Thanks for all of your questions this week. Remember that you can ask about whatever is on your mind in our Tuesday afternoon chats (~2pm central) or through the Mailbag email address (mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com). On to this week’s questions…
Will the Cardinals extend Jason Heyward or not, because they did give up Shelby Miller to acquire him, and it doesn’t make much sense to let him walk after one year. — Michael P
The two sides haven’t had any serious talks about an extension yet, though there’s also some mutual interest in Heyward staying beyond 2015. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ranked the outfielder as having the second-most earning potential of any 2015-16 free agent, so it would take easily the largest contract in Cardinals franchise history to bring Heyward back into the fold. If Heyward did leave, the 2016 St. Louis starting outfield projects as Matt Holliday, Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty, with Jon Jay and Peter Bourjos as backups, which could leave room for another veteran outfielder to be brought in at a lower price than Heyward will command. Does a year of excellent play from Heyward, a month of Jordan Walden and a compensatory first-round draft pick (due to the qualifying offer) equal four years of control over Miller and prospect Tyrell Jenkins? That’s a question that might take a few more years to answer, though the Cards would instantly chalk it up as a win if Heyward helps them win a championship. I’d guess that St. Louis will make a strong play to re-sign Heyward this offseason, though if the bidding gets really high (into the $180MM-$200MM range), that might be too expensive for the Cards’ liking.
Care to handicap the odds that Sandy Alderson extends a QO to Daniel Murphy? If offered is there any chance that Murph becomes the first player to ever accept? I’d imagine his agent will make lots of noise that he would “love to stay in NY on a 1 year deal to finish the job” in an attempt to bluff the Mets out of hurting his market value. — Cliff P
The upcoming class of free agent second and third basemen isn’t very deep, so I’d expect Murphy would indeed reject a qualifying offer in search of a healthy multi-year deal elsewhere. He should be able to find such a deal despite the draft pick compensation attached to his services, though Cliff is probably right in thinking that Murphy’s market will take a hit from the QO. If Murphy did break precedent and accept, it wouldn’t be the worst outcome for the Mets; a one-year/$16MM deal for an everyday second baseman who can also be something of a poor man’s Ben Zobrist in his ability to fill in at multiple other positions.
Yes or No. The Red Sox will sign one of the following this offseason: David Price, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann? — Kyle R
I’m leaning towards no. Anibal Sanchez is the only notable starting pitcher Dave Dombrowski has ever acquired in free agency, and even then Sanchez was re-signed after originally coming to the Tigers in a midseason deal. Dombrowski’s past history with starting pitcher contracts (hat tip to the MLBTR Transaction Tracker) indicates that he is more likely to obtain an ace via trade. Dombrowski could change tactics given his new surroundings and input from whomever is hired as the new Red Sox GM, though my guess is that if the Sox do land a top-tier arm this winter, it will be by dealing from their deep farm system.
What is Bronson Arroyo’s current standing with the Dodgers? Will he ever be able to pitch in the majors again, this year or next? — Jack S
Arroyo underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2014. He said in June that he was hoping to return to action by mid-August, there has been no recent word on his status now that August has come and gone. As such, he’s almost certainly not going to pitch this season. The Dodgers have a $13MM club option on Arroyo for 2016 that is sure to be bought out for $4.5MM (paid by the Braves, as per a condition of the elaborate trade that brought Arroyo to Los Angeles). If Arroyo is healthy, I’d expect he will find a a minor league deal from some team this winter. Arroyo hasn’t hinted at retirement in the wake of his injury, though since he’ll turn 39 in February, you have to wonder if he’ll consider hanging up his spikes if his recovery process is taking longer than expected.
Daniel Murphy has been worth 0.6 WAR this year, and only ever had 1 season of being an average everyday baseball player. Man, if someone gives him a qualifying offer, he should take it and run.
Youre out to lunch on that one. WAR is a dumb stat. Murphys OPS+ has been over 100 in all seasons except one. He hits for a high average playing a position where offence is at a premium. Murphy is a very good 2B.
All stats need to be taken in context. So both WAR and OPS+ need context.
Murphy plays primarily at second and third this year. Third is a position that mostly prizes offense where second is a position that mostly prizes defense. As a third baseman Murphy is a middle of the pack hitter (15th against all third basemen in the league in OPS) and has a completely a completely average glove with a 0 UZR. Among second basemen he has a UZR under -2 and ranks 11th in OPS.
So overall sure, Murphy is an above average hitter. But he’s a poor fielder and slightly ahead of the middle of the pack when it comes to hitting as a second baseman. Which in my book makes him an average second baseman.
Except he rates out as a horrible 2B no matter what sabermetric stat you’d like to use. He’s not worth 16m/yr no matter what stat you want to spin to your liking.
I agree with you except “being worth” has nothing to do with the money he is going to get. At all. You have to look at this from a teams perspective: if they have X amount of dollars to improve a position, they are going to use it, regardless of how much it is.
Correct. He is not worth $16m/yr, but someone will probably give him a multi-yr deal for $30m+. He can be an adventure in the field sometimes, but that is every handful of games. The dude can hit and his OPS+ for 2B makes him worth the $. As a 3B he is less valuable.
How many times do you have to be told that performance does not in any way, shape or form equal dollar value “worth” or equal statistical performance? It doesn’t.
I even agree with you that Murphy isn’t a great player by any standard, but that’s not going to stop him getting $30-50M this offseason. Please take note of my posts to you on here in winter, you’re going to be surprised how often I’m right. Is it going to backfire on the team who gets him? More than likely, but then again $WAR value isn’t that much to where a few outlier defensive seasons might save the contract.
Want an example? Billy Butler was worth -0.5 WAR last year, got $30M and is a DH only. Murphy at least plays multiple positions, that cranks his financial ceiling way past Butlers. That’s how the market works.
Repeat after me: Its not about performance, its not about performance, its not about performance, its not about performance…
Free agency long ago taught fans……
It just takes one desperate and/or crazed owner and/or GM from one of 30 teams to get a player an illogical contract – which subsequently continues to increase the pay for all players. More often then not that happens. Scott Boras knows this better then anyone.
2.1 fWAR while playing three positions competently, but who’s counting?
A return to the Reds seems like a fit for Bronson Arroyo in 2016, if he clears physicals and if the team wants to add a veteran for an otherwise young and inexperienced rotation.
Actually, Dombrowski aquired Sanchez via trade in 2012.
True, but he did become a free agent, and then signed with Detroit. Its not like he signed an extension after the trade.
I wonder if the Cardinals will sign John Lackey or Jaime Garcia, or both back.
Garcia has a team option if I’m not mistaken.
Correct. Actually, he has another one for 2017, too. $11.5MM and $12MM, respectively.
Oh ok. Im not familiar with how those “options” work. I know Lackey is a free agent though.
What of the padres ss situation? Is gyorko the long term answer? Probably not so will they pursue Desmond or Castro, or a young prospect?
In order to get a Castro or a prospect they would need to make a trade. Who do you think the Cubs would want for castro and who do you think they’d give up for a type A or B shortstop prospect? Honestly, I dont see anyone on the team or in the minors thst would get a prospect or Castro that the Padres would be willing to deal and the only guy I can really see teams asking for is Hedges and I dont see him going anywhere as he is seen as their long term solution behind the plate.I see Desmond being more realistic as he is a free agent but he would cost a draft pick and cost too much money for a team that may not be in contention till he is in his mid to late thirties. Going out and getting a star is not going to make a difference right now as they are in such a whole thst they have nothing except average to below average players and bad contracts at the major league level pretty much and no farm system as hedges is the only onr ranked in the top 100 prospects in baseball from theur organization.
It would also be a bad idea to trade Castro after such a poor season. The guy has been literally so bad, he lost his starting shortstop job.
You guys are killing me with the Heyward projections. I don’t see much more than a qualifying offer honestly. They certainly aren’t going to offer a 130+ Million contract to the guy and I don’t think many other teams will either.
Prediction: Heyward will sign with St Louis for much less than the writers and commenters are saying. They will then say that Heyward took less money to play in a good environment, and could have gotten $200 million.
STL has too many OFers, Grichuk is really, really good, as is Piscotty and then there’s Holliday, Bourjos etc etc. Holliday will eventually move to 1B but that won’t be for a year or two.
Holliday will never move to 1B. His lower back will not allow it. His footwork is also terrible.
Dont forget Adams is at first, and Mo doesn’t want to get rid of him.
You’re killing me more thinking a 26 year old with as much experience and ceiling is only going to get a QO. He’s getting $200+M, and don’t be so shocked when he does, we we told you first.
There’s 10 people that have 200+M contracts. Stanton, AROD, Cabrera, Pujols, Cano, Votto, Kershaw, Fielder, Scherzer. Jason Heyward isn’t going to be a member of the club. Sorry.
Heyward just turned 26 and he’s already got 25-30 WAR. He pretty consistently averages about 5 WAR per season. Even an eight year deal only gets him to age 34. Given his age, $20MM per season would be a bargain for possibly the next 6 years. I can’t see him signing for less than eight years and $160MM and could easily see $200MM. Guys like Rick Porcello make over $20MM in a season. Could be wrong, but I would be shocked if he doesn’t grab the biggest deal this offseason along with Price.
At the moment, it’s not “guys like Rick Porcello”, its only Rick Porcello. I’m sure his contract will be used for comparison this winter, though. Thank you, Boston!
Well, the Cardinals do have a limit. And I think if they wanted him back desperately, they would have signed him by now. They do have some options if he does leave.
It takes two to agree on the contract. This close to free agency, why would he not wait until he can play the field before signing?
Someone is going to be stupid with him; all it takes is 1 idiot owner/GM to make a bad deal happen. His athleticism is what pushes his #’s, and that is dicey at best for anything over a few years. He is going to get 6+ yrs, so that is definitely a factor.
I don’t think the input of a GM is going to sway Dombrowski’s plan much at all. He is the boss and the new GM isn’t gonna have much say. I think it is very likely that Dombrowski pursues an ace via free agency if he is given the salary flexibility to do so. And if that happens to be the case, I could see him looking to make a trade for another top of the rotation starter as well. He likes having a super rotation, so I wouldn’t be surprised by a free agent and trade acquisition.
Dombrowski was given “salary flexibility” in Detroit and he signed one free agent pitcher in free agency. That’s the point in the article, and a good one.
Yes, I realize that, but there is a big difference between the two teams, and that lies in the starting rotation. Dombrowski has had Verlander, Scherzer, and Price (two of these were acquired via trade, but nobody could’ve predicted Scherzer breaking out as he did) at some point to lead their rotation, meaning the Tigers never have had to be big contenders in free agency for an ace in recent years (also, they signed Verlander to a free agent level contract). With Price becoming a free agent this offseason, it had looked like the Tigers would’ve chosen to be players on the market for an ace (this mightn’t be the case anymore if they don’t think they can retool the team), so had Dombrowski still been there, then I think it was quite possible we would’ve seen him make that signing of an ace, as I think he will do with the Red Sox because of a similar situation (and thus, choose to keep the young talent).
I think DD predicted Scherzers rise when he acquired him for Jackson, who had just had a better year.
I do see a few deals potentially being made this off season. Brock Holt is cost controlled, young, coming off of an all star year snd can hit .280-.300 over a season whilr playing great defense wherever you put him. With the Mets having so much potential depth of young top of the rotation arms and Daniel Murphy most likely going to get way too much money in FA, the Mets will be in the Market for a new second baseman potebtially with position flexibility like Murphy brought. One of those guys paired with Rodriguez, a signed ace, Porcello and one of Miley, Owens, Kelly, and Johnson for the fifth spot.
The Mets have major depth at 2B. Flores and Dilson Herrera are both competing for the role in 2015 and both will likely be better than current Murphy soon enough. 2B is the last position the Mets need to improve upon.
Disagree with you on the Red Sox….Dombrowski needs to make a splash and demonstrate he can make an immediate impact. Look for Hanley to get dealt with RS eating 50% of his salary, Price to sign 7/210 paid out over 9, Buchholtz gets option renewed (then traded if Price signs, kept if not) and some other moves to strengthen the BP.
Dombrowski has been a GM for decades. He doesn’t need to “make a splash” (which the Red Sox do every year), he needs to put a solid team together that can win.
DD has been a GM since 1998, not quite decades but a long time. But don’t under estimate the egos of people in front offices and their desire to make big headlines in the off-season. Putting a solid team together is every front office’s goal, how they go about it is another thing. I think he will spend a big chunk on Price….and rightfully so, the RS could use him.
I see Boston going after Greinke. He’s a perfect fit as in he’s a need, is an incredible quote and a fiery competitor. Boston has the money to shell out 7/220 too.
I think that’d be a great option for BOS, though he is definitely going to be overpaid by whomever takes him, but that is the price of doing business for a FA elite pitcher. Lord knows Porcello and Miley aren’t going to be frontline guys anytime soon.
They will not pay Greinke that much. He is simply not worth it. No way he gets a figure similar to Price. It’ll be more so in the 5/150-165MM range.
If the Mets want a younger, cheaper guy who can start at 2B and fill in around the field, I believe they could get Brock Holt for the right price. And given the Mets depth of potential, young top of the rotation arms and that being an issue in Boston, I could see the two teams matching for a deal.
Why would the Mets want a second baseman when they already have Flores and Herrera? And what kind of pitcher do you expect to get back for Holt? Jon Niese+?