The Twins are “closely monitoring” the market for catchers, including the likes of A.J. Pierzynski, Derek Norris, Jonathan Lucroy and Alex Avila, reports Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.
It’s not certain at this time how available each of those names might be, but Berardino writes that the Braves are open to trading Pierzynski, which comes as no surprise when considering that he’s a 38-year-old veteran playing on a one-year deal for a club that is seven games back in its division. One can imagine that the Tigers, who as of last night are reportedly planning to be sellers at the trade deadline, would be open to moving free-agent-to-be Avila.
Pierzynski has a $2MM base salary in 2015, of which roughly $841K remains. His contract also contains incentives based on games started behind the plate. To this point, he’s already earned $100K for reaching 60 starts, and he’ll earn an additional $50K for his 65th, 70th, 75th and 80th starts at catcher. He’ll earn $100K every fifth start from 80 through 100, allowing him to max out at $2.7MM. He’s hitting .280/.316/.432 with six homers this season, and it’s also worth noting (as Berardino points out) that the Twins reportedly made Pierzynski a two-year offer to return to Minnesota prior to the 2014 season. He instead chose to sign with Boston.
Minnesota’s plenty familiar with Avila, whom they’ve watched behind the plate for the Tigers dating back to 2009. However, he’s earning a not-insignificant $5.4MM this season and has played in only 34 games, hitting .192/.333/.293. Avila’s career behind the plate has been threatened by concussions, and as a club that is more than familiar with the ill effects of concussions (see: Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, Corey Koskie), the Twins may desire more certainty.
Both Norris and Lucroy would represent long-term upgrades over incumbent Kurt Suzuki as opposed to mere rentals. Norris is under club control through 2018 and is eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter, but he’s also struggled in his transition from Oakland to San Diego. Norris has followed up a .270/.361/.403 line in 2014 with a .231/.278./.401 line in 2015. He’s certainly hitting for more power — he has a 38 point increase in his ISO, and his 11 homers already top last year’s 10 — but his walk rate and average have plummeted. Norris’ line-drive rate is down from 18.7 percent to 12.9 percent, which, paired with an increased strikeout rate, helps to explain the dip in his average.
Lucroy could very well be the prize of the catching market. He’s a premium defender in terms of both controlling the running game and pitch framing, and he’s also produced a .291/.353/.455 batting line dating back to 2012. His production has been slowed this season, in part by a fractured toe sustained earlier in the year. However, he’s hitting .274/.335/.382 dating back to June 1, and two of his three homers this season have come in the past eight games. Lucroy’s contract, though, is perhaps the most appealing part about a potential acquisition; he’s earning $3MM in 2015 before a $4MM payday in 2016 and a $5.25MM club option for the 2017 season.
That Minnesota is seeking an upgrade behind the plate is reasonable, considering the difficulty that Suzuki has had at the plate since signing a two-year, $12MM extension on July 31 last year. Suzuki had an excellent first half in Minnesota, but it was largely BABIP driven, and he closed out the year hitting .248/.290/.366. This year’s been even worse for the former A’s/Nats backstop, as he’s hitting just .227/.283/.303, making him one of the least effective bats in baseball. He’s also caught just 19 percent of attempted base stealers — 13 percent below the league average. The Twins, though, value the comfort that the pitching staff has with Suzuki, his clubhouse presence and his durability.Those positive traits, of course, would still be in play were he to transition to a backup role, even if only for the remainder of the 2015 season.
If the front office in SD believes in Hedges I wonder if they’ll trade Norris.
Defensively Hedges is far and away MLB ready. Only question is his offense which has always been the question with him.
Mariners and Twins are looking for a catcher. Wonder if Preller will take calls and trade Norris if the price is right.
If I’m Preller, I’m selling high on Norris. Yes, his AVG and walk rate have decreased, but the power remains – and that’s an anomaly among the “big” offseason acquisitions (e.g. Kemp, Middlebrooks, Upton) and a rarity compared to other catchers in the league. Plus, he’s under control for three more years and a great clubhouse guy.
In a related vein – great point about Hedges not being offensively MLB ready. I think Austin’s struggles makes any Norris trade that much harder to swallow. Sure, he has a cannon behind the dish and is a great catch-and-throw guy, but does that defense make up for a likely steep and prolonged learning curve to hitting big-league pitching?
Last, I am really disappointed with the way the Padres FO has handled Hedges’ development. After the gutting of our system, he and Renfroe were our top two MiLB’ers entering the year. To me, if you want to enhance – if not simply maintain – a prospect’s value, they need everyday playing time. Thus, it’s frustrating to see Hedges get promoted after only 71 ABs at AAA, and then proceed to play in 22 games over the last two and a half months at the MLB level. I can’t say I blame him for not hitting, it’s hard to do so when you’re only getting three ABs a week. Equally important, misusing him has completely destroyed his value. Rather than playing at El Paso every day, the cat’s out of the bag and everyone is know well aware of his troubles hitting MLB pitching. Hopefully either a) the Padres send him down and let him get regular AAA ABs and/or b) He realizes he is only 22 and retains some confidence of his ability.
Well the original plan was to try and get Aj Ellis in the Kemp deal. But they settled with Tim Federowiz.
He blew his knee out in Spring training and that kinda forced their hand to call up Hedges. Much like Gyorko being injured and little to no production last year forced their hand on Jace Peterson being up early. They got no production from Nieves and Norris was playing too much.
I don’t think it ruined his value. It’s been known his bat has issues since he was in AA hitting .240ish in the minors. He’s only 22 and defensively sound all around. Even if he’s A .240 hitter he’s worthwhile.
I understand about the plan with Federowicz, when he got injured, but why not call up a guy like Rocky Gale or even Griff Erickson? Both of them are much older (both 27 y/o) and have ceilings that are significantly less than Hedges. They would be of the same value to the big club as Hedges is now (a serviceable back-up catcher who plays one in every five days). It’s not as if the Padres were entirely out of options.
Point being, if you switch Gale (getting regular ABs in AAA) with Hedges (back-up at MLB), you give more opportunities for the better investment (Hedges) to succeed. Now, the rumors about Hedges are confirmed. Sometimes ignorance is bliss, especially when selling the potential of prospects as trade chips. I just think the Padres really mismanaged this opportunity.
Additionally, I fully agree if Hedges turns out to be a .240 hitter with excellent defensive skills, he’d be worthwhile. But this is one of our top prospects who is only 22 years old. Shouldn’t we give him every opportunity to improve his hitting in the minors before rushing him to the bigs and potentially limiting his ceiling? Sure, if he spends the three years at AAA and never hits, then we call him likely a perennial back-up guy – but why take those developmental years away from him now? Hedges should be just graduating college. Give him his 22, 23, and at least 24-year old seasons to grow and mature as a hitter. If it doesn’t work out, that’s ok. I just don’t want them to rush a a top prospect who still needs seasoning when another perfectly suitable MiLB’er can serve that very same role.
The cat’s been out of the bag for quite awhile on Hedges.. The reason he is up is because backup catcher was a black hole this season.. Preller had tried to trade Hedges the entire off season with other teams not biting.. I had read on here he tried to get Atlanta to take him instead of Wisler. Several teams have very similar catching prospects (Boston’s Vasquez, Atlanta’s Bethancourt, Yankees Romine).. With Romine getting DFA’d and going unclaimed this year it seems that the industry has changed its perception on defensive first catchers the last couple of years..
If Melvin trades Lucroy he better quietly slink out of the state for a while and never show his face at Miller Park again. Lots of fans already hate him and that would push them over the edge.
As a Braves fan, I don’t think there’s another position player (who could be made available over next few months) that I would want in ATL more than him.
While that’s probably true, if Melvin were to acquire a strong package starting with Miguel Sano (or even Byron Buxton), Alex Meyers, and something else…?
As a Brewers fan, I’d have a very hard time getting upset with Melvin trading Lucroy with an offer like that coming back.
Twins aren’t trading Sano or Buxton.
You won’t get Lucroy without one or the other at the least. You need to resign yourself to this fact. My guess is that he’s not on the move anyway.
They won’t deal either and especially not Sano and Meyer, plus your suggesting something else on top of that? If they could get that deal then yes, you take it and run. Not happening though. Best they could probably hope for would be a Meyer/Arcia/Walker III type package, and that’s not enough.
I’m not suggesting the Twins should trade either (or both) of these players, nor would I blame Minnesota for NOT wanting to part with the crown jewels of the farm system, but the fair market value for a player such as John Lucroy would demand this kind of return at a minimum in order for Milwaukee to even consider this action. And Melvin probably is going to ask for Sano, Buxton, Meyers, AND another one or two highly regarded prospects up front (like Jose Berrios). As he should. Players like Lucroy come around only so often. That’s a huge price tag, though, and NOBODY should blame Minnesota if they said no to THAT package. But they will need to buy a lot if they really want him, that’s inarguable.
If Doug Melvin were to put Lucroy on the market, there are at least 20 teams that would be scrambling against each other to acquire him. Obviously, the Giants wouldn’t (no need to, with Posey). St. Louis probably doesn’t get involved (but with Molina being older and more expensive, they may at least “kick the tires” a little bit, although I highly doubt they get involved). Even teams with no postseason aspirations this year and/or next would IMMEDIATELY be interested in acquiring Lucroy. Seriously? What teams other than San Francisco or even maybe St. Louis wouldn’t get a significant upgrade by trading for Lucroy? Toronto perhaps, since they have Martin? Maybe Boston, with Swihart? San Diego may not be looking to add a player like Lucroy, since they have Hedges close? Maybe even the Mets, with d’Arnaud and Plawecki? Probably not the Cubs, since they have Schwarber? That right there leaves 22 teams who’d very likely be making phone calls, and many of them with something significant to offer back. That’s a pretty small list of teams that are anywhere from probably to definitely not getting involved in what will be a huge bidding war here.
Lucroy, with his production, age, contract, and playing THE premium position on the diamond, the demand would rightly require nothing less than a very strong prospect package. This is just how it is.
And with Minnesota having the season they are, and in good position to make the postseason for the first time since 2010. Lucroy is a player you can build around, especially if you are close. Minnesota can develop talent in their farm system. Even if they emptied their farm system to get Lucroy, his cost is so minimal that they can go on a huge spending spree in the offseason if they really felt they needed to.
If the conversation starts with him wanting Buxton, Sano, Meyer AND Berrios the Twins laugh and hang up the phone.
I would think the conversation starts with Sano, Meyer, and Stewart. I know Luc is at a prime position now, but his lack of arm and injury history suggests he may move off of being a full time catcher at some point (ala Mauer). I get that Melvin will want to go big and that there would be many people that would love to get him, but Buxton, Barrios, Sano, and Meyer? You’re talking 2 top 10 prospects a top 15 and a top 20, almost no one is worth that.
His injuries aren’t the kind that raise durability issues. He’s about as durable as it gets for a catcher. He’s also only 29 (he has a few years yet behind the plate for sure). A top notch pitch framing catcher, and he has thrown out 37% of runners attempting to steal bases this year? That looks to me like he has enough arm.
Add in he would only cost the acquiring team around $9 million TOTAL for the next two seasons after this one, along with less than $1.5 million the rest of this season.
If there is a player worth that kind of package (and I don’t disagree in principle with you, Mikey), it would be Lucroy.
37% this year is completely out of the norm for him though, and in a smaller sample size due to the games he has missed. For his career he’s still only at 26%, pretty well below average. As for the injuries, I know none of them have been directly related to catching, but no matter how you do it (wife drops bag on your foot, foul balls, etc) multiple breaks to your feet and toes will eventually wear on you, especially as a catcher.
37% is below his norm, for sure. And I would be surprised if he stayed at that mark, even the rest of this season, let alone going forward.
But, a catcher in his 20s is more likely to improve in an area of weakness than one who is older, so while 37% may be unrealistic, I’d have to imagine it’s likely he’s naturally improving above what he had done in his career as well.
There are many factors in a catcher having a good, horrible, or even average caught stealing percentage. So it’s also likely some other factors led to both his career 26% rate as well as his 37% rate this season. Hard to say exactly.
But the pitch framing? That’s mostly Lucroy. His success at the plate? Same thing.
The conversation would actually be starting with Minnesota asking Milwaukee what it would want for Lucroy.
“And Melvin probably is going to ask for Sano, Buxton, Meyers, AND another one or two highly regarded prospects up front (like Jose Berrios). ”
HAHAHAHA HA HAH A
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no.
You have to ask for a huge package. That’s the thing.
That all said, I wouldn’t bet even a nickel that Lucroy gets traded to Minnesota. Even though the two teams could match up well as trading partners, that’s such a cost it’s very unlikely, and unrealistic. Minnesota is probably content to let someone else empty their farm for Lucroy, and that’s not a stupid decision to make on their part.
But whether or not they would or should pay that price doesn’t devalue what this kind of player is worth to acquire.
I’m not saying he wouldn’t cost some prospects. But the package you suggest is nothing short of ridiculous. You are significantly overvaluing him, especially in an injury year. Also, the Last time the twins bought high on an “in his prime” catcher they ended up paying a mediocre catcher 23 million a year but twins aside virtually no one is worth sll those guys. Not sure if you’re overvaluing lucroy or undervaluing those young guys but you’re way off
The package he suggested may be nothing short of ridiculous, but with Lucroy being a top catcher who is controllable, affordable, and great defensively, why would you trade him for nothing short of a ridiculous package?
Answer: you wouldn’t unless you want to be fired.
Lucroy is going nowhere, unfortunately.
Only part I disagree with you on is Lucroy not going anywhere in my opinion is not unfortunate at all. Otherwise, I agree entirely.
There is a HUGE difference here, though. For one thing, Minnesota bought in on one of their own players last time. THIS TIME, they would be looking to acquire someone else’s player. For another thing, Lucroy still has 2 1/2 seasons of control, and will cost around $11 – $11.5 million (total) to Milwaukee during the remainder of his contract. Add in that Minnesota will absolutely be competing with other teams for acquiring him, and why would Doug Melvin be out of line asking for a “nothing short of ridiculous” package here?
Remember. Milwaukee DOES NOT HAVE TO move Lucroy. When you have something a lot of people want, and you are NOT desperate to sell, wouldn’t you ask for the biggest payoff possible? OF COURSE YOU WOULD!!!! IF Milwaukee were to actually seriously listen to offers for Lucroy, they would be foolish to try to settle for “lesser packages” just to make a move, because they do not have to move Lucroy at all. If nobody agrees to the price, Milwaukee keeps Lucroy. Certainly won’t hurt the Brewers any to do that.
That is A LOT DIFFERENT than suggesting Minnesota must accept the first proposal Melvin gives them. That is A LOT DIFFERENT than suggesting Minnesota would be wise to make this move. If I was the Twins, knowing that was the price Melvin was asking, I would ABSOLUTELY try to lower that price, or look for a different option that could be of use to me. Maybe I could get away with one of Sano or Buxton, and maybe something else, or Sano and Buxton, and that’s it? Or I try to take back someone else from Milwaukee along with Lucroy, either a high priced, mediocre talent to help lower the prospect cost, or a solid prospect along with Lucroy. Or maybe I try trading lesser valuable prospects to another team for one of their catchers, and let someone else “overpay” for Lucroy.
Neither team has to make this trade, so both should benefit if doing so. But since the seller doesn’t have to sell, and the buyer is still going to pay about $8-$9 million through next year for Kurt Suzuki (who can’t hit, or catch, or throw anyone out, and is also older, too), Minnesota is going to have to “overpay” here if this is what they want.
Neither overvaluing Lucroy, or undervaluing Minnesota’s prospects. Lucroy is already proven. Prospects are not. Top prospects can and often do “flame out.” Other times, “lesser” prospects turn out to be the best piece in the deal. It’s hard to say who actually will be great until they demonstrate it at the highest level.
It wasn’t all that long ago Milwaukee had to give up a top prospect, two middling prospects, and a player to be named later to acquire a half-season of CC Sabathia. The player to be named later (Michael Brantley) turned out to be the best piece Cleveland got back, and “top prospect” Matt LaPorta flamed out. A Top 25 – Top 30 prospect before 2008 just flamed out. A guy Baseball America (for example) rated higher than Jason Heyward, Johnny Cueto, Carlos Gomez, Joey Votto, Carlos Carrasco, Ian Kennedy, Neil Walker, and Max Scherzer (amongst others).
Obviously, a trade that was made 7 years ago, involving different types of players and different scenarios aren’t entirely comparable, but there is some context here.
I’m NOT devaluing Minnesota’s prospects at all. They’re highly ranked for a reason. They have tools, talents, and opportunities to use them. They are likely to justify the hype. But they’re still unproven. Just like any other team’s prospects. Until they prove they can, we don’t know if they can or can’t. We can guess. We can many time guess correctly. But often times, even the “experts” get it wrong, too.
LaPorta was a top 30 prospect.. Buxton is the TOP prospect.. How many times has the #1 prospect in the game flamed out?
“LaPorta was a top 30 prospect.. Buxton is the TOP prospect.. How many times has the #1 prospect in the game flamed out?”
Exactly. huge gap from #30 to #1. Also, the guy coming off the Cy Young award got a #30 prospect, but a guy that had one all star season is worth TWO of the top ten prospects in baseball PLUS more… haha
It was a Top 25 – Top 30 prospect (plus 3 other players) in exchange for a pitcher (granted, arguably one of the best in the game at that time) who only had 1/2 season of team control, and an $11 million contract for THAT SEASON ONLY!
We are now talking about a catcher (one of the best in the game RIGHT NOW, both offensively AND defensively), who comes with 2 1/2 seasons of control, and approximately $11 million remaining on his contract for THE ENTIRE REMAINING TIME OF THE CONTRACT!
In 2008, how many teams realistically could have made a move with Cleveland for Sabathia? They required at least one big time prospect (and LaPorta at that time was pretty much universally considered “Can’t Miss,” along with other prospects), and a team capable of picking up around $5 million or so of remaining salary?
In 2015, how many teams could potentially (I’m saying “potentially” as opposed to “realistically” because Lucroy IS NOT officially on the market in any capacity) make Lucroy work for them, and at that price? Almost every single damn team in baseball could find a place for Lucroy behind the plate.
Lucroy in THIS situation IS WORTH A LOT MORE than what Sabathia was worth then. Cheaper, in his prime, lots of team control remaining, position scarcity, and most importantly, a team that DOES NOT HAVE TO TRADE HIM AT ALL! THIS IS WHY Lucroy is worth so much more. Because a team will have to bid against many other teams, and bargain with a seller who has pretty much zero reason to move him, so they have 100% leverage here.
THIS IS LUCROY’S VALUE! This value is so high, however, that Milwaukee is extremely unlikely to trade Lucroy this season. The teams that would be most interested and able to acquire Lucroy have to offer so much up in trade that it probably doesn’t make a lot of sense for their organizations to make this move at this time, and a more marginal upgrade (along with marginal cost) very likely makes more sense to many of these teams, including the Twins.
With Posey, Susac, and Hector Sanchez, the Giants are loaded at catcher. I wonder how many calls Bobby Evans gets about Susac.
You can add the Dodgers, Yankees, Reds, Indians, Royals and Oakland (Beane almost always buys low) to those teams.. I think you are overestimating the market on him by quite a bit.. Don’t get me wrong he is valuable but your package of Buxton/Sano/Meyer plus more is a Buster Posey type get not Lucroy..
LOL–you’re dreaming if you think the Twins will trade Sano or Buxton.
Which is precisely why Minnesota won’t end up with Lucroy. He’s not wrong about what Milwaukee would desire in order to be coaxed into trading Lucroy. You don’t trade a top, affordable, controllable player at a premium position for beans.
I would be thrilled with a Lucroy trade. He doesn’t want to be here and he isn’t liked as much as you make it out to be.
As a Brewer fan, I wouldn’t mind if we trade Lucroy. This is a business and the Brewers aren’t good right now. If we can trade Lucroy/Ramirez for Sano/Arcia – You do it
When you factor in the position, $, control and recent production … I think you are likely to receive a substantial overpay in a trade for Lucroy. I shoot for a massive overpay and move him when you get it. You are likely trading him near his peak value.
The Twins are not giving up Sano. If they would then it wouldn’t be so bad. Personally I am not against trading him either, especially if you can get a huge overpay with the catching market being so terrible, but he most certainly is a fan favorite (not sure what you’re talking about mrtplush, the Lucroy stuff is always the hottest seller, any kind of Luc promo is always a sell out, and the Luc chants still come) and I think you’d anger a lot of people. Whether he really wants out or not, he’s cheap, controllable, and there is no real backup option at catcher.
Sure he is a fan favorite, but he isn’t a Rodgers or Braun. People will get over it.
Did you really just say Braun? If you could get a decent deal for Braun most fans would love to see him pack his bags. Lucroy is WAY more popular that Braun is at this point.
Braun pre circus….I thought you could assume that…guess not
I am a HUGE Brewers fan, and I couldn’t care less about the Packers, but to compare Ryan Braun with Aaron Rodgers for the Wisconsin sports fan base? That’s just crazy talk. And I DO like Ryan Braun, and I couldn’t give a damn less about Aaron Rodgers. Lucroy is very likely more popular in Wisconsin than Ryan Braun is, too. Even amongst the more passive fans here. Probably also even amongst fans that don’t give a damn about baseball and the Brewers.
That said, most fans wouldn’t want or expect the Brewers to just give Braun away, no matter what his off-the-field history is. Most fans would accept the fact that Ryan Braun probably would never have the kind of value to another team that he currently and will continue to have in Milwaukee. With the expensive years coming up with Braun, the Brewers would be foolish not to at least listen to offers, but no need to give him away either.
I’m not suggesting they’d give him away, they absolutely should not. And in most cases no one will take him without us eating most of his salary which makes it dumb to move him at all. With his contract and history there is no way you ever get fair value for him, so he will stay here. Just saying if you could get a good deal for him he would not be severely missed like he would have been 4 years ago and many fans would relish the chance to get rid of him and start repairing the bad image he’s given us.
I was talking the pre circus Braun. You know back in 2011.
And 2011, you probably were right. If that’s what you meant, I can’t really disagree with you.
Love to get Lucroy. And, a small correction: Santana is 41% below league average in throwing out base stealers…
Not sure what you’re referring to with the correction. There’s no mention of any Santana in the post. Reference is to Suzuki, who, at 19% on the season, is 13% below the league average of 32%.
Twins won’t give up Buxton, Sano or Berrios (nor should they), but I wonder if a package of Oswaldo Arcia, Kohl Stewart and another B prospect (Nick Burdi, Jake Reed or Adam Brett Walker) might do the trick.
The Brewers could then market the Arcia brothers for years to come and have a front-end SP prospect in Stewart.
Absolutely NOT to that package. That would be nowhere near enough for Milwaukee, and there are a lot of other teams that could pretty easily outbid Minnesota with that offer.
If you’re Minnesota, and you are going to get Lucroy no matter what, you WILL be offering at least Sano, plus one of Buxton or Meyers, and probably Berrios as well, along with a “lottery ticket” type prospect down at the lower levels of the system.
If you don’t, think about what a team like the Dodgers (who absolutely could and should get involved) could offer. Urias or Seager, plus Holmes or Jose de Leon, and something else? Which would you take. Never mind what other teams could offer, like Houston, for example. And so on.
The Brewers have ALL of the leverage here. They DO NOT HAVE TO move him. If they want to go after the postseason next year, it won’t be Lucroy’s contract or performance that hold them back from spending like drunken sailors on shore leave to do so. They can trade other players to reload their farm system. They can hold onto Lucroy, and that’s not a poor decision at all.
Whoever wants Lucroy would and should pay dearly for him.
You do realize that Buxton was the #1 rated prospect in baseball yes? Playing CF as a 5 tool player who is 21. There is about zero % chance the Twins would trade Buxton in a straight 1 for 1 for Lucroy.
You aren’t geting 4-5 Top 50 prospects for him, they can ask for the moon, but it would never happen.
I do realize that, yes. It is however easier to find a centerfield prospect (even one of the best we’ve seen in a very long time), than an elite, very cost-controlled catcher in his prime who can hit AND defend the position.
Add in the fact that Lucroy would be in demand by at least 2/3 of the league if he’s placed on the market? Oh yeah, Minnesota WILL have to pay a lot to get him.
Whether or not they SHOULD isn’t the debate here. You can argue (and you’re probably right) that Minnesota will not pay that kind of price, and just say forget it. Minnesota wouldn’t (and shouldn’t) be blamed for bowing out at that point, or at least trying to negotiate a better deal from their side of this. Ultimately, the cost may just be too much for the Twins, and there’s nothing wrong with them for deciding that.
But that doesn’t change Lucroy’s value. Milwaukee does NOT have to sell, can accomplish what they want doing something else, and there will be a hell of a lot of teams that would be very, very interested.
I understand you are saying that the Twins would have to overpay if they wanted to get Lucroy. That makes sense and they likely would have to, but when in the world did Lucroy become Mike Trout?
I don’t even think you could get a Sano, Buxton, Berrios and another prospect for Joe Mauer when Joe Mauer was a catcher. And Mauer was at least twice the catcher Lucroy will ever be (probably even more than twice the catcher).
Mauer is NOT a catcher who is only owed about $11 million total for the next 2 1/2 seasons though, is he?
How many other catchers are there out there, right now, making Lucroy’s salary, with his amount of team control remaining, in their 20s, with an All-star appearance, and is both good at hitting and catching? That is a pretty small list. Now, how many of those catchers are even remotely possible to be made available for the right offer? That list just got even smaller.
Mauer’s situation and Lucroy’s aren’t truly comparable. Minnesota already had Mauer. They don’t have Lucroy. They would have to persuade someone else to trade them Lucroy, against a lot of other bidders.
Why is this so hard to understand?
Enough with the in his 20’s remarks.. He will be in his 20’s for a little over 10 more months.. It is not like he is 25.. Let’s be realistic here for a change.. It will take more than 1 outstanding breakout season with the bat before you can call anyone elite.. There are at least 10 other catchers around baseball that are having better seasons than him offensively and one of those is Grandal in LA.. A team that you have stated would and should get involved in the pursuit of Lucroy.. Grandal is having a superior season to Lucroy and is even CHEAPER than Lucroy since he is just coming into arb eligibility.. There might be 5 teams (and that is being generous) that would be in on Lucroy.. How would he be a step up in KC (who has a catcher equal too or better than Lucroy and is just as affordable) San Fransisco? New York? Toronto? Baltimore? St. Louis? Chicago? LA? Like I said maybe 5 teams would get involved and of those 5, 4 have bigger needs than catcher..
Again, YOURE the one who isn’t understanding. He said basically, even in 2007/8 time frame when Mauer was better and younger than lucroy is now, with a couple years and around the same amount of money due, I think maybe 16 million, HE still wouldn’t have cost the absurd package your asking for. And a LOT of catchers decline in their 30s, which is where lucroy is for all intents and purposes, especially since he’s had injuries in this age 29 season.
That is exactly what I was saying Phantom. Thank you.
Mauer was on a HOF trajectory at catcher prior to the concussion and I doubt if he was on another team during 2007/2008 and the Twins wanted to trade for him and let’s pretend these exact Twins prospects were around….I’d be very surprised if the cost was a Sano, plus Buxton, plus Berrios, plus another guy.
And like I said, Mauer was a way better catcher than Lucroy could ever even dream of being. That type of package is the type you send out for THE best player in baseball. And that player is Mike Trout and not Lucroy.
If the Twins were to send that kind of package to the Brewers then at minimum they would be getting back Lucroy and Gomez. I still don’t think the Twins would do that deal. They aren’t that desperate.
I agreed that the Twins would likely have to overpay to get Lucroy. That’s true, but to think that the Brewers GM would even have the guts to ask for that type of package is hilarious. This is real life baseball, not MLB The Show.
I looked up the equivalent to what the Twins would be asking for in 2008 for Mauer. They’d go to the Rays and ask for Longoria, Price, Brignac plus another player. I feel like the Rays in no way would ever do that deal and they would laugh if asked. Same way I feel about this Lucroy package created by a fan. Just wouldn’t happen.
So who else are you going to offer for an All-Star catcher with multiple years of team control? Without those two, you have very little that’s enticing to deal. Unless you want to throw in Dozier for Gennett, to which it might be worth talking about.
A top 5 second baseman in all of baseball is considered a “throw in” for Gennett who is having a terrible year and is nowhere near Dozier’s level even if you include Gennett’s other years. Okay then..
I don’t think he meant “throw in” in the usual sense here. I think he meant using Dozier as a key piece in a trade to Milwaukee (and taking back Gennett) to possibly reduce the prospect cost to Minnesota. And perhaps that may be more what Melvin would be looking at, but I doubt it.
But just as Doug Melvin could ask for the world from Minnesota in prospects, Minnesota certainly could counteroffer, and Dozier is at least a very good player.
Lol @ dozier as twins’ counter offer. With the exception of the a’s trading Cespedes (and you see how well that went) teams don’t trade any of the best players on their team while they’re attempting to be buyers at the deadline. Can’t wait to hear what you come up with next
Why would the Dodgers get involved? Grandal has been solid.. Now I know you are off your rocker.. If you think Lucroy is worth Seager even in a 1 for 1 you are nuts.. I am pretty sure you are actually Ruben Amaro Jr. masquerading as a Brewers fan and just checking the boards to see if others are as insane as you are..
Is Mauer himself not a viable option as part-time catcher? It’s not like his bat is so valuable that his legs need to be protected by playing 1B anymore.
Mauer hasn’t played catcher since 2013. I’m guessing he’s only behind the dish again in an absolute emergency.
It’s not his legs, it’s the concussion problems. You can place a good bet down you will never see Mauer catch again.
No, he is not an option. He didn’t move to first to save his knees. He moved to first because he missed the last 6 weeks of the 2012 season due to a concussion. He decided it wasn’t worth the risk to catch anymore and was moved to 1B.
Make a Huge Splash – Lucroy/Gomez/Ramirez for Sano/Buxton//Berrios/Arcia/Walker
Don’t think the Twins want to make a splash. Think they intend to be a playoff contender for the majority of the next 6-7 years.
As a Brewers fan I would love this, but It’s not going to happen even if the Brewers throw in Parra and Fiers…
According to the other Brewers fan in this discussion, that combination of Sano, Buxton, berrios, Arcia and Walker is a starting point just to get lucroy. So generous of you to throw in Gomez and Ramirez.
News flash: Sano is driving that team right now. He’s not a prospect in the trade market. There is less than 0% chance he gets moved.
And that may be true, but that’s not the same thing as saying that he is the starting point in acquiring an elite player, at an elite position, with possibly the most team friendly contract in all of baseball today, is it?
I think too many Twins fans are confusing what I’m saying Minnesota should do with what it would take to do something they may want to do.
That’s not whats happening at all. You admitted yourself you’re a “HUGE” Brewers fan. I think you need to realize how much you’re overvaluing the guy. He’s NOT worth what you think he’s worth. He played 6 years. Two completely average seasons, two very good seasons, then an all star caliber (but not mvp caliber) season… And now he’s had injury problems and has an OPS around .600. Since he doesn’t have an extensive history of having all-star type seasons, this year hurts his trade value.
He’s young enough and under team control enough, and had a nice enough career progression (outside of this year, which matters) that you are right about the farm taking a hit. He’ll cost some nice prospects. But no one that isn’t a “HUGE” brewer fan would ever consider those prospects to be buxton or Sano. They’re worth more than him alone individually and they’re on the MLB rosters. It doesn’t matter whether you’re talking twins, Braves, Angels, anyone else. No team, including the Brewers front office… Only their fanbase… Would think lucroy was worth either one of those guys, let alone your silly fantasy trade idea where the Brewers ask for both PLUS some
He is most absolutely what I think he is worth, because Milwaukee DOES NOT HAVE TO TRADE HIM!!!!!!! And he is one of the most inexpensive players in the entire league, and can be kept around for a long damn time yet. He is absolutely an upgrade to almost every team in the league RIGHT NOW!
Does this point EVER get understood?
No. What you are is so locked in to thinking that Minnesota will make this trade, on these terms, with this trading partner, for this player. They very likely won’t. Because the true value is so damn high. And it needs to be, because, once again, DOUG MELVIN DOES NOT HAVE TO MAKE THIS TRADE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Say that over and over and over again until it finally sinks in.
The. Brewers. Do. Not. Have. To. Make. This. Trade.
I see a good chance that matt wieters will also be on the market, days bordering the deadline.
Any trade for Lucroy starts with Sano or Buxton and extra high ceiling prospects are added on. If not there is no chance for the twins to even have a conversation about him…
Yeah, then he’s not coming to the Twins. They certainly would not give up Sano or Buxton AND hight ceiling players. At that price, he can stay in Milwaukee
I think it’s true but it’s the price to pay. Lucroy now is a top 5 catcher and MVP caliber player with a cheap contract. Even if Sano reaches his full potential and were in his prime currently it wouldn’t be enough to get Lucroy… Proven catchers are worth way more than unproven infielders with limited defensive range… Much less prospects.
Andy;
Catchers are the most important position on the field. Their primary responsibility is to call a game, and handle a pitching staff. Defense is 3rd, and any hitting is a plus. Currently the Twins have a catcher that is very good at the first two, maybe average at the 3rd. From what I’ve read, they’re looking for a back-up catcher.
Can you please list the number of RH power-hitting run-producers with six years of control in MLB?
Even if Kurt Suzuki is all that, Lucroy is a HUGE upgrade here.
So you would rather sit on him for 2 years and watch him walk away? The Brewers are not going to be contenders for a very long time.. The best chance they have at contending in the next 5 years would be to leave the NL Central.. The Cubs, Cards and Pirates are going to be beasts for quite awhile..
If lucroy is so good why do you guys suck. Maybe you should ask the Angels if they would trade Trout and Pujols for Lucroy. Buxton will be batting leadoff and Sano cleanup for a playoff team. Open a window and let some of the smoke out brewers fans.
What am I missing on Lucroy? Hitting .237 with 3 HR and people are mentioning Buxton AND Sano? I know Defense is important too, but offensively is Suzuki even much worse than those numbers?
Only an idiot Brewers homer is mentioning Buxton AND Sano, he wouldn’t require either one to be acquired. But he’s better than the .237/.301/.329 line he’s currently sporting. He’s a career .281/.339/.427 with 15 homers per 162 games. And he’s got a couple affordable years left on his contract. He should get a nice little package in return, but it’s being grossly overstated.
This is a ludicrous discussion being lead by delusional Brewers Fans. Lucroy is a decent catcher but hes currently in the midst of an injury plagued slump season.
Sano and Buxton both made their major league debuts and are the crown Jewels of the Twins farm system. Berrios is not far behind them and while not a crown jewel is easily one of their top 2 or 3 pitching prospects that’s knocking on the door.
Theres NO-WAY on God’s Green Earth that they part ways with Sano or Buxton for Lucroy. Its a non starter. Terry Ryan should be fired if he did. Thats a HUGE overpay for a soon to be 30 catcher, whose mired in the worst season of his career, battling injuries and only has 2 seasons of team control left.
This would be a BAD BAD deal for Minnesota. Look elsewhere for a catcher.
And that would most likely be the best decision for Minnesota to make. There is nothing “delusional” about that. Nor was there anything “delusional” about what kind of cost a team would demand from another to be talked into even considering trading such a player when they have no reason or interest to trade to begin with.
Does not mean that this happens. It is almost guaranteed not to, and that’s not a bad decision for either Milwaukee or Minnesota here if Lucroy stays in Milwaukee. These two teams do have other ways they can match up in a trade, and the return Milwaukee would demand would be most certainly a lot more palatable to Minnesota for those other players. Minnesota can also find an improvement (albeit a much lesser one) over Suzuki elsewhere, and those other, lesser options, would have the benefit to the Twins of a lesser cost in prospects to them.