There was a “heavy” scouting presence in attendance for Jonathan Papelbon’s most recent appearance, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Both the Blue Jays and Cubs are known to have interest in the closer, but Rosenthal now adds that additional clubs have inquired on the reliever.
Meanwhile, Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com writes that the Jays have had a high-ranking scout trail Papelbon for his past 10 contests. He’s only had one save opportunity in that time, though he has pitched in non-save situations. Per Salisbury, determining how much money would need to head to the Blue Jays has been a “significant” hurdle in talks thus far.
Papelbon has pitched well all season and has continued to put up rather excellent results since experiencing a significant velocity drop beginning in 2013. Rosenthal notes that he averaged 94.1 mph in his most recent outing, but he only threw nine pitches, so it’s not necessarily an indicator that his velocity has returned for good. Indeed, a look at Papelbon’s game-to-game velocity charts (via Fangraphs) reveals that the most recent appearance is something of an outlier.
PITCHf/x data shows that Papelbon has upped the usage of his slider in 2015, which may explain the increase in both his swinging-strike rate and his K/9 rate. At 34 years old, it’s unlikely that Papelbon will see a dramatic resurgence in the velocity department, but he’s still managed to post a pristine 1.01 ERA with 10.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a career-best 51.5 percent ground-ball rate in 26 1/3 innings this year.
The remaining $7.67MM on his contract is an obstacle, to be sure, as is the $13MM option for 2016 that seems likely to vest. But, at roughly $20.5MM over the coming nine-and-a-half months of regular season games (to say nothing of potential postseason innings), Papelbon’s really not the overpriced asset that he’s often portrayed to be. Depending on the extent to which the Phillies are willing to subsidize an acquiring team, Papelbon could ultimately be looked upon as a below-market asset relative to his production.
“Papelbon’s really not the overpriced asset that he’s often portrayed to be.”
Steve has once again made complete sense. (He has been very clear that the Phillies should be asking a lot for Hamels as well).
There is no way Papelbon gets less than a 1/13 contract this offseason if he was a FA. Yes, the AAV might be lower, but then you’d have to commit 2-3 years as well.
Robertson barely got 13MM per and he’s younger, throws harder, and does not have the bad personality rap that Papelbon has. No way he would get 13MM as a FA. He would be Soriano II, except that he would have a harder time finding a minor league contract as few teams would want their prospects subjected to this jerk.
No one cares about the personality rap. Teams still employ AJ Pierzynski year in and year out. Teams continue to give Grant Balfour a chance, and someone is still going to pay 150M+ for Carlos Gomez in 2 years regardless of whatever club house cancer they may be.
Papelbon is a top 10 closer, shows no signs of declining other than velocity, and he possibility is in one of his best season ever.
Just curious – what information do you have on Gómez being a clubhouse cancer? He seems to be well-liked and classy in everything I’ve ever seen or read about him.
The bad personality rap seems primarily geared towards the media and – to a lesser extent – angry fans. All of the guys in the Phillies BP seem to love him, and claim that he’s been instrumental in their MLB education.
Does he get 1 year/$13MM as an FA? No. But he probably gets 3 years/$21MM, which is more guaranteed money.
Also, he’s a heck of a lot better than Soriano was last year. Or, you know, ever.
closing games in Houston soon?
There are times when a metrics-based calculation of value falls short, and this may be one of them. Papelbon is viewed by at least some people as an older sports car–might be able to get it up there on the open road, but unreliable and expensive to maintain.
Since when has Paps been unreliable??? His past 2 seasons were the best since 2009.
He’s one of the best closers in the game. 13/13 in saves / 1.01 ERA / 10.5k/9 2.4BB/9
His team mates love him, he does nothing but help the younger relievers and he’s has a compassion for Winning.. Does it really matter if you compare him to someone “younger” or throws “harder”??? Do they have the same RESULTS? Doubt it.
Phillies will eat $$$$ to get better prospects. Toronto NEEDS him now.. Pretty sure i heard that Toronto’s Bullpen has already blown 17 games this year.
Rangers and Astros can use him as well.
Donnie B. If Papelbon was worth what RA was asking, he’d be gone by now. There’s a disconnect in perception of value–that was my point–that there are clearly people around the league that don’t think he’s worth the trouble. He may be the greatest relief pitcher of all time, modest, self-effacing, a complete boyscout, and a tremendous clubhouse asset, but if that’s so, he’s hiding it from some people.
I really think it has more to do with money owed/how much money the Phils are willing to kick in and prospects involved than Papelbon being “worth the trouble”.
Take a team like Toronto for example. You’re 2 games back in a very winnable division and your team has 8 saves versus 11 blown saves and it’s only mid-June. Papelbon is easily “worth the trouble” if the dollars and prospects are right.
If a player like Papelbon (who’s bad boy image IMO is totally overblown) can destroy a team’s clubhouse, then that team’s problems are a lot bigger than just Jonathan Papelbon.
Those views are unsubstantiated. There is no indication of performance decline, the guy is never injured and he’s as reliable as they come in the RP category.
Here you go for the comparison:
A – 128IP / 2.78 FIP / 2.46 ERA / 1.01 WHIP / 68 saves / 11 Blown Saves / 35 YO
B – 116IP / 3.83 FIP / 2.02 ERA / 0.98 WHIP / 74 saves / 5 Blow Saves / 31 YO
Player A is Papelbon from 2013 to 2014. Did not include this year since it’s still in progress and wanted to keep the comps consistent. Paps will be in his age 35 season next year.
Player B is Huston Street also from 2013 and 2014 (otherwise known as his last 2 seasons before signing his new deal with the Angels). Despite his FIP looking ugly (fly ball pitcher), Street is Papelbon’s equal or better in virtually every category (old school and new school). He was also much younger and has a track record of at least 15 saves every season since his rookie campaign in 2005.
What was the value of Street? How about $8.5M AAV over 2 years. Not that far off from what you’ll pay for ONE year of Papelbon.
I’m not sure that the Phillies are going to land impact talent AND get someone to pay for all or most of the contract. At best I value Paps similarly to Street. That makes him overpaid slightly without ANY talent coming back in a deal.
Street was traded last season for a top 100 position prospect and a high leverage relief prospect. He was owed $10.5m over 1.5 years at the time. Soria was also traded last season for a top 50 prospect and a high leverage relief prospect and he was owed about $10m over 1.5 years.
Papelbon is owed $19.5m over 1.5 years. I would think if the Phillies are willing to chip in $5-6m, they could expect a similar return as the two closers mentioned above. Something like a top 75 prospect and a close to the majors high leverage RP or maybe a lower level SP with upside.
Since when has Paps been unreliable??? His past 2 seasons were the best since 2009.
He’s one of the best closers in the game. 13/13 in saves / 1.01 ERA / 10.5k/9 2.4BB/9
His team mates love him, he does nothing but help the younger relievers and he’s has a compassion for Winning.. Does it really matter if you compare him to someone “younger” or throws “harder”??? Do they have the same RESULTS? Doubt it.
Phillies will eat $$$$ to get better prospects. Toronto NEEDS him now.. Pretty sure i heard that Toronto’s Bullpen has already blown 17 games this year.
Rangers and Astros can use him as well.
Blue Jays make the most sense, but I wouldnt be surprised if Cubs made a bold move for him. I don’t know if anyone else has a pressing need for him