Though Clay Buchholz figures to draw plenty of interest on this year’s trade market, Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald opines that the Red Sox should be steadfast in their refusal to trade him. Lauber notes that Buchholz, earning $12MM in 2015, is slated to earn $13MM and $13.5MM via club options over the next two seasons — bargain rates for a pitcher with his talent, even if it comes with inconsistency and injury risk. Meanwhile, Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal takes a different approach, opining that the Red Sox owe it to themselves to at least entertain offers for Buchholz. MacPherson looks back to last year’s return for 1.5 years of Jeff Samardzija and notes that 2.5 years of Buchholz could bring a similarly strong return. Though the team will need pitching in 2015, MacPherson writes that Buchholz’s value is unlikely to ever be higher, and a team willing to pay for the type of pitching he’s been doing over his past 10 starts (2.33 ERA) may very well make too good of an offer to refuse. MacPherson wonders if old friends Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, now with the Cubs, would be interested in parting with some premium young talent to acquire Buchholz.
A few more notes from the AL East…
- Prior to the Red Sox’ signing of Pablo Sandoval last year, the team inquired with the Athletics about Josh Donaldson but were told he was not available, reports Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald. That would seem to line up, to some extent, with comments from A’s officials early last winter indicating that little consideration would be given to moving Donaldson. (“That would be stupid,” one official told the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser last October.) Donaldson, of course, wound up with the division-rival Blue Jays and is enjoying a monster season.
- With Ivan Nova now healthy and back in the Yankees’ rotation, Adam Warren will shift into the team’s bullpen, the right-hander tells Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. As Feinsand notes, Warren was the likeliest candidate to do so, given his recent success in the bullpen and the fact that he’s already exceeded last year’s innings total while working as a starter.
- Bud Norris has struggled a good deal for the Orioles this season, but there’s no current talk of removing him from Baltimore’s rotation, writes Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. Some have speculated that Norris is pressing in light of his upcoming free agency, and as Connolly writes, Norris indirectly touched on that topic following another rough start Monday. “I don’t know where my future’s gonna take me,” he said. “All know is I can handle what’s in front of me right now and trying to work through this is the No. 1 priority and getting back out there and helping my team win games.” Norris said he’s not worried about the possibility of losing a starting spot to Kevin Gausman, Mike Wright or Tyler Wilson, but Connolly wonders how long the club will stick with the struggling veteran.
- Manager Buck Showalter told reporters, including MLB.com’s Britt Ghiroli, that the Orioles are trying to get Norris on a roll. “That’s what we’re trying to do,” said Showalter. “He has some periods where he’s pitched well, but not as consistent as he did for a long period of time last year, and will again. I try to keep in mind we haven’t even played half the season yet and Bud will do some good things for us.”
Look to the Shark trade if you want, but keep in mind that trade was for two pitcher, Samardzija and Hamel. I don’t think there’s a team in baseball that would trade a top 15 prospect for Buchholz. And even if you found one that would, that just leaves you needing to add an Ace and a number two next season. The Red Sox are really not in a position to trade away pitching that has been descent this year and then have to go out and spend twice as much to reaquire similar talent in the off season.
And more than the fact that it was for two pitchers instead of one…
1. It was to jump the market almost a month before these trades are typically made. Shark was traded July 5, not near the deadline.
2. It was to keep two prominent, readily-available trade chips off the market for their competitors. Everybody knew the Cubs were going to be sellers and everybody knew both of those guys were likely to be moved.
3. It was a small-market team taking a shot.
4. In hindsight, it’s pretty clear that Beane knew he was going to blow things up if the team he put together didn’t at least go deep into the playoffs. He must have believed the window was short.
Can all of these factors line up for Buchholz too? Sure, but there was more to it than just “1.5 years of Samardzija got Addison Russell.”
In no way can I see Clay bringing back that return. If your going to offer your finest meats and cheeses why not target pitchers that consistently put up better results such as a Cueto & Hammels; plus you still have Kazmir and Shark which are ahead of Clay in terms of talent
I have an interesting idea: Use Buchholz as part of a package (along with, let’s say, Devers and Johnson) to land Sonny Gray. You have more dependability at the top of the rotation and you can reallocate the savings toward another top tier free agent SP.
Not really sure Gray’s on the market. Also I can’t see the A’s taking on 13 million in salary in Buchholz. Not gonna lie, would drool at the prospect of landing Gray, but can’t see Buchy fitting in that deal.
Teams don’t trade their ace unless he is in a walk year!
If your Billy you’ll trade your cost controlled ace for young controlled major league talent such as Betts, Swihart plus a few other notable add ins.
Why would the A’s do that deal? It benefits one side heavily, and hurts the other side. Preposterous trade proposal.
If the Phils want one of Swihart/Betts for Hamels, there’s no way that Oakland would trade Gray without getting one of them back
Thank you Billy Beane for giving us Josh Donaldson.
I can see Cashman using Sherve, Wilson, Warren, Betances, and Miller the second half in the second half, and adding Severino also. That could be all they need to win the East.
In the Month of June:
Pineda: 5GS 28.1IP 5.73ERA .310OBA .825OPS
CC: 6GS 34.1IP 5.45ERA .287OBA .863OPS
Maybe Warren should stick in the rotation and skip CC and Pineda a couple of times? They’ve BOTH been terrible, not just CC.
To be fair Tanaka was out and just came back along with Pineda. In Pineda’s case they sat him to conserve inning. The season is a marathon not one month, small samples never tell the story. I would put my money on proven players over time. I would put my money on Kershaw, Bumgartner, Greinke, Scherzer, over young unproven studs like Harvey, Cole, and the like. The Giants won 3 world series in 5 years with three different aces.
Boston people have been saying Cole Hamels isn’t worth a top 15 prospect but Clay Buchholz is? Buchholz has had one BWAR season above 2.0 in the last five years and was -1.9 in 2014. Hamels’ worst year is better than Buchholz’s best year and Buchholz is running almost a win behind Hamels this year.
And if you used fWAR instead of bWAR it’s the other way around. Not really wise to put so much faith in WAR when the Baseball Reference version favors Hamels’ skill set over Buchholz’s and the Fangraphs version favors Buchholz’s over Hamels’.
Lets also not leave out Hamels not very pretty numbers vs any AL Opponent who may have been looking at acquiring him.
Not saying Bucholz is as good as Hamels, but his track record is mostly vs AL opponents at least without a pitcher in the lineup and various other weaknesses.
Hamels’ numbers vs. AL opponents isn’t a good argument. You’re including games from 5-10 years ago. How are they relevant to now? And frankly I don’t get how a bad AL offensive team playing a road game at Citizens Bank Park is a better test than a good NL offensive team is. Hamels has had some good outings and some bad outings against A.L. teams. I don’t see how 3-4 starts a year tell you anything.
How about a game from 5-10 DAYS ago? He looked fabulous at Yankee Stadium.
Did you watch the game? The Yankees had one hard hit ball all game. They got a double when Galvis lost a pop up in the sun. Ruiz should’ve gotten 2 errors and Blanco only got 1, despite misplaying one of the balls hit at him at third.
Now Hamels wasn’t sharp, but he could’ve come out of that game with no runs given up if the Phillies made the plays. He was coming off missing a game due to injury. But if we just look at the boxscore and extrapolate that to every start he’s an awful pitcher. We’ll just exclude most of the 288 other starts he’s had.
fWAR favors Buchholz? His WAR 2011-2014 was 0.8, 0.9, 2.8, and 1.5. Hamels was 4.9, 4.6, 4.5, and 4.2. That doesn’t sound like it favored Buchholz any year.
It is in comparison to his bWAR numbers. It has nothing to do with comparing the two.
That’s exactly what he was doing when he said “Baseball Reference version favors Hamels’ skill set over Buchholz’s and the Fangraphs version favors Buchholz’s over Hamels’.” Hamels numbers have thumped Buchholz until this year.
Hey Double, You are either in 3rd grade or an idiot.. He in no way shape or form said Buchholz is better than Hamels.. He simply stated that the way Baseball Reference calculates WAR favors someone that pitches like Hamels and Fangraphs calculates their WAR in favor of pitchers like Buchholz.. Any one that uses WAR to determine a players value is a fool.. It is a meaningless stat that allows people that do not understand math to pretend that they do..
An AL East article with only 11 comments, way to go word press this is like the commenting version of a shutout.
can we please stop using the Samardzija trade as the benchmark for theoretical deals? We all know it was a bad trade on the part of the Athletics, who gave up way to much for an over-rated pitcher… so why would any other GM be dumb enough to want to repeat Billy Beane’s mistake?
And i say all of that as a Cubs fan.
Because Billy Beane does not value his prospects very much and he still has a few left..
I’m going to get vertigo with Red Sox spin. Don’t trade Buchholz because he’s the next Pedro. Do trade him but insist on a Pedro-like return. He’s a little erratic for a future first ballot pre-retirement Hall of Famer?
They still need to add an SP in the winter even if they don’t trade him away. What return would they seek? Pitching is actually where they need to improve. Most positions are set for 2016 already.
Really wish the Sox could have traded for Donaldson rather than signing Pablo. Jays did good on that trade.
The Blue Jays gave up a 25 year old 3B who consistently gets about 2 WAR and three top prospects. Based on where they were rated at the time that’s like Xander Bogaerts, Eduardo Rodriguez, Matt Barnes, and Manuel Margot. There’s no way the Red Sox would’ve agreed to that if they could just sign Sandoval for free.
Barreto was the only top prospect in the deal. Graveman and Nolin were back end of the rotation pitchers. Solid prospects, not top ones
Now you are saying that the prospects that the Blue Jays gave up are equal to the Red Sox prospects because they were rated #1 #2 etc in their respective systems?? Where do you come up with this nonsense? Bogaerts alone would have been enough for Donaldson..
“Bogaerts alone would be enough for Donaldson.. Where do you come up with this nonsense?”
Your comment works better with the last two sentences flipped.
I love how Boston fans really believe how great their Players and prospects are. They are all over hyped by Boston baseball writers, who are all basically employees of the Red Sox media relations department.
I can understand you think that Bogaerts alone would’ve been enough but that’s not what the Athletics got. They got a young starting 3B who consistently put up good numbers. Before this season Bogaerts had done nothing. Franklin Barreto is a top 100 prospect similar to Margot. Kendall Graveman was a MLB ready SP similar to Rodriguez. Nolin was a good prospect similar to Barnes.
If Bogaerts alone would’ve been enough then Donaldson would’ve been on the Red Sox. Instead it took 4 good players/prospects from the Blue Jays to get him.
Bogaerts for Donaldson? Straight up?
Are you from the RedSoxs crowd that thought Craig, Victorino and a C prospect would get Hamels in the offseason?
No I am from the reality crowd that knows Bogaerts is a very rare commodity.. 5 tool shortstops don’t grow on trees.. Donaldson is a power hitting 3rd baseman who is almost 30.. The fact that he has only begun arbitration makes him a bit more valuable.. Bogaerts alone could net Hamels, Donaldson, or just about any other player in a straight up trade.. And I am not a Sox fan at all.. I grew up on Long Island and have loved the Yankees my entire life.. I just pride myself on common sense.. Put it this way.. Do you think Jeter would have been enough for Caminiti back in 1997?
And anyone that thinks the Phillies are going to give up Hamels for older MLB talent is a fool.. They might have been able to include Craig as an afterthought to offset salary but they are going to have to give up a stud to get him.. I had made a suggestion of Hamels and Brown for Craig, Holt, Rodriguez and JBJ with no money changing hands.. The Phillies get a stud prospect, a young cost controlled super utility type and a former top prospect that needs a change of scenery.. The Sox get Hamels and a former top prospect that needs a change of scenery..
Beane wanted quantity and quality for Donaldson and thats what he got from Toronto, the trade is probably a win win for both teams. Toronto got an impact player now, whereas Oakland got cost controlled major league talent and a stud SS prospect who’s going to run up the prospect listing as he gets closer to being MLB ready