Dodgers shortstop/third base prospect Corey Seager sits atop the midseason top fifty prospect list of ESPN.com’s Keith Law (Insider link). After a flurry of top prospect graduations early in the season, it seems fairly clear that observers have settled on Seager as the new number one overall pre-big league player in baseball.
Here’s more from the NL West:
- Another key young Dodgers player, center fielder Joc Pederson, landed in a virtual tie alongside Mookie Betts of the Red Sox as the most valuable trade piece not to make the top ten list of Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron. The pair of outstanding and controllable assets are the last two members of Cameron’s top dozen. As he explains, preferring one to the other is largely a matter of slight preferences in valuation.
- We don’t yet know what direction A.J. Preller will take the Padres at the deadline. But major offseason acquisition (and pending free agent/possible trade chip) Justin Upton said at the All-Star Game that he hopes to stay with San Diego, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports. “At this point, I haven’t given up on the team,” said Upton. “I really like the guys, and I like the clubhouse. We still have some time to change the minds of the front office. In a perfect world, we play well over the next two or three weeks and A.J. pumps the brakes on dismantling the team.” That certainly seems like a tall order, but the rookie GM has managed to surprise the baseball world plenty in his short tenure.
- Over at Grantland, Rany Jazayerli has some rather harsh words for the performance of Preller. Not only is the dramatically-compiled big league roster a bust, says Jazayerli, but the players moved to make that possible have almost universally looked great in their new organizations. It’s certainly an interesting read, which makes some compelling points. But risk is inherent to any action, in baseball and in life, and part of the equation in assessing risk (and whether it’s worth taking it on) involves dealing with the downside. With the deadline approaching, we may have an opportunity to see what kind of bailout plan Preller has in mind for the shorter-term assets he acquired.
- Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez has swung a hot bat at an opportune time, Nick Groke of the Denver Post writes. “Finally, I’m getting my timing back, which is the biggest key for me,” said Gonzalez. “I’m able to sit back on my back leg. It was something I wasn’t able to do that last two years. But I knew at some point I’d get there. I’m still confident.” The question, of course, is whether this recent uptick will be enough to drive significant trade interest. As GM Jeff Bridich recently said of Gonzalez: “His stats aren’t as good as Tulo’s or some of the other guys on our team, so if a team is just going off that, I don’t know. But we’ll certainly know more in 10 days to two weeks.”
Quite the hot take by rany. Confirmation bias with 0 nuance. The Padres were good enough to compete for a playoff spot just because they didn’t doesnt mean they weren’t. Pretty much all starters but ross haven’t hit there projections and bullpen has vastly underachieved as well as kemp plus myers injuries. That isn’t too say he didn’t make mistakes the kimbrel/kemp deals are poor, there were many signs that grandal was going to breakout. That being said wouldn’t surprise me if that was more of a ownership move
It’s a scenario where nothing has panned out. Last winter if you’d have placed odds on this outcome, your have been at about 20%..maybe…which is actually high…and that’s what occured so far. But…every single player brought in had a question mark.
objectively the odds were much less than 20%.
I knew by even stating a % that I’d get a response of more preciseness back from someone. Point being that each team essentially has a Pecota type projection. This season, San Diego is essentially Robinson Cano
Who needs nuance? Rany convincingly and truthfully laid out how Preller ruined the team. And it is clear to me that they are in a terrible spot. Like prior aging dinosaurs with no farm system, and huge payroll, the Padres are now desperate and need to start over. There need not be a nuanced description of their poor team and poor future just to protect your sensitivities. Hit their projections…ownership move.. bias… sounds like you’re making excuses for rookie GM.
I disagree, they are more of a blank sheet of paper than terrible. The Phillies are way worse off. Preller cleaned house, a house that built by horrendous drafting and poor trades. Preller deserves 3-5 years to see his vision through. He couldn’t achieve that vision with the old regime leering over his legacy.
They WERE a blank sheet, and turned into a ledger with high debt and little assets. “Per Baseball America, the Padres traded away their no. 1 (Wisler), no. 2 (Turner), no. 4 (Ross), no. 6 (Fried), no. 9 (Eflin), no. 10 (Jace Peterson), no. 15 (Bauers), no. 16 (Mallex Smith), no. 21 (Dustin Peterson), no. 23 (Burch Smith), and no. 30 (Barbato) prospects, along with the 41st pick in the draft.”
Yes and my point is: Preller did not sign off on or draft those guys. He did not want them. He wanted his own team with his own vision.
Such bad logic. Who cares if he didn’t draft those guys? Doesn’t mean they’re automatically not good players. Turner is now a top 10 prospect in all of baseball while Myers is damaged goods who only had one good half-season in the Majors in the first place!
this is really bad logic. Myers had a 123 wRC+ this year and finally had wrist surgery to get rid of bone spurs, once they move him out of center he will be extremely valuable.
And his poor vision is the exact reason they stink. How is that not Preller’s fault again?
Its not Prellers fault his entire starting rotation has stunk. If they didnt stink, theyd be contending. And its not entirely bad defense, all their FIPs except Ross’s are pretty bad.
Aren’t those pitchers from the previous regime? I thought everything about the team was a mess and he needs years to rebuild. Their pitchers always over-perform their talent (pitchers equivalent to hitting in Coor’s field), and have now regressed to the norm.
Fortunately Preller fired the manger. That sure turned things!
Preller should replace Murphy with Preller. “You built it – you manage it.” Shades of Miami !
“Its not Prellers fault his entire starting rotation has stunk.”
Putting out one of the worst defenses in MLB might have something to do with that. No?
they are prospects..i doubt all of them will make an impact for a team. There were tons of top prospects that have failed once the got to the majors.
Padres had to do something to try and get people to the stadium and they did by creating a buzz in the offseason. What they did before obviously hasn’t worked. Judging that they only have gyorko and venable that were homegrown padres that theyre prospects hasnt exactly panned out.
Create Buzz getting rid of Kemp, Upton, and Myers.
Highly doubt he gets 5 years to turn it around
July 8 quote: “When asked what he thinks of the team being 39-47, the same record as 2014, Fowler jokes ‘I’d fire myself. I’m very aware of that.’ Fowler says he’s embarrassed by what happened so far this season.”
Do it fire Gm, begin all over for the 50th time!
Not sure the Phillies are “way worse off”. They have a solid group of top prospects with Crawford and Nola ready by next year. After 2016, they will have Utley, Papelbon, and Howard’s deals off the books and will be in much better financial shape. They Padres will be paying big money to Kemp through 2019, Gyorko $13 million in 2019, $17 million to Upton in 2017, Shields’ $65 million after this year, etc.
Whether those numbers add up to a problem for the Padres depends on how those players perform, and how much they have to spend on payroll going forward. The answers to both can’t be better than guesses really, but in the second case, ownership is at least talking like they aren’t planning on returning to running the team on the cheap.
The Padres are paying Matt Kemp $3M this season, LAD is paying Kemp $18M in 2015, and $3.5M a year every year of the deal, leaving SD paying $72M over the next 4 seasons starting in 2016. Is 5/75 all up “big money” still? I’ll leave that up to you to decide.
It’s huge money for a guy struggling that badly. It makes the Jason Bay signing look good in comparison.
Kemp’s contract is one of the very few that make Melvin Upton’s contract look like a bargain.
You seriously comparing Kemp, who had an .851 OPS in 2014, to Melvin Upton? Brutal comp.
Yup. Roman Quinn, too. They also have the money to go big in free agency after guys like Upton, Heyward, and Gordon.
Good Point.
The Phils have guys like Maikel Franco, JP Crawford, Nola, and Quinn due to contribute very soon. I’d put them ahead of the Padres at this point.
If By the ( Trade ) Sword , Die By the ( Trade ) Sword, He needs to go too !
Kemp for Grandal was the only one that looked bad at the time. Maybe Myers for Ross, Turner is bad if you think Myers is damaged goods.
I thought they’d be a contender when they traded for Kimbrel. An elite reliever on a nice contract moving to the NL West. I’m not sure why that hasn’t worked out yet.
Because all 5 members of their rotation decided to stink in unison.
Right. Nothing to do with the defense.
With the exception of Ross, and arguably Cashner, their FIPs are pretty terrible.
Or losing excellent catchers…
Just 3-4 months ago Preller was a god and the DBacks didn’t know what they were doing.
Well at least one of those things changed….
Half of that is still true
I will agree with sdsuphilip here. That article encompassed all that is so obnoxious about so many sabre guys: condescending, dogmatic, and wallowing in past-posting results. In the end, Preller has two bad contracts: Melvin Upton and Matt Kemp. Not as bad as the Rangers (4 bad contracts), who are given a perpetual injury excuse because their GM is sabre-friendly.
Okay, so they lost 5 of their top 10 prospects. They can recover 2-4 tomorrow by moving Upton and Kimbrall. Preller will have to move some players around to better fit the team. And the good news is that he has the guts to do it.
They gave up players that are already producing at the ML level better then the ones they got back. Many of the prospects they gave up are getting to produce at the ML level. Their defense is atrocious. Their minor league system has lost its depth. And they’re on the hook for some pretty big dollars in the coming years for players that are not at all worth that money.
I’m sorry, but if you think they acquire 2-4 quality prospects by moving a rent-a-player and a very good reliever that throws 60-some innings and is guaranteed $28-29M over the next 2.5 seasons, well they’ll have to pay a good deal of those players contracts, and probably throw in some additional players as well as they blow the trades out.
That’s a funny comparison because it’s wrong. The Rangers were skewered by the “saber” community for Fielder and Choo.
They can recover some of the prospects given up, but nothing close to what was traded away. If you picture it in money, it’s like buying two stocks that are valued at $100 each. You buy one for $105, but six months later you are going to sell it for $45. You bought the other one at $125 and are now ready to sell it for $80. Not good business.
Preller will trade Upton for sure….can’t see that team wining the 2nd wildcard……
Preller should probably consult with his ol’ buddy Jeff Luhnow, before taking further action.
To whom for What ? Cardinals maybe !
I’m going with Pederson over Betts…..Pederson has more upside……
In what way? Pederson has great power potential, but it’s clear that Betts is the superior defender and baserunner. He has a 4.2 WAR at the half, Pederson’s is 2.7. Hitting 20 homers at the All-Star break at his young age is extremely impressive and rare, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. He does lead the league in strikeouts (107) and his batting average has dropped to .230. I like his ability to get on-base and his raw power a lot, but I think you’re discounting Betts here, and I hope it’s not because of your profile picture.
Pederson strikeouts will go down and his batting average will go up as he ages….Joc has 50 homerun potential..,..as a center_fielder…which is rare in MLB history….
So…he sounds like Jay Bruce
Bruce is Better!
Pederson has hit 20 HR’s in 89 games, that puts him on pace for 36 HR’s if he played all 162 games. I think it is a bit early to call him a 50 HR threat.
the 50 hr potential will show up in his age 26,27,28,29….seasons….this is his first yr…..you”ll have to give his game….more time to develop……
Both are superb defensively.
I’m also not sure if I buy Pederson ceiling is lower than Mookie’s. Pederson has consistently rated among league leaders in every hard contact stats throughout the season. I think the batting average will rise with experience and age (and better luck). 65-70 grade homerun power from a center field is elite. Tie that with superb defense and I think he’s more like going forward Jim Edmonds instead of Adam Dunn w/ a position.
Betts does play in a much hitter friendly park and division. Boston also has the smallest centerfield in MLB tied with the Nationals.
Get it right.. Not all of CF is short,(380′-400′ beginning from where the BP’s begin) the triangle area is 420′ and that’s as far, or further than some other stadiums.
I’m going by Fangraphs. What is your source so we can compare.
fangraphs.com/community/complete-outfield-dimensio…
First off, they both are great, promising players but Pederson isn’t just bringing power to the table. Pederson despite batting nearly 40 points less has nearly a .30 point advantage in OBP% and SLG% and ultimately a 60 point lead in OPS. That is pretty significant. Defensively, we aren’t exactly comparing Andrelton Simmons to Ian Desmond, they are rated fairly close. Speed clearly favors Betts so far based off steal totals, but Pederson is not a lumbering brute either, in the minors, he always had higher SB total than Betts, it just has not translated in the majors yet.
Betts seems to be more well rounded, with an above average skillset across the board with few weaknesses but Pederson has the more explosive tools, with outstanding power and on base ability to go along with solid speed and defense which is why he has the greater upside. If his ability to make contact even becomes league average he would become one of the handful of elite players in the game. Also for what its worth, they are equal in regards to fWAR at 3.1.
Betts is Better, Peterson has a Big Hole in his Approch and pitchers are Just Breaking him down .
You’re really splitting hairs here. Heck both guys are going to be All Star/Future all stars for years to come.
One should’nt have even this year !
I have to wonder about the point of the debate. Neither team is going to trade either of these players so what they might be “worth” on the trade market is at best an abstract exercise. Angels dancing on heads of pins is the more useful discussion.
The author is well aware of that which is why the article states: “These guys are all so good that they’re not getting traded, so this is all a big hypothetical anyway.”
It is still a fun read. If you don’t find it interesting you dont have to read it.
What he actually wrote was, “And because hardly anyone on this list ever gets traded, this exercise is almost entirely hypothetical.” My point is removing the word “almost” makes the statement more accurate. I realize that expressing an opinion is optional, but I decided to go ahead and do it anyhow, since it seemed to be producing a lot of serious discussion.
Josh Donaldson was on the list and he got traded.
Donaldson, and who else? The exception that proves the rule. Keep in mind, this is supposed to be a comparison.
Well, with the one exception, that does validate the term “almost”.
One data point does it for you then? I suppose you can compare to all that nothing and feel validated.
Dude can’t hit a Breaking ball from Mother Teresa , 230 already , and Pitchers are just Stating to figure him out ! Then what AAAA Player
Cargo should be traded as well…..
by the remarks of the GM Cargo sure seems available. As GM Jeff Bridich recently said of Gonzalez: “His stats aren’t as good as Tulo’s or some of the other guys on our team, so if a team is just going off that, I don’t know. But we’ll certainly know more in 10 days to two weeks.”
I’ll be surprised if Colorado does nothing. I won’t exactly be surprised to see them do something fairly major either. I do believe they’re prowling the countryside for an impact sp. Of course, that’s more likely to happen over the winter than now.
No shade, but when have they ever done anything? I can’t recall. Holliday to Oakland? That was 6+ years ago.
I wouldn’t judge this front office by anything in the past..there’s been so much inner turmoil. I do believe at some point before next spring they’ll try to land another SP to pair with their home grown talent. We might not be talking Hamels…simply because of the trade clause… Maybe a James Paxton from Seattle
Disagree, Hamels is their man !
Hamels won’t wave his clause for Denver
They had one of the biggest (and arguably THE biggest) 2011 deadline deals with Ubaldo going to the Indians for Pomeranz and others, so it’s not like they never do anything. I don’t foresee Colorado doing anything major this year though.
Cole Hamels is available and cheap enough for Rockies.
CarGo isn’t that valuable a trade commodity when you consider his contract. Unless the Rockies kick in a lot of cash he isn’t going to command much or a return.
Depends on how desperate buyers are. Bigger contracts have moved before and CarGo (like Tulo) is making far less now than he would get on the open market in free agency. If the buyers don’t want to pay the price, then the Rockies should keep him. They are not required to give their players away to anyone, no matter how much fans would want them to.
CarGo is a nice player but like many, his stats inflated by playing Denver.
260/270 Hitter Away from Rocky Mountain high , But that’s good Impotent for the Mets !
Any scenario involving roster composition has a small percentage chance for either total success or failure. There was a chance that San Diego had every roller hit for this season as well…but given there were so many things that needed to go right..it was a stretch. Best case they would have had some sketchy OF defense offset by a healthy and producing Kemp and Myers. What they got was the bottom falling out.
I viewed the splash as a way to say that SD was relevant again. Surely, Preller knew this risk. Kemp has had issues staying on the field… Etc
Except not everything needed to go well. Even projections that included defense like zips had them contending for a wildcard spot, they had a very talented pitching staff led by ross, shields, cashner, and kennedy. And a very good pen. Even with a terrible OF defense, zips I think had them projected for like 84 wins or something like that and a good chance of a WC spot. Not everything needed to go well. That idea is well silly
You’re right…they didn’t need everything to go well..they rolled the dice on that 15-20% chance that nothing goes well. There was also that 15% chance they hit on all cylinders and they are playing neck and neck with LA right now. But…realistically.. They should be a much better team within striking distance of first… And definitely in a wild card hunt. I’d say they would be where SF is now..
How often does a video-game roster actually have the chemistry to be a winning team? How often has that worked?
That’s a little if what the roster construction looked like to me. But, with modern gaming ai..I’m not sure that even Kemp would stay on the field.
Red_Line;
It’s more then “bad luck” or whatever. That team was not constructed to play at that park in the NL – and I said it at the time. Preller cane from the Rangers, and constructed a team that would fit in their park playing an a DH AL.
It might me nice to talk about him doing a 180 and now trading the veterans at a discount to get young players back, but that is ignoring a trend that is now taking over in MLB – due to the $80M-plus contracts that are becoming standard, teams are holding onto their young, cheap, cost-controlled players. Those are the ones with value. It is going to be harder and harder to unload those high priced contracts unless – 1) the player is performing, and 2) a team sees that player as the missing piece to get over the top.
Preller has put the Padres in a very poor position. For years.
AND 3) a team is willing to eat a lot of that contract.
I was with everyone that questioned the splash… I just didn’t think he brought in unquestionable talent. The defense was going to be a mess and it looked a lot like someone doing their first fantasy draft with a low draft position. But….I do think it’s too soon to judge as there’s still way to shift gears with this organization
I might be the only person who thinks that Preller was clearing house from the old regime and trying to simultaneously compete by moving assets around and bringing in “name” players to appease the fanbase. He would have been brutalized if he had done a more traditional rebuild and moved everyone for prospects and put all no-names out there.
Bottom line is, his vision for the team was not reflected in the prospects/assets he had, so he moved them all for shorter term success. Not his fault his entire rotation underperformed at varying levels. The way I see it, the previous regimes made far, far more devastating mistakes, like trading Rizzo for Cashner, trading Kluber for Ludwick and drafting worse than most teams year in and out. Preller should get 5 years to show what he thinks the team should look like, and we can analyze him from there.
Preller didnt trade Rizzo for Cashner, Kluber for Ludwick, or Forsyth & Boxberger for Hahn & Torres. He also wasn’t responsible for terrible drafting year in and out. The Padres were a mess long before Preller got there. Only fair we judge him after 3 years to where we can start to see his vision for the team, not after 3 months.
Just because you weren’t a fan, doesn’t mean the Padres were a mess. Again, read the article: “had been the sixth-best farm system before the 2013 and 2014 seasons” & “From 2004 to 2014, the Padres hugged .500”. Personally, I think stability is better than up & down swings. Fair weather fans, on the other hand, don’t get it. and by the way, Crohn’s disease is no joke
Crohn’s disease is no joke but CJ Cron’s Disease is wordplay.
If the Padres weren’t a mess, where are their titles? They were routinely the most underperforming team in the game.
You set your handle on disease word play…you have to know you’ll catch it from someone. Wouldn’t be worth my time considering how easy wordplay can be with major league names
How’s about Panik Depression. That actually kills people
Wordplay based on the name of a disease which afflicts millions of people…. funnn nnnnyy
Justin, I’ve been on this site actively for 8 years. In that time I’ve seen a few instances of truly objectionable material….a few true slights..a few truly offensive creatively typed curse attacks. If those things happen…just report it….This is a private site, let them decide. If you’re truly offended by a handle there’s no point in engaging anyway.
Either way you’re just going to keep getting lighten up type responses. I’d that’s how you want to spend your time…responding to that..then go ahead.
My only qualm is that you didn’t address the issue directly but buried at the end of a response… It makes it seem like a dig more than true concern. I’d there’s one thing I personally don’t care for its someone fake caring. I’ve suffered from manic depression in my life…and I responded back with a Panik Depression name response to make light of the ridiculous nature of it all. You don’t have to tell me how serious mental illness is. If you care then do something about it…or sit here and argue..cause that’ll be easier and more entertaining for you
Guys need to ease up , Make fun of Millionaires not Producing at a very difficult game is the Heat you take while in the Kitchen , Poking fun at terrible disease is’t,
I’m one of those millions afflicted. And I found it clever and not objectionable in the least.
Why not Felipe Alou Gehrig’s Disease. At least you’d take knocks for two quality players and not some AAAA swing from the keyster masher
That one’s not funny either dude. ALS is absolutely terrible. Easy targets today – Rany wrote an article that inspired me to correct those in denial.
How do you get out of bed in the morning? Lighten up. No one is saying these diseases are not devastating, but have you ever heard the saying that laughter is the best medicine?
I guess that’s easy for you to say. You know, there are a lot of folks who don’t realize how bad they sound making jokes like that. I bet you like to use the N-word and the R-word. And for your information, I get out of bed by sitting up, then standing, then coffee, then walk the dog… you get it. I’m not really insulted that you think I’m un-funny because I don’t get a kick out of middle school humor.
If you’re that easily offended, the Internet may not be for you.
Just trying to enlighten, inform, and educate. I for one do not give people a pass for what they say on the internet. If you can’t say it to someone’s face, you shouldn’t hide behind the anonymity of the internet. Its not funny. And I already know the internet is just a forum, it is not my life. I do not have to choose it to be “for me”. Sorry for turning MLBTR into a lecture, but you have to hear it from someone or you’ll never know you are wrong.
You’re pretentious to believe you are enlightening anyone, informing, or educating. You have a point…bit its buried under your pompous approach. His name wasn’t an issue until the END of your response post….surely if this matters…and it might… You can disregard responding about his baseball related comment and.engage him purely on his handle.
Come on….I’m not defending anything…but I’d you have a problem take it to the site managers…don’t use it as a slam to end a response post. My guess is that you didn’t care that much and just wanted to make a point. You’re losing your own point here
I wasn’t trying to be funny, Justin…I was actually mocking him a bit. I believe there’s a complete difference between suggesting obviously tacky handles that make light of a tacky handle….and actually HAVING those handles.
I just chose to take the non offended route because A). They likely realize the name is tacky and offensive, and B) They likely don’t care what I say anyway.
You don’t have to tell me using a disease reference is perhaps wrong. But you do need to find a sense of humor. Maybe you took the opportunity to respond to a post you didn’t care about and put that mention about his handle in as a side point.
May I suggest that if a handle truly is loathsome to you that you ask that it be changed.
1.6% of people with Crohn’s Disease die from it. CJ Cron’s Disease is not being able to take a walk.
Drops mic!
I’m hardly a PC person. But that an offensive handle you took. If you think it’s witty, well…….
You really should have just stayed out of it, because I’m not sure anyone is going to defend you….its just the other guys pompous approach. This post just makes you look juvenile. I certainly hope you’re about 13, because that would make it understandable.
It’s one thing to actually have a silly fantasy team sounding handle and completely another to actually denigrate people that do suffer from a disease.
“Drops Mic”…. Ha…wow…I know what I need to know..have a great evening.
I commented on the other guy…and I’m fair…but this is garbage.
Redline: honestly, I care more about people than baseball and avoid these confrontations when I can. But someone needs to defend those who cannot speak up for themselves. I was responding to direct stubbornness from other commenters and I do not judge you or other posters over these comments. I just hope that you see that defending the wrong point of view is only strengthening those who are wrong. Lets focus on baseball for now on. Take care
Oh please, you are in the comments section of a messageboard about MLB trades and YOU took a swipe first.
Grow up.
Look up one post…I didn’t defend him yesterday evening. My only concern is that I followed your back and forth baseball comments and it appeared like you finally got testy and got into the subject of his handle. You just stated my entire premise….you should have ignored baseball talk as soon as you saw the handle and made that the matter. It appeared like you cared more about baseball talk until you were rattled. I’m not defending him at all….he jumped back in with a truly ridiculous post…and I went after him.
“It’s one thing to actually have a silly fantasy team sounding handle and completely another to actually denigrate people that do suffer from a disease.”
Yeah, and I’ve never once denigrated them. CJ Cron’s Disease is not being about to take a walk…I would have thought it was obvious, baseball-related humor there, but hey, looks like we have a couple of posters in here who don’t get invited to parties.
People with Crohns Disease can’t take a walk… Seriously…they’re bowels aren’t under control. No…I actually didn’t get the reference….because it was factual about the disease.. Maybe you didnt know that..I have no idea….I was also distracted by your drops mic comment…come on.
You gave yourself a handle that was going to get hammered at some point. This other guy obviously didn’t like the course of the conversation so he threw that at you….I drew issue with that…but then you reentered and made a statement that I’m not even sure you KNEW was accurate. Maybe if I’d have heard you say it it would have been different… But I read it. Completely different format.
Not trying to be funny, but trying to “make light”. Tacky and offensive, but get a sense of humor.
Which side of the fence are you on? I think I can make up my mind, and I think it is outright wrong.
Quite frankly, I’m more offended that you think that we (people with crohns) need you to be our crusader. We don’t. Cjcronsdisease has been posting on this site for years, i personally, have had back and forth comments about baseball with out giving two s**** what his handle was. It’s really not a bid deal.
I didn’t think it was that big of a deal either…honestly I don’t think much of handles outside of being identifiers, but that said..there was bound to be someone draw issue and he should have known that. I think you have a couple of people here that get in an exchange and then just start slapping each other. I don’t know…whatever. I’ve been here for 8 years and don’t recall the CJCronsdisease handle….did someone change after the new improvements?
The fans judge teams and management on a here now mentality. Back in 2012, AA traded most of his top prospects to obtain Dickey, Beurhrle, Reyes, plus other players and everyone had those moves as world series winners. How did it work out and the team crashed in 2012, finishing low in the overall standings. It has now been three years and the top prospects are now envied by every team that took the place of the other top prospects and the team added a few more pieces to contend. If Toronto had a competent manager in the dugout that hasn’t cost the team 26 wins or stolen losses from victory, the team would be running away with the AL east with the same players they obtained in 2012. It is the impatience of the fans that demands immediate results and when that doesn’t happen, everyone complains that the GM failed. No one knows what will happen in the second half and if San Diego start winning, will the fans post a retraction for their previous comments – the answer is no.
I for one applaud anyone’s success, and yes, I would own it. But there’s no reason to sugarcoat the situation. Its results driven and its real: Preller is looking like he made A LOT of mistakes. If the players are able to pull it out of the basement, more power to them. The underlying point from Rany’s article is that it takes a long time to build a winner, but it takes no time at all to destroy a team with poor moves.
Rany pillaged Dayton Moore forever about the Royals rebuild… He asked for his firing even while they were over .500…the guy was banned from team events I believe….
Interesting. I know that Dayton Moore was a punching bag for Cameron and other Fangraphs people. One reason I stopped reading it years ago.
What I’ve learned from reading saber-oriented writers is that most are hardly objective. They like someone, they pull out 5 of 200 stats to make their case. They dislike someone they pull out 5 others out of 200. It’s hard to find people that try to be impartial. They seem to try to do that here.
Rany on the Royals. Granted….EVERYONE piled on Moore for his non-stat approach. Interesting that that crowd has been fairly quiet and along for the win
Again, the 2014 Royals were probably the most “Moneyball” team to ever play in a World Series. Moore and the Royals had a strong stats department but the saber community didn’t see it because they didn’t realize that the stats Moore was looking at had to do with bullpen, defense, and baserunning.
In all fairness, the 2014 Royals were about the most “Moneyball” team ever to make the World Series. In an environment where bullpen, baserunning, and defense were all tremendously undervalued, the Royals built a team on bullpen, baserunning, and defense. FanGraphs pointed this out pretty early last year comparing how the team was winning to how the Tigers were winning. The truth is that the methodology is sound but you’re right – many who practice it use the wrong tone when discussing it
I wholeheartedly agree….but all the stat-osphere was still operating “Moneyball” under an actual approach….as opposed to its true essence, which was exploiting cheap sources of production. Moore basically built a.back 3 that was the equivalent of Clayton Kershaw with the added bonus of being able to deploy it with a lead. Give Kershaw a 1-3 run lead in the first and see what his numbers end up like. I do think that KC had things break for them as well…but they did in,Oakland as well.
I wish the Moneyball thing would die…its overstated…it was nice but it was a narrative built around a theme of a book that failed to mention the real keys to Oakland’s success… The left side of the infield and the starting 3._I’ve read the book was meant to be written using the Twins but they turned the project down.
Could be. In essence, “Moneyball” is the methodology used to acquire undervalued assets. You get that; most don’t.
It has to be a methodology if not its strictly about acquiring undervalued sources of OBP. 30 teams value that at this point.
I’m not even sure it was revolutionary at the time. I believe the book was set up as narrative. Oakland themselves had been using analytics since about 1981. Montreal was doing this in the early 90’s…even Earl Weaver essentially did this. It predates Bill James.
What Moore did was interesting……
With teams running up counts by taking pitches and hitting foul balls, when they finally got the starter out of the game, they had to face the Royals top 3 pitchers. Sort if hard to come from behind that way. i.e. when everyone zigs….you zag.
I get downvoted for stating actual facts
Well the previous regime did trade Latos for Alfonso, Boxberger and Grandal, got Tyson Ross on the cheap, built an effective bullpen with mostly pre-arbitration arms, and never went insane w/ spending money
And they seemed to have acquired players that the Braves and others are now happy with. Geeze, Souza is a decent player, but Rizzo should have to pay some sort of tax for what he got back for him.
Joe Ross looks like an acr
Joe Ross looks like an ace. Trea Turner looks great at SS. Jace Peterson is now the Braves’ long-term 2B. Wisler is pitching better than Shields. Grandal is outhitting Buster Posey. Get real, man. The Padres would be a better team had they pulled a “Mets” and built from within, allowing players to develop. They would be a better team right now AND in the future had they not made a single move.
By then he’s another Ruben !
I wasn’t a fan of the Preller moves in the offseason. Too fast, not well thought out. Myers, and Kemp have been injury prone, Upon was a short-timer, so you are trying to go for broke on a one year window, while 2/3 of your outfield have trouble staying on the field. And I totally agree about the lack of infield hitting nd Grandal ready to take next step. Hahn showed a lot, and to get a catcher who couldn’t even run out grounders the last two months of the season with OAK for Hahn was not a good idea. With SF and LA in division, you are going to have tough time jumping both for division title when they didn’t lose much. More likely they were looking at a Wild Card spot. That is a lot of young controllable talent to give up for a one year shot at a wild card.
I’m going to rip jazayerli’s piece here, bc grant land doesn’t have a comment forum.
Grandal- the grant land author admits that no one on the Padres staff wanted to pitch to him. Which resulted in Rene riviera getting about an 40 % of at bats that should have gone to grandal. Grandal has made comments that it was next to impossible for him to get into rhythm at the plate. He’s thriving in la bc he is getting consistent abs like a starting catcher should.
Maybin – maybin was a lottery ticket. Former top tigers prospect that was a centerpiece of the miggy/d train trade with the Marlins. Failed in Miami. Had moderate success for one season in San Diego then was off the field for the bulk of his time there.
Wisler was out with tjs. Far from a sure thing.
Ross- he states that Ross is a valuable piece of an mlb teams rotation. Why? Bc he had two good outings for Washington and only got the call up bc their rotation was destroyed by injuries.
Throw ins- he claims Seth freaking smith would have been a valuable asset. And also sites that a bunch of the other semi prospects (most of which were not on anyone’s top prospect list) are doing well in the low minors. Hot damn.
J up- if he isn’t traded, which will fetch a nice return, will be under exclusive terms for contract negotiation with San Diego.
Myers – got the injury bug. Far from peelers fault.
In conclusion, I’m not saying the author is wrong. I’m saying he is jumping the gun in an absolutely extreme fashion and going out of his way to attempt to pass it off as based on objective stats. It’s a hack piece.
Sometimes the truth hurts
The Padres have been bad for quite a while. I give management credit for trying to make a run at it instead of just fielding a low cost team and telling the fans: “wait till next year” in April.
I get it, but they haven’t been bad. They have been stuck at .500. I see the goal was to make a splash to change that bland result, but the decisions were bad and the results show that. Its like putting your salary into risky stocks and lottery tickets. Its a big rush, then a big let down.
Wisler Tj? Don’t remember that are you thinking of fried
You are correct. Wisler had no health issues and was a few months from being MLB ready when we traded him.
Rany lived to jump the gun on Royals blogging
Expect Padres to have a good second half.You have to consider that 50 of there first 60 games where played against teams with winning records.Having a weaker schedule in the second half may help.To early to grade a lot of these trades.Think the Kemp deal will eventually even out he seems to be coming out of his slump.Consider Kemp was one of the best hitters if not the best hitter in all of baseball last year in the second half.Also haven’t seen how the catcher we got from the Dodgers will pan out.The Norris deal might be looking like a deal we make just in time if Hahn needs a 2nd tommjohn currently on DL.We new Upton was just going to be a rental and will be able to recoup some of the talent when traded or get comp pick.Myers is still one of the best young up and coming hitters in all of baseball so don’t think thats a bad deal either.It seems like we gave up the most for Kimbril.Didnt like the Kimbril trade at first until I saw him come into a game in a padres uniform.The excitement and entertainment value he brings to the game is worth a heck of a lot to me.
I agree with a lot of what Rany said, you can tell he’s not that up close and personal with SD baseball
-The fair territory of Petco is league average after they brought in the walls in ’13 businessinsider.com/chart-major-league-baseball-ba…
-Not one mention of the ridiculous amounts of homeruns the pitching staff has given up both home and away
The defense has been putting em on and the pitchers have given up the long ball.
Looking forward and ignoring the sunk cost of all the prospects traded, Padres still do have a core of controllable and/or young major league talent in Myers, Norris, Middlebrooks(gulp), Kimbrel, Shields(not young, controlable), Ross, and Cashner (unless the two later get traded). I think you can build around those pieces. To do it will cost more money, cause we got no prospects left!
That’s a pretty weak core compared to most contending teams. That’s a productive but oft-injured corner OF/1B, a catcher who’s value peaked in 2014, a 33 year old pitcher, and a pitcher who is a FA in 2016. Kimbrel’s probably your best asset and he’s a reliever.
Upton may not have given up on Team, But they have given up on him ! 3rd team in Four Years say something about Curt Gibsons evaluation of him.
The Padres aren’t giving up on Upton. They just know he’s going to leave at the end of the year so no point in holding onto him if we aren’t gonna contend.