In this week’s MLBTR Mailbag, Steve Adams opined that it might take a 13-year, $375MM offer — or more — for the Nationals to make a serious run at extending outfielder Bryce Harper. That number factors in an estimated $36MM over two seasons of arbitration eligibility (2017-18) and then eleven more years at a $31MM AAV. A contract of that magnitude would be enough to best Giancarlo Stanton’s 13-year, $325MM deal (which also included a significant opt-out provision).
That’s an immense amount of cash, but Harper is about to cap a 10 WAR season at just 22 years of age. The Scott Boras client will hit the open market before he turns 26 years of age, and would have more or less unprecedented earning capacity if he maintains anything approaching his current level of production.
To put things in some perspective, in addition to the Stanton deal, consider the Tigers’ extension of Miguel Cabrera. At the time, Cabrera was set to enter his age-31 season after a huge 2013 campaign that capped a sustained run of excellence at the plate. He was already controlled for two years and $44MM, but the club added another eight seasons and $248MM on top of that (along with two vesting options at $30MM a pop). The AAV of the extension is $31MM, the same amount that Steve theorized for Harper.
While there’s no indication that Harper and the Nats are talking, or have plans to do so, it’s interesting to consider what it might take to get something done. It’s conceivable, of course, that the parties could consider a different type of deal — Mike Trout’s six-year, $144.5MM extension provides another model altogether — but a maximum value scenario seems more plausible.
Adding eleven free agent seasons at a $20MM average annual value would push Harper past $250MM. At $24MM annually, the total guarantee would be an even $300MM. Or, if you think that Steve is light, and Harper could take down $35MM a year over his free-agent-eligible campaigns, we’d be staring at a $421MM tab.
Assuming the scenario that Steve proposed — two arb years plus eleven more — what kind of cash do you think would be fair and adequate compensation to get a 13-year deal done? Remember, you can discuss in the comments or join the debate over on Instagram.
I think the poll question is a bit odd. If the question is, “How much is Harper worth?” then my answer would have to be less than $250MM. However, if the question is, “How much do you think Harper will sign for?” then my answer would have to be $375MM or more. Boras won’t settle for anything that’s not higher than Stanton’s contract.
I was sloppy in entering it in the poll. I’m asking what a realistic extension value is, as I phrased it in the last para.
If Steve Adams’s contract numbers are close to an eventual contract, then it appears like Harper’s about to be overpaid… MLB has a bad habit of paying players based on the previous year’s production, believing he will repeat it consistently. Well only a handful of players can while remaining durable. This is the only year Harper has put together ridiculous numbers while completing the season relatively injury free.
Harper will be lucky to be a 10+ WAR player every year, while hitting 40+ HRs every year. Sabermetrics tell us he probably won’t. He’s had some incredible luck, averaging a .382 BABIP, .330 ISO, and 27.9% HR/FB rate. However, he’s not the true five tool guy. He is not a threat to steal bases and is a marginal defender. Sabermetrics show us he has a -3.0 UZR this year, and a -1.1 for his career.
Defenders will argue that because of Harper’s age, paying him for his services now is rational because he will be in his prime for years, even if the output isn’t the same. And I’ll agree with that to an extent, but one year doesn’t define a career. And going by his averages, it’s not worth the amount Stanton is paid. But if he shows next year that this year wasn’t a fluke, then he can easily be paid at least Stanton money.
Regardless, I can easily see Boras working a deal similar to Trout’s deal if he can’t get the Nationals to bite on a Stanton type deal.
I’d say there is 0 chance he signs an extension like Trout. It’s either Stanton+ or FA.
Lots of weird comments. Harper is a generational talent. The only 22 YO in history who had a better offensive year than Harper is having is Ted Williams. Only 18 players have ever had an OPS+ of over 200. He’s not having a great year. He’s having one of the best offensive seasons ever…and he’s doing it as a 22 YO. That is remarkable. And people claiming this is some fluke. Look at Harper’s career. His OPS+ for his CAREER is in the Albert Belle, Jim Thome, Lance Berkman, Edgar Martinez range and he’s years away from being at his peak. He’s very likely going to be an elite hitter for about the next 12 years.Comparing him with names like Dominic Brown and Jason Heyward? Please..
Generational talent is quite a hyperbole, especially after one season. How quickly you forget names like Pujols, Cabrera, Trout, Goldschmidt, Stanton, McCutchen, Machado, etc…. All players who have established themselves for being great as opposed to Harper who has put together one ridiculous year.
The focus on his age is rather jaded. He’s been in the league four years already. Any player who has been in MLB that long has a good chance of improving, so his age really isn’t as vaunted as some would believe.
Obviously his OPS+, OPS, BA, BB, etc or any other metric you’ll measure is skewed thanks to the miraculous year he’s having. So yes, one year without further proof is a fluke. You’re going to look very foolish when he regresses back to the norm. Sabermetrics don’t lie.
“This is the only year Harper has put together ridiculous numbers while completing the season relatively injury free.”
Well, yes, that’s because he’s 22 freaking years old.
What’s your point Joe? Him being 22 does not explain his relatively injury free season nor his numbers…
I didn’t vote. I’m in the camp that these long contracts are going to kill some franchises in the near future. There will come a player that will get this kind of deal and then sustain a career ending injury early on which will decimate the team’s ability to maneuver well. Sure, the club will have the contract insured, but they won’t get the full return through that and they’ll also use it as a bargaining chip with the fan base as to why they won’t do anything similar in the near future.
More teams should have limits to the amount of years they are willing to give. Of course, then we’ll get the cry of collusion from MLBPA.
I think you miss the point that TV money has just gone bonkers recently. The lesser franchises are not going to be in the Harper shopping list anyway and the big franchises have more money than you think.
Also note that most if not all big contracts have considerable insurance against CEI. I’m not saying that it wouldn’t hurt a franchise but baseball is not that fragile
I missed no point. I get yours, but i hold to my opinion. Money does dry up at times. Markets crash, teams make bad investments in other ways(see Mets owners) and of course my original point in that the possibility of a bad/unfortunate long term player investment.
I never said baseball, as a whole, is fragile in any way, but there are individual teams that are. The Rays, A’s & Marlins for example. Yes, both the Rays & A’s could be fortified with a move elsewhere and/or a new stadium deal, but those are iffy propositions to say the least. The Marlins are pretty much entrenched with their new ballpark, but attendance isn’t exactly stable there.
It’s an ugly Marlins ballpark, but only in Miami could the Marlins play
I don’t think any team would commit this kind of money over that term without substantial insurance on the downside. It doesn’t help if he becomes a consistent 2 WAR player, but it at least covers you if he breaks his leg and can’t play.
Well over 400 ~ What seems to be once-a-decade talent with the right agent at a pre-prime age.
I’m not sure how you can call him a once-a-decade talent when Mike Trout, who does what Harper is currently doing, only he does it every year, exists. Twice-a-decade?
No way Boras let’s Harper sign anything before his walk year. My guess is he’ll be in right field at Yankee Stadium opening day 2019.
Hate to say it, but I totally agree.
I’d guess Dodger Stadium. They only have $38 million on the books come 2019.
Obviously he deserves more than Stanton, but I still argue that stanton’s contract was too lucrative since there is too much of that money caught up in projecting what he will be, not what he is… Miguel cabrera’s contract I understand because of the MVP numbers he’s put up the past, but his age will make his contract rough at the back end. Harper’s tough because I’d like to see one more year of MVP type numbers before guaranteeing him 375M.
I’d like to see his numbers repeated for multiple years before we start giving him 300m+.
Harper isn’t even the best player in MLB right now (he is having the best season).
Imagine if someone gave Dom Brown a huge deal after his solid 2013 season.
Brown was a former top prospect who every expected to be a star who had 1 really good year (granted not on the scale of Harper),
Even accounting for scale, Brown was 25 and had a history of below-average big league numbers when he finally put up a good year. Harper has three seasons before this age-22 year of well-above-average production (121 OPS+). And while I know Brown was a very highly-rated prospect, he never had quite the talent grades put on Harper. Bottom line, I think it’s much easier to buy into.
I guess I’m just not buying into giving a one-in-a-life-time type of contract to a player whos only had 1 great year.
That said, I’m against giving any baseball player over 7 years, I think its just a bad idea.
Certainly a fair opinion to hold.
I don’t think it’s projecting. Stanton and Harper have established very high ceilings. Sustaining is another matter, but the talent has been put into production in both cases.
It’s going to take $400 million.
It is either 400 MM or he goes to FA. Boras could realistically look for a 14 year 400 MM dollar contract, probably with an opt-out after 4-5 year, when Harper hits FA if he keeps hitting. Up to the Nats to decide if that is wise but that is what it will take.
A $28M/AAV wouldn’t get it done. I doubt anything shy of something really stupid would. Harper will enter free agency as soon as possible, and then sign with the Yankees.
Factor out the predicted 41M$ that he would make through his final 3 years he’s team controlled and that contract is an extension of 11 years at 360M or an AAV of ~33M. I think that gets it done, especially with an opt out after 6 years included. In fact I think 14yr/~370M$ gets it done, he could break his neck before reaching FA – no reason to risk that haul (the largest contract ever).
I don’t see Harper signing a long-term extension with Washington unless the numbers get REALLY crazy…like $40M/year. He and Boras want to go to free agency as perhaps the biggest chip that’s ever been there. And he seems to want to be a Yankee. I’d guess they try to get something done, but at the end of the day he plays till his free agency, then signs with the Yankees for ridiculous money.
Career-highs in GIDP, SO, and triples… trash season
Seems like signing 26yr old Heyward at 1/3rd or less of the contract value is a much better risk/reward proposition with a somewhat comparable WAR. Look for St. Louis to do that and stay on top… as usual.
Somewhat comparable WAR?
Harper: 9.8 WAR
Heyward: 5.1 WAR
A Mike Trout type of contract would perfect for Harper because he’d be 28. Untapped prime years left and $140M+ in the bank.
Practically, I’d rather let him go sign elsewhere and sign three $100 million players. No way he earns that contract.
12yrs, $400MM. And I think that would be a bargain. He’ll be an 11WAR player this year, so theoretically worth $70MM this season, not including his marketing value. $33MM/season would require 1/2 the performance on average as this year, and given how in 12 years, he’d only be 34, I’d definitely be willing to bet on that.
Meanwhile, I understand Boras prefers to go to FA, but how could he and Harp turn down 400 freaking million dollars 3 years prior to FA. If a deal gets done, it will happen this offseason before FA gets too close.
Why is everyone assuming 11, 12, 14 year contracts?? Where did this ridiculous number of years come from? Any consideration of risk? More likely he gets more AAV for less years. Not going to compare this to Mr. Art Investor Loria.