As we’ve already done with the Rockies, Diamondbacks, and Phillies, we’re going through those clubs whose primary attention has turned to setting up for future seasons to identify their three most pressing strategic needs. Up today: the Reds.
Cincinnati is mired in last place in a hyper-competitive NL Central, looking up (along with the Brewers) at three teams that seem primed to remain high-quality outfits for years to come. With Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, and Marlon Byrd already shipped out over the summer, what are the key areas for the Reds to focus on over the coming months?
1. Maximize the value of Aroldis Chapman. Chapman is reasonably young (27), durable, and utterly dominant (16.0 K/9 vs. 4.6 BB/9 with a 1.73 ERA on the year). He’s one of the few relievers in all of baseball that looks like a relatively sure thing to provide serious impact to a contender. And the Reds, despite some signs of promise around the diamond, seem a poor bet to leapfrog the Cardinals, Pirates, and Cubs (or a host of theoretical non-divisional Wild Card competitors) to make a serious run at the postseason next year.
It’s hard to trade an exciting and popular player whose job is to ensure that your club wins the games it should by locking down the ninth in spectacular fashion. But those are the kinds of decisions that teams — especially those with limited payroll flexibility, like Cincinnati — need to make to set themselves up for future success. The Braves did it last year with Craig Kimbrel, and the case for a trade is even stronger here given that Chapman will hit free agency after 2016.
It’s arguable that the Reds should have taken the best offer at this year’s deadline, when contenders were lining up for the Cuban Missile, but that opportunity has passed. GM Walt Jocketty and his staff now need to determine whether to shop Chapman this winter or instead to roll the dice on waiting for next year’s trade deadline.
2. Free up payroll space. When the Braves moved Kimbrel, they did so in large part to rid themselves of the tens of millions owed to Melvin Upton. The team also managed to add a useful pitching prospect and hit the lottery on salary-balancing throw-in Cameron Maybin, but the deal was primarily motivated by payroll considerations. Cincinnati has its share of long-term commitments, too, and while some look better than others, the club would do well to begin clearing the books for the future — possibly by utilizing some creative packaging arrangements.
Looking forward, the Reds’ priciest asset is star first baseman Joey Votto, the franchise face who has turned back into himself in 2015. He’s not at all likely to be moved, though perhaps Cincinnati should be open to it if blown away by an offer. But big dollars are also promised to second baseman Brandon Phillips ($27MM over two years) and righty Homer Bailey ($86MM over four years, plus a mutual option buyout). And then there’s outfielder Jay Bruce, who will earn $12.5MM next year and comes with a $13MM club option for 2017, and third baseman Todd Frazier, who is promised $7.5MM for 2016 and will presumably line up for another nice arbitration increase in his final season of eligibility. Add in commitments to younger players like Devin Mesoraco and Raisel Iglesias, and the organization has a rather large portion of its future spending capacity already committed to a relatively small number of players.
As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained yesterday, parting with Phillips may be the place to start. He has played well this year and could be replaced by Eugenio Suarez, who would pair up the middle with a recovering Zach Cozart. It’s largely inconceivable that the team will be able to do anything with Bailey until he’s had a chance to return to health, but that could be a goal as time goes on. The more difficult questions arise with regards to Bruce and Frazier, both of whom are affordable enough but who may not be controlled long enough to play for another Cinci contender. While extensions are theoretically possible, both are close enough to free agency that the price would be steep, and the Reds would run the risk of buying up post-prime years. Freeing cash to acquire and/or extend other, younger players — while adding significant prospects in return — may be the wiser course. Though it would sting in the short run, the Reds would gain added flexibility to meet needs and act on opportunities when they arise.
3. Bolster the bullpen. This may seem like an odd idea at first glance, given that I just finished suggesting the club consider dealing away several productive regulars as well as a lights-out closer. But there’s a possible strategy here that may ease the pain of rebuilding while adding some reasonably-priced upside to the team’s assets.
We’ve seen several clubs promise rotation spots to bounce-back rotation candidates on short-term deals, filling innings in the meantime and in some cases providing an opportunity to cash in at the trade deadline. (See, e.g., the Cubs’ deals with Scott Feldman and Jason Hammel.) Jocketty has acquired a range of quality pitching prospects who are ready to be tried in the rotation, reducing the need and the capacity for that particular strategy. But something analogous could be done with the relief corps, which has been rather uninspiring — at least, before the 9th inning. Indeed, that’s more or less what the Braves did last winter in adding Jason Grilli and Jim Johnson, and the Reds could follow suit.
Particularly if Cincinnati parts with Chapman this winter, it will have several attractive late-inning opportunities open in its pen. As high-priced late-inning relievers shake loose over non-tender season, the market will be flooded with arms — Steve Cishek and Addison Reed are two potential names that come to mind — all of whom won’t have a chance to work high-leverage innings for contenders. Signing a few such options should be quite reasonable, especially if the organization can move some contracts in the meantime, and those players would help secure winnable games, ease the burden on the team’s young starting staff, and offer the potential to morph into valuable deadline chips at the time when relievers achieve the greatest trade value.
A related approach could even be applied as the team considers prospect targets and develops its own pitchers. Cincinnati has a history of taking chances on quality arms that many believed would ultimately be ticketed for the pen (Chapman, Tony Cingrani, Nick Howard), and could seek to achieve value by doing so further via trade. Indeed, one could argue that the team did just that with the pitchers it added in its recent deals, all of whom could profile as future relievers. Those that aren’t excelling as starters could be moved quickly into the big league pen, setting the organization up for a cheap and high-quality future outfit and/or being spun off via trade.
ronnsnow
How much sense would Joey Votto to the Red Sox make if they’re able to ship Hanley somewhere?
Jeff Todd
I’d have been stunned under the old administration, but with Dombrowski in town, who knows? I think there are teams that would be interested, as Votto is an amazing player, but I’ve not yet gotten the sense from any Reds reporters that there is any real consideration of a trade.
redsneck
I’d think it would be highly unlikely that the Reds would move Votto at least until their new TV contract is signed. They have already taken a decent hit to their ratings due to poor play but trading away their most popular player would certainly not help their contract negotiations. I believe their current deal expires at the end of 2017. Seems like many in the Cincy meedia believe that a deal will be reached sometime next year. After that who knows.
User 4245925809
I don’t see Dombrowski even wanting to take on nearly 25m annually for a 1b over the next 8y. Way to much for a 1b until the age of 40.
They can fill the position internally for a few years if need be should the Ramirez experiment fail, with Sandoval moving to 1st, Holt to 3b, Devers to 3b in a couple of years.. They have multiple kids a couple of years away who are options for the left side.
monroe_says
Didn’t he just do that very thing with Miguel Cabrera?
bruinsfan94 2
Cabrera was already a fan favorite in Detroit so it was a good marketing move.Cabrera is also a generational player.He has had a better career then Votto.
sigurd 2
Votto has a better career WRC+ than Cabrera. Votto (157) Cabrera (153). Also, Votto has only 20 less war than Cabrera with half as many plate appearances and games played. Hard to say Cabrera is having / has had a better career than Votto.
fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&…
Vandals Took The Handles
And that is why I look at statistics, but don’t swear by them.
Votto is a very good player. Miggy changes the way opposing pitchers, catchers, managers and pitching coaches, elect to work all other players in the Tigers order around Miggy. All those players get better pitches to hit. The same way the Mets batting order changed when Cespedes joined the team.
redsneck
The best example of the Reds recent success turning a bullpen arm into a reliable SP is probably what they did with Alfredo Simon.
sigurd 2
Most important need missing from this list: a new GM.
packy
Jeff,
Great article. All valid points. I’ve been covering the Reds since 1999 and I can tell you this isn’t the first or last time this organization has been through this unrelenting “rut”. The question is now what will they do to pull themselves out of it?
First off I see no other option but to dump both Bruce and Chapman. It’s imperative. I think it’s absurd (and I do not know the exact details of what happened, maybe you do) but if the Walt Jocketty and co. got cold feet in trading Jay Bruce for Zach Wheeler — shame on them! You might not get another deal like that —- well…..ever! I don’t know where your going to get a young, potential front of the line starting pitcher like that for a player of Bruce’s sub-par caliber. It’s absolutely inexcusable if the organization passed on that deal, I can promise you it won’t be on the table come December.
Bruce needs to go — he’s a luxury side item for a team that can’t win. He’s affordable, controllable and capable of filling a multitude of needs for deficient hitting club looking to contend in 2016.
Whatever poker face Jocketty had on during the trade deadline apparently switched when he asked for the world in exchange for Aroldis Chapman, as one rival GM put it…”The Reds asking price for Chapman was outrageously absurd”. So on one end Jocketty underplayed his hand with Bruce and overplayed it with Chapman. Sounds like a GM who knows how to rebuild! Maybe what this club really needs is a new GM?
Bottom line: Bruce, Chapman, Phillips all need to go. It’s time. A smart GM would explore options for Frazier, but Jocketty isn’t well versed enough in rebuilding to do that. This team needs payroll flexibility and absolutely fierce development if they plan on contending as soon as 2017. There are enough blocks here to start in Votto, Mesoraco, Iglesias, Stephenson. The club needs to find a way to push the development in the minor leagues and get players like Hamilton developing faster otherwise it’ll be another 11 years before this franchise is back playing meaningful games in October.
1963reds
Good article Jeff and hats off to packy’s comment. The idea of trading Votto is not feasible from the Reds standpoint. They are going to need a player to represent them and draw in fans during the lean rebuild years and who better than a top hitter like Votto. No way they are going to compete with the likes of the Cubs, Pirates and the hated Cards in the next 2 years, so why not build the team around the young pitchers, Votto, Mesoraco, Suarez and trade Phillips, Bruce, Chapman and Frazier. Yes, trade Frazier now while he is a hot commodity because by the time the Reds are relevant again he will be in his decline years. The Reds should get a very nice haul of players for Chapman and Frazier. They may get 1 serviceable player for Bruce and I’d take whatever I could get for Phillips in order to dump his salary. I would also like to see change in both Price and Jocketty. Price is not a major league manager and needs to stick to pitching coach. Jocketty is too old school and really dropped the ball this past trade deadline with Chapman and Bruce. I would also like to see the owner Bob Castellini to stay out of baseball decisions and stick to collecting his money. He is a huge reason the Reds are in the predicament they are in now. He OK’d bad, over payed contracts to Phillips (even though Dat Dude didn’t think he got enough) and Bailey (a .500 pitcher – so he threw 2 no hitters that’s only 2 wins). This franchise needs a shakeup, they are beginning to look like the Bengals management…. stay the status quo, don’t make any changes to better the team, if you sign a free agent make sure he is cheap and at the end of his career and either bring back old players you once had or just keep the same ones year in and year out… in other words the ol’ status quo!