It’s often dangerous to read too much into a hot streak, as the endpoints of the streak will often be arbitrary, and shrinking the sample size makes the data more susceptible to randomness. Though it’s dangerous to use them as a predictive tool, hot streaks can hold some significance for upcoming free agents — particularly ones that have struggled for much of the season. A well-timed hot streak can take a player’s numbers from good to great or from terrible to passable. A huge second half following a disastrous first half can demonstrate that a player hasn’t suddenly lost all of his skill, giving offseason suitors hope for more consistent production in the season(s) to follow.
The overall numbers on the following players may not quite look appealing, but here are three that could be in the midst of bolstering their offseason earning power after dreadful starts to the year (coincidentally — they’re all shortstops!)…
- Ian Desmond, Nationals: Perhaps no player looked to be costing himself as much money as Desmond entering the All-Star break. Heading into his contract season, there was a legitimate case to be made for Desmond as the game’s most productive shortstop over the past three seasons, but he slumped to a .211/.255/.334 batting line in the first half and endured an awful error-prone stretch in the field early on. He’s tightened up the errors after those first few weeks, though, and is finally showing signs of life at the plate. Over his past 21 games, Desmond is hitting .312/.376/.636 with seven homers and four steals. The question for him will become whether or not a huge second half can make his first half simply look like an anomaly and convince a team to invest more than $100MM.
- Asdrubal Cabrera, Rays: Cabrera settled for a one-year deal this winter, and through the first eight to 10 weeks of the season, he looked like a player that didn’t deserve anything more. However, since mid-June, Cabrera’s hitting .357/.393/.579 with four homers, 13 doubles and a triple. It’s easy enough to see that his .418 BABIP in that stretch is inflating his numbers, but there’s been some improvement as well. Cabrera struck out at a 23.1 percent clip through June 18, but since that night he’s at a more palatable 18.4 percent. He’s also hitting the ball with more authority, as evidenced not only by his spike in power but by his decrease in soft contact and increase in medium and hard contact (per Fangraphs). Surprisingly, Cabrera grades out as a plus defender at shortstop in 2015 as well, though it may take more than a few hundred innings to overturn his previous reputation as a poor defender. At the very least, he’s positioning himself to land the multi-year deal that eluded him this past winter.
- Jimmy Rollins, Dodgers: Suffice it to say, the 2015 season hasn’t gone as the Dodgers or Rollins had hoped. In his first season sans Phillies pinstripes, Rollins has flirted with the Mendoza Line and carried a sub-.600 OPS for much of the year. His current line is about 20 percent worse than the league-average hitter (80 wRC+, 78 OPS+), but a good deal of his struggles have also been BABIP-related, and his fortunes have begun to turn. Dating back to July 1, Rollins is hitting a much-improved .256/.315/.453, including hits in 15 of his past 18 games. Though his steals are well down, he’s already sporting a double-digit home run total. Rollins has not drawn strong ratings on his defense this year, but he does have a lengthy track record of high-quality glove work on which he can fall back. If he can continue his late surge at the plate and continue to make the first half look more like a blip, he should draw plenty of interest from teams looking for a sturdy veteran option up the middle.
- Alexei Ramirez, White Sox: Not long ago, Ramirez’s $10MM club option looked like a no-brainer to be bought out. Glancing at his overall numbers, that’d still be the case, but like the others on this list, he’s looked like a different player over the past month-plus. Ramirez was hitting .212/.235/.281 on June 30, but he’s hitting .291/.321/.480 with five homers and six steals in 34 games since. He’s not walking much (4.4%), but he’s also not striking out (7.4%), so his solid production comes with a very sustainable .283 BABIP. Ramirez can’t erase his ugly numbers through June 30, but if he sustains this production through season’s end, the White Sox or another team could easily be convinced that a .234 average on balls in play was responsible for his poor first half than a total collapse of his skill set.
Clearly, these four can’t all sustain their recent production (especially in the case of Desmond and Cabrera). However, it’s worth keeping an eye on each player’s production over the final seven weeks of the season, as none of the four looks as lost as he did even six weeks ago. In Desmond’s case in particular, that could mean the difference of tens of millions of dollars.
Desmond is going to have to sign a one year contract to rebuild his value.. Teams that can afford to risk a $100m contract on a player have decent to solid options in place (Red Sox, Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs).. Although, if the White Sox part ways with Ramirez I can see them risking the $100m.. He seems like exactly the type of player they would go after..
Edit: My speculation.. Desmond to the White Sox, Rollins to Seattle. Ramirez to the Padres and Cabrera stays in Tampa.. I know the White Sox have Anderson moving up the minors but Desmond just seems like a move they would make..
Depends who gets a QO. Trea Turner is climbing rapidly but rushing him could be disastrous. Depends how he does in his September call up. Poorly Desmomd gets a QO. If he’s decent or as advertised no QO.
Rizzo has moved on. The Nationals can play Escobar and/or Espinosa at SS, and both players can do it better then Desmond.
because everyone cares about my fantasy team….after drafting Alexi Ramirez, I finally had enough of him on July 1st, and dropped him…..
Love reading the splits on him.
One thing I will say, it is nearly impossible to predict free agent salaries this early. It all depends on who gets QO’s, which trade pieces are out there, and how the last two months (and for some, the playoffs) shake out.
With Desmond, if he gets a QO, he could very well be a free agent in spring training. His numbers haven’t been good at all over this season with his power numbers way down as well as his overall batting average (not to mention, rough defense). A team I can see taking a shot on him is MInnesota, as they are well on their way to competing and Desmond could be an upgrade over Escobar. I’d guess with the QO, Desmond lands a 1 year $12,000,000 with mutual option for $15,000,000 (2017).
Rollins won’t match $11,000,000 this offseason but he could bring something home. Despite the low batting average, he brings veteran leadership, power and good speed and defense than Cabrera and Ramirez. He would instantly help a team on the cusp of legitimacy out, and due to the proximity with his hometown, I can see him playing in Seattle on a 1 year contract worth $6,000,000
I see Asdrubal Cabrera headed to San Diego on a 3 year $36,000,000 contract due to the fact that he is still young and San Diego has no obvious shortstop for next year and this gives AJ a nice piece for 2016 and beyond with a contract that isn’t ridiculous.
Ramirez will likely just head back to the White Sox in my opinion. He’s getting older and he will act as a stop gap for Tim Anderson and then will be shopped at the deadline if he performs well. I’d guess a 1 year $3,000,000 contract.
Agreeing with what the White Sox would like to do with Ramirez. I don’t think his hot streak makes one bit of difference as he has been this way every year of his career. The wild card here is if the Brewers or a west coast team kicked the tires on him – getting in warmer temperatures in April and May could convince one of those teams to offer more than 3M or 2 years.
If anything Alexei could be playing this hard to dupe the Sox into picking up his option then it is back to being on cruise control like in the beginning of the season. It is bad enough management was duped into not selling and trying to buy before the deadline and good thing they did not lose any prospects in that futile attempt. From what I have heard Anderson is tearing up the minors right now and could very well be a Sept call up if he stays performing that way. If he really is ahead of the curve, Alexei could (and probably should) be gone. I think though the real issue is I do not see any motivation for these guys to play hard for their manager. While they have been playing better as of late (and probably would be better if Robin would stop trying to inject LaRoche into the line up – even as a pinch hitter) I still see this as a middling team at best, not getting over .500, or at the most not much past .500 as a club. They need a manager that will motivate and hold players accountable for bad play.
Alexei is like everyone else on this club. Plays well enough to not get traded, and now playing well enough to get his option picked up. I say if Anderson really is doing as well as he is, he should be up here in Sept and see what he can do. If he does well, then trade or release Alexei. Sox management has to stopped being duped by this up and down play by their players. Changes are needed big time, or else I see another mediocre April- June again for them next season. They need a manager who can take charge, be respected, and motivate his players, and I see none of that with their current manager. I see a team that plays well enough just to get by. Now some of that is on the players for sure. Some of that is just mediocre performances by certain FA’s brought in to perform (LaRoche and Samardzija) and that falls on the GM, but I think this club as a whole has done only one thing under Robin: Under perform, both with the bat and glove. But also some really bad decision making by someone who is now not a rookie manager but still makes rookie manager type mistakes.