The Padres have asked teams about any possible interest in James Shields, Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com reports (Twitter link). The extent of these discussions isn’t known, as the Padres could’ve been simply doing due diligence on trade scenarios rather than seriously gauging the right-hander’s market, though the fact that Shields’ name has been floated at all is a notable step.
Following today’s win over the Rangers, San Diego enters the All-Star break with a 41-49 record that puts them 10 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West and 7.5 games back of the Cubs for the second NL wild card spot. It’s a disappointing spot for a Padres team that made several major additions last offseason, and yet GM A.J. Preller hinted that his club’s trade deadline goal was to reload for 2016 rather than rebuild.
Still, Preller also noted that Padres were open to all options and “the biggest thing we preach to our scouts is to just be prepared for all different scenarios.” Dealing Shields would naturally present a far different “scenario” than dealing, say, a player on an expiring contract. As others have noted, trading Shields just months after the veteran and San Diego-area native signed a large multi-year contract would hurt the Padres in the eyes of both the fans and future free agents who might think twice about signing with the club.
Shields has a 4.01 ERA, 3.28 K/BB rate and a career-best 10.1 K/9 over 116 2/3 innings this season. Advanced metrics (3.30 xFIP, 3.25 SIERA) indicate that Shields’ 4.01 ERA is a bit high, as Shields has been hurt by a 17.9% home run rate — this number is not only well above Shields’ career average, it stands out even more as an outlier given that his home games are at one of baseball’s most notoriously pitcher-friendly ballparks.
Shields is guaranteed roughly $4.1MM for the remainder of this season, then $63MM over the 2016-18 seasons and a $16MM club option (with a $2MM buyout) for 2019. That’s a lot of salary for a 33-year-old hurler, yet since Shields can opt out after the 2016 season, a trading team might prefer such a potentially medium-sized commitment rather than deal for a pitcher on a guaranteed long deal (i.e. Cole Hamels) or one who can enter free agency this winter.
I’m guessing Shields won’t have much trade value; if other teams had wanted him, they’d have pursued him in free agency. I doubt they’ll want both his contract and to give up prospects
Exactly!
Trading Shields less than one season after signing as a free agent feels like a very Marlins type of move.
Especially since his contract is extremely backloaded.
Shields, Cory Mazzoni & Rymer Liriano + 15 million FOR Maybin, Teheran, and Chris Johnson. Who hangs up first?
Braves with a quick “Maybin is ours now, no backsies!”
As a padres fan I love it.you can even keep maybin
The operator
Cole Hamels is cheaper in the long run !
Hamels will cost top prospects and more money. How do you figure?
Because Cole Hamels is going to personally guarantee that he will pitch 40 games a year with a FIP under 2.50 plus take his new team to back to back world series or he won’t take one dime of the almost $100 million that he is owed.. With all of the playoff money coming to his new team he will basically be free..
No one wanted Shields for that much money in the offseason. Why would they give up prospects in order to pay him that much money now? Especially when his contract is backloaded so that they’d be paying him over 20m a year for the next 3 years. Oh and I know he can opt out after 2016, but I don’t see that happening. There’s no way he gets a $44m guarantee for 2017-18 if he opts out.
Yeah pretty much this. I don’t see how half a season (albeit a pretty good half a season) is going to persuade anyone to take on that salary AND give up prospects. Sure teams get desperate at the trade deadline, but unless the Padres are covering salary, they won’t get much. Also, who’s gonna sign with SD in future years if they trade FA’s after half a season?
Shields is actually having his worst season since 2010. If other teams weren’t willing to pay him that much in the offseason, they won’t be willing to pay him that much AND give up prospects now during his worst season in 5 years. Also, his contract is backloaded. He is only getting $10m this year but that jumps to $21m next year so they’d be paying even more.
The Padres probably wouldn’t want much…at least they shouldn’t expect much. They should waive him in August. Think anyone claims him?
Nope, no one would claim him. If they didn’t want him for $19m a year in the offseason they won’t want him for $21m a year now.
Shields belongs in the AL.. I like how every year the talking heads say “this is the year James Shields breaks down” and every year he pitches over 200 innings of good baseball..
I don’t see how your first statement is related to your second.
That is because my first statement had absolutely nothing to do with the second statement..
Why does he belong in the AL? Curious as to your logic here.
The Jays probably want him, they’re short on cash so that’s probably going to have to fix itself somehow.
I don’t think being short on cash is one of those things that just fixes itself.
So you mean I can’t just get $100 million overnight… anyone know how to rescind a Western Union transfer?
I’m obviously suggesting they eat salary.
If they weren’t willing to give Shields $75m in the offseason why would they give up prospects to do it now!?!?
Because they lost their ace for the season, RA Dickey has underperformed and Aaron Sanchez is on the DL
I seem to remember that another team (Cubs?) was chasing Shields when the Padres signed him.. He took a discount to pitch in San Diego.. I also have not read anywhere that the Padres are looking for prospects for him..
Shields did not take a discount to pitch for the Padres. The Cubs weren’t willing to offer him a guaranteed fourth year while the Padres were. That was the tipping point that led to him signing with the Padres. If the Cubs weren’t willing to give him a guaranteed fourth year then, why would they want to do it now? Especially with him having his worst season since 2010. And from what I’ve heard Preller would only give up Shields for a package that “blew him away.” No one is going to give up anything that good for Shields at $21m a year.
Cubs also don’t play their home games in Cali…..
Have you see the rotation? Best offended in baseball and the worst pitching staff in baseball
Can we file this one under “buyer’s remorse”?
Agreed. If there’s any team that would know Shields extremely well, it would be an AL EAST team like the Jays. They knew exactly what they were passing on then. What’s different now?
But Shields gritty teaching effect on a young rotation is where his REAL value lies….look at the Royals now without him…completely fell off the cliff and never heard from again. Granted the Royals have had some rotation issues, but Shields has NEVER been a #1.
Wait, what? Are you talking about the same Royals team that has the best win percentage in the AL going into the AS break? Royals haven’t had a true #1 starter in quite some time. Shields did a great job helping a young team all together, not just the pitching staff. I think Eiland should get some credit for what he’s done…..
You must not have gotten my sarcasm
But I’ll stand by my feeling that Shields is not a true #1. He was behind Price in St. Pete. Yeah..hes the #1_by default if a team doesn’t have a true ace….but he’s more the #2 in a solid rotation.
This is a slightly strange idea from the Pads. It’s somewhere in-between being a seller or buyer.
If they’re looking to reload for ’16, I’d assume they’re looking for ML or ML-ready guys. And yet, they’d be asking a team to take on a lot of salary. I wonder if they’re looking for an “Ace,” or near Ace, caliber of package? That said, if they’re wanting to reload, wouldn’t they want to keep their Ace for next year? These all strike me as contradictory positions, right?
They’re not getting anything for Shields, let alone an ace caliber package for Shields. He has negative trade value.
I’m not saying they are getting any team to bite. I’m speculating what kind of trade the Pads would be looking for. Usually the standard is longterm assets in exchange for short term guys, or salary dump, etc… Here, it’s not clear at all.
Shields to Red Sox for Pablo Sandoval or Hanley straight up .
Padres eat half the contract and the Sox’ll give Marrero (Padres have no SS). Win-win
How about Padres eat half the contract and trade for Baez? Lol
The Triangle of Terror is complete when the Royals take Shields contract back after the Padres offer Wil Myers as compensation.
Cubs should send E-Jax and Junior Lake for James Shields and $32 million. Absurd, but, so are the Padres.
Why not just sent $32m and leave the junk in the junk drawer?
Do I smell a reunion with the Royals?
Red Sox should make this happen. They need someone reliable at the top of the rotation for the second half. If the Padres eat a few million fine, but it’s not necessary. They’re unlikely to make a serious offer to one of the big name free agents this offseason. He’s older than Hamels, and not as good, but the way the rotation is shaping up a right handed pitcher would be more desirable anyway. Not thrilled with Shields as a pitcher, nor having to pay for his inevitable decline, but they have to do something, and Shields is still solid right now.
His BB and HR’s are near what they were for thew entire 2014 season and his ERA is the highest it’s been since 2010—so something’s not right this year. Maybe he’s losing it. How about the Red Sox trade Porcello for him, or Miley, if SD picks up some of his $$$$
Sheilds and Ross plus a lot of cash for Pompey, Pentecost, Castro an Goins
Going to take a lot of loonies to make that happen! I now announce my retirement.. I’ve been waiting to make a Canadian monetary reference for nigh on 8 years.. Done! I’m out!
The responses on this thread are outrageous. They basically amount to a collective of fans grouping up on the Pads and choosing to give them a good ol’ noogie for daring to actually try and field a competitive team for once. You’re right, they should have known better than to, you know, try.
As for Shields value, it’s completely cockamamie to assert that he has “negative trade value” or that he “may have lost it”. Shields is a very streaky pitcher. Look at last year, he had a significant stretch of posting a 5+ ERA. Where did his ERA end up? Right in the low 3’s, where it has…four the last four years running. Want to take wagers on where it lands by season’s end, ESPECIALLY when you consider that the guy has an inflated 17% home run rate? Where one of you found evidence that his home run totals were “right in line” with last year is beyond me…Baseball execs know who this guy is, which is a lot more than you can say about the majority of trade candidates on the summer markets. He’s not Hamels, he’s not Cueto…but NEGATIVE value simply because he’s making 20 mil?
That’s a bit much to say on this FA market (Scherzer, a clear #1 on the market, is almost making 30…this isn’t 2010 anymore…Rick Porcello’s deal anyone?). Certainly his value takes a big hit from a backloaded contract, but his value as a player is still solid enough to withstand that hit and represent a positive acquisition. And for the age thing, can you give me one valid reason why Shields can succeed into his late 30’s, much like Aj Burnett or TIm Hudson? He’s a horse much like those guys and could easily cruise for the next four years while keeping his ERA below 4.
It’s not that he can’t be successful into his late 30’s or can’t rebound from his struggles so far this season. It’s that no one besides the Padres was interested in paying him $75m over 4 years. So why would they want to give up prospects in order to do EXACTLY THAT? And since his contract is backloaded, the balance will have an even higher AAV than what we signed him for in the first place. An analogy would be like if I tried to sell you a pen for $10 and you told me you weren’t interested. Then 6 months later I tried to sell you the same pen for $100. You already didn’t want it for $10, why would you want it for $100? No team would even take him and his contract if we waived him. If you can’t give a guy and his contract away, he has negative trade value.
No one is interested in paying Shields $65m over the next 3 years. Especially not if they have to give up prospects to do it. End of discussion.