Cubs president of business operations Crane Kenney indicates that the organization has the financial wherewithal to add to the big league roster at the trade deadline, David Kaplan of CSN Chicago reports on Twitter.
“There are financial resources if [president of baseball operations] Theo [Epstein] needs money to make a deal,” said Kenney. “No one I trust more to figure out what to do [than] Theo and [GM] Jed [Hoyer].”
While it is not exactly surprising to learn that the rising Cubs have the ability and willingness to spend, it is nevertheless notable for the organization’s top business executive to state that fact so clearly as the trade season heats up. It seems clear from his comments that the team’s purse is at least somewhat open for the front office to utilize in an effort to reach the postseason this year. And the comments also seem to indicate that ownership is handing plenty of leeway to its high-profile baseball decision-makers.
Chicago has, of course, already made at least one significant move in signing Rafael Soriano, who is working his way up to major league readiness and figures to factor in at the back of the pen. While the club reportedly prefers not to give up its very best talent in a deal, a prospective swap involving Javier Baez is said to have reached a reasonably advanced stage (before being scuttled in the wake of his injury).
The Cubs are focused primarily on starting pitching and left-handed outfield bats, per another recent report. Willingness to take on salary will obviously play a significant role in providing Epstein, Hoyer, and company with flexibility to structure an acquisition. With the club reportedly interested in adding an arm with come future control, the ability to absorb current and future salary commitments ought to reduce the amount of young talent required.
Schwarber, Baez and Dylan Cease for Cole Hamels
Papelbon for EJAX and Billy Mckinney
Take back EJax contract and stick him in the rotation while getting a better prospect for taking back that bad contract.
It will take more than that to get Hamels.
Schwarber is a good starting point but Baez has lost trade value.
For Hamels, which many contenders will be pursuing, it’ll take Schwarber, Baez, Pierre Johnson, and Gleyber Torres.
Hamels isn’t a rental for 1 or 2 years.
The Cubs would be better off pursuing Ian Kennedy, Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross along with Will Venable. Cheaper and fills two team needs.
Completely agree that it will take a headliner of Schwarber and then some to get Hamels. However, he isn’t going anywhere. I don’t think the Cubs are going to sell a guy like him who they plan to be a big part of their future. I don’t see them getting an ace type of guy at the deadline. There are a good amount of pitchers that are FA’s this coming offseason that the Cubs have the money to throw at. If they prove they are a fringe playoff team, it will definitely help lure a guy like Price, who has a strong relationship with Maddon even more.
The only place that Baez has lost trade value is with dummy fans in chat rooms–not with GMs–there is zero teeth to the statement that baez has lost trade value bc of a bad <60 games in the ML–Baez is only 9 months older than the number 1 and 2 draft picks of this years draft–both who play the same position as Baez. While they were hitting against collegiate pitchers- many of which will never sniff minor league ball, let alone AAA-Baez was hitting AAA at a clip of .314/.386/.536/.922 . Again, while being essentially the same age as the top 2 overall picks- the undervaluing of Baez has been insane on these chat posts- there is not one quote from a GM indicating that and there is zero truth behind it- quit blindly following narratives and do some actual fact-checking and look at the market.
I think the Cubs would take the Papelbon deal but I don’t think they will go after Hamels. They will make a move on Carpenter or Price or both in the off season. The Cubs are ahead of schedule right now and appear to be the second wild card without doing anything.
Carpenter?
Nah it makes more sense to give up a few prospects for hammels. Price is going to be a $200 million dollar man, I’d bet on the health of hammels over the next 4 years versus price over the next 8-10
every top prospect that becomes a major league starter saves the team roughly 40 million over 6 to 7 years compared to what they’d have to pay free agents on the open market.
even IF Prices gets 200 million, which i doubt because most people think Scherzer’s contract is really, really bad for the Nats… you’re still not likely saving money by trading that many top prospects for Hamels, who will only save you max 8 million a season, and probably less.
Finally someone gets it.
Figure that Price gets $30 million over six years while the Cubs go with a lineup that includes either Baez or Schwarber (it’d be tough to include both in the lineup, though it can be done if Schwarber can catch.) Regardless, let’s play the probability that only one of them lives up to the billing. Now, we can factor in that the player will earn roughly $31.5 million over 6 years (high arbitration figures, I know.) When you add that all together, the Cubs would be paying $211.5 million over 6 years for a TOR pitcher AND a middle of the order bat in LF. That’s an AAV of $35.25 million for the combination.
Making the Schwarber/Baez for Hamels trade puts the Cubs on the hook for at least $76 million over 3 years for Hamels. Not even factoring in the years to this, the Cubs would need to find a potential middle of the order bat in LF w/ an AAV of $10 million for the Cubs to get similar payroll value that they would’ve gotten from Price and Schwarber/Baez. So let’s look at last year’s hitters market…
Hanley Ramirez got an AAV of $22 million. Nelson Cruz, at 35, got an AAV of $14.25 million over 4 years. Nick Markakis got $11 million per year – but he hasn’t reached 20 home runs in a season since 2008. Michael Cuddyer, at 36, got an AAV of $10.5 million. Alex Rios got an AAV of $11 million. Tori Hunter got $10.5 million. Hell – Yasmany Tomas, a guy with zero MLB experience, got $11.4 million (which means I could logically argue that guys like Schwarber or Baez would be worth a similar contract if they could negotiate new deals right now.)
More than likely, the Cubs aren’t going to find a middle of the order bat to replace Schwarber or Baez in the lineup, and so they’ll play with one less big-time hitter than they could have otherwise. And they’ll do it for what – the chance to get a similar pitcher for less years? Sorry. This doesn’t make any sense at all for the Cubs.
Nicely written and well stated.. People tend to forget that if a team trades top prospects they are going to have to find someone to replace them. The reason the Cubs have money to spend is they are paying guys like Kris Bryant $471k this year.. If Schwarber comes up next year full time he will earn roughly the same.. People also tend to forget that the Cubs gave Schwarber and Baez bonuses of $3.1 million and $2.6 million respectively..
I agree with everything you said, and Maddon loves Price, and even if they get Carpenter for less money it is better than going after Hamels. I would trade Baez for a young ace like Syndergaard or even Wheeler. Both Wheeler and Baez are injured and fill the other teams weakness without strapping them!
Yeap-
If there will be a trade involving any of the Cubs middle-infielders it will be in offseason- and it will be Castro-
This trade season look for names like Wilson Contreras, Albert Almora, Billy McKinney, Mark Zagunis. Duane Underwood, Peirce Johnson, Dan Vogelbach, Corey Black, and maybe even Gleber Torres to pop up- and those names can easily land a bat and pitcher- Torres and McKinney are two top 50 prospects and Contreras, Vogs, and maybe Zagunis will all either be in or strongly considered for top 100 prospects when rankings come out updated around all-star break
Schwarber won’t be involved in a trade. They would trade Montero before him.
Are you implying that Schwarber will stick at catcher then? Because that isn’t happening.
People said similar things about Bryant when he was drafted and he’s starting at 3B in the MLB right now. Schwarber can absolutely stick at catcher. There have been far worse offensive catchers in the MLB over the years and if his bat develops his below-average defense won’t hurt him that much. You always have the option to move him to the OF, similar to Bryant. The Cubs want their top hitting prospects playing premium positions as those are the hardest to find on the open market.
Front offices operates under the best-case scenario with prospects until it affects their big league roster. That’s why Baez/Russell worked primarily at SS before spending a few days at 2B just ahead of their promotions – there was simply no need to move them off a premium position until 1) they were big league ready and 2) there was a need for them on the big league roster. It’s why a guy like CJ Edwards has worked primarily out of the pen this year – he’s on an innings count, and the team wants to keep those innings down so that he’s available to pitch them for them in September.
At this moment, the best-case scenario for the Cubs moving forward is to have a lineup that features Baez, Schwarber, Bryant, Russell, and Castro. Such a lineup is only possible if Bryant plays LF and Schwarber catches. If something changes – perhaps Baez proves unable to hit, gets dealt or moves to a middle infield position due to a Castro trade – then the best case scenario would no longer include Schwarber at catcher. In that case, the Cubs would not hesitate to move him to LF based on the big league club’s needs.
So as pertains to his catching, they’re letting him do it because it provides the great possible outcome for the club. The second that changes, they’ll move him.
I’d be surprised if the FO honestly thought the’d have Baez, Castro and Russell all playing the infield at the same time in the near future. At this point in time Schwarber might beat Baez back to the big leagues. I’d be surprised if Castro or Baez isn’t moved before someone like Schwarber.
If the Cubs didn’t plan for Baez to be playing 3B, then he wouldn’t have been playing it in the minor leagues just prior to his injury. That story kind of got lost with the injury, but the service time cutoff date for Baez (combined with his time earned a year ago) was just a few days away when he went down. Most thought he was going to be recalled on that date.
Russell is clearly a superior defensive shortstop compared to Castro.. I think the first to go will be Castro but you make a ton of sense.. More proof was in 2013 when Baez made 43 errors playing short, yet the Cubs kept him there.. Personally, I think he has a chance of sticking at catcher if he gets called back up and continues to learn under Montero.. He has a very special bat for a catcher.. But, so did Mauer, Gattis and so many others.. If he doesn’t stick at catcher I think the Cubs will move him for a different piece that they are missing.. If they do move him I personally think it will be for a stud pitching prospect like Wisler or Severino as opposed to a veteran like Hamels..
Schwarber absolutely will be catching for the Cubs. Plenty of good hitting outfielders and 1st basemen in their system. Not too many good hitting catchers available.
I think they would trade Schwarber for a young ace like Glasnow or Syndergaard.
From the looks of things though, and Cubs fans I’d love to hear your perspective, the Cubs aren’t really a team that’s missing a final piece and more of a team that has the bad luck to be in the same division as the 2 best teams in all of baseball.
One could easily make an argument that Castro and Fowler could be upgraded, with Russell possibly sliding over to SS or not, if what they’re implying is that they might take a run at Tulo here? Who has a big contract that could be traded? I can’t think of anyone but Tulo.
Hamels
It’s hard to say. Offensively, we have had a number of poor performances: Addison Russell (.226/.291/.357, 80 OPS+), Starlin Castro (.254/.290/.329 73 OPS+), and Dexter Fowler (.230/.308/.375 90 OPS+). Miguel Montero (.231/.333/.394, 101 OPS+) has been good enough especially given his position, but the lower average is still a concern for me. In the NL, with the pitcher’s spot, that’s a LOT of mediocrity to try to work around. Hard to get anything started when 4 of your 9 hitters are out so often. Doesn’t matter how good the other hitters are.
In the rotation, Hendricks has been just okay and the fifth spot is basically a question mark right now. Maybe Clayton Richard can hold it down, but he’s certainly not irreplaceable.
The problem is, where do you upgrade? Do you want to give up on Russell, even just for the reason? His bat has been bad, but his defense has been great after a slow start and I don’t know that there is much benefit to him being in the minors anymore. Castro is owed to much money to dump (not that I advocate it) and would be a ridiculous sell-low in a trade. Montero’s offense isn’t atrocious for a catcher, he’s doing well defensively and he’s well-regarded as a pitch framer. The only real option is a platoon option for Fowler, who is absolutely atrocious against righties this year, which is probably why the rumor is that the Cubs are looking for a lefty outfield bat.
So, there are places to upgrade but no easy answers as to how to upgrade them. As I’ve posted before, with this offeason being very deep in good starting pitching I don’t want the Cubs to use too much of their prospect depth chasing somebody like Cole Hamels. I can see a minor move for an outfielder to platoon with Fowler and eventually replace him next year, but that’s about it.
The thing about Folwer is that he has a .414 OBP against lefties the past 3 years vs. .328 against righties in the same time period. So this isn’t anything new…
As he’s a switch hitter, I’m curious if maybe there is a hole in his left-handed swing that’s easier for pitchers to exploit than is his swing from the opposite side of the plate. I think it’s worth exploring how much of these struggles have to do with the mechanics of a swing that can simply be remedied by hitting solely from the right side.
I’d have no problems him going that route as his left handed stats have never been great. Maybe it is his swing and not the platoon advantage that makes him hit better from the right side.
At this point though I think I’d rather platoon him and see if you can find a left handed CF. I’d give Alcantara that chance before looking out of house, he’s been hitting very well left handed at AAA.
Cubs appear to have a good chance of making the playoffs right now with the second wild card, and the playoffs are outlier. There is enough parity in baseball where a last place team can beat a first place team in a short series, the best team rarely wins. What mlb should do is give the team with the best record during the season a bye to the semi finals, and home field advantage throughout. Mlb should also look into a more balanced schedule during the season instead of teams playing each team in their division 18 times. The All-Star game should just be an exhibition if they aren’t picking the best players. Brock Holt is a nice utility man, but A-Rod is a star player having a good year.
In my opinion the Cubs are missing some veteran leadership.. Granted Castro and Rizzo have been around several years now but they are both only 25.. A guy like Gardner or Gomes would be a boost to the clubhouse.. I don’t believe they need much more talent wise.. Just a bit more confidence and a good mentor..
I am a Yankee fan, but I would say the Rizzo is more of a leader than either Gardner or Gomes. Rizzo is a young star player who came out before the season and said the Cubs would win the division, and Maddon liked that he said the same thing. The problem with Cubs is they are young.
Cubs have their share of spots to upgrade: CF (Fowler can’t hit right handed pitching), SS (Castro, while a former all star, just hasn’t lived up to his potential at the plate or in the field), Starter (Lester, Arrieta, Hammel and Hendricks are fine. Need another). I do agree that the hill is steeper because they have to contend with the Cards and the Bucs but if the World Series is the objective, they will have to beat them eventually.
So… Cubs won’t sign a starter before the deadline and if they do, it won’t be an ace (that spot belongs to David Price). They WILL sign a left handed CF to platoon with Fowler but won’t give up a lot to get one. I DO believe the Cubs will listen to offers involving Castro and Javier Baez.
just saying this right now before the trade proposals get ridicuous : Unless the Cubs are getting back a TOR type pitcher under the age of thirty and signed for less than 20 million a year for the next 4 years, Schwarber is NOT available.
That’s fine you are passionate about your prospects, but just remember that Jesus Montero was once viewed as a can’t-miss superstar catching prospect. If they love Schwarber so much, why don’t they just trade Montero now? The Braves are looking for a C and he’s a decent one.
If your point is that prospects fail, even highly regarded ones, then of course you’re right. But I’m not sure if that means you should be more or less willing to trade them.
Baez didn’t look good. Russell is doing poorly with the bat. Alcantara was completely overmatched. It’s easy to say “you should have traded them, then at least you would have gotten something.” In hindsight, yeah. But isn’t the point that we don’t know if prospects are going to pan out? Trading them simply for fear of them not working sounds like to me an excellent way of ensuring your team is full of aging players on expensive contracts near the end of their careers.
If all you’re concerned with is augmenting your current club’s odds or pushing in for your current “window,” maybe that’s enough. It’s not for me. I want what Theo promised when he took over: A constant contender. To do that, we need a constant stream of young players coming up and making an impact. That doesn’t mean we can never make a trade, even of a good prospect, but it does mean that I have to question the wisdom of pushing in for somebody like Cole Hamels before an offseason with lots of starting pitching options, for a team that seems to have a lot of holes for a legitimate playoff contender, and for which the best realistic hope of appearing in the playoffs is as a wild card.
Kyle Schwarber has a special bat – considerably better than the bat Montero possessed in the minors. Statistically, it’s not even close. In a full season of plate appearances across every level of the minor leagues, Schwarber has put up a .333/.429/.604 slash line. That’s eerily similar to what Kris Bryant did in roughly the same amount of time.
The issue with him is not his bat – it’s his ability behind the plate. He needs to develop back there. The Cubs can afford to be patient with him because there are a lot of young, potentially elite players on the big league club and in the high minors. If he can eventually develop back there, great – if he can’t, then he can easily move to LF.
We really don’t know if the front office is convinced Schwarber can do anything but DH. I’m not so sure he’s not available.
Name me any AVAILABLE TOR Pitchers Under 30 that fit your descriptions PLEASE. And you dare say SALE – then you must be willing to give up Schwarber, Baez, McKinney, Edwards, Johnson and Castro. (and that may not be enough!)
there aren’t any that i know of… but that’s sort of my point. Schwarber is arguably the top power bat in the minors because he’s so advanced. Power is a rare and expensive commodity these days, no matter where he ends up playing. So trading that for the type player the Cubs can simply buy in the off-season (and the Cubs will have the money), is just a straight up waste of resources.
the Cubs aren’t a desperate team this year, they’re still building for the long term.
The Mets have two (possibly 4 by this time next season) TOR pitchers under 30, signed for 4 years, and under $20m/yr. I don’t think you trade any of them unless you get a Trout/Harper type back because getting 3-4 prospects won’t help them for 2015-2018…their window before Harvey bails and goes for $$$$. Alderson could be talked into moving Syn for a legit bat.
Alderson would have to be absolutely bowled over with a trade proposal to move Syndergaard. I’m not overvaluing him here, just going by Alderson’s track record and whatever budgetary constraints the Wilpons are imposing. Syndergaard has a very high ceiling and costs essentially nothing over the next 3 years.
Mets problems, one owner is not willing to spend, two lack of position players, three lack of bench, four not will to sign a big free agent, five no great free agent position players, lack of position players in the minors. There only way to get some top bats is through trades of young pitchers.
The Cubs should call up beane about Sonny Gray. They have the prospects to get Gray who’s cost controlled through arbitration.
It would require Schwarber, Edwards, Baez, McKinney, Sands, almora/alcantara minimum but he’s young and pencils in at #2 behind Lester till 2019 or 2020. Spend the money they’d use on price or sale to fill other team needs.
If there was an arm worth cashing in for (Mets excluded bc I’m biased)….I think Gray is the guy.
So the Cubs want a TOR arm, and aren’t willing to part with Russell, Soler, Bryant, Schwarber or Carl Edwards jr?
You aren’t gonna touch a Hamels or Cueto or Kazmir without parting with good top prospects.
Russell, Schwarber, Soler or Bryant? no.
the Cubs are 4 or 5th in team ERA in the entire league. they’re not desperate for pitching. And the FA market for pitcher is deep this off-season.
Why would any intelligent person panic about this and give away part of the future to bolster what’s already a team strength? The thing the Cubs should be worried about is their hitting.
Your ERA can be as low as you want, but it doesn’t change the fact you have 4 competent starters.
You can wait until next year to spend, but you’re blowing this year. They need a starter. The Cubs can’t upgrade their hitting. Are you going to upgrade over Russell? Soler? Castro? If you’re going to upgrade over one of them, might as well trade them for a good starter. Obviously the Phillies don’t want Castro. How are you planning to upgrade your offense so drastically? A platoon with Dexter Fowler isn’t going to change a ton.
frankly i’m not expecting the Cubs to do much of anything this year. Theo himself has said, quite correctly, that big deadline moves don’t have a great record of being difference makers. I Think the cubs will either make a few very quite moves for depth or one very big move only if they think they’re getting good value for it.
I think Phillies fans are delusional in thinking the Cubs want Hamels enough to meet their ridiculous expectations and that most trade proposals involving the Cubs are just people trying to mine the top farm system in baseball because their own team is desperate for prospects.
I’m a Cubs fan with realistic expectations. the Cubs can’t trade for the several years of experience Bryant, Soler and Russell are going to need to make them more consistent, and Lester, Arietta and Hammel have pitched good enough to give the Cubs a chance in a playoff series if the bats show up.
Personally i’d rather them do nothing than do something for the sake of doing something.
RAJ is at the helm in Philly…lord knows what he’ll ask for…but I’m sure it will be too much.
The Cubs are blowing this year? Hahaha. They’re 8.5 games out and battling for a chance to play in a single-elimination playoff game. I’d much rather them blow this year than to give up a ton of prospects just to lose that one game at the end of the year…
Hi Cubs. Carl Crawford has his bags packed and is ready to go whenever you say the word.
you can send him over but we’re not sending anything back.
You might if the Dodgers included a bunch of cash with the deal, and you know they would. The Dodgers really need to unload Crawford.
no, we wouldn’t… he doesn’t even have a .700 OPS this year. He’s in no way an upgrade for the Cubs at all.
If he’s not free, good luck finding anybody wanting to trade for him…
He doesn’t have a .700 OPS in 15 games? Guy must be terrible.
Hes been hurt, the Cubs wanted an LH OF bat and Crawford isn’t a terrible one. Hes only ever had 1 full season with an OPS under .700, and it was his only full year in Boston
The biggest problem in dealing Crawford is the current injury. Oblique strains can be tricky and he just started a rehab assignment after a long DL stint. Still the Dodgers would probably pay a lot to open his roster spot.
so he’s coming back from injury, he’s ‘not terrible’, and he’s owed another 43 million dollars over the next 2.5 years.
the Cubs are supposed to want to trade FOR that why exactly?
he’s topped out at 116 OPS+ over the last 5 seasons… he’s vastly over-paid and he’s barely an upgrade over what the Cubs already have. and oh yeah, he’s injury prone and on the wrong side of 30
You missed the part where the Dodgers send over a bunch of cash. That makes his contract immaterial. Whether he’s an upgrade over anything the Cubs have already I can’t say, but as we’ve seen in LA, a healthy Crawford is a valuable player. He was starting to get his speed back when he was hurt again.
Theo is not going to make the same mistake he did in Boston, getting Crawford when he’s clearly overpaid and on the decline. That’s why Theo is building an offense from within.
How did you also miss the part where the Dodgers send over a bunch of cash? Crawford is not actually on the decline. In fact he bounced back very nicely last season. He could have swiped 35 bases last season if he hadn’t twisted his ankle on a play. He could be an upgrade for a number of teams.
There’s no way Theo makes the same mistake twice getting Crawford.
Niese, Montero, and Herrera for Castro? Herrera can be the future 2nd baseman and move Russell to SS where he belongs. Put Baez in the OF.
Not sure the Mets would want to more Herrera and Montero for a guy doing as bad as Castro has. He hasn’t been any better than Flores this year.
Well Flores is the 2nd baseman now and I think Castro, as bad as he’s been, will be better than Tejada. That’s the reason why I included Herrera. The Mets gave up the experiment of Flores at SS and moved him to 2nd. Since then he’s gotten 12 hits in 4 games and looked much smoother defensively. I think he can be the future 2nd baseman and Herrera can be moved.
Castro isn’t very good. I wouldn’t do that if I were the Mets. Remove one of Montero/Herrera and it becomes an interesting deal.
Hey, I’m all for that
Last I checked Castro had more errors than Flores, was rocking a .620 OPS, and didn’t have the best attitude. If you can get him for a bag of balls…maybe, but not a cost-controlled 3/4 (montero), a very young but shown some talent SS/2B (Herrera), and a 3/4ish lefty who can eat some innings for the next 2.5 years (Niese). I’d trade Niese + lower level guy for Baez…not Castro.
not the best attitude? Who’d you check with on that one?
From a Mets fan POV..
Jon Niese for Starlin Castro seems even given performances from players this season and their contracts.
Yea – except Jon Niese has zero value to the Cubs. He’d be their 5 starter… So what’s the incentive in this for the Cubs?
The cubs would move Castro from SS and place anyone of their more talented young SS there. They would move the remaining $40+ mil on his contract which right now given his performance seems like a bad contract. Yea maybe Niese isn’t the quality of starter the Cubs are looking for but if they are looking for more of a deGrom then Castro isn’t likely to be quality enough a return to be part of the conversation. The Cubs have been openly reluctant to trade any of their big time prospects which is most likely why a trade between the two hasn’t happened and most likely won’t happen.
It seems like a no brainer to me Baez for Wheeler, both fill needs and are out of action, although this trade could be made in the winter!
That trade lacks so much sense, it almost makes sense.
However, I can’t see the Cubs trading for a pitcher who won’t pitch until the middle of 2016, while letting go of a former top 10 prospect in all of MLB to do so. Plus I’m not so sure how Baez’s power will play in Citi Field.
‘while letting go of a former top 10 prospect in all of MLB…’
You know Wheeler was #11 on BA and #5 on BP. So if you are judging on Prospect rank alone you are trading apples to apples.
True – but a hitter with a broken finger comes back in 4-6 weeks, and might feel some discomfort for another 10-14 days. A pitcher who tears his UCL comes back a year later and, best case scenario, pitches through discomfort for a half season — and that’s if he ever feels normal throwing again.
Andre Ethier would seem a good fit for the Cubs for EJAX. – as well as Papelbon and Cash for Baez.
I don’t believe the Cubs will be making any moves before the deadline that affect the rotation simply because they have David Price in their sights and he won’t cost them prospects. The Cubs might be looking for a platoon (lefty bat) in center field (Fowler vs righties .210/.289/.683).
‘(Price) won’t cost them prospects.’
Technically it will cost them a first round pick next year if he signs, so it will cost them a (future) prospect.
So let’s have some fun with Cole Hamels to the Cubs…
Cole Hamels most comparable pitcher, according to Baseball-Reference, is James Shields.
The Cubs could have signed James Shields in the off-season but refused to go past a 3yr/$60 million offer.
Cole Hamels is guaranteed a minimum of $76.5 million over the next 3 years.
To acquire Cole Hamels, the Cubs would have to give up Kyle Schwarber, Javier Baez and any number of other prospects.
So if you’re keeping score at home — There exists a group of people who believe that six months after refusing to give Shields $20 million over 3 years… that the Cubs are going to give a similar pitcher $25.5 million over the same period of time. And that to do this, they’re going to give up multiple, potentially elite prospects.
I believe the stipulation on a possible trade was that Philly would absorb part/all of Hamels’ contact to get the best possible haul in return.
So let’s get to the heart of this and talk real numbers…
Hammels contract includes a $20 million team option for 2019 – with an additional $4 million that could vest based on certain plateaus. As he has a NTC, which the Cubs are on, it’s unlikely he’d accept the deal to the Cubs unless they agreed to guarantee the entirety of the option, vesting included (this is common practice, and oftentimes the reason big market teams are included on NTCs.) That would bring the total value of the Hamels deal to $94.5 million over 4 years. That’s not including the money owed to Hamels this year – which would be 1/3 of his 2015 salary, pending the trade happening on July 31st ($7.83 million)
That brings this to $102.3 million over 4.3 years – which is an AAV of $23.8 million. That’s $3.8 million more per year than they were comfortable giving James Shields 6 months ago. Factor that over the 4.3 year remaining on the deal, and the Phillies would need to send back at least $16.34 million to make that money match.
But here’s where this gets tricky… The 3 years / $60 million was a comfortable figure for the Cubs because they aren’t paying most of their hitters! if they trade Schwarber and Baez, then they’re going to be in the market for at least one, possibly 2, big offensive additions. So the figures change for the Cubs at that point, and I can’t begin to figure by how much – but I’d start by assuming it’s a lot since hitters aren’t cheap.
How about a trade for someone like Charlie Blackmon from the Rockies? Lefty bat with power. I could see him fitting in with the cubs.
You beat me to it. He’s the guy I want. It’s a perfect fit. And I believe he can be had without giving up any of the elite prospects. It just makes so much sense. But that means it probably won’t happen, unfortunately.
I was reading some where that the Cubs and Halos talked and it was Billy McKinney for CJ Wilson with a prospect…level of prospect dictated by how much contract the Cubs were willing to take on.
Now I don’t know much about McKinney but his bio on mlb.com says basically he is a high average light hitting corner OF.
How about a left handed outfielder that can play all 3 spots, has postseason experience, and is familiar with Maddon and the Cubs? David DeJesus?
Coco crisp?
How about a trade for Jorge de la rosa? Lefty pitcher…
Or Wade Miley from Boston?