Dave Cameron of Fangraphs opines that we may be headed for the “most extreme sellers’ market in years” given the unprecedented parity in the American League and a lack of sellers in the National League. Only 8.5 games separate the best team in the AL and the second-worst, Cameron notes, and the worst club (the Athletics) can be reasonably expected to turn things around if one believes in the estimation of a context-neutral system like BaseRuns (of course, Oakland’s hole may be too deep to escape even if their luck turns). In the NL, only the Phillies and Brewers are clear sellers, and even potential sellers like the Diamondbacks and Marlins are loaded with young, controllable players as opposed to appealing veteran assets. The Reds and Rockies may eventually sell also, but they’re close enough to .500 at this time that they may wait until late in trade season to market their players. Cameron adds that if the Rox “really won’t trade Tulowitzki in this market, where there might not be another significant power hitter available, then they should just never trade him.” I’m inclined to agree that it’s difficult to imagine a better market for Colorado to move Tulowitzki, particularly if he continues a torrid hot streak that is silencing any previous concerns about his health.
A few more trade-related notes as we begin to get the time of year when teams will shift their focus to improving the 25-man roster…
- It’s no secret that the Dodgers could use a quality starter, and Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com writes that the club is looking at the very top of the market. The top Dodgers target is Nationals righty Jordan Zimmermann. Other preferred names include Johnny Cueto of the Reds and David Price of the Tigers. Of course, it’s far from clear what kind of deal would interest contenders like Washington and Detroit, and Saxon notes that Los Angeles has no reason to believe at this point that Zimmermann could be had via trade. While Cueto is obviously expected to be available, it’s hard to imagine the other two arms being dealt barring some significant change (e.g., loss of a major player to injury or a rather dramatic slide in the standings) or serious creativity in structuring a deal.
- Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon has seen his name in the news today, and ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark adds to the reports indicating that Philadelphia is increasingly interested in moving the veteran. Rivals think that the Phils may be looking to deal Papelbon sooner rather than later in order to get out ahead of other clubs that might sell off late-inning arms — namely, the Athletics (Tyler Clippard) and Reds (Aroldis Chapman).
- It remains to be seen what kind of return the Phillies can achieve on Papelbon, but the club’s apparent willingness to keep some of the salary obligations will obviously help on the prospect side of the equation. Corey Seidman of CSNPhilly.com attempts to gauge Papelbon’s value by looking at recent deals involving late-inning arms, indicating that the club might be interested in bolstering its organization depth with multiple prospects if it can’t pry loose a single player that it really likes.
- The Blue Jays undeniably have a need at the back of the pen, writes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca, but the club does not seem any closer to reaching agreement on Papelbon. While the teams have indeed chatted recently, Davidi says that Philly is still not willing to take on enough of Papelbon’s salary to make an agreement palatable. And Toronto is not looking to part with its better minor league talent, perhaps buoyed by the fact that there is not a ton of demand for Papelbon. The Jays are definitely constrained by financial limitations, says Davidi, who sums it up thusly: “in all likelihood they have one, maybe two moves in them, so they can ill-afford a costly roll of the dice.”
- Twins GM Terry Ryan says that the failure of last year’s mid-season Kendrys Morales  signing will not cause the team to pause in pursuing an upgrade this summer, as Derek Wetmore of 1500ESPN.com writes. “I would do it again if I had an opportunity,” Ryan said of the Morales move. “It just didn’t work.” He went on to say that the club is looking to see what it can do to take advantage of its nice start: “We’re doing pretty good and we certainly have to have our eyes open,” Ryan said. “We’re in contention, there’s no secret here. We have an opportunity to do some things and hopefully we’ll be able to.”
Karl Larson
The Twins should target Adam Lind. They need a left-handed power bat in the middle of their lineup. They wouldn’t have to give up the farm to get him, and he’s only signed through this year so there are no long-term commitments.
We.Need.More.Grit
With an option for next year at 8 million I think, so if he performs, they have a cheap 1B/DH or a trade piece.
Karl Larson
True.
Steven Garrison
I disagree, the angels need to pick lind up
We.Need.More.Grit
You disagree with everything then offer a pointless trade. Lind would fit the Twins, middle of the order bat and at a spot they could use. For you, the Angels could have had Hamilton and instead are eating what, 68 million to let him play for a rival. Not to mention their complete and utter lack of any farm prospects. The Twins, they have pieces they can move if they wish, Angels, not so much.
Steven Garrison
the angels do have the prospects to get it done but they are holding onto their pitching future they have with tropeano/heaney and newcomb. the twins I don’t think will be around for a wildcard, they have surprised me this year
We.Need.More.Grit
They’ve surprised everyone, but you just said the angels won’t deal and thus, no trade. Pure speculation.
Steven Garrison
They wanted to make a trade for ben revere but amaro was asking for one of those three prospects I listed
willi
This a Strategy on the part of Dodgers , they are not going to pay a Top Dollar Prospect for a Rental. Hamels is their Target , But Pay they must !
Steven Garrison
I believe they will pony up and trade for hamels
citizen 2
Wait until the trade deadline and most of the teams in the al as well as nl race could more or less be either in the race for the playoffs or well out of it.
NickinIthaca
I punted saves this year and have been holding Ken Giles since draft day, hoping that Papelbon would be traded sooner than later. So my guess is that he is a Phillie through the end of the year.
scann
Hamels should be the guy they target….if they want to spend top prospects…next would be Cueto….I don’t see Price or Zimmerman getting traded because their teams are trying to win this season….
scann
Also the Rockies should look hard at the Met’s for an Tulo deal…They could get good Pitching and won’t disappoint their fan base…now that they just drafted Brendan Rodgers as their future short-stop……
Jo JoAnne
Getting the Mets to pay Tulo’s contract is going to be the only obstacle..
scann
If they could get Syndergaard or Degrom to headline the package….they should be willing to kick-in 20 to 30 mil…..
Mark 20
You really think the mets would part with Degrom? No way… 0% chance. I dont think they even give up Syndergaard.
scann
With their depth of starters they shouldn’t have a problem dealing one of those guy’s to get the bat they’ve needed…to win the nl east and make a run at the title……
We.Need.More.Grit
The Mets have clearly pointed out that they will not deal from their young SP. Matz included, I could see them dumping Gee and Neise for small position players but they aren’t parting with a top pitcher. They weren’t even supposed to be in it this year, just like the ‘Stros. Give them a year, those front 5 matched with any scrappy offense will carry them. No need to rush into a trade for an aging slugger with injury history and a large contract.
Sleeper
The first problem is I highly doubt Syndergaard or Degrom leave the organization unless the return is mind boggling, and it still wouldn’t be an easy call. The second problem is the Mets’ ownership has shown quite a bit of restraint/incapability in spending much money, 20 to 30 mil just won’t happen.
Mark 20
I hope he meant the rockies send 20-30 mil with tulo.
Jo JoAnne
Neither of those pitchers are going to be traded for Tulo.. The only way I can see the Mets trading either of them would be for someone like Addison Russell, Corey Seager, or Carlos Correa.. A top of the rotation arm in his early 20’s is a rare thing.. They would be foolish to trade any of their pitching studs for a shortstop in his 30’s who can’t stay off the DL.. His big contract is an after thought.. Don’t get me wrong I like Tulo a lot but would the Cubs trade Soler or Bryant for Hamels? The Mets are starting to look like the Braves of the early 90’s.. If David Wright could stay healthy he would be their version of Chipper Jones.. They had a great dynasty using the likes of Walt Weiss and Jeff Blauser at short.. The Mets don’t need someone like Tulo.. They just need an above average shortstop that has great defense.. In a few years all of these young guns are going to start hitting arbitration and eventually free agency.. I would rather they keep the funds necessary to extend these guys well into the future than shelling out $20 million for a 34 year old SS in 2019 and beyond.. Could you imagine a rotation where somebody like Zack Wheeler is your #5? Downright frightening.. Personally, I would like to see the Mets stay on course and dominate for a decade a couple of years from now than trade a couple of their studs for a shot at a wild card this year..
I WILL FINE HIM
I don’t know if the Mets will trade any of their extremely talented young pitching. They seem to be more interested in getting rid of Niese and Gee than using any of those young guys to pick up a bat.
Karl Larson
The Mets will not give up any of their top pitching prospects for Tulo. Seattle is the most likely destination for him at this point because their GM is desperate enough to make the deal.
Jo JoAnne
Agreed, but would Seattle be willing to part with Walker or Paxton plus other prospects to get him? Tulo is going to require a package equal to or exceeding Hamels..
Steven Garrison
I don’t see anyone trading for tulo due to his contract and his health.
Jo JoAnne
Some desperate GM will bite the bullet and grab him.. Like the previous poster suggested Seattle is a prime candidate.. They have pretty much committed the organization to winning in the next year or two with the Cano, King Felix, and Cruz contracts.. If they continue to flounder he will be on the hot seat.. The problem will be how Tulo’s bat will translate to the AL west and the price he will have to pay to bring him over.. But I agree with you 100%.. Whoever trades for Tulo and expects to get more than this year and maybe next out of an injury prone shortstop in his 30’s is a fool.. If his bat does translate well he would have a chance to stay healthy by moving into a dh role.. His bat would have to carry similar stats to what he has done in Colorado though.. 20-25 hr and 80 rbi would be a serviceable dh.. Unfortunately, Seattle is already full of dh candidates.. Besides Matt Holliday, I can’t think of another player that continued with all star stats after they left Coors Field.. Although, his did take quite a step back in Oakland..
JMM
The Mets aren’t trading their best young pitching and they don’t want Tulo’s contract.
rct 2
As others have said, the Mets aren’t going to part with their top young pitchers. They have five potentially great young starters (Harvey, deGrom, Wheeler, Syndergaard, and Matz), but injuries happen. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them deal Montero, Niese, and/or Gee, but none of those are enough to get Tulo, even with his contract. I don’t see a fit.
Dock_Elvis
My feeling is that Colorado might never deal Tulo anyway. I think it’s easy to see them as continual also-rans…but they might feel that way…especially with their #8 and improving system. I could even see them adding a decent vet arm in a trade. That two wild card system changes thinking so much. Other thought on Tulo is that some team might get crazy and make that splash move for him.
Carlos760
I don’t see the dodgers giving up any elite prospect. Or trading guerrero unless they get a good prospect, even though he can option out in the end of the year if he’s traded.
We.Need.More.Grit
Mattingly seems to not enjoy Guerrero, according to his playing time, he’s getting overlooked by ALBERTO CALLASPO. I think, if a team even offers something half way decent, say a good not great back-end starter, they’d jump at it. I’m thinking Harang type, nothing amazing, and could get more if the club receiving him gets his agent/him to agree not to opt out and make it a club option.
Cam
It’s absolutely mind-boggling what Donnie is doing. He won’t play Guerrero ahead of Chris Heisey in the outfield, he won’t play him ahead of Callapso in the infield..he just lets that 152 WRC+ bat cool on the bench.
Carlos760
I’m sure guerero would be starting for alot clubs except for donnie baseball lol.
Carlos760
I don’t know why don doesn’t play him. He’s clutch he works the count, he’s defense isn’t the best but I rather have his bat than callaspo. And for a back end of the rotation guy they have zach who’s been pitching good in the minors. And supposedly next year they want to use one of the guys they drafted for their rotation.
Cam
I’m still not buying on the theory that the Dodgers will pursue a top-end rental other than Hamels. I know their window is open this year, but trading chips that they have strongly resisted doing previously, and undermining their best asset (the ability to pay in free agency), doesn’t make sense.
Pony up for someone when they hit the market, and keep building the farm.
Carlos760
I don’t see the dodgers trading any of their elite prospects. As you’ve seen they paid for webbs contract just got a draft pick. I believe that says were not trading prospects but, would buy them lol.
Steven Garrison
I believe they will, If they did get hamels they would have insurance incase greinke does opt out which I believe he will and test the market, he’s having a cy young type year
Stanom Miller
Music is my passion, it inspires me always. When I’m alone, I like to turn up the music aloud, the beats and rhythms give me energy and motivate’s me.
Steven Garrison
A few things, I believe that the dodgers will pony up and make a trade for hamels, they are in win now mode and I don’t think they would give up prospects for Kazmir or Cueto on a 3 month rental. Hamels would also give them insurance incase greinke does opt out which I believe he will, Just look at the year he is having, And then for the angels I believe they make a couple trades , starting with adam lind and then that rumor of C.J Wilson for Andre Ethier, I think that gets done, the hamels one I think will happen, And Papelbon I believe will fit pretty good with the cubs.
oh Hal
I think you’re confusing “win now” with “win regularly.” Hamels requires a deal with Ruben Amarro, that is several top prospects. I’m not a Friedman expert, but that seems totally opposite of my impression of how he would act.
Pretty much the same for the Cubs and Papelbon.
And I think its tough for the Angels to get Lind. After their top 2 pitchers, the minors is pretty bleak.
Dock_Elvis
Someone will swing and miss on Hamels…and that’s where the Reds need to play the cards right with Cueto and Leake
Steven Garrison
I think the red sox make a package for cueto and chapman, but for hamels I do believe that the dodgers pony up and trade for him.
Dock_Elvis
Really would like to see Joe Kelly back to Cincinnati in that deal and have the Reds test him in a late inning role. Not that I wouldn’t want a minor league prospect as well
Steven Garrison
the red really need to move cueto and try to rebuild , because they can’t move votto , nobody would want to take on his contract.
Dock_Elvis
Wonder what Frazier and his 2.5 seasons of control would bring back on the market? Reds could do some serious system restructuring
Dock_Elvis
Leake and an autographed Johnny Fever WKRP photo to Boston for Joe Kelly and a Norm Peterson Cheers auto photo
Aaron Stahl
Sonny Gray is the one guy that would be worth a ton of prospects. The problem with any team going after him is that Beane is going to get a ridiculous haul for him. For the Dodgers, Seager would be probably the prospect most sought after by Beane after the Russell debacle. From there it probably gets crazy, does he ask for Pederson and Urias as well? Are the dodgers willing to give that up.
We.Need.More.Grit
If the Dodgers wouldn’t trade prospects for Kazmir or Cueto, why would they trade MORE for Hamels? This isn’t Ned Colletti running the club anymore, Seager and Urias are untouchable. They’ll go after a Harang type and part with much less, Hamels isn’t worth Amaro’s outrageous requests. Let them sit on that contract and maybe, just maybe, Amaro would lose his job for completely sucking at his job.
Steven Garrison
they will trade for hamels , I said it all offseason that they would because greinke I believe will opt out of his contract, And I think they let Urias go as the main piece and keep Seager
We.Need.More.Grit
Even if Grienke opts out, why not resign him and keep Urias? If they want to spend, spend on the better pitcher and keep the prospect. Urias and Kershaw would be two of the best lefties and a heck of a 1-2-3 with Grienke splitting the two.
Steven Garrison
I just think he does opt out of his contract, he’s having a cy young type season , But we will see what will happen, I think the cubs could make a package for papelbon though.
We.Need.More.Grit
He can opt out all he wants, and he will, but the Dodgers can and should sign him back, save the prospects and be happy.
bobbleheadguru
The Dodgers print money. Why should they need to give up prospects at this point?
Pay Price/Cueto/Zimmerman eleventy billion dollars in 5 months.
Ray Ray
Because in 5 months the 2015 World Series will be over. I believe they are intending on participating in that event.
TheMick
Exactly…with the expectations and payroll the Dodgers have now and have had the past couple years, anything short of winning a WS will be considered as coming up short.
bobbleheadguru
Dodgers/Tigers were mentioned in Detroit Sports radio yesterday morning. Price for Puig. Otherwise, it is not worth it for the Tigers. I would guess the price tag is similar for Zimmerman.
Cueto is a little different, more prospects, but it is not going to be cheap. It will hurt to get any of those three players. Hurt so much that I doubt a deal gets done.
Terie54
It is not worth it for the Tigers. The dodger would have lost it if they dealt such a great young player who could win multiple MVP’s and go on to greatness for 3 months of David Price.
bobbleheadguru
Don’t have to convince me… You have to be willing to make an “unfair” trade if you want an ace.
From Doyle Alexander in 1987 (traded for Smoltz) to Jon Lester in 2014, the price for ace starting pitching rentals has been sky high. No reason that should change in 2015.
Terie54
I just don’t see the dodgers trading Puig it seems illogical. Cespedes was traded for Lester so the A’s could make a push and because there was little chance of Cespedes signing a contract extension. The Dodgers have a long deal on Puig.
bobbleheadguru
Cespedes could actual come back in that deal.
Price and Cespedes for Puig.
Brixton G.
two 2 month rentals for 4 years of a consistent Allstar? I’d say no if I’m the Dodgers.
stl_cards16
And Puig is much better than Cespedes and it’s not even close.
Dock_Elvis
John Smoltz is retrospective… I’m not sure that was sky high at the time…if I remember correctly he was a secondary player in that deal
bobbleheadguru
Just 2 examples out of maybe 10+ over that time period.
Dock_Elvis
Receiving teams don’t always know what they are getting. I’m not really disagreeing with you…I think prospect arms are easier to deal than bats..there’s so much uncertainty. But in the Smoltz case there wasn’t as much info floating around.
Dock_Elvis
Receiving teams don’t always know what they are getting. I’m not really disagreeing with you…I think prospect arms are easier to deal than bats..there’s so much uncertainty. But in the Smoltz case there wasn’t as much info floating around.
Dock_Elvis
Smoltz was the 5th player asked for by Atlanta after the previous 4 were shot down by Detroit…and the reason they ended up asking for him was because one of their scouts had occasioned to see him throw in rookie ball
Dock_Elvis
I can’t imagine Puig in Detroit
stl_cards16
Puig is a little out there, but trading him for a half season of any pitcher is laughable.
bobbleheadguru
Laughable deals are what Tigers are looking for. They think their window is not closed. You have to overwhelm them if you want Price.
Brixton G.
Price for Puig? Thats a ridiculous overpay for 2 months of Price.
bobbleheadguru
I am not arguing. But that is what you have to do to get him…. as many other teams have done for 3+ decades (Trading for an Ace… paying a huge price).
Brixton G.
You don’t trade your best position player for a rental. They could offer different pieces for Cueto or offer Urias for Hamels if they are THAT desperate, trading Puig doesn’t help their team.
I WILL FINE HIM
Price for Puig is not a rational trade proposal in any sense. 3 months of an Ace is laughable compared to 4 years of an All-Star OF. Price would need to be the best pitcher in the history of baseball over the next 3 months to only be a terrible trade for the Dodgers.
bobbleheadguru
LAD wants to win a world series. Tigers do too.
If LA wants Detroit to give up their 2015 dreams, they have to overwhelm the Tigers. Otherwise, it is not rational for the Tigers to give up a true ACE that could win 5 games in a World Series run.
I WILL FINE HIM
Difference is LA is built to compete for a World Series for the next 10 years. Trading Puig harms their chances over the next few years. Detroit has zero reason to trade Price and LA has zero reason to trade for him if they have to laughably overpay for him. The deal is absolutely ludicrous even if LA was willing to overpay by a ton.
Some people don’t like Puig, but he is a top 10 talent in all of baseball and has perform like one over his brief career. You don’t trade those guys for a rental. Puig only goes for another top 10 player or for multiple elite prospects.
TheMick
Papelbon is by far the best closer on the trade market this year. With the Phils willing to eat money on the contract they should be able to get back at least one top 100 prospect and a couple other lesser prospects. See the Huston Street trade to the Halos in Corey Seidman’s article linked above.
Papelbon is still an elite closer whose performed better in the post season (1.00 ERA, 0.815 WHIP) than the regular season. The Phils are only 248-298 since Papelbon arrived which has limited his save opportunities, yet in 3+ seasons he’s picked up 118 saves and is the Phils all-time leader. Currently he has a 1.13 ERA, 0.917 WHIP and 10.9/SO9. Any team that needs a closer and believes they have the other pieces to win a WS should be targeting Papelbon as their first choice.
Mark 20
Him or Chapman
TheMick
Chapman’s definitely a top closer with a great K rate, but his 1.354 WHIP due to his high BB rate makes him more of a gamble. Papelbon has a 4.83 K/BB ratio while Chapman’s is 2.65. Also Chapman’s post season play is limited to less than 5 unspectacular innings. All things considered with winning a WS this year, I’d still take Papelbon over Chapman.
Terie54
Chapman is better than papelbon but the reds have him on a long contract so the asking price will be higher.
Dock_Elvis
How long does Chapman’s contract run, because if Cincinnati does a rebuild right they are a few seasons away from contention in that division. I had a discussion with someone else on the feasibility of dealing Todd Frazier as well…I didn’t like the idea on the surface…but the more I thought the more I agreed. Votto isn’t going anywhere…Bailey…those contracts are like continental sized anchors right now until they can get the system running.
Terie54
He is under arbitration control until 2017
Dock_Elvis
So they could very easily end up paying him 10m to close for a few seasons before he walks. I’m not sure they can compete before then. Good time to deal him if they are going to.
Terie54
But what if they are trying to sign him long term?
I would try to sign him. In my opinion he is the best closer with Kimbrel right behind him.
Dock_Elvis
That’s probably a mistake…just given the nature of closers and the status of where the team is. Yeah…he’s good…but that’s great value in a trade, for an honestly overrated, ability to rack up saves.
Dock_Elvis
They have so many long term deals now… They can’t even extend Frazier.
Dock_Elvis
If I’m the Reds I try and pull down Joe Kelly in any deal with Boston. Reds should have some time next season to attempt to convert Kelly to a top flight reliever if Chapman is dealt.
Dock_Elvis
K rate helps offset a BB rate because it keeps the ball out of play .but I see what you mean.
Terie54
I would take Chapman over Papelbon any day. The question is how willing are the reds to deal Chapman?
Dock_Elvis
Reds probably won’t flaunt Chapman with Papelbon so obviously available…Papelbon becomes leverage against them and the Reds need to deal players deftly
oh Hal
Why would Amarro drop his price that low? Are you citing those stats because you think anyone here has forgotten them? The half dozen Phillies fans who dominate these discussions won’t let that happen.
TheMick
Low price? You obviously didn’t read the article regarding what SD got for Street.
oh Hal
I’m sure Amaro wants much more than some guy from the bottom of the top 100 and a couple throw ins. I’d expect him to keep Papelbon, let his option vest, and trade him at the offseason.
And for what its worth, a rapidly fluctuating, highly volatile auction market isn’t like trading pork bellies.
Diarrhea Milkshake
wouldn’t be the end of the world. Im sure paps would be a complete turd for the rest of the season after the deadline. As long as he keeps pitching the way he is, no need to worry, the Phillies will get some nice prospects for him. GM’s understand opportunity costs… ask the nats GM when they shutdown strasburg… no guarenette you’ll get back, so sooner or later… you gotta go for it, or you will be waiting for the perfect time that your MLB club has 9 alllstars, 5 aces, # of closers, and minor league system that has multiple layers of prospects that are better than your current MLB Allstar team. Gotta pay to play.
Matt St.
So Toronto wants the Phillies to pick up most of Papelbon’s salary but not give up any good prospects in exchange. And people say Amaro is delusional. Not that he isn’t.
Steve 42
“Top prospects” are different from “good prospects”, they’re going to get some decent prospects for sure. But Papelbon has clubhouse concerns and the Jays seem to have taken those quite seriously this past offseason, plus the guy has to be traded by the deadline because the Phils picking up his option for next year would be silly. Waiting them out only makes sense.
Terie54
Maybe decent but no Daniel Norris. I could see Pentecost or Travis and some low level guys for Papelbon.
Steve 42
Daniel Norris can’t even be close to on the table, and I can’t imagine Travis being available either. Heck, I’d hesitate to include Pentecost, his injury has undoubtedly lowered his value and a #11 pick in a deeper draft last year is a pretty high price to pay for an aging closer that’s lost velocity and has makeup concerns. Package some lower-level guys and see if they bite, or take Pentecost and add a package with him to get Chapman.
Terie54
Chapman will probobaly take more then Pentecost. He could demand a Norris or two pentecosts and some low high upside guys.
NoAZPhilsPhan
I still find it humorous that people bring up velocity. Is dip in velocity occurred between 2012 and 2013. It was during the 2013 season that he learned to adjust his game and become a pitcher… Look at his numbers last year and this year… The only hiccup he had was 2013.
Steve 42
No doubt he’s pitching well regardless, but at his age time isn’t on his side and that affects his trade value
NoAZPhilsPhan
Yep….no body would have traded for Mo at 34…and before anyone laughs…compare the #’s. I know people think I am sating it as a Phillies fan but I’m not. I have followed baseball long enough to know that not every pitcher declines at the same rate. At 34 Mo showed no signs of decline…neither does Pap.
Encarnacion's Parrot
A reliever for an every day player on the MLB roster? I think you need to tone your expectations down a bit. Pentecost I think is a better possibility.
Matt St.
The clubhouse issues are way overblown. Papelbon was credited with taking all the Phillies young relievers under his wing last year. The guy just wants to win and gets outspoken when he doesn’t.
Terie54
Papelbon is older and may not last. He also has a vesting option that probobaly won’t happen therefore making him an impending free agent
rct 2
Papelbon’s contract vests with either 55 games finished this year or 100 in total for this and last year. He likely won’t get to 55 this year, but he’s already got 74 GF for 2014-5. Only needs 26 more. If he remains a closer and doesn’t get hurt, there’s an excellent chance his option vests.
Terie54
I think if the Phillies do keep him due to lack of interest they may hold him back so he doesn’t finish the necessary amount of games.
rct 2
Aren’t they not allowed to do that? He’s performing well, there would be no cause other than to prevent his option from vesting. The Player’s Union would be all over this.
Terie54
Isn’t that what the cubs are doing. sending guys down are keeping them in the minors for arbitration years.
oh Hal
One is allowed by the CBA, the other isn’t.
Diarrhea Milkshake
Paps is gone… The market will decide when, but best guess is soon. Unless he gets hurt, no way he doesn’t reach numbers needed to pickup extension, here or on another team. He is worth 8 mil a year. If the Phillies pickup 5 mil for next year and some this year, it should be worth a very good prospect. Again, gotta give somehting to get something. Paps is not the greatest human being ever, but he can pitch in pressure ridden playoff pushes… which is EXACTLY what teams need down the stretch, not to mention the playoffs. Granted they can choose someone else, but there are only so many who can, So take your pick, give up a prospect or go down the stretch with what you got.
oh Hal
Or trade for someone else.
Terie54
not a very good prospect
Terie54
The phillies wont get a top 5 prospect in any organization other than the extremely weak ones
rct 2
What the Cubs are doing affects minor league players, not MLB players, no? Also, I would think it’s a lot easier to justify keeping a guy in the minors for a few weeks than it is to suddenly pull a career closer (who is performing very well) from his role just as his option is about to vest. I think it’s been discussed here before, but I’m sure the Union would go nuts if this happened to Papelbon.
Mikenmn
I still see Papelbon as a gamble, unless the team has a need for a closer, and the closer would be the potential difference-maker. He wants to finish games–this is his temperament. So, bringing him in for anything but that slot raises the risk in the transaction that he will be unhappy. But bringing him in also raises the probability that his option will vest, so his cost will be that much higher. If the price is multiple prospects, it’s probably too high. But, there will be teams out there who will be tempted.
TheMick
Pretty obvious you wouldn’t trade for Papelbon if you didn’t want him to close.
Mikenmn
I’ve seen suggestions that he be the setup man. I think that’s foolish, under the circumstances.
Mike 77
Huge Braves fan here. The Braves have tried to contend while shipping off all of their cornerstones and offense outside of Freeman, while contending and building for 2017. But I am surprised that no one has brought up that Shelby MIller, 2nd in the NL in ERA and controllable would be a huge trade chip for elite prospect(s). Any chance the Dodgers look that direction?
Terie54
No, I don’t think the Braves will trade, They want to become contenders again and Miller could be their ace.
Mike 77
Agreed, just wonder that at this point his stock is so high getting set to enter arbitration. He had been on innings limit in St. Louis and young arms have not faired the best lately in Atlanta. Just wonder what they could possibly get of entertained the idea. Hate to bank on another Medlen, Minor, or Beachy that cannot handle the heat/innings combo of Atlanta.
jb226 2
I don’t see it. Shelby Miller is who you hope your elite prospects turn into. He’s still controllable long-term, well through the window where the Braves hope to be back to serious contenders. Too much risk, not enough reward.
Rally Weimaraner
If the O’s become sellers they could fetch a nice haul for Wieters ,O’day and Chen. The Red Sox should be sellers but their mix of newly signed veterans, terrible starting pitching and young cost controlled players aren’t likely to be traded.
stl_cards16
If the O’s decided to sell, I’d love to see the Cardinals get Chris Davis. Would be a nice fit.
Curt Green
Wasn’t there a time in the not so far away past that the Dodgers had more starting pitching than they knew what to do with?
Rally Weimaraner
Losing Ryu and McCarthy to the DL sure didn’t help them.
Steven Garrison
also they will have insurance because I have Greinke opting out.