The Mets seem to love Yoenis Cespedes, and for good reason, but based on talks with Mets people, one rival executive told Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com that he would be “shocked” if the Mets retained him. Â After all, Cespedes could be in line for a $150MM+ deal and the Mets are intent on keeping their rotation together for years to come.
The Mets’ other key free agent, Daniel Murphy,  has “made himself millions,” said one scout, in reference to his postseason heroics.  Even though his stock is trending upwards, however, one rival GM said he still thinks the Mets will pass on extending him the $15.8MM qualifying offer.
Here’s a look at more of the highlights from Heyman’s article..
- The Orioles would appear to have a hard time hanging on to Chris Davis given their usual budget, but Peter Angelos has stated his interest in keeping the slugger and even with a potential ~$200MM asking price, re-signing him hasn’t been ruled out, Heyman writes.  In the most recent edition of Tim Dierkes’ 2016 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings,  Davis is ranked No. 4 ahead of several notable names, including fellow slugger Yoenis Cespedes.  Tim projects that Davis will be vying for a seven-year deal with a mid-$20MM AAV.
- “Dodgers higher-ups are said to give Don Mattingly big credit for the way he’s handled the clubhouse,” Heyman writes.  It’s not certain that Mattingly will return in 2016, but Heyman notes that the approval of Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke doesn’t hurt his case.
- Sources confirmed to Heyman that the Phillies have interviewed Royals assistant GM J.J. Picollo and Angels assistant GM Matt Klentak for their GM job.  Both men have been mentioned as candidates for the vacancy.
- The Cubs love Kyle Schwarber’s bat but they’re still unsure where he’ll end up in the field.  Schwarber is currently slotted in the outfield and it remains to be seen whether he’ll eventually end up behind the plate.
- Reds bench coach Jay Bell is “thought to have at least come up at some point” in the Marlins’ managerial search, but a source tells Heyman that he is “not in the mix” at this time.
- Some Padres people could see team exec Moises Alou taking over as manager, but three of Alou’s friends told Heyman that they doubt he’d even want the job.  The known managerial candidates there are Diamondbacks minor-league manager Phil Nevin, former infielder Alex Cora, Diamondbacks coach Andy Green, Angels assistant GM Scott Servais, and ex-Twins manager Ron Gardenhire are said to be candidates for the position, but Heyman hears that Dusty Baker and ex-red Sox catcher Jason Varitek are not candidates at this time.
Murphy is going to be 31 in 2016 and has about zero skills that age well, including dropping from 23 SB in 2013 to just 2 this season. He’s been basically a 2.5 WAR player during the last 5 years, using a small sample like the playoffs is only something a foolish GM would take seriously when committing long term money to. If he gets more than $40M this offseason someone is going to regret it.
Thing is his performance on the biggest stage has made him a much more talked about player, and that alone allows him and his agent to start at a higher asking price than would otherwise have been reasonable. Aside from that I agree with you for the most part.
Murphy will get more than $40M this offseason without a doubt. While he’s on the wrong side of 30 that will prevent him from getting longer than a 4 year deal, but a team will pay him for his 31-34 seasons at better than $10M a pop. His postseason success has put his name on the map, and it’s easy to envision a team like Anaheim giving him a 4yr/$50M deal. They might regret it, but that’s not really that much money when it comes to baseball anymore.
His value is dragged down by his lack of range at second base. If he were to go to a team and play third that problem would be greatly diminished. The Mets can’t do that because of Wright. He would be perfect on the Angels hitting in front of Trout and Pujols.
Davis isn’t going to come close to 200 million. What teams are realistically going to be in the running? If he wants 7 years, he’ll need an AL club and most of those are pretty set at 1B/DH or don’t have that kind of money. Someone will pay him, but not that much.
He would look nice at 1b for Seattle, and they seem to be the foolish enough type to pay him. He would be a huge improvement over Trumbo/Morrison. It would not interfere with them getting more athletic in the OF.
Seattle has too many big contracts on the books already. Don’t see them in play here.
I agree it’s hard seeing Davis get to $200M, but stranger things have happened, and as history proves they only need one foolish owner to make it happen. The reasons against giving him that many years and that much money is that he’s streaky, strikes out too much and isn’t a very good overall player—other than hitting home runs, albeit in a very home-run friendly park. I doubt he stays in Baltimore (Angelos is not paying that much money for anyone), and he’ll have trouble finding someone to pay him that much. When his price comes down there are still few natural fits, but I can see Toronto being in play…especially if they don’t resign Price. They may see Davis as an upgrade over Encarnacion, and the fact that he bats left-handed helps balance the lineup more. He won’t get $200M or 7 years from Toronto, but 6yr/$140-$150ish deal would probably be equitable to both sides.
Toronto will have potentially three openings in their rotation with Price, Buerhle, and Estrada possibly leaving (I don’t see them declining Dickey’s option). If they spend that kind of money on a player, it’s going to be a pitcher.
Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista are free agents after next season.
Astros, Mariners, Redsox, BlueJays, Orioles, Indians, Nationals, Cardinals. There are a lot of potential candidates that could sign Davis. With Boras as his agent you never know. Did anyone think he could land those deals for Andrus, Ellsbury, and Choo?
Power is in such a huge demand, and Davis has 80 grade power coming off a 5 WAR season. While I question 200mil, I dont think its crazy to think he could get 150.
“Did anyone think he could land those deals for Andrus, Ellsbury, and Choo?”
Yes. Lots of people. Choo and Ellsbury got the deals everyone expected. Andrus was an extension, so that was hard to predict, but not surprising either.
Who was expecting Ellsbury to get 155mil? He’s a similar caliber player as Sandoval, who got 95mil, which is around what most people thought Ells would get.
Outside his outliner 2011 season, Ellsbury’s highest single season OPS was .781 and had never hit more than 9hrs. He was heading into his aged 30 season and had also dealt with injures. Most were pegging him for around 90-110mil
Ellsbury was and has always been a more talented player then Sandoval.
Congrats on identifying four teams that have no place to play Davis unless they make moves to free up a spot. The Red Sox, Nationals, Blue Jays and Cardinals have no openings for Davis.
Davis to the Astros. They only have something like $34 million committed for next year, need an upgrade at 1st base, and are pulling some of the fences in this off season.
That would be a complete disaster. The Astros have about 4 guys who profile at first base, in the minors. The FO is smart enough to realize, committing a huge amount of money at the corner infield position has never proven to be a smart investment. Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, Mark Teixeira, have all handcuffed their teams at the back end of the contracts.
If they spend money, it will be on acquiring an expensive bullpen piece via trade, a starter, extending Dallas, and possibly non tendering Castro and signing Matt Wieters.
whoever signs Murphy is going to end up with a poor defensive infielder whose bat wont profile at first, in 2 years…
I know this is about trade rumors but I would take what executives with other teams are saying based on things that people inside the Mets’ organization are telling them. If the Mets can afford him (a big IF), I think there is a good chance you will see Cespedes back next year. He seems like he likes playing in NY, the Mets know that their young hitters will get challenged more with him batting behind them.
It might be wishful thinking. I am usually a strong believer that no player is worth the kind of money he will get but he is one of those guys that does everything well and he has that intangible quality of being able to scare opposing pitchers. I mean there are lots of hitters that can hurt you as a pitcher but Cespedes can make you look really bad. If you can throw a fastball down the middle to try to strike out the guy before him, you are going to.