The Phillies aren’t on anybody’s list to contend next season. They’re currently the worst team in baseball with a 53-83 record. They’ve already “clinched” their third straight losing season, and they would have to win 20 of the final 26 games to get back to where they finished in 2013 and 2014 (73-89). Fans probably don’t even want to see that level of success down the stretch. As it stands, the Phillies are poised to make the first overall selection in the 2016 Rule 4 draft.
Despite all the dismal notes, there are reasons to feel optimistic about the future of the club – perhaps as soon as 2016. The financial problems of the past have been relaxed. Only three players are under contract beyond this season – Ryan Howard, Carlos Ruiz, and Matt Harrison. The trio is owed $46.5MM. Cliff Lee is due a $12.5MM buyout. Domonic Brown is the only arbitration eligible player on the roster. He avoided arbitration for $2.6MM this season and appears to be a non-tender candidate. Even if he’s retained, I doubt he’ll earn more than $3.5MM.
The Phillies will eventually open their war chest. The question is – when? Here are three issues the club should address this winter…
1. Commit to a front office and managerial staff. The first order of business is to complete the transfer of power from current president Pat Gillick to presumed future president Andy MacPhail. The longtime baseball executive is serving in an advisory role, although it is clear the club plans for him to succeed Gillick.
Entering the season, it was very widely assumed that GM Ruben Amaro’s contract would be allowed to lapse at the end of the season. After all, he oversaw the plunge from five straight division titles to this ignominious season. Irresponsible contracts are often blamed for the downfall, but the root of the issue is even simpler – the championship core got old, and reinforcements never arrived.
Per FanGraphs WAR, Howard hasn’t been an above average player since 2009. Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee both broke down before the end of their contracts. Others like Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz, and Shane Victorino suffered predictable age-related decline. Brown, once Baseball America’s number one prospect, never lived up to the hype. He was the only high ceiling prospect to crack the roster between their last contending season and 2014 when Maikel Franco briefly debuted.
It’s easy to blame irresponsible spending and poor roster construction on the GM. And perhaps that’s where we should stop when evaluating Amaro. It’s also hard to know just how much autonomy Amaro possessed. Unsubstantiated rumors suggest that part-owner John Middleton had a hand in several major moves including the acquisition of Halladay, the subsequent trade of Lee, and the extension of Howard. Without insider knowledge, it’s impossible to know what went on behind the scenes.
Amaro has clawed back some personal respectability this season by transforming the farm system via trade. After overseeing a series of bleak drafts, a few top prospects including Aaron Nola, Franco, and J.P. Crawford have emerged. Amaro also patiently turned Cole Hamels, Utley, Rollins, Jonathan Papelbon, Ben Revere, and others into about half of the team’s top 20 prospects. Is overseeing a successful fire sale enough to give Amaro a second chance?
While MacPhail decides on a GM – be it Amaro or a new candidate – he’ll also need to consider managerial choices. The Phillies do have an internal option, interim manager Pete Mackanin. This is the third time he has served as an interim manager, and he has never held the role on a permanent basis. Per Tracy Ringolsby of MLB.com, “scouts have been impressed with the energy the Phillies have shown on the field,” since Mackanin took over. The team is 27-35 under his stewardship and 24-21 over the last 45 games.
2. Find Pitching. Once the roles of club president, GM, and manager are officially staffed, it will be time to work on the roster. The conservative approach would be to organically develop cost controlled talent before making a splash on a few pricey free agents. This is roughly the approach followed by the Nationals. However, other clubs have taken a more aggressive tact. Even the Nationals inked Jayson Werth before they were truly ready to contend.
One thing is clear, the Phillies need pitching. The lineup may lack star power, but there is depth and interesting talent. The same can’t really be said of the pitching staff. Nola appears to be a viable mid-rotation workhorse. Jerad Eickhoff, acquired in the Hamels trade, has pitched well in three starts. Adam Morgan has survived 13 starts with a 4.42 ERA and an ugly 5.33 FIP. Beyond that trio, the internal candidates are all unproven prospects without big pedigrees. Jake Thompson, also part of the Hamels trade, is the only one with a top-of-the-rotation ceiling. Some scouts compare him to Jonathan Papelbon.
External additions are necessary. While the club has as many as seven future big league starters who could help next season, a couple proven innings eaters would greatly help team cohesion while lessening the strain on a shallow bullpen. Philadelphia has the money to dip into the top of the free agent market for a David Price, Zack Grienke, or Johnny Cueto. However, they would have to feel confident about a quick rebuild to make such a substantial investment on a pitcher. Their experiences with Halladay and Lee might cause them to hesitate.
The obvious approach is to find more stopgaps like Aaron Harang and Jerome Williams. Options like Jeff Samardzija, Jordan Zimmermann, Scott Kazmir, and Mike Leake might serve as a compromise between aggression and conservatism. And, of course, the Phillies are well-situated to add buy-low veterans on short-term deals, possibly flipping those that work out at the trade deadline. In my opinion, the team would ideally add three veteran starters. They should also be active on the trade market.
3. Resolve the Howard situation. The Phillies have done everything they can to find a taker for Howard. He’s still a decent hitter against right-handed pitching, slashing .262/.314/.499 this season (119 wRC+). In trade rumors, he’s been tied to the Orioles on multiple occasions. Camden Yards is extremely friendly to left-handed power. If Baltimore fails to re-sign Chris Davis, Howard could offer an inexpensive alternative.
Regardless of what happens, the Phillies will be on the hook for most or all of the remaining $35MM guaranteed to Howard. They’re unlikely to acquire a meaningful prospect in return for him. So why bother with a trade? It’s a matter of opportunity cost.
So long as Howard remains with the club, they aren’t evaluating new options on the major league roster. They could try to acquire a position-less, Quad-A power bat or even trade for a blocked prospect like Dan Vogelbach. Top Korean power hitter Byung-ho Park may be posted this offseason. Howard’s presence on the roster doesn’t stop the club from pursuing these alternatives, but it does reduce the urgency to make a move. And it may block the discovery of a pleasant surprise like Chris Colabello, Danny Valencia, or Justin Bour.
I think the best course of action for a team like the Phillies is to use their money to buy as many prospects as possible. I would stock up on every available type of prospect. Korean, Japanese, Cuban, everything. The amateur draft is capped, but the international draft you can overspend on. I would crank it up and buy as many top prospects as possible. Whenever a team needs to unload a salary, take on that player for a prospect. If a team is trading a player, jump in as a third team to pay the players salary for a prospect. Horde prospects. It doesn’t matter if they are 16 year olds or 22 year olds, horde them. Get as many as possible. Position doesn’t matter. I don’t care if you get 10 top third base prospects. Just horde them and worry about it later.
Once you have a giant basket of prospects, then you can start playing around. You can trade for specific areas of need, you can lock some down to long contracts, move them around the field to try new positions. You get a lot of freedom to do what you want to do when you horde those prospects.
I would focus 100% of my efforts on getting those prospects. All the prospects you can possibly get.
You can’t simply “horde” international prospects and think that’s going to be the way to build your team. For every player that turns into Cespedes or Puig there are 20 who fail. There’s a reason why teams don’t simply spend all their money on the international market; the players aren’t as good as those they can draft…even with a “capped” system.
The idea of “paying” for prospects in trades is a good idea, but isn’t available enough to build a system through. And with the money in the game today there aren’t too many “bad” contracts that would be too enticing for a team to rid themselves of. The only contracts that are truly terrible are either given by teams that would rather pay it than give up prospects (Dodgers/Eithier) or players who can’t be moved without their say so (Pujols, Cano, etc.). With a complete rebuild likely in Cincinnati the Red might be willing to give up some value for someone to take on Votto’s contract, but do you want the Phillies to commit nearly $200M to get a prospect or two? (And I don’t the Reds even give up Votto.) I’d rather them spend that money, and the hoards you suggest on international lottery tickets, on bonafide major league talent who can perform NOW…while we wait for the younger players in the system to develop and continue to draft/sign more.
Braves are currently using the method I just described. As are the Dodgers and Redsox. Hording prospects is a highly effective way to build a team.
The Dodgers are in first place and a world series contender because they spent big money on major league talent. They hit a home run in the regular draft on Kershaw, but then added Greinke as a free agent. They were able to take on those Red Sox contracts—major league players—and sign or draft other veterans for their bullpen, bench and other spots in the lineup. The only international “prospect” that has truly impacted the team is Puig, and it seems they’re just as interested in getting rid of him as they are of keeping him. The Dodgers are not doing well because they “hoarded” prospects but because they have the finances to acquire and keep major league talent. As for the Braves and their hoarding of prospects…they’re quickly catching the Phillies for the worst record in baseball, and there’s no guarantee that any one of the prospects they’ve acquired will even equal one season of what an actual major league player will give them or the Phillies.
Yeah this is true. The talent the Braves have acquired using “this method” is pretty mediocre, or else far away. They may get exactly nothing out of it, and the harder thing to acquire — hitting — they haven’t even started. Bad bad team.
Okay, first off, just because this kinda annoys me, a horde and a hoard are not the same thing. A hoard is a mass of riches. Like, a oile of gold. A horde is a group. You horde prospects. Your horde of prospects might become a hoard of prospects, that would be nice.
Anywho. The Dodgers and Redsox are very clearly hording prospects, there is no way to argue around that. They do everything in their power to get more prospects. And yeah, some prospects fail. That is why you get a horde of them. You get so many that even if 90% fail, you still get 5 or 6 real good players. That is the goal in hording these guys. You can also use them to trade for other pieces if you need to.
Hardly. You’re thinking of one or two examples and extrapolating to these teams “using this method.” They’re not. They have built their system mostly the old-fashioned way.
The Ruf/Howard platoon will continue to be in effect next season. It’s been productive enough to grit your teeth through the $25M hit. Ruf is making peanuts as the other half of the platoon. It’s not ideal but it’s better than having Howard play somewhere else while the Phils are paying most of his money. There’s also nothing overtly exciting in the farm system worth replacing Howard with.
The more important piece to explore if they intend to feign competitiveness next season would be a corner OF slot. If they get the x3 vet starters you are advocating for and one of the elite corner OFs (Cespedes, Upton) they have a shot if all things remain equal with the young core (Nola, Franco, Odubel, Hernandez). My ideal wishlist would be Jordan ZImmermann, Leake/Kazmir, Cespedes and a rebound deal on Fister.
No thanks on Cespedes. If Phillies are spending money on a corner OF, it better be Heyward. I do agree on Zim though
You’d really pay that much over that many years for league average offense? The guy is a great player but not worth what some team is going to offer and not for that many years. Please consider that the Phils are going to have to overpay for any marquee guy to come here. Heyward is not a guy you want to over pay. It should be an offensive powerhouse guy or just let your minor leaguers compete for it. I’d rather see more of Altherr at league minimum than Heyward at some ridiculous AAV contract.
Heyward is going to get overpaid regardless of where he goes, but at least at 26 he could easily fit in with this team. And with his defense, his bat only needs to be good and not great.
Bringing in Cespedes and the $100+ mil he’s going to command at age 30 makes no sense.
I’m not saying the Phillies should definitely overpay for Heyward, just saying he’s a much better investment for them than Cespedes.
You’re not paying just for his offense…
‘defense wins championships’ is a football maxim. In baseball, especially this era of baseball, if you’re gonna spend big, spend it on offense… it’s in short supply.
I’ve seen a few Phillies fans say Franco needs to get to 1B asap
I’ve been one to say that, but it really is sample size. He was apparently atleast average in the minors. He wasn’t good at 3B this year, but I think he’ll stick it out at 3B until a better defensive 3B comes along and you feel comfortable moving him to 1B.
I don’t know what Phillies Games you have been Watching , But this Kid Franco is better at his age ( 22 ) than anything around , the Only thing he doesn’t have is speed, He can Hit ,and for Power and he has a Cannon for an Arm.
Better than anything around? Harper (22yrs) , machado (23), and trout (23), Bryant (23), betts (23), correa (20), and Fernandez (22), are all 20-23 year olds. Franco could be a nice player, certainly could have future all star potential, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
If the Phillies are smart they will dive full-force into this year’s free agent pitching market. Next year’s class is much weaker, and there likely will be more higher end competitors with the Yankees and Dodgers clearing a lot of space, as well as Atlanta moving into a new ballpark and generating more revenue. They should make serious plays for David Price, Zack Greinke and Jordan Zimmerman, with the hopes of landing two. (Anyone who suggests the pitchers won’t sign due to the Phillies circumstances forget that money talks. The Phillies are in a position where they can “overpay” free agents by front-loading contracts, which will both give them an advantage in negotiating and leveraging the hit down the road if they start to break down.)
As for the bats on the market I’d stay away from Upton and Cespedes. Upton is too inconsistent, strikes out way too much and he’s B.J.’s brother…not sure it would be ideal to invest in him. Cespedes is doing great things right now, but he’s never been a “great” player in the same vein that Pujols or Cabrera is, and he’s going to be paid like it. With a good post-season he’ll get $150M+ and probably closer to $200M. No thanks. Jayson Heyward would be my target. He’s young, plays terrific defense, and while he’s not a genuine power hitter, he’s a good hitter. I’d rather had a team of “good hitters” rather than a team of home run or strike out.
If the Phillies sign:
David Price @ $32M/year
Zimmerman @ $20M/year
Heyward @ $23M/year
it’ll move them a long way towards contending next year and into the future, and they’ll still have $50M or so above their self-imposed threshold (although with the new comcast deal, that threshold may change).
Your plan will make the new Phillies look like the old Phillies in 3-4 years. Yes money talks but only when there is a big gap between offers. If, for example, you are going to front load a David Price contract (who will command a 7yr/28-30mill per), you need to pay him 36-40K in the first couple of years. Same for everybody else.
As free agents they will prefer to go where they will have a great chance to win now, not in 3-4 years,(when 1/2 their contracts are over). They won’t take the chance of getting hurt or lose skills that could remove them from “that championship team” 3-4 down the road.
I like your “thinking outside the box’ attitude thou.
I don’t think my idea will put the Phillies in a similar position in 3-4 years. They didn’t get into this position because they proactively spent money—which I think I’m trying to suggest—but because they reactively spent it, along with prospects. I have said it for years, from the day it didn’t happen, that the Phillies biggest failure was not acquiring Halladay the day after the traded for Lee in July ’09. They had the money, the prospects and the need for him, yet ownership was too apprehensive. Had they gotten Halladay too—and likely at a lower cost than it took to acquire him that winter, when Amaro would have had Riccardi over a barrel—the Phillies likely beat the Yankees in the ’09 WS, never dump Lee in December, don’t need to trade for Oswalt six months later, and likely don’t have the dominoes fall the way they do which quickly gutted the system and major league roster.
By signing top-tier players NOW while waiting for younger players to develop they will put themselves into a better long-term position. I suggest front-loading deals to set them apart even if the dollars are similar…Scherzer’s $210M deal is really worth $192M based on how it’s paid. If they give Price $210M, but pay $36-$40M (or more) in the first couple of years it could be worth $230M or $240M, making it more valuable even if another team offers the same money paid like Scherzer, even without the deferment. The Phillies were hurt by the Howard, Lee and Halladay deals because they were backloaded. If the pay for the talent early, on the back end they will be in better position to move them if needed.
Going forward there aren’t going to be as many elite free agents hitting the market. This is one of the last years that money can make the difference on the free agent market.
I like the front loading idea of the contracts myself…. and I have gone back and forth with whether the Phillies should spend big, or even relatively big this offseason.. I;ve settled on staying relatively quiet, with the expecations they will go bannans in the international market and actually draft well again. My reasoning for this is the fact they have so many prospects they need to shake out skill and position wise first. I don’t want them to get stuck with a Thome/Howard situation again. A lot of the current and upcoming proscpects can play multoiple positions: Franco, Alfaro, Knapp, Sweeney, Herrera, etc… The one expection I would consider would be grienke or Price. Thompson, Nola, Eflin, Erickoff, Morgan, and biddle (some combination of them) with Grienke or price would get the pitching taken care of, as well as controllable. Another option is to just wait for Kilome and this years top draft pick, which seems very likely to be a pitcher from all reports. This assumes all the prospects pan out, or most of the pitchers do. Then they would have a young controllable staff and can focus on buying position players or concentrate on trading for position players. The landscape of baseball has seemed to change, pitchers don’t hold the same value that tehy did even a few years ago, so they are going to have to adjust. You could argue that the Phillies should sign grienke/price/etc … and use the top pick on a position player just because of the way the landscape has changed. Everyday players are now the value of old Ace pitchers. I don;t really agree wth it, but thats the trend from the recent returns, or non returns for all the recent trade returns.
There’s no way they get any of those 3 at those prices. They’re not a contending team nor are they they only team with money.
They’ll need to overpay a top player.
“There’s no way they get any of those 3 at those prices. They’re not a contending team nor are they they only team with money.”
That is why I have suggested front-loading the contracts, making them more valuable to the players and the player’s association. Take Scherzer’s contract for example. It’s $210M paid out as $15M over 14 years, which the players association values at $192M. Instead of a value of $31M/years, he’s really only getting $27M/year. So if the Phillies match Scherzer’s deal, but pay $40M per year over the first 4 years of the deal it will be valued much higher. The same type of deals can be made with Heyward and Zimmerman. A player would rather have more money NOW than more money later when inflation lowers its value. And while there are plenty of teams with money these days, the Phillies probably rank third (behind the Yankees and Dodgers) in ability to spend, and they have one of the lowest future commitments in baseball.
Cubs did this with Lester’s deal. It also keeps future payroll free.
Lester’s deal isn’t front-loaded. His deal averages $25M per year…he makes $20M this year, followed by $25M and $27.5M salaries, and one year at $20 at the end. Not exactly the “front-loading” I meant. If Lester’s deal was front-loaded the way I’m suggesting he would be paid $35M the first three years of the deal, then lower, descending salaries in the final three years.
They’d still need to both front load the deal and outpay everyone else. They’re not going all three either. They’ll probably sign one of the top 10 FAs.
I do agree it’s rather unlikely they’ll be able to (or, really will want to) get one of those true ace free agents. But with the glut of mid-rotation starters, they could conceivably target a younger arm and make a compelling offer using that logic and/or wait to see who’s left when the music stops to swoop in and get good value.
They’re certainly in a position to spend if the money’s right. The scenario suggested doesn’t look plausible at all. I see them taking a flier on a guy like Fister, who could get some value at the deadline or a QO if he turns it around.
Why would they take a “flyer” on someone like Fister or second-rate pitchers? What sense does that make, looking at the long-term future of FA’s? Don’t spend money now on Price or Cueto or Zimmerman…wait until next year and you can spend that money on Jon Niese. Yeah, that sounds like a plan.
To me it’s like saying “Mike Trout is a free agent this year, but we’re not ready to win, so let’s let him sign elsewhere, and next year when we are ready to win we’ll go sign Cameron Maybin”.
Why would they need to “outpay” everyone else if they are the only ones paying the majority of the money upfront? Money today is more valuable than money tomorrow, meaning it’s MORE already. But I doubt they’d get all three; I’d be surprised if they didn’t sign at least two premiere free agents though.
Zimmerman is not going to sign for only 20 mil a year. Zimm is going to get a comparable contract to what grienke got in 2013. I’ll be honest, if I had to choose between Zimmerman and grienke (assuming I had to give them identical contracts) I’d prob go with Zimmerman. He’s not as flashy as grienke, but he is more even day in and day out.
“He’s not as flashy as grienke, but he is more even day in and day out”
Zack Greinke? The guy who’s been arguably the best pitcher in baseball this year? Yeah, Zimmerman is better. Zimmerman will likely get a longer-term contract, but Greinke will get a higher AAV. What do you think Zimmerman is going to get? $24M AAV? 6 years, $144M? He’s not as good as Lester who got $155 and is left-handed (who get paid more, as history shows).
“It’s also hard to know just how much autonomy Amaro possessed. Unsubstantiated rumors suggest that part-owner John Middleton had a hand in several major moves including the acquisition of Halladay, the subsequent trade of Lee, and the extension of Howard. Without insider knowledge, it’s impossible to know what went on behind the scenes.”
A great point.
With salaries and their length what they are, the accepted concept that the GM makes all decisions on direction and transactions in a unilateral manner is no longer valid for most franchises. In addition to input from staff, GM’s now have presidents and sometimes multiple people in ownership and the hierarchy that they have to listen to. Some of that has been documented through interviews and books after the fact when participants feel free to discuss it. Mainly due to the money involved, MLB is becoming more complicated by the day. One friend opened my eyes the other day by commenting that most players, agents, managers, coaches, FO people and everyone involved in the sport are now openly positioning themselves for the next team / job / contract / promotion / raise. The money is making the concept of team a secondary consideration.
I think De Fratus will be Arb eligible this offseason as well. Anyway, if the Pirates don’t call up Vance Worley and he becomes a minor league free agent, they should pursue him. He’s underrated.
Wasn’t it Montgomery- not Middleton- linked to the Howard and other large contracts? Montgomery has been pushed to the side. Big difference for future outlook.
Montgomery was the ex-team pres.
Middleton is the majority owner.
edit; But yes, I think you’re right about Montgomery.
I’d stay away from Heyward/Upton because of the QO.
Leake is 26. His ceiling on contract would be 5/90M, and that might be pressing it a bit. So many you look into that a bit.
Look for guys who want rebuilding deals ex: Fister, Latos, Lohse, Norris, etc.
You’ll have Nola, Harrison, Morgan and Eickoff for the rotation next year.
The 5th spot will come down to Thompson and Eflin, who both have pretty good ceilings. Then you have Asher, Buch, Severino Gonzalez, rebuilding FAs and Jesse Biddle who can all start at the MLB level, however probably not give you the greatest of results.
I’d stay away from position player FAs.
You have young depth at every position, see who can play and who can’t, then make decisions from there.
C: Rupp, Alfaro, Knapp
1B: Stassi, Ruf
2B: Hernandez, Kingery, Sweeney
SS: Galvis, Crawford
3B: Franco, Asche
LF: Asche, Altherr, Williams
CF: Herrera, Williams, Altherr, Quinn, Sweeney
RF: Williams, Altherr, Sweeney
SP: Nola, Morgan, Thompson, Eflin, Buchanan, Gonzalez, Asher, Eickoff, Lively, etc.
Lets see who can play out of these guys, then go for the FA/trades.
The QO shouldn’t prevent the Phillies from pursuing Jayson Heyward. He’s 26 years old, a good hitter and an elite defender. I think that’s worth giving up a second round pick for (their first rounder, barring an unbeaten finish, is protected).
“Look for guys who want rebuilding deals ex: Fister, Latos, Lohse, Norris, etc.”
Why? Then what are they going to do next year when they again need pitching, but there is a lack of it on the market? Next year’s free agent class has one “elite” pitcher in it (Strasburg), whom I wouldn’t touch, especially at the money he’ll be commanding. The next best pitcher is Jon Niese. I’d rather them overpay this year for a guy like Price or Cueto (perhaps both) than wait and have to settle for second tier talent. They have the money…why not use it? It’s not like they’re going to decide to make tickets free if they don’t spend it.
“You’ll have Nola, Harrison, Morgan and Eickoff for the rotation next year.”
But those guys will face less pressure if they have a bonafide ace atop them in the rotation. How much better was everyone in the rotation—from Cole to Worley—when Halladay joined them? You can never have too much talent, and the Phillies have the money.
Your whole premise is from the Phillies perspective only. Try this as an example: Price has an offer of 7/210 from a playoff team that is a great bet to be a World Series contender without him in 2016.You are the Phillies GM. What do you say to Price to convince him that going to the Phillies is better for HIM? Why would he be willing to wait(at age 30 now) 3-4 years and risk injury. Price is also in a position as a FA to insist on a no trade clause.
He wants a World Series ring and its worth more to him than an extra $20-30mill when he is making $210mill. The same logic goes for any FA 30 or older.
Their best bet is to do what Brixton said about getting some guys on 1 year deals who are looking to build themselves up for a bigger payday. Phillies will have first crack on them after that.
“He wants a World Series ring and its worth more to him than an extra $20-30mill when he is making $210mill. The same logic goes for any FA 30 or older.”
Name one player who signed for $20M-$30M less, regardless of total contract size, for the opportunity to win? You’re entire premise is based on the idea that players are in it to win and not make money, when history has proven that the only thing that matters is money.
Max Scherzer signed with the Nationals for $210M over 14 years (the payout structure). The Nationals already had the talent to win the World Series without him, so he’s going somewhere he can win right away. However, if the Phillies offered him the same $210M, but instead of paying him $42M the first three years of the deal, they were will to pay $120M ($40M per year), where would he have signed? The actual dollars don’t change, the luxury tax implications don’t change, the only thing that changes is the value of those dollars.
The only two players I know of who took “less money” were Cliff Lee—and most of the $10M or so less he took from the Phillies that the Yankees were offering would have been eaten up in New York taxes and cost of living expenses—and Andre Dawson whose knees couldn’t take playing on astroturf anymore. Otherwise every player I know of, when given the opportunity, has signed for the most money—and THEN talked about what a great opportunity it is to play for an organization that has a great plan in place to win.
You need to stop looking at it as a bubble gum card trade with made up numbers. I used the $20-30 mill from your $230-240mill statement. They are not signing for $20-30 mill less, you picked those numbers as a present value of a 7 year front loaded deal.
My premise is based on the fact that the FA holds all the cards and you still have not given “him” a reason to sign with a last place club that has little hope of a winning season in the next 1-2 years. He has an offer with a playoff club that will be a strong favorite to play in the World Series NEXT year, not maybe in 3-4 years. Forget the numbers, they will be close to equal. What will the GM say to convince him to play for a cellar dweller?
“My premise is based on the fact that the FA holds all the cards and you still have not given “him” a reason to sign with a last place club that has little hope of a winning season in the next 1-2 years.”
MONEY. Playing the money upfront and early in the contract makes it more valuable, and therefore more money. Players sign for money first, winning second. History has proven that. Sometimes they get both. Zack Greinke was the one player who had the guts to say it. He signed with the Dodgers because they offered the most money, but had a last place team offered him more he would have signed there, because at the end of the day it’s mostly (probably like 98%) about the MONEY.
Players don’t normally divulge what the non-winning offers were during their FA processes. I’m sure guys turn down a little more to take a good fit all the time.
But it usually comes out in the media anyway. And from everything that’s ever been written, suggested, implied or flat out stated…players almost always go for the MONEY. Very rare they sign for less to be happy. And besides, if they did the player’s association would be all over them.
One thing that we all ought to remember is more prospects bust than bloom. While Odubel, Cesar, Nola, Franco, Morgan, Eickhoff and Giles all look so far so good, don’t rely on guys like Quinn, Altherr, Sweeney, Lively, Eflin, Windle, Biddle or even guys who look like sure things Williams or Crawford, to be guaranteed.
The top 3 prospects in baseball in 2013 were Profar, Bundy and Tavares, and all three have had unfortunate circumstances preventing them from reaching their potential.
Kingery (low A), Crawford, Thompson, Eflin, Alfaro, Knapp, Williams, Quin (all AA), Biddle (AAA and struggling) all need substantial work. Most probably won’t see the majors next year…maybe a couple might see a post-all star break or September call up, but here is no reason to sacrifice their development and rush them to the majors.
I disagree with the last sentence of the 1st paragraph: “As it stands, the Phillies are poised to make the first overall selection in the 2016 Rule 4 draft.”
Watching the Braves recently makes me thing it’s there’s to lose (or win depending how you look at it). I don’t understand why they’re so bad with 2 good arms (Miller, Teheran despite his down year), some growing young arms (Foltynewicz, Wisler), and a lineup that still has some good bats (Freeman, Maybin, Markakis, Swisher, Simmons). But man they look atrocious. It still doesn’t make sense to me, but they’re playing some awful looking baseball right now.
Edit: And no, I’m not actually complaining about that sentence. What’s really sad is that the 5 worst teams in baseball are all from the NL (and it was 6 a few days ago), with the 3 worst being in the same division. Yikes
This. They may not even get #2. Reds are collapsing fast.
Yeah they are. The Phillies schedule has 6 games left against the Marlins and 6 against the Braves. The Reds have a murderer’s row type of schedule to end the season: 7 vs STL, 6 vs PIT, 3 vs Cubs, 4 vs the Mets, 3 vs SF, 3 vs MIL, and 1 vs WAS. 20 games vs probable playoff teams. Go Reds!
As a Lifetime Phillies fan , Spend Money on Young Talent that can grow , They have some Very Good Young Players that can be expected to come together in couple of Years , then add a Quality Free Agent Player, If they do spent this off season get Pitching , esp. relief their Bull pen sucks,( except for Giles )