The much vaunted sellers market could soon favor buyers – at least for starting pitchers, observes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal figures GMs with players like Cole Hamels or Johnny Cueto should be motivated to act quickly. As he notes (tweet), Hamels and Cueto are already joined by Scott Kazmir, Mike Leake, Dan Haren, Mat Latos, and four Padres hurlers. Closer to the deadline, we could see Jeff Samardzija, Yovani Gallardo, and David Price join the trade block among others. If there is any point in the sellers’ favor, it’s that every club feels like it needs more pitching.
- Agents prefer for their star players to be traded, tweets Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. Players with expiring contracts become ineligible for a qualifying offer. As we’ve seen in recent seasons, clubs can be very deliberate about signing a top free agent with a qualifying offer attached. The bonus pool rules instituted in the last collective bargaining agreement ensure that some teams will carefully guard their access to young talent rather than ink an expensive veteran.
- A “rival evaluator” tells Buster Olney of ESPN (Insider only) that he expects the Padres to trade Shields. The source put the odds anywhere between 75 and 90 percent. Of course, that’s just the opinion of one anonymous source. Shields’ market is liable to be complicated, and I could see it extending into August.
- In other Shields-related news, Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune thinks it could be a mistake to trade the veteran righty. While the Padres may desire to get out from under his back-loaded deal, it would send a confusing signal to the next class of free agents. For what it’s worth, I think this could be overthinking it. The Padres don’t have the same stigma as the Marlins. The Friars could easily market such a trade as comparable to the Red Sox dump of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford.
- Per Olney, multiple teams have engaged the Phillies regarding Hamels. Sources have also indicated that Jonathan Papelbon could be dealt very soon. Philadelphia has long been expected to dump pricey veterans at the deadline, but recent rumors have suggested the club could also stand pat until the offseason.
“The Padres don’t have the same stigma as the Marlins.”
It’s true that they don’t have the stigma of the Marlins, but a lot of people don’t remember that in 1993 the term “fire sale” really took hold with the dismantling of the McGriff/Sheffield Padres.
That was 3 owners ago and most of the players that will be free agents were not 10 years old yet. Doesnt apply today. Trading Shields just puts Padres in a better position to spend as it reduces their 2016 payroll commitment by $21 million. Can get younger if not better AND pick up 3-4 prospects with at least one of them being MLB ready.
I wasn’t trying to say that the Pads deserved a stigma. I was just pointing out that their fire sale was being basically forgotten. The 2 biggest Marlins fire sales happened under different ownership as well. It’s not about the owner, it’s about damaging the brand name.
True. But by the same token we have to look at Preller, not ownership……
He traded off a good portion of his farm system to acquire players. Now he’s marketing every healthy player he received back halfway into the season. He’s also shopping other players he inherited.
As for Shields and the comment about free agents – of course they’re going to be leery about signing with the Padres unless they have no other teams interested in them. Shields signed a 4 year contract with an option for a 5th. Half way through year one he’s being shopped. Is there anyone anywhere that has a clue about what AJ Preller is trying to do with his major league team? Are they a power team? Running team? Pitching team? Small ball team? Old team going for it? Young team rebuilding? All we know for sure is that he doesn’t seem very concerned about defense.
Quality players that work and take risks to become free agents are going to expect a clearer direction their new team is going in, and a far more stable environment.
The problem with this reasoning is the underlying assumption that if a team doesn’t spend $X on Player A, that they will spend it on Player B. Nobody ever seems to consider the third possibility: that they will keep it as profit. Fans and the media can only guess at how much a team has to spend on payroll, and how much they are willing to spend and the track record on the accuracy of these guesses is pretty poor.
Padres would have to eat at least 35mil to trade Shields……….
Exactly. That’s why they probably won’t do it.
They wanted Hamels and settled for Shields…
How bout a 3way deal where Padres get Hamels.
Second team gets Shields (possibly because Hamels blocks them)
Phillies send money to SD. SD makes Shields 3/40m
Phillies get prospects
Phillies aren’t sending any cash in a trade of Hamels. He’d make a lot more money in free agency than his current contract is paying him.
The teams which would afford Hamels will just spend it on s Frontline starter and save prospects. Phillies need to buy better/more prospects by involving a team who can’t/won’t pay a pitcher 20m
The Phillies are sending money in this scenario to SD who eats Shields salary and increases a return from say Toronto or Houston or KC. Teams that are on tight budgets and also being blocked by Hamels so he cant be dealt there.
There are no frontline starters available for as much money as Hamels is owed.
The teams that want to win THIS YEAR, don’t have the option of spending it on FA’s. That is the Phillies market for Hamels.
Sure they can wait. It means not going allin and saving your best prospects. Pat Gillick never traded away at the deadline for the Phillies for a huge add. Instead it was more like Joe Blanton.
Still won a world series.
Teams will weigh future vs present
Oh yes they are! That is, of course, if the Phillies want real good prospects in return.
Padres wont have to eat anything to trade Shields. The Cubs and Giants offered as much as he will make the next 3 years before he signed with the Padres. His peripherals have all gotten better and he is playing in front of one of the worst defenses in baseball with a really bad catcher. Not one team out there believes that he is worthless now than in the last offseason. The Padres could get 3-4 really top prospects for him. Several people in the Chicago have suggested that a trade of Javy Baez, Arismendy Alcantara and two other prospects for Shields and Venable would be a good trade for both teams. None of them mentioned the Padres adding any money to the deal and they are Chicagoland media.
I don’t see the Padres getting 3-4 top prospects for Shields. Teams could’ve signed him last offseason if they really wanted him, and they didn’t. Combine that with his back-loaded contract and his declining performance (I’m not sure what stats you’re looking at, but he has a 4.21 FIP and is giving up a ton of home runs), and most teams aren’t gonna offer a lot. As for the trade at the end, that seems reasonable to me for Shields and Venable, but I wouldn’t expect the other two prospects to be as highly regarded.
I don’t think one needs to run down Shields. He’s a quality pitcher that mentors young pitchers on the staff, and a team leader. But I do agree that with that contract, he is not going to bring back multiple top prospects. In fact, I think that there is a move afoot where we’ll be seeing that teams with players on long-term / high-priced contracts will find that they can only be moved for other players in the same situation, or for a few decent prospects but nothing in the upper level. There is a coming “you bought it, you keep it” mentality in MLB.
The Giants backed out when they re-signed Peavy and Vogey. They don’t want Shields. As for the Cubs, they were unwilling to pay Shields that much money for the 2018 season and they will still have to do that if they trade for him. Neither of those teams are interested in trading for Shields. Especially if we expect to get back top prospects in return.
Yankees need to go get Samardzija and Parra to make this team solid……
What the Yankees really need is an upgrade at SS.
How could we get Tulo????…………..he’s the only upgrade worth trading for…….
You must not pay much attention to the team if you think that SS is the thing they should be looking to upgrade over anything else. While Didi isn’t a star, he’s gotten noticeably better for the team as the season has gone on, from both offensive and defensive perspectives, really become what NY thought they were getting to begin with when they traded for him, and he’s also got youth on his side. It’s not as if the SS market is rich in definite, acquirable upgrades either, it’s a pretty weak market. He’s not going anywhere this season. 2B, on the other hand, deserves some thought, as does top end/middle rotational considerations and maybe a pen arm.
Samardzija? The Yankees? Whose place in the rotation does he take? CC isn’t going to the pen, neither is Eovaldi. Plus, they’re not reading one of their big four (Severino, Bird, Judge, & Sanchez) for Samardzjia…that would be silly.
And Parra? The outfielder? Whose place does HE take? Beltran/Jones is fine, especially for what they’re on the hook for with Beltran. If you meant Parra the reliever, then I don’t get that either.
Not for Samardizija, but i havve a feeling that Eovaldi will be sent somewhere to help the most hated (and loved) team matching a blockbuster deal.
If the Yankees got Samardzjia….CC would have to go to the pen…..like Lincecum last season…..CC could return to the rotation next season…..they also need another bat in RF to force Beltran to the bench he’s done………
CC is being paid $23M this year, and $50M over the next 2 years – and he’s going to be moved to the pen to pitch 60-70 innings a year?
They want him to eat innings, even if he doesn’t do it well.
CC can eat great…but I’m not sure you want him as an innings eater rocking a 5.47 ERA and 1.42 WHIP.
why would any team trade a top MLB ready prospect for a rental? It took two starting pitchers to get A. Russell and only one was a rental.
I’m pretty sure the A’s would be totally fine keeping Kazmir and offering him a QO, and not even being scared if he accepted. He’s still pretty young and 1/14M is an A’s-style move.
Closer to 17, but with escalating SP prices he would be worth it
Wow…$17m is pricey. How do small market teams like the Royals and Mets (womp womp) work with that?
Nobody has ever accepted it. Even if Kazmir was the first he could still be traded.
I think the A’s are in position to obtain a significative return for trade pieces (probably the 2nd highest after the Reds), I expect a lot of of crazy experiences (deals) coming from Dr. Beane’s mind.
Kazmir is the 3rd maybe 4th best guy on the market