any time soon.
If the Cubs get Grey in any trade it’s over…Risso not going anywhere forget it.