Last night’s game between the Red Sox and Athletics was temporarily stopped in the second inning after a fan sitting near the visitors’ dugout was hit in the face by a piece of a broken bat. The woman is at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center Hospital with injuries that apparently are serious, although there is currently no specific information on her condition, as the Boston Globe notes. “Our thoughts and concern and certainly our prayers go out to the woman who was struck with the bat, her, and her family,” says Red Sox manager John Farrell. “All you can think about is a family coming to a ballgame to hopefully get three hours of enjoyment and unfortunately with how close our stands are to the field of action . . . an accident like this tonight, it’s certainly disturbing.” We at MLBTR wish the fan and her family the very best in the wake of this very scary situation. Here’s more from Boston.
- GM Ben Cherington appreciates the vote of confidence he received from Sox owner John Henry this week, according to an interview on WEEI with Dennis & Callahan. “I’m not worried about job security, just worried about trying to win games, so I appreciate what he said publicly. I think it was important for John Farrell, the clubhouse, and as we talk about good clubhouses and good teams having each others’ backs,” says Cherington. The GM adds that the team has no plans to platoon David Ortiz and Hanley Ramirez at DH, since he doesn’t want to reduce two proven hitters to defined part-time roles.
- The Red Sox’ season has been disappointing so far, but Cherington’s belief that the team can come back and win the AL East might not be off base, WEEI.com’s John Tomase writes. Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts have been productive lately, and so the key to the Boston offense will be the potential re-emergences of Ortiz, Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval. Meanwhile, Wade Miley has had a good run in his last several starts, and Clay Buchholz and newcomer Eduardo Rodriguez provide hope for the pitching staff.
- Another starter, Rick Porcello, has struggled so far, and his peripheral numbers have been unusual this season, as Tomase notes. He’s increased his K/9 from a 5.6 career rate to 7.1, but his ground ball percentage has dipped from 51.6 for his career to 43.1. He’s allowed 11 homers so far and has a 5.01 ERA, although his peripheral numbers suggest he’s been somewhat better than that, with an xFIP of 4.13 and a SIERA of 4.01. Porcello says the $82.5MM extension he signed in the spring hasn’t negatively affected his performance thus far.
Porcello’s issue is he has changed his pitch mix. He has gone away from what made him a descent ground ball pitcher in the past and looked to take the “next step.” For some reason his next step has involved throwing his fastball more than his sinker. When he throws the sinker more he has better results. He needs to stop trying to be a power pitcher and go back to being a sinker/ground ball guy. That’s what the Red Sox signed and that’s what they want.
OK…question is why he hasn’t. It’d be natural to ramp that sinker up…injury? Poor game management? Tired arm? Seriously…any kind of mechanical or health issue even slight will effect his ability.
I think they coached him on the 4-seamer, encouraged him to try for some more strikeouts. That hasn’t been his pattern in the past, and it hasn’t worked for him thus far.
The pitching has been better since Willis took over, but Porcello still hasn’t found his way back.
That’s fair. Still a lot of season left. I won’t be shocked to see him turn it around
It’s hard to draw conclusions without going more in depth into each individual game. It’s possible during his bad games he has tried to throw the sinker early in the game and not had success with it. So he uses it less because it’s not effective that night. So this makes you look at the numbers and say “hey, throw the sinker more!”
In saying so you would expect him to have been hit hard if the sinker wasn’t working. The BA against the sinker is .267 with 0 homeruns. The BA against the four seamer is .262 with 4 homeruns. It seems he may have to reconsider what it means for a pitch not to be working.
So these are stats from the few games he gas struggled?
No these are the stats overall. I’m not going to go watch every single game and count all the pitches. That would be a bit too time consuming.
I don’t blame you, but you’re making broad assumptions because he gas thrown the pitch less when he has struggled. Chances are, there is a reason why he has thrown the sinker less in those games. And it’s probably not that he just felt like being a different pitcher.
I agree. Not sure who told him to change or if he changed on his own, but Porcello should go back to his Detroit ways.
Victoria, I think what needs to happen is Porcello needs to get some run support and some defensive support. He’s a good pitcher and if he goes back to what you think he should do or he pitches from a power perspective he will be successful.
Not if he lets in 7 or 8 runs. His ERA is not a product of bad run support or bad defense. It’s a product of the long ball. Last week he was great. He threw 25 four seamers and 41 sinkers. The week before he let in 6 runs throwing 41 four seamers and 20 sinkers. He’s already had 4 games where he’s thrown 40 fastballs or more this season and he had 2 last season which was his best statistical season to date, where he threw 3 complete game shutouts.
I think what Jim meant Victoria, is that Porcello has only allowed more than 4 runs 4 times in 11starts and is averaging over 6IP out there. Those 3 bad ones (7,6,8ER allowed) make him look really ineffective, then we forget about the other 8 starts.
Jim seems to think the way he pitches has nothing to do with his results, and it an issue of run support. I’m not looking at results in the win column. 4/11 bad starts is not something to really be excited about. He’s pitching poorly when he goes away from what has brought him success in the past. There is direct causality between when he overuses his fastball and when he gives up home runs. If he stops doing that he will be successful in more than 7 out of every 11 games. Bad Defense and run support has not cause his hr/9 to go from his .96 career average to 1.41. It’s bad pitch selection.
You’ll have to clarify to me what you consider a fastball. I’m taking it the 2 seamer is the sinker you’re referring to. There has to be a reason for it. But in total a pitcher will generally throw 50-60% fastballs of some kind. Does Porcello call his own game?
He’s working with Swihart right now who he prefers to throw to. So either he like Swihart because he calls a better game or he likes him because he lets him call his own game.
Also, maybe he’s not the pitcher a demanding fan base like the Red Sox think he should be. I realize he has been better in the past…but he’s been down right bad before pitching in a less media intense Detroit. I had him pegged as a good NL move. I thought he’d have been a good SD or Pittsburgh project…even the Cubs were linked to him. He’s by fair assessment a #3 starter.
Number 3 sounds good. But his results this season have not been consistent with his results last year. If he performed like a 3 it would be fine. But he’s trying to change who he is to become someone worth the money and it’s not working.
That’s on the front office because he probably wasn’t worth the money at that point. Many said that much. He’s a top end 3 that has stretches of 4-5 in him. It seems like Boston was gambling they’d catch lightning in the bottle.
It is possible that last year was a career year for Porcello. At the very least it was his best season in his career so far. It just may be that Boston expecting someone to do better than his “best” might be expecting too much.
Porcello was always known for his 2 seamer…why the drop in usage in Boston?
I think he’s trying to be a power pitcher. It varies wildly from game to game. But he typically has the most success when he relies more on the sinker.
The thought that he’s tried to justify the contract has been tossed around, but at this point it’s something that the coaching staff should have been able to address. Is he out there shaking off the sinker?
Not sure. He’s most likely worked with three different catchers so far this season, who he has never worked with before. It may be his decision and it may be his catcher’s. But either way he has to find the right balance again. He did last week when he worked with Swihart, so it may be he’s a better catcher for him.
Porcello has some mileage on his arm/shoulder. He came up young and has thrown alot. I’m not saying it’s a cause…just a fact to consider
He hasn’t loss any velocity. He’s actually gained velocity on the four seamer since last season. There seems to be a faster is better mentality among Red Sox starters this season that is somewhat disturbing. For some reason the Red Sox went out and acquired a bunch of ground ball pitchers that all harbor some deep desire to be strikeout pitchers.
Well, there ya go…that’s the key to the 2 seamer. He might just be over throwing it. It should sit anywhere from 4-6mph off a 4 seamer…usually there in the 89-92 range.Sometimes a pitcher when he isn’t going good just lose the feel for awhile. Maybe just not enough mph space between that and the 4 seamer.
The two seamer hasn’t gained velocity. It’s right where it should be 90.5. The four seamer is at 91.1. Last year it averaged 90.2. His velocity difference isn’t what shows a difference between the two pitches. The two seamer is a sinker.
I’m aware of the two seamer. I had a very effective one myself. I haven’t seen him extensively this season. Start watching what’s being called for.
He actually might get better as the season wears on and his arm tires a bit. Even dropping a mph off that 2 seamer might prove amazing.
It could also be an organizational philosophy. If one ground ball pitcher did it, I would agree that he might be doing it on his own. When all of them do it, and continue to do it, it may well be because of what the coaches are telling them.
If that’s organizational philosophy then they need to pour drano top down through it, because it’s ludicrous to intentionally sign obvious and elite ground ball pitchers like Porcello and Masterson and then alter them too much.
I agree, but I’m not in the Boston front office. I’m not saying it is, just saying it’s a possible explanation. Just like the Porcello signing, and the decision to move Ramirez to LF, they may think they are the smartest guys in the room.
As far as defensive moves go..general offense stuff as well…there’s probably a majority percentage that things work out. But every once in awhile we’ll see the percentages produce a bomb. I’ve had that discussion elsewhere with M’s fans regarding Cano. He has such a long history of production that percentages say that he rebounds to somewhat normal production…maybe not Yankee power…but there’s always that small percentage for collapse. It’s basically what Pecota does on Baseball Prospectus
Porcello is the only one doing it. Miley isn’t. Buchholz’s gb percentage is actually up this year. Masterson is just flat out bad, and the organizational philosophy is to not let him pitch until he regains at least some of the 5 mph he’s lost off his fastball in the past two seasons. That’s a philosophy I can get behind. It’s tough to see why the Red Sox would talk about having ground ball pitchers, specifically targeting ground ball pitchers to acquire, and then try to turn them into power pitchers.
I was responding to your comment “For some reason the Red Sox went out and acquired a bunch of ground ball pitchers that all harbor some deep desire to be strikeout pitchers.” If Porcello is the only one doing it, that seems to be a strange comment for you to have made. I agree it would be an unwise thing for Boston to do. But if your earlier comment is accurate, than I gave it as a possible explanation.
Could it be a shorter left field wall?
Porcello has give up 11 homeruns this season. 5 have been at Fenway and 6 have been on the road. I don’t think the left field wall has anything to do with it.
If the 5 homeruns at Fenway would not have gone out at Comerica, it well could. I doubt anyone would have a problem if he had only given up 6 HR’s to this point.
Game to game maybe he just doesn’t have it. Orel Hershiser had one of the best 2 seamers ever and he had stretches of ineffectiveness with it. He also had a sore shoulder. The longer it goes on …the longer you’d have to question fatigue
You’re assuming that arm fatigue has something to do with it. I don’t see it. He’s throwing harder than he ever has. He has changed the way he is pitching, and is getting hit harder as a result. His ground ball percentage is down and his strikeout percentage is up. His hr/9 is up .5. He is choosing to throw the wrong pitches at the wrong time and relying too much on a fastball that is not overpowering.
I wasn’t really assuming anything… Just throwing out possibilites
Porcello’s contract is terrible. Paid like an ace and performing like a 4th starter
Never hear it compared with Edwin Jackson’s around hear for some reason, but every day.. Several times in fact we hear someone tell us about how bad Porcello’s is and Porcello at least keeps his team in games and shows promise? How “good” does someone.. Say Jackson do all you Porcello disliker’s?
You’re defending the contract by comparing it to one if the worst contracts to a pitcher in baseball?
I have never compared him with Jackson, obviously his contract was WAY worse. But I don’t think Porcello has ever performed as a 20+ MM$ starter. In fact, I wouldn’t pay more than 12 millon a year for him.
Well, I don’t think it was bound to look like a real bargain immediately anyways, if it ever is supposed to, expecting that would have been hoping for pretty rapid evolution of his game. There’s also the fact that Boston payed up for a guy they wanted to keep around. The reason it looks so bad at the moment is because he’s not pitching like himself, maybe as if he’s trying to earn that extra money, and its really hurting him.
That’s my theory.
You would think by now, some type of conversation would have been had between the pitching coach, Porcello, and his catcher about the way it’s gone so far, because if we can see it, they have to see it clearly.
No, but I don’t think any of the catchers he’s had so far have had an opportunity to develop a rapport with him yet. Last week his pitch choices seemed better, and that may have been the product of having a catcher he wanted (Swihart) or it may have been him taking control of his own game. I think the catcher/pitcher relationship needs time to develop. It’ll get there. Another reason losing Vaz hurts. Having him there for consistency and his defensive/pitch calling/framing skills is an a loss. I don’t think they’ll really understand it until he’s healthy and back behind the plate even in a backup capacity.
And what do you mean by “pitching like himself”? His usual 4.00+ ERA, 9.00+ H/9? He has been a little worse this year than usually but he has been barely average throughout his career. I don’t know if they are expecting him to get better and I don’t get why should they because 1.100+ innings is enough to know what to expect from a pitcher. His ability to induce groundballs and durability can’t justify that amount of money.
By pitching like himself, I mean keeping the ball on the ground and letting the IF help him, using that 2-Seemer to his advantage, because that’s where the strength of his game has consistently been. There has to be a bit of hope that he’s going to evolve his game in giving him that deal, and it’s not unreasonable to think he could a bit, but he’s not going to do that by changing the type of pitcher his is and doing what he has this year, which is try to pitch like a power pitcher and getting smacked around as a result. Personally, I don’t love the deal either, but I don’t think it should look as bad as it does at the moment.
All true. The B’sox paid him hoping he’d turn into a #2…and he has stayed pretty much on par w. his career numbers. At least it was B’sox and not the Pirates or TB, who would be crippled in regard to payroll flexibility for the coming years.
i hope that fan gets well soon..reminds me of that young fan who got hit in the stands and Jim Rice went into the stands to help them.
Wonder if the incident last night with the fan getting impaled by the bat will have a negative effect on the Red Sox…
I wonder if Lawrie will ever be the same.
Honestly, while I didn’t see the whole thing live, I saw the highlights and they showed Lawrie and he didn’t *LOOK* as concerns as many others did. Obviously that doesn’t paint the whole picture.
Yea and based on his comments I don’t think this had much effect on Lawrie at all.
Lawrie’s comments were basically “I hope she’s okay, but she needs to pay better attention”………… Giving us Canadians a bad rep 🙁
Doesn’t Lawrie speak for all of you? 🙂
Not as much as their lack of pitching. More seriously though…players are only human, so I’d suspect that it did have an effect in the moment, but I’m not sure it’d be anything longterm. Hopefully the woman can have a speedy recovery.
Fan wasn’t impaled. Impale means something far different and would be physically impossible in that situation. Awful, yes…absolutely awful. And scary. But not impaled.
Tell that to Brett the Impaler.
Quite a distasteful comment…A woman is fighting for her life and I’m sure Lawrie isn’t doing good either.
Procello is averaging 6.1 innings per start.
He has 6 quality starts on the season, which only 19 pitchers in the AL have more. Only Odorizzi, Buchholz, Archer, and Chen have more in the AL East.
He’s not an Ace, but outside of his 3 bad starts (4/19 BAL 8ER, 5/22 LAA 7ER, 5/27 MIN 6ER) he has a 3.02ERA in the other 8 starts.
Getting a 3.02 ERA in 73% of his starts sure doesn’t sound like the worst contract and worst pitcher in baseball.
1. Averaging 6in per start puts additional burden on the bullpen. That is more acceptable from a #5, but not from a guy slated to make $82m+.
2. There are 35 pitchers with 6 or more QS. More useful is his QS%, which is only 55%.
You wouldn’t know it…. but apparently… Michael Pineda is a #5 starter.
1. 6.1 IP/start.
2. QS% 55%.
Uh-huh…obviously their stats are similar…
ERA: 5.01 v. 3.33
ERC: 4.17 v. 3.22
DIPS: 4.44 v. 2.53
K/BB: 7.07 v. 10.86
Oh wait…they aren’t. Porcello is still barely a #5 and Pineda (who I don’t even love as a pitcher) is solidly a #2 on many staffs and #3 on more elite staffs.
1. Averaging 6in per start puts additional burden on the bullpen. That is more acceptable from a #5, but not from a guy slated to make $82m+.
2. There are 35 pitchers with 6 or more QS. More useful is his QS%, which is only 55%
Agreed, if you take out all of his earned runs, he’s quite the pitcher.
Porcello is exactly the same as he has been with the Tigers for 6+ years…. A #4 pitcher that can eat innings. Nothing more. I thought he would be better, but he hasn’t been. His MO is exactly as you state. Good starts mixed in with epic meltdowns… there are 100+ pitchers that can do that at 30% of the salary of Porcello.
100% agree….this is also what happens when you take a pitcher in a relatively small Detroit media market and put him in Boston
I’d like to see the Red Sox make the following moves.
1. Trade Napoli.
2. Cut Victorino
3. Start giving Hanley reps at 3B/1B and tell him if he wants to stay in Boston he better play defense.
4. Have Brock Holt in the lineup at least 5 out of every 7 games.
5. Trade Margot, Brian Johnson, and Cecchini for Cueto.
Trade Nap to the Rays. My team would gladly take him. Almost any team would take him.
Telling Hanley to play defense when you are moving him around the diamond to positions he never has played regularly doesn’t sound very rational. If you put a SS at SS and he plays poorly, absolutely complain. If you play a SS in LF, or 1B or 3B, and he plays poorly, maybe the complaint should be about the person who is playing him out of position, or about the person who signed him when he couldn’t play SS on your team.
I love Hanley and always regretted the Sox trading him for Beckett but there has been a lot of discussion that the reason he is struggling so much in LF is that he just isn’t trying to learn. When he signed he knew he wasn’t going to be playing SS so don’t act like he didn’t sign up for learning a new position.
Some players can learn easily. Some don’t. Who has been discussing that he isn’t trying to learn? The Coaches, his teammates, the media, the fans? Just because he is willing to try when he signs on, doesn’t mean its going to work out. Even if it is because he isn’t trying, shouldn’t those in the front office who made the decision to sign him have done their homework on his work habits?
David Price has a solid fastball and excellent control, but if the Mets were to sign him to be their closer, because they have no room in the rotation (hypothetically), they would be taking a risk, because he has never closed before. Boston essentially did the same thing with Ramirez.
That’s a lot for a half year rental no way the Sox will do that unless Chapman is included. I’ll try that trade and 1 or 2 more players included for Sonny Gray since Beane usually takes any trade.
I think it would take Betts or Bogartes to get Gray plus the package I listed above if not E-Rod as well.
While I would hate to lose Margot I think thats a fair deal for Cueto considering a lot of teams will be interested and he is a legit ace.
No team is going to trade a lot for a half rental unless he’s for sure going to sign an extension because Cueto is going to be a free agent after this season and he’s going to ask for what Lester got maybe more. Billy Beane is the kind of GM that trades good players for less. Did you not see who he traded Donaldson for? The Blue Jays got a steal for him. I think Margot, Owens and 2 or 3 other prospects gets a deal done for Gray, remember Beane is not Amaro that asks for the moon for every player.
Porcello is EXACTLY what he has been for the past 6+ years.
4-5 great starts… then a terrible start… Repeat.
Giving him a insane contract purely due to his age will not change that.
It’s just a complete shift in expectations though…which really isn’t really on Porcello. I have read comments on pitch selection though, so it’d be interesting to know what that leads to.