Now that this week’s All-Star festivities in Cincinnati have come to a close, the Reds are prepared to trade right-handers Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake, tweets Jon Morosi of FOX Sports. Both longtime Reds hurlers are eligible for free agency at season’s end.
While Morosi’s report is not necessarily unexpected news — many reports over the past few months have indicated that Cincinnati was loath to sell major pieces prior to hosting the Midsummer Classic — it does serve as confirmation that the team won’t deviate from its expected course. The Reds currently sit eight games under .500 at 39-47, placing them 15.5 games behind the Cardinals for the NL Central lead and 7.5 games back in the NL Wild Card race.
Cueto figures to be among the most desirable trade chips on this year’s summer market, if not the most desirable trade chip. The 29-year-old is as appealing a target as one could hope for in a rental — a pure ace that is enjoying an excellent season and signed to an affordable contract. Cueto’s worked to a 2.73 ERA with 8.6 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and a 44.2 percent ground-ball rate in 118 2/3 innings this season. He’s earning a relatively modest $10MM salary in 2015, of which about $4.37MM remains.
Leake, 27, is not as high-profile a target but still carries a good deal of value to teams looking to stabilize the middle or back end of their rotations. The former No. 8 overall pick is sporting a 4.08 ERA with 6.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 53 percent ground-ball rate in 114 2/3 innings with the Reds this season. His collective work over the two most recent full seasons has been impressive; despite pitching half his games in the hitters’ paradise that is Great American Ball Park, Leake has worked to a 3.54 ERA and averaged 203 innings, helping to establish himself as a solid mid-rotation cog. Leake is earning $9.775MM in 2015, and he’s still owed about $4.27MM of that sum.
Given the willingness to part with Cueto and Leake, it would stand to reason that other impending free agents are also available in trades as well. That could include Marlon Byrd (who has a vesting option for 2016), catcher Brayan Pena and lefty reliever Manny Parra. More interesting, however, are right fielder Jay Bruce and closer Aroldis Chapman. Both have been rumored to be available and could potentially return a significant haul for what appears to be a rebuilding Reds club. Chapman’s controlled through 2016 and could see his salary clear $11MM this offseason, though that’s unlikely to give pause to many of his suitors. Bruce is under control through 2016 for a guaranteed $13.5MM, but a club option means that he could be controlled for $25.5MM from 2016-17 (plus the remaining $5.25MM on his 2015 salary).
Why did they have to wait until after the All Star Game to trade 2 non-All Stars, again?
They hoped Johnny Cueto would win the final vote, and become an All Star. Also they didn’t seem to want to distract from All Star festivities by dismantling the team right beforehand. It’s now a few days after the All Star Game and perhaps they’ve held up midseason trades, but they haven’t found themselves left behind.
Unless Cueto hurts his elbow in his next start because of waiting needlessly to trade him. Why he isn’t gone yet, I can’t fathom. I thought his scare earlier this year with his elbow would wake the FO up, but NOPE.
He isn’t gone yet because the price goes up the closer you get to the deadline as desperation sinks in for teams like the Jays or Twins to do something to get into the playoffs.
Jays won’t be giving up top assets for a rental. AA has said that numerous times already.
Yeah and GMs ALWAYS tell the truth to the public when discussing their trade strategies.
Except it goes against everything AA does. People in Toronto knows what type of GM AA is. I will repeat, he will not give up Hoffman / Norris / Stromas for 3 months of Cueto just for the hell of it. Jays are not making the playoffs this year.
Cueto should have been in the game though.
Firstly they wanted to attest that the Reds would suck. Now, they are simply bargaining to get the best deal as they can.
Would be awesome if the Red Sox can trade for Cueto but that probably won’t happen. Look for the Astros or Blue Jays to be all over him since the Blue Jays are loaded with Dominican players.
The Red Sox shouldn’t be trading for Cueto. Right now they are in no position to overpay for a rental. They will be looking for controllable arms, as has been reported.
Cueto is the last thing the Red Sox need. They need long term pieces.
Last thing the Red Sox need is a high price rental.
Red Sox, please stay away from both of them… CONTROLLABLE arms is what we need, this is not the year for rentals.
Controllable arms will cost a lot of prospects and I hope they stay away from Hamels, no way I trade the farm for an over 30 year old pitcher who can’t pitch against AL teams. Good contract or not but Hamels is not the answer.
Can’t pitch against AL teams? Ugh.
Did you not see his last outing was against the Yankees? He also pitched against the Red Sox and both of those starts agains those 2 AL teams he didn’t pitch the 6th inning. Both of those starts are losses by the way.
Well sure those two starts are not a small sample size in any way whatsoever. Clayton Kershaw gave up like 10 runs to the Diamondbacks last year in one start. Did that mean he couldn’t pitch in the NL?
That’s just silly. Hamels is better than anything the Red Sox have now. They’re probably not going to make the deal, because they aren’t giving up top prospects for him, but it’s not because he’s not a really good pitcher. They just want younger arms that still have cheap team control.
Hoping for a Johnny Cueto-Daniel Norris deal, giving the Blue Jays an ace they need to win the NL East, while giving the Reds another good young arm.
It’s going to take more than just Daniel Norris to get Cueto. Maybe Norris + 2 other prospects, but not Norris one for one. Besides the Reds have plenty of young arms, they need a middle infielder or corner outfielder to be the lead guy in a deal. I’m still thinking he goes to the Royals for a package led by Raul Mondesi Jr.
I’m with you on the royals. They need that tor arm to carry them through playoffs and have the prospects to lose
not so sure about that – Norris for half a season of Cueto is not too far from the target I think
More than Daniel Norris? Sure, fine with me. The more the merrier. The Reds’ system has lots of young arms, but only a few (DeSclafani, Lorenzen, Iglesias, maybe Stephenson) expected to be ready by opening day, and they could use another close-to-ready arm. Also almost all rotation candidates are right-handed.
They could also use corner outfielders and middle infield prospects, and hopefully those needs can also be addressed in trades this month, even if they’re not specifically addressed in a Cueto deal.
Reds owner Bob Castellini probably wants to try to win again ASAP, and is likely to pursue a shorter-term rebuild involving Todd Frazier, rather than further down the road with Raul Mondesi Jr…
I was using the comparison of the 2012 Greinke trade to the Angels and the 2007 Sabathia trade to the Brewers. In both of those deals there was one top 40 prospect (Segura, LaPorta) and multiple lottery ticket types. It wouldn’t take another top prospect along with Norris, but I could see a couple of lesser prospects like Dwight Smith and maybe someone like Yeltsin Gudino to seal the deal. Don’t forget that it has been 22 years since Toronto went to the postseason and this is their best shot in years. They are probably the most likely to overpay.
I will be surprised if Cueto goes somewhere other than Toronto or Houston.
I don’t think they need a corner infielder with Votto locked up long-term and Frazier the new face of the franchise. I think they need corner outfielders like you said. Especially with Byrd likely to be gone and a 50/50 chance Bruce is too.
Wouldn’t mind the Yankees going after Mike Leake. Maybe something like Bryan Mitchell and Ramon Flores for him? Would have said Mason Williams, but he might need surgery and Heathcott is also injured. Cueto would be great, but it’s going to cost too much with too many teams involved.
Not enough. Leake is quite good, healthy and controllable. You need to talk top 5 organizational prospects.
Leake is a free agent after this year. Not exactly “controllable”
Mike Leake has a career 99 ERA+ and it is 94 this year. Id say hes pretty much a #3 pitcher, not higher, not lower.
I don’t know how long you consider controllable as controllable, but I’m pretty sure he is an upcoming FA
I also don’t see why the Yankees are interested since he is really only an upgrade on over 2 pitchers in their rotation who aren’t being removed (CC and Eovaldi).
For Mike Leake? No, I doubt that. He isn’t controllable, he is a free agent after this year.
Well, I know neither are going to the Orioles…..so.
Oh you do? 🙂
In theory yes, MB and maybe practicality.
How do you know what Duquette is doing again? Leake is the type of pitcher DD has been intrigued by in the past, FA at end of season not going to cost a fortune, fairly cheap. Feldman, Norris(yeah not a FA in 13 but under the radar), Saunders in 2012. And well if you think the Orioles are giving up the farm for Cueto you would be really wrong, many teams not including Baltimore are going to be wary of giving the farm up for a high priced rental like Cueto.
First time in a long time the Yankees might have answers to their flaws on the farm and also the first time a lot of their high-end guys are in the upper levels. Severino and Judge are untouchable in my mind and even if he wants to leave the door open, Cashman’s too. Call up Severino and make him a late inning reliever, this will need to happen for his innings anyway.
Call up Judge to give him the chance. Not filling a need but he’s earned it. Beltran off the books after next year, Sabathia ineffective – The Yankees have a need for both in the near future.
And they have secondary prospects with value too. They might make a deal for a second rate rental and give up a Flores/Williams type of prospect, but that’s the extent. I would be shocked if they traded any of the guys with a potential future here. Even Bird, who I don’t consider untouchable, may have a clear role here in a couple of years with Tex’s contract ending.
Love to see my Jays grab both Leake and Chapman – address a couple of issues
I think they will end up in the Bronx. In a trade envolving Aaron Judge.
Cueto, Chapman and Bruce for Polanco, Glasnow, Meadows & Bell? Pirates become clear WS favorites if that happens.
Wow! What a bold deal if it hapeens!
Too much. Pirates aren’t going to trade Glasnow or Bell. I would offer the Reds a package built around Polanco and another good prospect for Bruce and Cueto. Chapman would be a luxury and I think they would be better off targeting a solid middle reliever. Watson and Melancon are near the top of the list of best 8th 9th inning combos in baseball.
Simply put, prospects on contending teams are not as valuable to a franchise than top flight talent that can get the team to the holy grail. When you upgrade from Locke/Worley to Cueto and replace Caminero with Chapman, that’s absolutely worth any prospects in exchange for a possible title.
Or you keep all Glasnow and Bell and get bounced in the first round due to that weak back-end rotation, Polanco striking out and Caminero choking. That’s the reality.
No that is something you just made up that hasn’t happened. That is your opinion. Clearly the Pirates don’t agree which is why they have zero history of making these trades. You said it yourself “a chance at a title”. Then what happens? Cueto walks in the offseason. You don’t give up your next 5 chances at winning a title to try to win 1 this season. For the record Charlie Morton has had 1 bad start this season. IF you take that out his ERA is 2.65 over 51.1 innings. He is coming off seasons where he posted ERAs of 3.26 and 3.72 respectively. His peripherals back those numbers up too. If you think that is weak you should compare him to most other teams number 4 starters.
Pirates dont have much history of having a good farm and contending.
The A’s traded their future in Russell, McKinney & Cespedes for a shot at the title, which they failed basically on a fluke in the WS game.
I think replacing Glasnow for Kingham, it would be a very legit effort for the Bucs, if they are in ASAP win-now mode (which i don’t believe, but is possible).
I think both teams take that deal, too.
And i think a three headed monster of Watson, Melancon and Chapman would have a chance to be devastator in the post-season (remember the Royals last year…).
i Doubt the Bucs give up on the talent of Polonco.
Interesting proposal, but the Reds recently announced they strongly prefer to split up Cueto and Chapman to maximize the return. I think it’d be too much to give up for the Pirates, but I expect them to go get at least 1 arm and probably a bat.
They should try to get Trea Turner from the Nats in a deal involving Chapman.
If Bruce or even Cueto (abe seems to really want win ASAP) gets envolved, I think it’s a possibility.
I think a Chapman led deal could net Turner. Chapman + Bruce or Chapman + Cueto would take even more than Turner.
Trea Turner & Lucas Giolito should be the only 2 untouchables for the Nats. Plus I think they need OF/Corner infield help more then relief help I mean Drew Storen should’ve been an All Star this year. Wilmer Difo and 1 or 2 mid tier Nats prospects for Bruce or Byrd would be fine though
I’m REALLY curious to see how this deadline plays itself out. Some years have been pretty wild, and others have been pretty dull, and I’m not quite sure what to expect, but when was the last time we’ve heard about the Royals and Astros contemplating a trade to add an ace, at the trade deadline?
By far, Cueto is the most interesting piece in play. Who is going to pay for a rental of that magnitude? How much is going to cost? Will it pay off? What will it do to them down the road?
Obviously all we can do is throw our guesses into the air at this point, and that certainly is fun, but this is a super high risk/super high reward decision.
In the immortal words of Willy Wonka, “The suspense terrible! I hope it will last.”
Almost every playoff team should at least consider Chapman. Pairing him with another solid guy or two would be Royals v2.0. I’d *love* him on the Mets, except it isn’t practical bc Familia has the closer role nailed down and I’m not sure if Chapman showing up would cause friction. Maybe a championship opportunity will quiet egos.