In last week’s MLBTR Mailbag, some of the topics included a theoretical Bryce Harper extension (which spawned a subsequent poll and Instagram debate) as well the impact of Jerry Dipoto’s departure on the Angels, the Twins’ offseason, Jedd Gyorko as a shortstop option, Chris Davis’ chances of re-signing in Baltimore and Kyle Kendrick’s future.
Here are this week’s questions, with a reminder that you can submit questions for the mailbag at any time throughout the week via email (mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com) …
“Ray Searage and rest of the Pirates’ staff have consistently turned around struggling starting talent (Liriano, Volquez, Burnett, Happ). Who are possible 2016 projects that could be brought into the rotation?” — Robb W.
Mat Latos is the first guy I think of when I think “Pirates reclamation project.” He’s obviously a highly talented arm and showed even this season that he could still dominate, with an excellent June/July showing that led the Dodgers to trade for him in the first place. Latos has injury problems, to be sure, but he’s still young and had a season catastrophic enough that a one-year deal seems perfectly plausible. And, if you’re a pitcher looking for a one-year deal, why wouldn’t you want to go work with Searage and Jim Benedict in Pittsburgh? I like that fit quite a bit.
One thing going against Latos is that the Pirates have often targeted ground-ball pitchers in the past, and that’s not him. Mike Pelfrey would be a low-cost option who does fit that description. I’d also expect an effort to re-sign Happ, who has been brilliant since the trade but is a bit old for a first-time free agent and doesn’t have a lengthy track record. Those factors can keep him in Pittsburgh’s price range.
“Is Carlos Beltran a Hall of Famer with his current credentials? If so, what team’s cap makes the most sense for him on his plaque? I am curious since Beltran didn’t seem to be associated with one specific team during his career.” — Dan C.
I think Beltran will (or should) end up in the Hall of Fame, yes. There might be some who consider him a fringe candidate now, but he’ll play at least another season, if not one or two more, in an effort to boost his counting stats, for voters who are particularly concerned with round numbers and milestones. Some might think he’s done accumulating meaningful production, but since May 1, Beltran’s hitting .295/.355/.504 with 18 homers. There’s still life in his bat, and Beltran is going to eventually retire with 400-plus homers, 300-plus steals, 1500-plus runs and RBIs, 70ish wins above replacement and an excellent postseason track record.
I think the Mets make the most sense for him in terms of caps, as he played more games for them than any other franchise and had a few of his best seasons in Queens.
“Which managers do you think will be in the hot seat next week when the season ends?” — Justin B.
Lots of questions like this one this week, so a quick rundown. Matt Williams, I’d imagine, will be out the door for the Nationals. We know Dan Jennings isn’t going to return as the Marlins’ manager as well. The Reds’ underperformance and Bryan Price’s ill-conceived tirade against the Cincinnati media is enough for me to think the Reds will move on as well. I could see both Pat Murphy (Padres) and Walt Weiss (Rockies) being let go in the NL West.
Turning to the AL, I don’t think any of the East skippers are in peril, though Torey Lovullo won’t manage the team, most likely. It’ll be John Farrell or a replacement, which is an awkward situation for the Red Sox, given Farrell’s health. The only candidate that could go in the AL Central would be Robin Ventura, but White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf is a big fan. Still, he has to be listed as a consideration, as the team has never really won under him and didn’t live up to the hype this year. In the West, I can see Lloyd McClendon going. Jerry Dipoto may want to bring in his own guy, and the team fell way short of expectations this season.
“Tigers closer, April 2016: Bruce Rondon? Neftali Feliz? Someone not currently in the organization?” — Mark S.
After his 2015 struggles and the embarrassing manner in which he was sent home, I can’t see any way Rondon is closing games in Detroit from day one next season. Feliz has been awful and will almost certainly be non-tendered. I’ll be stunned if Detroit’s closer in 2016 isn’t an offseason acquisition. Al Avila has seen the bullpen’s struggles first-hand over the past few years and will want to make a good impression on ownership and the fans by working to correct it.
“In the last few years, the Astros have unloaded pretty much every expendable MLB player and have relied heavily on the draft to reboot their farm system. Those efforts have come to fruition perhaps a bit earlier than expected, as the team is competing for a playoff spot. Because the Astros have very few long-term commitments (potential extensions for guys like Correa and Springer notwithstanding), do you think it’s possible Houston is a big player in the free agent market this offseason? Maybe go after an ace, such as David Price?” — Nathan B.
I do think they’ll be linked to top-of-the-market names, yes. Houston made a run at Cole Hamels this summer, and while they might not be able to afford Price or convince him to come to Houston (Hamels, after all, vetoed the notion of going there), the dearth of long-term financial commitments on the Astros’ ledger works in their favor, as you said.
The Astros have only $34MM in payroll committed to 2016, and many of the departing free agents have internal replacement candidates. Chris Carter, one of their most expensive arb candidates, seems like a non-tender. In 2017, the commitments drop to about $20MM total.
Houston has a wealth of talent coming up through the system on both sides of the ball that will help keep payroll down and should allow them to push for a starter. It’s also worth noting that next year is the last they’ll control Carlos Gomez; they made that trade with 2015 and 2016 in mind, so it’d be a surprise if they didn’t do everything in their power to make notable improvements to the 2016 roster.
“Who are some of the top second-tier bats who will be available this offseason?” — Robert F.
I’ll answer this one quickly and use it as a means to remind everyone that our full list of 2015-16 free agents is always available on the right-hand side of the page (desktop version, that is).
Dexter Fowler, Asdrubal Cabrera, Howie Kendrick, Daniel Murphy, Colby Rasmus, Gerardo Parra and Denard Span all come to mind.
“This morning’s ’Three Needs’ piece got me thinking about the many similarities in reality for the Padres and White Sox, and the vastly different tone of coverage for the two clubs since mid-July. Care to weigh in on how two teams who decided to go status quo at the deadline despite being so closely matched in their remote chances for the playoffs, which have been equally bad since, which have roughly the same amount of money committed next season (with a sadly similar percentage of it committed to guys who won’t be worth it), and which are equally bereft of short-term answers in the upper minors, get such totally different play in the national baseball media?” — David J.
The Padres do seem to take more flak for their current situation. I think there are a few reasons for that, the first of which is that so much of their activity came in a relatively short period of time. That frenzied span grabbed more headlines and created more of a buzz, and extra hype leads to extra coverage when the plan doesn’t pan out. Conversely, the Sox spread their moves out more over the course of the winter.
More importantly, though, is that the Sox added in a such a way that took on less long-term risk. David Robertson’s four-year, $46MM contract is sizable, but it falls shy of San Diego’s commitment to Matt Kemp or James Shields, and the Melvin Upton contract was seen in a far more negative light than any of Chicago’s acquisitions. Beyond that, the Padres parted with significant prospect collateral, whereas the Sox made mid-range free agent investments for much of their overhaul. (The Jeff Samardzija trade is one notable exception.) As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes noted when I mentioned this to him, the Padres’ strategy felt inherently more flawed. The Padres overloaded on right-handed bats with questionable gloves. I still bought them as a Wild Card contender, personally, but there were a fair amount of naysayers from the beginning.
Lastly, I think the Sox get a pass because they’re in better shape than the Padres. While the team has clear needs, the presence of Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and Carlos Rodon (plus the re-emergence of Erik Johnson) gives them a more compelling rotation than San Diego. And, looking around the lineup, Jose Abreu gives them a star, while Adam Eaton has that upside as well. They need help all around the diamond (though Melky Cabrera has rebounded since early summer), but it’s easier for me to see the White Sox rebounding in 2016.
Both have significant needs, but Sale, Quintana, Rodon, Abreu, Eaton and Robertson is a better starting point than Ross, Shields, Cashner, Myers and Kimbrel, especially considering how quickly Cashner and Shields can depart from that scene.
jr428
I could see DiPoto going after Cashner or Shields, especially if Felix’s elbow is enough of a concern.
Gwynning's Anal Lover
Looks like no more Latos, Off to the Angels.
disgruntledreader 2
For the next six days.
elegantmule
I’d be shocked if Beltran made the hall. If Dale Murphy can’t get in, playing in the pre-steroid era, I don’t think Carlos will either.
Brixton
I think Beltran has a good shot.
Dale Murphy’s career wasn’t up to Beltran’s in terms of stats.
Beltran .280/.355/.490 is better (not by a ton) than Murphy’s .265/.346/.469.
Beltran is going to end up with 500+ more hits than Murphy, slightly more HRs, 200+ more RBIs. Beltran was a much better base stealer (150 more SBs with 19 less CS).
Beltran had 150 more 2B, was a better OFer defensively.
Then theres that WAR stat where Beltran has 30+ more than Murphy.
thecoffinnail
Beltran will finish with better stats than Murphy all the way around.. Murphy was well on his way to the hall but after he turned 31 he went downhill fast.. If he had managed to stay healthy and put up even half of what he did in his 20’s he would be in the hall.. Murphy’s back to back MVP’s are nothing to sneeze at you have to put him in the same category as Andruw Jones.. It should be interesting to see how well he does when he becomes eligible..
rct
While they have identical OPS+, Beltran and Murphy are not good comps. Murphy had a higher peak (and a pair of MVPs), but he really only had 6 or 7 good seasons. Beltran has well over a decade of excellence. His counting numbers are getting further away from Murphy’s and his WAR is ~50% higher than Murphy’s. Beltran is approaching 70 WAR, which puts someone firmly on the cusp.
Then again, I’m a ‘Big Hall of Fame’ guy and think that guys like Larry Walker and Edgar Martinez are no-brainer Hall of Famers (both around 70 WAR), so there’s that.
A'sfaninUK
Manny Ramirez and Carlos Beltran have almost WAR at this point, so there’s your comp, with Larry Walker and Andruw Jones being on the same tier.
I agree with a big Hall too, all these guys should be there: anyone with 60+ fWAR should be automatic entry. It’s so hard to be that good for that long, it’s not like bad players would be going in, these are multi-all-stars and team legends who all have 60+ WAR.
Lance
Murphy won two MVP’s. Not to put down Beltran who has been a helluva player but I don’t think either man should be in HOF.
Mr Pike
FYI, Feliz has looked good for the last month with a 2.53 ERA and .75 WHIP pitching in high leverage situations.
Mr Pike
He also has a 3.76 FIP for the season and has recently been named the closer. I wouldn’t be so quick to declare him a certain non-tender.
pat r. 2
Typical outsiders commenting on the Padres. You do realize this team has never had a significant acquisition in over decade. And with 2015 they got Kimbrel, Shields and Kemp. You have no idea what those acquisitons meant to Padre fans in San Diego unless you have lived here all your life. They overwhelmingly underachieved this year, but any person who says they need to dismantle the whole thing (including those from this trade deadline) obviously know nothing about what these players have meant to San Diego. Big names obviously mean little over the years, but for the time being (considering this is Prellers first year!) what he accomplished with the SD overall offensive numbers was very promising. So please, stop writing and commenting for a team you know nothing about. Thanks.
kent814
Completely agree. While it may make baseball sense to dismantle it, what the last offseason did to San Diego was amazing. I believe they sold more than 200% of last years season tickets if Im correct. Plus everyone that says they are bad is assuming that A. The pitching will stay at 2015 levels instead of 2014 and B Wil Myers is going to be injured. In 2014 it was the great pitching that carried us, this years it was the offense. If Cashner, Shields, Kimbrel, and the bullpen do what we are used to them doing instead of their 2015 numbers, and offense performs similiarly to this year, this is a playoff team.
rct
Just to piggy-back on your point, the Padres have seen the 6th-highest increase in attendance this year at nearly 3500 more fans per game. All of the teams ahead of them (Blue Jays, Mets, Cubs, Royals, and Astros) are playoff-bound teams who improved greatly this year.
A'sfaninUK
Who seriously cares about attendance?
rct
The guy I’m responding to? Also, every single team cares about attendance because it is a source of revenue. The Mets, for example, have made anywhere from $10 to $20MM more than they made last year, just on attendance/ticket sales. It’s eminently important, not sure how you can think otherwise, especially for a low- to mid-level team like the Padres.
More specifically, the Padres, despite not playing well, still had the 6th highest increase in attendance this year. That was the OP’s point, that despite not playing well, the fanbase was still energized and it lead to an increase in attendance (and ~$5MM+ in revenue).
A'sfaninUK
Disagree wholeheartedly due to revenue sharing and MLB team owners all being wealthy, other than maybe OAK and TB every team can at any given time go out and give $100M deals to “big name” guys, but that doesn’t mean they should and as the 2015 Padres have shown, it actually is a really terrible way to build a team. Is OP saying that SD is better off for having names and losing because the owners made more money from attendance? Or is OP saying that SD would be worse off if they made the playoffs based off guys they bought up from the farm and role players aka “no-names” but were bottom 10 in attendance?
SD seems to be the only fanbase in baseball where winning is never the most important thing, they seem to enjoy losing with players they know by name. I can’t stand reading their viewpoints, they’re the laziest fanbase in MLB and need to get fired up to win and not just be comfortable.
Mr Pike
Your assumption that SD would have made the playoffs with a bunch of farm hands and role players is pretty wild, don’t you think?
If you are going to finish in last, it’s better to be proactive and fail than to maintain the status quo.
jacobyrush25
Salt.
kent814
What do you mean they enjoy having name players? Before 2015 our most popular player was either Chris Denorfia or Joaquin Benoit so that point is invalid. Also that the padres dont care about winning is false, or else why would we support them?
seamaholic 2
If you think $5m in increased revenue matters to anyone at all in the Padres organization, you’re sadly mistaken.
Mr Pike
You really think the Blue Jays aren’t thrilled to see their stadium full every night?
seamaholic 2
While a bit cynical for my taste, you’re absolutely right. No one cares about it anymore. Attendance is a pretty minor part of team budgets these days.
Mr Pike
KC could not have made the additions they have this year without the huge boost in attendance. Remember, attendance is an great indicator of fan interest which is then reflected in TV revenue and merchandise sales. Saint Louis would be nowhere near where they’re at if fan interest didn’t pay for their scouting and farm system expenses.
willi
Agree, Disarranged people.
A'sfaninUK
Typical SD fan response, attaching value to the “name players” on their poorly constructed squad. You guys are so far away from understanding what good, winning baseball looks like its incredible. Have fun not winning your division anytime soon!
Like seriously, how dare you come in here and badmouth Steve Adams, who knows your team better than you do? How about you just take your homer hat off for a second and realize that your team had no LH bats and horrendous defense which obviously led to the pitching suddenly “underperforming”…you SD fans are so sensitive to your failure of a season, sheesh
kent814
We didnt exactly have great defense in 2014 but we still had a top 5 pitching staff
37santobanks
I would love to see the Cubs sign Fowler for 3-4 years. They don’t have an obvious CF coming up through the pipeline and he has been a pretty decent fit. Any thoughts on who would start CF for the Cubs in 2016 if not Fowler?
ronnsnow
I could see the Cubs acquiring Jacoby Ellsbury in some sort of deal revolving around Baez, Castro, or both.
Los Calcetines Rojos
I can see Baez and a mid level prospect but I doubt both are put in that deal. Theo loves Ellsbury but if they get Fowler on a reasonable offer then there is no reason for the trade. Fowler will probably push 55+ at 4 years which I think may be a little high but hey I think he’s a big reason the cubs have been great this year! Guess we’ll have to wait and see
This offseason will ultimately decide what they will be doing over the next 4-6 years.
IMO if its not Fowler then I wouldn’t be shocked to see Coghlan get a shot at CF. I don’t think Bryant, Schwarber, or Soler project very well in CF.
123redsox
My top 7 second tier hitters in the 2016 FA class: ben zobrist,Howie Kendrick, asdrubal cabrera, daniel Murphy, debates span, dexter Fowler and Alejandro de aza
Los Calcetines Rojos
I think the sox main issue may be Ventura at this point. The team really started to come together as youth began to come up. Reinsdorf has to understand, from a business aspect, that just because you believe in someone doesn’t mean they get infinite chances to prove it.
Besides that Hahn has being doing a good job at the reins and the rotation looks solid. If Rodon, Johnson, and Montas can take over the 3,4, and 5 spots I’d be thrilled. IMO those are 3 very solid pitching prospects with Rodon and Montas being borderline ace potential. They have more talent than people think