The non-waiver trade deadline has passed, and many players’ free agent prospects were affected. So far, the following free agents are among those no longer eligible for a qualifying offer due to a trade: David Price, Johnny Cueto, Ben Zobrist, Scott Kazmir, Mat Latos, Mike Leake, Gerardo Parra, and Dan Haren. Yoenis Cespedes was already ineligible for a QO.
As a reminder, these rankings represent earning power in terms of total contract size, assuming everyone reaches the open market after this season and goes to the highest bidder. Here’s MLBTR’s full list of 2015-16 free agents.
1. David Price. Price landed with the Blue Jays last week in a blockbuster trade, and has ascended to the top spot in these rankings. His 2.45 ERA ranks fourth in the American League, and agent Bo McKinnis will have a case to exceed Max Scherzer’s seven-year, $210MM deal from last offseason. The present-day value of that deal was reported to be under $192MM due to deferred money. Price represents a true ace at the top of his game, entering his age 30 season. He might be the only free agent to top $200MM this winter.
2. Jason Heyward. Heyward’s last 1500 plate appearances have established that he’s good for about 15 home runs per year. He adds value in a lot of different ways, though, and a more analytical team might be more inclined to appreciate and pay for that. While he might not be better than all the players listed below him, keep in mind Heyward turns 26 years old on Sunday. Because of his age, Heyward is the player on this list with the best shot at an eight-year contract, which could still push him into the $180MM range.
3. Justin Upton. Upton is the other free agent outfielder who figures to command a premium partly because of his youth. Still, he’s hitting .189/.275/.311 since June, and he will require draft pick forfeiture unless the Padres trade him this month. Upton has been hampered by oblique and thumb injuries since July 19th, and his contract year has not gone as planned. He still may approach 30 home runs, though, and may be able to get a seven-year deal.
4. Johnny Cueto. As expected, Cueto was traded, and now he’ll try to lead the Royals to a championship. Cueto’s ace-level talent is undeniable, but with a few blips on his health record, can he push into seven-year deal territory? A seventh year could result in Cueto getting this winter’s second-biggest contract. A strong finish will go a long way.
5. Zack Greinke. Since we last checked in on June 25th, Greinke has given up four earned runs. He leads all of baseball with a 1.41 ERA, and no one else is under 2.00. Greinke’s timing is fantastic, and even though he turns 32 in October, a six-year deal is looking more and more plausible. Opting out of the three years and $71MM remaining on his Dodgers contract seems a mere formality.
6. Yoenis Cespedes. The Mets made a trade deadline splash by acquiring Cespedes. He may threaten his career-high of 26 home runs, and he turns 30 in October. With Shin-Soo Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury, there is precedent for Cespedes to get a seven-year deal. Though he’s known for his power, Cespedes’ agent could try to push him as an elite defender as well based on his metrics this year.
7. Alex Gordon. Gordon went down on July 8th with a groin injury, but he’s on the road to recovery. I don’t believe the injury will affect his value much. However, as a player who turns 32 in February, he seems limited to a six-year deal. Given his strong on-base percentage and defense, there will be teams with Gordon atop their free agent outfielder rankings.
8. Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann has been solid, with a 3.54 ERA in 22 starts. He’s not a big strikeout guy, and for the first time it looks like he’ll allow more than a hit per inning in a full season. He’ll still be a great addition for a team with a strong defense. The question is whether a team will commit a sixth year.
9. Chris Davis. Davis has bounced back from 2014 and has a reasonable shot at hitting 40 home runs this year. Davis has 28 home runs now, with Upton, Cespedes, and Marlon Byrd next among free agents at 18. Davis isn’t showing a platoon split in 2015, and he doesn’t turn 30 until March. He’s again starting to look like a player who could exceed $100MM.
10. Mike Leake. Leake is a new entrant on this list. Just 28 in November, Leake has a 2.61 ERA since June. With the trade to the Giants, he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer. Leake is a durable, young mid-rotation arm, and I’m starting to wonder if he can snag a five-year deal in free agency. For now, his durability holds off Scott Kazmir in terms of earning power.
Kazmir leads the American League in ERA right now, and won’t be getting a qualifying offer. The southpaw, 32 in January, could find his way into our top ten if his success continues and his health holds up. Still, it’s hard to crack the list without an expectation of a five-year deal, and I can’t picture that for Kazmir right now.
Jeff Samardzija, once seen as the list’s most likely trade candidate, has fallen out of our top ten. His results continue to be middling for the White Sox, and now a qualifying offer seems likely. Shark remains a durable, quality arm, but he might not be a lock for five years.
Nationals’ shortstop Ian Desmond also drops off the list. His struggles have continued, and he may prefer to try to rebuild value with a one-year deal. Those haven’t been en vogue lately, but can you picture any team giving Desmond four-plus years at a decent salary?
Other impending free agents to watch include Matt Wieters, Ben Zobrist, Yovani Gallardo, Gerardo Parra, Denard Span, Wei-Yin Chen, and Mat Latos.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Chris Davis: He’s again starting to look like a player who could exceed $100MM
Good Lord, we all need to look harder then.
Davis is having a really good second half of the season and he’s still fairly young. His strikeout numbers are alarming though. I think he probably falls somewhere in the 60-80 mil range over 5-6 years.
I’d rather have him more over shorter. The K’s don’t bother me with him at this point…its what you’d maybe expect. All about the money I guess…I like him for the right price..my only concern is major regression
If the season ended today, Davis would take a four-year stretch with a .253/.334/.522 batting line and an average of 35 homers per season onto the market as a 29-year-old free agent heading into his age-30 season.
You can dislike the strikeouts, but that’s a pretty strong four-year platform heading into free agency. Totally agree with Tim that $100MM+ is possible.
Thats almost the same profile as Adam Dunn. He loses any vision or contact skill…while its minimal now..that OBP crashes down to around .300-310….teams then expose him other places and you’re looking at a .230-.310-20 Hr bat. That’s not AAA…but it might lead some teams to take a chance on dealing for someone more short term… an Adam Lind..etc
And to think I used to cringe at Mike Schmidt’s 18% K rate. Now somebody with a 31% K rate can get a $100 million contract. One thing that hasn’t changed, I still cringe at a high K rate… The most unproductive out in baseball.
Look at what else Schmidt brought to the table… With the exception of maybe Brooks Robinson he was the top defender at third sack in history.
That’s what my issue with Dunn was…I can’t count the times he’d come to the dish with a runner in scoring position and less than two outs where simple contact would have scored a run…..really negates those big flies. Everyone sees him drive those runs in…but fails to see every time he hung runners out to dry
better than a double play…
Not with Dunn…he was brutal… He’d have so many guys on 2nd or 3rd and not make any contact….oh he’d DP too…he and Konerko worked that routine out like a Ringling act
i was responding to az phil saying a k is the most unproductive out, but it just lumps all the comments.
A run can still score on a double play (or advance from second to third), but if there’s no one else on base then I agree.
The most unproductive single out is probably an infield pop-out, as you can still reach on the 3rd strike rule, while the only possible benefit of an infield pop-out is some reckless daredevil of a baserunner (Billy Hamilton?) who manages to force an errant throw after tagging up and trying to advance.
Not if the umpires apply the infield fly rule
A base runner can still tag up and advance on an infield fly.
Not many are pulling that off.
That was the point of Lanidrac calling an infield pop-out “The most unproductive single out”. My point is Lanidrac’s comment does indeed apply the infield fly rule, which you have apparently failed to understand.
Yeah…apparently I was reading things backwards yesterday.. Thanks for the dig though
not true, double plays are worse, and infield popups are equally as bad
It’s similar to Dunn with the exception of the fact that Davis is still viewed as a capable first baseman. Adam Dunn got $56MM five years ago heading into his age-31 season as a strict DH. Davis will be a year younger in an inflated free agent market/deflated offensive environment, and he actually has some defensive value.
I’m not saying he “deserves” $100MM or more — that’s never the goal of these rankings or of the predictions in our free agent profiles. But does he have a legitimate chance of getting it? Absolutely.
Well, certainly there’s a chance…but how much is his defensive value at 1B really worth on the contract? I just don’t see any teams springing because of 1B defensive value. Money is money and every season I’m surprised though.
Every year there are dead weight contracts as well. I’m just saying I believe Davis has a higher % for this than average. Perhaps the market holds him down a bit too. A few teams balk and seek other alternatives and he loses negotiating leverage.
Oh…Dunn had absolutely no defensive value. I’m in Chicago with my 7 year old son at the time and Dunn totally bricked a ball…my son says..”D### It! That guy is horrible!”. I’d never heard my son curse…but yeah father son story…Dunn on defense made 7 year olds curse
Chris Davis has zero chance of getting a $100m contract.. The teams that would risk a $100m contract on a player like him are limited and all of them except for Boston has 1st base locked up next year.. He will probably sign a contract similar to Cruz’s with Seattle or Houston.. Absolutely no way Chris Davis out earns Samardzija unless Samardzija takes a one year deal somewhere to rebuild value or perhaps he will be the first player to accept a QO..
Cruz might be a decent comp actually. Steve does feel that Davis has defensive value though…Cruz doesn’t have much of that
.310 is about league-wide average for OBP, which combined with his SLG% still makes him an above-average bat even with that regression.
OK…take him down some obp…my point is that his value crashes when the obp crashes. His power works back to Mark Reynolds or Brandon Moss territory. That’s not what you want on a 30ish player heading into a 100m deal.
I think the problem is it’s the inconsistency from Davis.
If you don’t watch him everyday, but the basis is statistics…
I guess what I am saying is: he is a difficult player to define.
Anyway, that is my take.
He came on fairly quick when he got it figured out, but he could fade quickly as well. I’m not claiming his value is this or that….only putting it in the light of a potential 100m contact
Will be fun to watch if he heads to Colorado
So many players would be fun in Colorado. Baez too perhaps
Alex Gordon would help complete the transformation Markakis has helped start for the Braves, Just solid well rounded baseball Players. Find it hard to see the Royals letting him get away though.
I never say never in free agency, but I believe Gordon is more likely than the typical free agent to stay home. He’s a bit like Mauer playing in MN. I’d also think that KC has well prepared for this.
Royals seem way too well run to guarantee a guy $20m five years down the line for his age 36 season. Going forward i see them keeping their core largely together, continuing to add 7-figure starters, reloading the farm by collecting compensatory picks for departing free agents each year (’14 Shields; ’15 Gordon; ’16 Holland; ’17 Cain, Davis, Hosmer, Moustakis, ’18 Herrera, ’19 Perez, ’20 Ventura ) and filling in the gaps with short-term/value vets (Morales, Rios.) I could see them replace Gordon and Rios with guys like Victorino and Rasmus.
Well run? You’d have been executed by the masses a few seasons ago before everyone jumped on the Dayton Moore train. Keep in mind that David Glass still owns this team. I grew up around KC and I don’t care if they win it all this season….Glass will always be suspicious.
Kind of have to agree. Grew up in Omaha and have been a KC fan my whole life. DG is definitely questionable and never know what’s going to happen with him. He could very well sell the farm after this year and start rebuilding lol. DM could very well tell Gordo to kick rocks, who knows?!?! One thing is for sure, thanks to the young guys playing so well DM and DG look like geniuses….. :/ I still don’t like Ned other than his ability to round up great assistants….ha
Lots of Ned love out there now for some odd reason…I find him responsible for their lack of a central pennant. That Ventura decision in the play in game could have immensely backfired on him without the A’s pen melting down
Rssmus will retire
colby rasmus will retire at 29? after a 109 ops+…
He’s stated in interviews that he’d like to finish out in Houston and head for his ranch to raise his family. Take it for what it’s worth, but he’s said as.much
How is Nick Markakis “well rounded”. He owns the 9th-lowest SLG% for an outfielder. I like the guy, but if anything he’s an on-base specialist at this point.
He’s still above league average in OPS+ do you think Revere has more power than Markakis just because of his slugging percentage? If teams thought Markakis power was gone he’d probably get a lot more strikes like Revere. Markakis is taking what teams give him hes a very smart baseball player.
Smart =/= well-rounded. His power, speed and defensive range are shot, but I’m not going to complain about a player w/ an OBP north of .375. Gordon is a poor choice simply of the basis of being left-handed
We will have to see when he has a full off season with out neck surgery
hes running a really high babip. next year is his age 32 season. i put him as a league average hitter moving forward, with his defense and baserunning he is probably a second or third division starter moving forward. i.e 1-1.5 war/ year
Kazmir is the real winner in the Houston trade. Lifting that QA likely helps him dramatically
True, but how is Kazmir’s situation different than any of the other pending free agents who were traded at the deadline?
Most teams would sacrifice a comp pick for a David Price or Johnny Cueto. Every year that comp attachment hurts a few pitchers. Given Kazmir isn’t top end and has sketchy health….getting rid of that comp pick sacrifice makes him more palatable for teams. Kazmir looked to be the guy who would lose by having the comp attached to him.
Agreed to an extent.. Several of the teams that I would figure would be in the market for a pitcher like Kazmir will have top 10 picks and their first round pick would be safe.. I agree that removing it entirely has improved the overall outlook for a new contract.. I like Kazmir quite a bit though so I could be a bit biased..
That’s the angle…the teams with a protected pick. Certainly nothing certain in free agency. I actually think he has a solid chance to resign in Houston… Hometown for what it’s worth
I see your point but in practice the comp picks are treated like dollars. Even a Price or Cueto is going to have to take a discount if part of the cost of signing them is the loss of a pick, so they’d lose something too if they were saddled with one. Hard to say if it’s a proportional hit, but it’s going to be something in any case.
If a team looses a comp pick it would actually save them that slot money right? A million or so? Also..not that Price or Cueto have the comp attachment…but I’m not sure that comp value changes negotiations on a 200m deal. A team isn’t letting those guys walk because they can’t recoup a projected and gambled value.
It may be difficult to factor in the discount for the loss of the comp pick but the economics tell us it has to be in there somewhere (for all but the teams with the protected picks at least). A player on the bubble like Kazmir is more likely to end up with his original team because of the comp pick (assuming he gets the QO) than someone with the quals of Price or Cueto. I know some teams have been accused of deliberately not signing a draft pick to save the slot money but I wonder how often that actually happens.
With teams being valued close to a Billion…these millions are pocket change. I don’t think they consider it much. Yeah, they could boot the draft pick…but that’s less to do with the actual money and more to do with having it to apply to a better pick later….remove that slot system and teams wouldn’t give a darn. The while amateur draft holds down domestic values.
The economics of the game has definitely led to free agent salary inflation. Just the same, the teams are all working within the same economic system. Meaning, a free agent who is freighted with a comp pick will be able to get “that much” less than the same player if he was not encumbered. How much is that much? Dunno, but it has to be something. Maybe someone will try to figure it out, but they better hurry (have a feeling this system will change again with the next CBA). As for the amateur draft it probably does suppress payouts for the first few rounds anyway. Not sure it does much beyond that point, given the kinds of signing bonuses we’ve seen given to amateur free agents out of the DR and elsewhere.
I don’t see why it would be hard for Leake to get 5 years given his age and numbers. I’d give him a 6th year, maybe as an option, just so the AAV could go down. I think he might be the best value candidate on the list.
In this day and age…a solid #3 like Leake is very undervalued by the general fan bases. We see quite a few teams rolling out #5 starters in 3-5 roles
It’s almost to the point with Leake that he’s gone hipster…he’s getting a lot of spotlight. His value has boosted for sure.
If he performs well for the rest of the year I would be shocked if the Giants didn’t make a huge push to resign him with Hudson/Lincecum/Vogelsong all coming off the books.
I could definitely see that happening. Seems like a very San Francisco move
I like Gallardo in Arizona. Good mid rotation arm or #2 type for them. K’s are gone, but he’s learning to adjust..which is something that many strikeout pitchers never accomplish. B Grade moves like Gallardo or Leake are where teams win pennants
I am really curious to see what kind of contract Shark gets. I can’t remember what was offered to him when the Cubs were trying to extend him (which I am glad they did not because they got Russell out of the deal) but I wonder if it’s a situation where he will be shooting himself in the foot for not taking it. Again, I can’t remember what it was (thought around 12m a year).
I believe the initial offer was 5-years between $55-60 million back in late 2012 / early 2013. Samardzija asked for $80 million over the same number of years, and the Cubs eventually offered him that prior to the 2014 season. But by then, Samardzija had upped his asking price.
I want to say that they were trying to extend him even right before they traded him around the 4th of July in 2014. I think at that point is was back down to the 60 million range. Since they couldn’t get a deal done, they shipped him off. I think they try and sign him again in the offseason to be honest. He could take the 5th spot, and they can hopefully sign one of Price, Cueto, Zimmerman, or Greinke.
Samardzija may be having a down year but he is not a #5 yet.. His FIP is a solid 3.79 and by the end of the year he still will have less than 1000 innings on his arm. He is going to be a solid innings eater with #2 potential.. Cashman is going to chase him as well as several other teams. A 5 year deal is more than likely what he will get based on his past performance, durability and low mileage on his arm..
White Sox will also likely try to resign him.
I am not labeling him as a #5. I just see the Cubbies making a strong push to get him back and in their rotation, he is about a 4/5, depending on if they can grab one of the aces of next years draft class.
Let’s just say they get Price and Shark. It would probably look like:
Price
Lester
Arrieta
Hammels
Shark
They won’t get Shark and Price. That’s an expensive rotation well before they’ve reached extension point with guys like Bryant
They have the funds to maintain one of the largest payrolls in all of baseball. I don’t think they would have any problem signing both (money wise. Actually attracting big time FA will be their issue I think) and have money to throw at Bryant.
I’m not so sure it’s the funds more than it is the philosophy they work by. Even though in this case that’s a HUGE outlay
keep dreaming haha
Obviously that is a perfect storm. I don’t think they get both but it’s no different then them trying to get shields this last offseason. I have no doubt in my mind that if they got him too they would still try to go for one of the aces this coming offseason. Cubs are in a tough spot though because they have a young team who have a lot to prove. It will make it hard to try to convince someone like price that they are in the right direction to winning a WS. Its not out of the realm of being possible they make a big splash this offseason depending on where they finish this year.
You talk as if the Dodgers and Yankees don’t exist.
I can’t tell on my phone who this is directed to but those are 2 perfect examples of teams who have multiple players on hefty yearly salaries. Cubs are a large market team and if they are on the fringe of the playoffs at the end of the year I have no doubt they start spending that money
Cubs might spend on Price and a rental next summer… But its not likely they spend on Price and Shark as free agents
They do exist… But even I see the Cubs as logical. I’m fair with the Cubs…but their hanger on fan base makes my skin crawl. That said I have a friend who’s 78…Cubs fan since 1945…best baseball fan I know
They didn’t get Shields last offseason…exactly. They won’t cough up what Shark wants. Besides, his preference might be for the south side who could possibly outspend the Cubs on his service
Perfect storm for sure…that’s like Hurricano St. Katrinhelens going off
they offered 5/70. he wanted 100 mil because homer bailey.
Guessing the Shark reps have dropped the Bailey comps
Jay Hey for 8 years 180mill? He’s good, but not THAT good. He’s still working on developing an offensive identity, after 4-5 years in the show. I say Cards offer 150, take it or leave it. We’ll get a nice draft pick if it doesn’t work out.
Yeah, he’s a tough one. But if he does get eight years, then $22MM a year isn’t really superstar money. And that does get him around 180. But maybe he flips it and takes the best four-year deal he can get, like 4/100, and take a shot a monster deal.
A $22.5 million AAV would put him in the top-20 in the league. A $180 million deal would put him in the top-10 in total money. So it’s tough to say that this isn’t ‘superstar money.’ It most certainly is.
Is he worth that much? Absolutely not. But guys like Hayward NEVER hit the market anymore, and that’s what makes him so attractive for a lot of teams – but it’s also what makes this hard to gauge. I really can’t remember the last time someone like Hayward hit the market at 26. It’ll be interesting to see how the market reacts to it.
Salaries being what they are..I wouldn’t be surprised to see that 4 year deal play out. On an 8 year deal he could have a back end that’s very team friendly… Just taking in salary inflation.
Is he really working on developing an offensive identity? It seems like he’s pretty settled. His 2015 slash is nearly identical to his career numbers, as are his OPS+ and wRC+.
He is consistent yes, but doesn’t profile well in one particular spot in the order. A club paying that much money isn’t looking to experiment. His defensive runs saved is the bigger selling point, at this point in his career.
Not many hitters debut at 21 and settle at 25.
starlin castro?
I would never cap a players ceiling until they’re at least in their early 30s. Just a real shortsighted view to take. Anyone can get better at any time.
Then show an example of a player who hit about the same for five years and then suddenly took a leap forward. Can’t think of anyone (outside of the PED context). He’s almost certainly what he is at this point: An above average but not superstar offensive player who is the best in the game at the least important position. Whatever that adds up to.
Castro is all contract contingent. If the Cubs were sick of him and wanted to send cash with him…he’s worth that chance. I’ll take that down market over the sharks swimming around guys like Leake and Heyward. Part of their value is that they’ve been underpaid. Totally different positions and scenarios of course
Jayson Heyward will be hard pressed to get 120 million. No way are the cards offering 150, I don’t think they’ll offer 120 for that matter.
Heyward’s last 36 games: 0 HR, 8 RBI. That’s almost 1/4 of a season.
He’s 26 in 2016. He’s not THAT good….yet. He also hasn’t entered his prime yet.
this automatically assumes all players are on the same age curve.
I’d rather make that assumption on him than not. He’s done nothing to warrant otherwise.
I’d like him if GMS undervalued him as much as the fans often do.
He’s already played 5 1/2 years in MLB, so I think what you see is what you get. He’s just peaked early a la Pujols.
The same thing was said about Andruw Jones..
What a player though… And Jones could flat pick it in CF
While he should get $150M+, I don’t see the Cardinals offering even that much given the emergence of Grichuk and early positive returns on Piscotty along with Holliday and Jay (if the latter isn’t traded) still under contract for next year.
Before he was traded I would have said it was only 50-50 that Price broke $200M. But with no draft pick loss attached to him any more there’s less excuses for teams to not go all out. My guess is the yanks and Cubs will be the most serious bidders with the Jays, Red Sox, and possibly the Mets making strong bids.
The Mets!? Who are loaded with pitchers and who rarely spend money will give Price $200+ million, good joke
They wouldn’t be the first team in history that decided to suddenly spend or the first team that decided they best way to address an offense deficiency was to spend on better pitching. If they just miss the playoffs or lose in the first round then things could change. I’m just throwing it out as a possibility, not a definite. Besides, almost every team will probably put in at least a token bid.
Sure, both have been done…but that doesn’t make the Mets likely to apply both philosophies. They’d want more balance on the roster…some bats..I just don’t see that as wise
The Mets have, legitimately, 6 or 7 starters available for next year and beyond already in Harvey, Matz, Syndergaard, Wheeler, deGrom, and Niese (Montero exists as well). I’m sure they’ll need another starter as a fail-safe if/when one of them gets injured, but there is no reason for them to go after Price. It would be absurd.
I’ll be surprised that he doesn’t have a press conference with Maddon in Chicago
Yeah, I’d say having Maddon gives an advantage to the Cubs unless one team writes a blank check.
Cubs didn’t bring in Hamels, and virtually remained silent at the deadline…. They have sites on Price
Keep drinkin’ the Heyward koolaid. He’s hardly worth $100m, much less $180m. If he’d go back to his rookie season, with his aggressive approach at the plate, I’d see it. But the type of player he’s become, unless you’re going to pay him top tier money for defense, which is sure to fall off, it’s an overpay.
Its not Kool Aid, its the state of the game. If Choo can get $130MM, hard to see why JHey can’t get $180MM being an FA at age 26.
Its mind boggling how many posters in here are totally disregarding how young he is and acting like he has reached his ceiling. Mind boggling. How can you be so short sighted?
you have morenosdisease my friend, keep trying to convince yourself this wont be a bad contract. that is why your team is falling in the tank, once again.
hes so young so can get better, but im sure u have written off starlin castro, elvis andrus etc etc
Castro & Andrus have largely been horrible though, Heywards been a star most of his career and he’s entering his prime. There hasn’t been a better free agent hitter to invest in because no one has been as young as him.
Two Atlanta GM’s sure didn’t feel that way.
Maybe Atlanta wanted Shelby Miller
Real easy for people to write off players because they come up early and don’t turn into stars. If I’m buying on Castro or Heyward…I’m doing it now…Heyward might not be a steal…but Castro could be
I’d want his next four seasons at the right price. I wouldn’t want to overpay on hype though.
In this case it doesn’t really matter how young he is. He’s been in the majors long enough that we know what he is. And his calling card, defense, is always the first to decline. I wouldn’t go over $100m for him and I seriously doubt anyone will. If the Cards don’t keep him, he’ll be that guy who signs very late for what looks like a bargain.
It absolutely matters what his age is. Even if a team doesn’t think he will get better, they can still offer an 8 year contract and it be over before he’s 35. That makes an 8-10 year deal much less risky than your typical 29-31 year old free agents.
I predict 5 years $75 million. If Heyward holds out for $150 million, then he could be unsigned when spring training starts, and end up taking 1 year $15 million from someone.
Maybe…or he gets in an extreme niche analysis bidding war that makes the Dave Stewart types wake up and start bidding
I can see a repeat of gary matthews jr. to the angels regarding heyward. Not quite the disaster but heyward just isn’t worth an aav north of 20mill.
Are you insane? Mathews was 32 in his first season with the Angels, Heyward will be 26 next year. Please stop trolling.
here we have an angels fan already trying to prepare himself for another bad contract i see. GMJ had .313/.271/.495 triple slash. I wasn’t really compa
You literally said you think Heyward will fall off at age 26 the same way Gary Matthews Jr. did. No. Just, no. Heyward is easily worth 8/$200M.
Only issue I have isn’t really with Heywards game, but just that he needs to fit a teams profile. Not sure I like him as the centerpiece of a lineup…but I do like him with a team that afford to plunk him in the #2 hole basically. I suppose he’s a little like Alex Gordon…he’s benefitted by excellent roster construction around him. Worst case scenario is that he ends up Nick Markakis.
I enjoy watching him with the Cardinals. I believe that he is a major reason the Cardinals have the best W-L percentage in MLB. He’s a very cerebral player and the Cardinals are the perfect team for him. But I don’t think that he’s worth 8 years at a $25M a year AAV. Maybe I’m misreading the market.
I do believe he will re-sign with the Cardinals.
8 years for $200m? Lol!! No way he even comes close to that.. He is a solid player but in no way is he capable of putting a team on his back and carrying them to the playoffs. You can say 26, 26, 26, until you are blue in the face but that still doesn’t mean he is going to turn into a superstar in 2 years.. Compare a few players that signed top dollar contracts at age 26 and when they turned 29 or so. Teixeira marginally improved and that could easily be attributed to Yankee stadium. Pujols stayed pretty consistant.. Jeter actually took a step back from his age 26 and age 29 seasons.. To think Heyward is going to dramatically improve with his bat when he hits his “prime” years is absurd.. He is worth a contract similar to Jayson Werth’s deal with the Nationals..
I was actually thinking the same thing, in regard to Heyward / Werth. When Werth was signed by the Nats, the contract was criticized by most in baseball. But, the contract was a “sign” that the Nats were willing to spend money and put together a contending team.
I think this is a similar situation, wherein Heyward only gets 8/160 from a team that is willing to overpay as a symbol of putting together a contending team.
I have tried for years to comment on this site but for some reason it just never works.
Maybe its because you were trying to comp Gary Matthews Jr with Jason Heyward. No one wants to see that.
do you get a little upset when guys flourish for the rangers and your angels over pay them then they suck? GMJ, Hamilton, CJ. But then you realize you have mike trout and that makes it better. LOL.
Angels can thank Jack Z in Seattle for Trout… “Hey, guys, ya got Trout on the board at #2…but ya know…how’s about Ackley?”
I think Ackley is going turn his career around in New York. Z is going to look foolish for basically giving him to the Yankees..
Ackley might…but I don’t think Jack Z will look foolish in light of how abysmal he was in Seattle. It’s funny watching comments about Seattle…not yours…just in general…the games start so late back east that it’s almost like a different universe.. Like a hidden team. Ackley was horrid…he needed a change
You cant call anyone over 30 an “elite defender” – that list is basically Ozzie Smith and a bunch of “pretty good”s.
What about Yadier Molina?
Molina’s defense has dropped drastically the last few years.
Omar Vizquel
Any team giving Cespedes a 7-year deal is probably making a big mistake. He has great power, and is a good defender, but his OBP skills are quite terrible. I say he’ll get something around Sandoval’s contract, maybe with an extra year.
Also pretending like his defense won’t get worse over his 30s is a joke.
Not sure he gets there. Heck, I’m not positive about six. It’s early yet.
I’d imagine 5 for 90. Maybe an option tacked on at the end. Wonder if the mets will get it done?
He is exactly what the Mets need.. Unfortunately, they have Cuddyer ($12.5m!! ouch) Lagares and Granderson all under contract next year.. I suppose they could let Duda walk since he will be a free agent and move Cuddyer to 1st but I think that would be a mistake.. Cuddyer is turning into one of the biggest blunders the Mets have ever made.. The potential loss of that really good draft pick (would have been 14th overall) should have made Alderson pass in the first place..
I think Mike Leake might be the most appealing guy on this list for value. His age will get him a 5-7 year deal which will scare off some teams, but he could probably pitch effectively in any ballpark in the league do to his groundball ways. And you wont need to give up a pick to get him which is good
Still don’t get why a guy drawing a major league salary would shoplift.. But that was early on
Lol, I had forgotten about that.. Wasn’t it something big too like 5 shirts or pants? Something that couldn’t be construed as accidental.. I do agree with JF though.. Once Leake gets away from the Great American Ballpark his stats will greatly improve and he could easily land a 6 year deal with an AAV of $14m or so.. I could see him going a different route as well and signing a one year deal with the Giants or Mariners.. A year in a pitchers park could set him up for a really nice payday..
Not sure he goes one season. Hes in line for a nice payday now
For the life of me, I do not understand the fascination with Justin Upton any more then I did with his brother.
Someone will pay. Someone always pays. But at least 2 out of every 3 years it will be something. Stick him in a bandbox park and he can hit the wall a lot and sometimes over it. Much better in the AL where he can DH.
I understood when he was cost controlled, but not at expense
Why would he be better in the AL? He’s a perfectly fine outfielder. He’s still in his mid 20’s and can jack 25-30 HR’s from the right side. He’s basically the same player as Cespedes, a few years’ younger.
To me, Cespedes is an intense player that comes to play every game. He will take players out as a baserunner on double plays, he is an above average OF that can play all 3 spots and has one of the 2 or 3 strongest and accurate throwing arms in MLB. He is a terrific clutch player,
I don’t see Justin Upton as being the sort of player that impacts games as Cespedes does. But I can understand the statistical comparison.
I completely agree with you on Upton.. A few years ago he was hyped to be the next major superstar.. He is a very solid middle of the order bat but he seems to be lacking the drive and intensity of true superstars.. Personally, I wonder if he will take a step back and stop working hard to improve his game once he gets his big deal.. I wonder if Melvin Upton would still be a solid player if he had only signed a 2-3 year deal.. I have a feeling in 2017 when Melvin is in a contract year he will step it up a notch and will become a 3 WAR player looking for a new contract.. I would take Cespedes over Upton any day..
Heyward is EASILY going to get 200+ aggregate and 20+ AAV. Check out Dave Cameron’s piece from last year on frangraphs.
MLBTR, I don’t know what the policy is regarding linking up fangraphs here so please don’t ban me for this:
fangraphs.com/blogs/estimating-jason-heywards-next…
Look at the comps there, then take into account heywards age and general contract inflation in the baseball financial environment he’s going to market in – yep, 10/200 is the baseline scenario.
I can see Price getting 240/8 given what Scherzer got just last season.