The Giants and Reds have announced a trade that will send right-hander Mike Leake to San Francisco in exchange for 21-year-old Class-A Advanced right-hander Keury Mella and corner infielder Adam Duvall.
Leake, 27, is in the midst of his third straight season of solid run prevention in one of baseball’s most hitter-friendly atmospheres. The free-agent-to-be currently sports a 3.56 ERA with 5.9 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 51.5 percent ground-ball rate in 136 2/3 innings. Dating back to 2013, Leake has cemented himself as a durable source of quality innings. He made 64 starts from 2013-14, totaling 406 2/3 innings in that time, and he’s made 21 starts this year, averaging 6.5 innings per appearance.
The Giants have cycled through eight different starting pitchers this season and received an ERA south of 4.00 from only two of them, creating a good deal of uncertainty in the rotation, particularly in light of injury struggles for Matt Cain, Jake Peavy and Tim Hudson. The emergence of Chris Heston has been a boon to the San Francisco pitching staff, but the club has reportedly been on the hunt for arms to shore up the staff, and Leake will certainly help.
In Leake, the Giants have picked up an asset whose limitations — specifically a below-average strikeout/swinging-strike rate in Leake’s case — are minimized by their home park and provided the team some much-needed stability in the rotation. While Leake isn’t on the same level of other rumored Giants target such as David Price and Cole Hamels, he’s an upgrade to the team and, perhaps most importantly, could factor into a potential postseason rotation for the reigning champs. Leake will also improve the Giants’ chances of keeping up with the Dodgers in the division and thereby avoiding a one-game playoff. A half-game currently separates the two clubs.
The move to San Francisco will be advantageous for Leake in multiple ways. First and foremost, Leake will move into a much better pitching environment for the final push toward his first bout with free agency, which should lead to improvements in his overall run prevention numbers. Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, is that the trade makes him ineligible to receive a qualifying offer. Set to reach free agency after this season, before his age-28 season, Leake would’ve been a lock to receive a QO despite his status as more of a mid-rotation arm than a front-of-the-rotation piece. Now, however, he’ll hit the open market as one of the youngest players available and without the burden of draft pick compensation, which figures to work quite nicely in his favor.
The move to the rotation for Leake means that one of Hudson, Peavy or Cain will be demoted from their spot, and Giants GM Bobby Evans tells reporters, including Andrew Baggarly, that it will be Hudson who will be departing from the starting five (Twitter link). While Hudson has a 4.80 ERA in 101 innings this season and has not pitched near the level he did in a brilliant debut campaign with the Giants in 2014, it’s nevertheless unusual to see him heading for a bullpen. Hudson has appeared in 475 games over the course of his Major League career, and 474 of those contests have been starts. The San Francisco Chronicle’s John Shea tweets that (per Evans) Hudson “ultimately wants to see this club excel, have success and win and told me he’d do whatever it takes for that to happen.”
Turning to the Reds’ side of the deal, Mella ranks first on MLB.com’s midseason list of Giants top prospects and second on Baseball America’s version of the same list. ESPN’s Keith Law tweets that he considered Mella the best arm in San Francisco’s system as well. MLB.com’s Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo write that Mella has the best combo of stuff and pitchability of any arm in San Francisco’s system, making him a candidate to rise quickly through the minors. He’s 93-95 mph with his fastball regularly, touching 97 when needed, per their report, and has the potential for three average-or-better pitches. BA notes that a scout has likened his sinking fastball to a bowling ball, and that movement helps him limit homers. Still, some see the bullpen in Mella’s future, BA adds.
The 26-year-old Duvall doesn’t rate as highly on San Francisco prospect lists, but MLB.com still pegged him 25th. Duvall made his big league debut with the Giants in 2014 and has already blasted 26 homers at the Triple-A level in 2015, albeit in the extremely hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Callis and Mayo feel that power is Duvall’s lone tool, making him best suited for a utility role or first base duty. Given his strong Triple-A numbers and the fact that he’s already appeared in the bigs, I’d think Duvall could emerge as a bench option for Cincinnati in short order. (For those that enjoy a good anecdote, C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer points out that Duvall homered in his first career game … a solo shot off of Leake.)
The rebuilding Reds have now moved two of their most desirable assets — Leake and Johnny Cueto — and netted a quartet of promising arms in addition to a potential big league bench piece. Mella and Duvall are joined by lefties Brandon Finnegan, John Lamb and Cody Reed in an improving Reds farm system.
FOX’s Jon Morosi first reported that the two sides were in discussions. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweeted that Leake would go to the Reds, adding that Cincinnati would net two minor leaguers. Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area reported Mella’s inclusion (on Twitter), and Morosi reported that Duvall was in the deal, too (on Twitter).
The Oregonian
Mehhhh. I mean, he’s better than Hudson, but not a super exciting rental. Hopefully they didn’t give up Susac or Beede.
Andrew Rodig
He’s a rental that has a strong chance of staying in San Francisco if he does well. He was born in California. It’s one of those deals where most likely Leake will be a Giant for a while.
The Oregonian
Yeah that’s true, which would make it a nice addition. Hopefully it wouldn’t preclude them from signing a #2 in the offseason though, with the Lincecum, Hudson, Vogelsong, and Scutaro contracts coming off the books.
SFrush90
They’ll only have room for one addition to the rotation unfortunately since Bum, Cain, Peavy, and Heston are all under contract.
Lanidrac
Bumgarner, Cain, and pray for rain?
johansantana17
He grew up in San Diego, not anywhere close to San Francisco. There are four other teams closer to his hometown
g55s
It’s a 90 minute flight.
Johnny Khanh Huynh
He grew up a SD fan but his dad was a Giants fan plus an article said he has a liking to the Giants because of it. The paragraph is towards the end of the article.blogs.mercurynews.com/giants/2015/05/16/extra-bagg…
Johnny Khanh Huynh
i meant in SD
barry
twitter.com/demianbulwa/status/626972753686474753
Kapler's Coconut Oil
Well you’re delusional if you were expecting the ‘exciting’ Hamel’s or Price. He’s a guy who could pitch really well in AT&T. While Mella is an overpay in my opinion, thinking Susac might go is also delusional
The Oregonian
I didn’t think Susac was going to go for two months of Leake, I simply said I hope he wasn’t part of the trade, and he was not. Also they were in the running for Hamels so it wasn’t “delusional” to expect they had a chance to acquire him.
Kapler's Coconut Oil
Of course we’d be in the running, anybody can send their top prospects, but to think we could possibly out negotiate the Ranger, Red Sox, Dodgers, or Yankees is unrealistic.
ZAK A.
Considering what the A’s got for Kazmir as a rental that set the market high. Mella isn’t blowing doors off in A ball, he’s a control specialist clearly, but with all the guys coming up around him like Beede and Crick they likely wouldn’t have room for him for a long while anyway.
ZAK A.
Nevermind that, Duvall and Mella is an overpay but… there’s little doubt Leake will resign and Duvall never would’ve made it with Duffy a solid star in the making so ultimately I don’t have a problem with it.
Kapler's Coconut Oil
I think Mella being involved for a non ace rental is an overpay, so I agree with you, but Crick is in the bullpen, so he’s not blocking Mella at all. The Giants think very poorly of Duvall’s defense, which is why I’m okay with him gone
ZAK A.
Crick’s a starter, he’s made 11 this year in Richmond and he’s doing well. Duvall, yes, just doesn’t have a position and the one he’s played most is 3rd, and we all are now glad, even those that argued vehemently for Pablo, that Duffy is here.
Paul Michaels
Crick hasn’t been a starter for a while now. He’s been used as a bullpen arm. That’s the direction they’re going with him cause he can’t last long enough to be a starter.
ZAK A.
OK you guys are right, Crick is in the pen now, he was starting. Perhaps he’s just not ready for the duration yet, but he’s definitely groomed as a starter, hopefully he gets back to that.
Kapler's Coconut Oil
He WAS groomed as a starter, but control has always been an issue, and it still is currently an issue even in the ‘pen. He likely won’t get back to that as opposing scouts thought he was a pen arm long before the Giants conceded. Crick is most likely a wash now.
ZAK A.
Crick is 22, MANY things can happen between now and when he might get into mlb, he might need to bulk up in the offseason. The Giants will always have quality arms because their developmental system is second to none. In example, not one of the current homegrown starters since Cain have had TJ surgery.
Kapler's Coconut Oil
Cain never had Tommy John surgery.
wahoomaniac
Crick will never start in MLB, he’s too wild. You can’t go 6-7 innings regularly when you’re walking 5-6 guys per nine innings — you’ll use up your 100 pitches in 5 innings or less. The sooner the Giants commit to keeping him in the bullpen, the better for everyone.
ssf1234
Mella is a slight overpay, but he’s still in A+ so kinda far out there yet.. Duvall is not a big loss, I’ve seen my fair share of SJ Giants games.. Duvall was straight clank mitt in his time there. Plus he has a pretty bad minor league career BB/K ratio…
ZAK A.
None starting with Cain, or any of the other current homegrown starters since, that’s my point.
ssf1234
Zak, its not a question of bulking up with Crick. Its his release point and inconsistency of mechanics. right now, he’s a right handed 2008-2010 Jonathan Sanchez.
Ray Ray
How is it an overpay? Just because he is the Giants top prospect means nothing. They didn’t have a single player on the top 100 list. Leake has been among the hottest starters in the big leagues recently and this is a steal for the Giants.
ZAK A.
He’s a rental, you still have to pay him for all that you say he is at the end of the season.
Ray Ray
The Reds weren’t just going to give him away. They could have just kept him and used the QO on him.
thecoffinnail
You accuse other posters of being “delusional” but you constantly refer to the team that you support (the Giants) as if you were a member of the team, by using “we”. I would say you are more delusional than any other person posting on this site, because you think cheering for a team on TV or buying a few tickets to see a game in person actually makes you a part of the team to the point where you feel comfortable using the word “we” when referring to the Giants.
jfretless
Just heard it was two minor leaguers.
danpartridge
Mella is too much for Leake rental. Is there more coming back to Gigantes?
Ray Ray
Mella is not even a top 100 prospect. How is it an overpay?
wahoomaniac
Because fans of a team tend to overrate their own prospects. It is universal.
Kapler's Coconut Oil
While it is universal, no one should initially be happy to hear that the #1 prospect in your system was traded for a non-ace rental, regardless of the quality of your farm system.
Paul Michaels
True, but at the same time I don’t believe that Mella was even the team’s best pitching prospect let alone #1 prospect. There’s a reason Beede’s name came up a lot more when it came to the Giants negotiating for trades.
stephen 6
His ERA splits are 4.93 at home (Great American Ballpark aka hitter’s park) and 2.28 ERA on the road. Safe to say that home ERA should go down pitching at AT&T Park. Depending who the second prospect is what will make or break this trade. Overall though good move for the Giants imo.
ZAK A.
That’s a solid pickup considering who’s already gone elsewhere. A good arm without any real injury history. Watch Rags, Gardy and Tidrow make this guy into an ace. This was the move they needed to make, nothing flamboyant like the always overspending team to the S. Mella has a great K/BB ratio in A ball but likely not a top starter. All in all it’s a great deal for Leake coming back to his home state, a pitcher’s park, and a starting staff that can rake!
gilgunderson
As Scouting Director for the entire organization, I doubt Tidrow has any time to personally mentor a pitcher at the Major League level. He has certainly done a good job of identifying young pitchers to draft.
Anyway, I don’t think there’s much about Leake that needs fixing. His numbers away from Cincinnati are excellent.
Deelron
Of course they are, he’s the most Giant-e player available.
Tko11
Career FIP = 4.17 not quite sure why so many teams were interested in him.
Kapler's Coconut Oil
Because they look at more than one stat.
Tko11
Its not just one stat though…Its the one I chose to supply you with because I believe you can really go review the others if you’d like. Nothing to excited about with this guy. Just a bottom of the rotation starter.
mrkinsm
He’s 27 years old (with 6 years of service since going straight from college to the majors), has succeeded in one of the most hitter friendly ballparks in the league, and is only owed 4M$. A solid #3 SP’er.
Tko11
Succeeded how? Pitching to a 4 ERA?
selw0nk
Wasn’t he arrested for shoplifting?
cookiemonster
yeah, like t shirts or sunglasses. his rookie year or something.
JoeyPankake
Yeah. 6 tee shirts from Macy’s
wahoomaniac
Macy’s is easy to find in S.F., anyway — right in Union Square.
JoeyPankake
So they will have that going for them if they decide to resign him after the season.
Meow Meow
Red Sox are probably going to go extra hard on Leake this offseason now. 27yo, no QA attached. Cherington is probably salivating for another mid-rotation arm.
Draven Moss
I will be pretty mad if that is the case.
frontdeskmike
Great coverage tonight, Steve and Jeff!
johnny53811
Good trade for SF. Not too upset about losing Duvall since Duffy has successfully taken over 3B and he’s a lot younger that Duvall so you gotta figure there was no need for Him. Mella is pretty talented but those are the risks you take to help solidify a rotation tht has been inconsistent behind Bumgarner and Heston.
wahoomaniac
I agree, I think that was a pretty small price to pay. They didn’t give up Beede, Susac, Panik or Duffy … seems cheap to me.
Ray Ray
Why would the Reds want Duvall? They have Frazier and Votto at the corner infield for the foreseeable future. Literally every other position needed a prospect, especially corner outfield and middle infield. Confusing pick up.
Kapler's Coconut Oil
According to Hank Schulman, scouts outside of the Giants view him as a bench bat, and considering the Reds’ park, he can hit quite a few pinch hit home runs over there.
bigturtlemachine
Giants fans will like Mike Leake. For one thing, he’s been very strong against St. Louis, which could come into play in the postseason. Another is that SF didn’t get just a very solid mid-rotation starter but one who can hit and who can run. Leake’s an excellent athlete.
Lanidrac
I bet he’s glad he wasn’t traded over to the American League. Most good hitting pitchers take pride in that particular skill and enjoy stepping into the batter’s box. Keep the DH out of the NL!
gilgunderson
Leake and Bumgarner can tape their own episode of Home Run Derby. I believe they’re the two active leaders in home runs hit by pitchers. I’d still put my money on Bum, though.
thethrill
List of active HR leaders by pitchers…
1. Gallardo 12
2. Travis Wood & Bumgarner 9
4. Arroyo, Cain, & Wainwright 6
7. Leake & *Marquis 5
Travis Wood actually has the fewest AB’s (266) but yeah I would still put my money on MadBum!!!
*Marquis was released during this season
yakyubeisbol
Leake does have a great bat for a pitcher. His 2014 Topps baseball card picture shows him batting instead of pitching.
harperhill
Interesting trivia: Adam Duvall homered off Mike Leake in his first big league game last June.
The Oregonian
Well that’s a cool coincidence.
Franl Edwardo
Walt is crushing it so far. I had no faith in him to gain value. I must say he has done as well as you could expect. I think the change in ballparks for leake is over rated. sure it is bigger, but there is also a bigger area to cover with a worse defense. Cincinnati is small, yet the out field is tiny and Billy Hamilton covered nearly the entire outfield, with an very good infield defense as well.
The Oregonian
The Giants actually have one of the best infield defenses in the league, with average outfield defense.
Paul Michaels
The Giants defense has been better than the Red defense all around and AT&T being bigger limits the amount of homers that pitchers allow. The Giants got the better of the Reds in this trade. The Reds got a AAAA hitter that can’t play defense and so far can’t seem to hit major league pitching and a pitcher in Class A that may or may not turn out to be a reliable starter.
bayareabenny
Franl- What are you talking about? How is going from a bandbox to one of the best pitcher’s parks with a pitching staff that is one of if not the best in all of MLB “overrated”? Look at Leake’s home/away splits and you’ll see a guy who pitches better away than at home. It also stands to reason he will pitch even better being on a team with a winning culture rather than a team like Cincy where it seems like no matter what you do you’ll always be behind St Louis and now Pittsburgh.
Franl Edwardo
Leake is a ground ball pitcher. he also gives up a fair amount of line drives. His home run rate is low. GABP is a good home run park but the small space in the outfield takes a lot of hits away. Votto has discussed this. Votto is not a home run hitter, he is a gap to gap hitter. Playing at GABP takes hits away because there is much less space in the outfield for the outfielders to cover. Look at Coors field, it is not the home runs that kill pitchers there, though they certainly do not help, it is the balls in the gaps and in front of the outfielders, they just can cover the ground.
The Giants have a huge outfield, and for a guy like Leake it could harm him a bit. Billy Hamilton covers more ground than anyone, Bruce is Fair in right, and Byrd covers a lot of ground for a LFer. Can you not see the logic in that?
By the way, the culture in Cincinnati? Up until Dusty baker left they were winning divisions and wild card spots, winning to that team is not foreign. The Terrible bullpen and injuries the past two seasons have certainly hurt them, but the overall team still has plenty of talent, just not enough money to keep it all around (or an unwillingness to spend that money).
raef715
is he a free agent after this year, or just arbitration elgible for one more year? this is only his 6th big league season..
as a neutral observer, ive never understood the Mike Leake love, and while i realize the ballpark factor, its hard for me to understand giving up your #1 prospect for an upgrade from one of the veterans to Mke Leake- do you really trust Mike Leake in a big game? i certainly wouldnt
Lanidrac
I wish the Reds had traded Leake before his last start on Tuesday.