We’re about 45% of the way through the 2015 MLB season, and free agency looms for several of the game’s star players. It’s time for a new installment of the 2016 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings.
As a reminder, these rankings represent earning power in terms of total contract size, assuming everyone reaches the open market after this season and goes to the highest bidder. Here’s MLBTR’s full list of 2015-16 free agents.
1. Justin Upton. Upton hasn’t shown much power in the last month or so, but he still tops our list. He’ll need to pick the pace back up to exceed his career high of 31 home runs. The Padres’ playoff chances don’t look too promising, so Upton could become ineligible for a qualifying offer with a trade next month.
2. David Price. Price has been stellar in his seven starts since we last checked in, and his 2.42 ERA ranks fourth in the American League. He’ll turn 30 in August, and seems poised for a record megadeal. I’m not quite there yet, but I could see Price passing Upton on this list before the season is through.
3. Jason Heyward. With home runs in his last three games, Heyward reminded us that he does still have some pop in his bat. Here’s some cherry-picking: he’s hitting .304/.350/.489 since April 23rd. If this winds up being Heyward’s best offensive year since 2012, he could get $200MM.
4. Johnny Cueto. Cueto remains one of the best pitchers in the National League, but he went 13 days between starts in late May/early June due to a sore elbow. A May 26th MRI showed no structural damage. Cueto returned and looked fine in four starts, but then had his turn skipped earlier this week. The conspiracy theorist in me says the Reds are being a little cagey here, avoiding putting Cueto on the DL so far for the purpose of trade value. Still, it’s not as if suitors wouldn’t be fully aware of the state of Cueto’s elbow. What we know for sure: it’s not nothing. For now, Cueto’s free agent value takes a little dip.
5. Zack Greinke. It’s tough to move Greinke up this high, because his earning power is limited by his age. Greinke turns 32 in October, which may be too old for a six-year deal. Still, he leads all of baseball with a 1.70 ERA. Greinke will be a year older than Jon Lester was, but will have a better resume.
6. Alex Gordon. Gordon’s 2015 season looks a lot like his 2014, but with more walks and HBPs sprinkled in. He may not strike you as a superstar, but Gordon is probably the game’s best left fielder right now. One team might be willing to go well over $100MM for his perceived dependability.
7. Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann’s season, and free agent value, is still kind of up in the air. I’m not sure exactly what he is, though I know he’s not at the level of Price or Cueto. At 29, Zimmermann has youth on his side, but this year the strikeouts have been lacking and he’s allowed ten hits per nine innings. I wouldn’t want to go five or six years at $20MM+ for him. His market could be weird – his age should get him a better deal than James Shields, but he’s not going to be at the status Lester was.
8. Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes has been raking in the last month, and his 2.8 wins above replacement on the season ranks first among all free agent hitters. He’ll be just 30 in October, and could ascend a few more spots up these rankings with a strong second half. Bonus: he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer.
9. Ian Desmond. Desmond’s 2015 season has been a disaster so far. If he finishes the season as a replacement level player, how can a team place a value on him? One-year contracts have not been in vogue lately, even for free agents coming off disappointing seasons, but that might be best for Desmond.
10. Jeff Samardzija. The results haven’t been there for Samardzija, who sports a 4.53 ERA and has allowed 10.5 hits per nine innings. This month alone, he’s allowed 10+ hits in three different starts. But you have to wonder if Chicago’s defense has something to do with his .338 batting average on balls in play, and maybe he’d be a 3.50 ERA workhorse on a different team. A trade seems inevitable, giving Samardzija a chance at a midseason do-over.
Matt Wieters made his season debut on June 5th, having recovered from Tommy John surgery performed a year prior. The 29-year-old has looked good in a brief sample, serving as catcher in 11 of the Orioles’ 19 games. He’s definitely a free agent to monitor in the coming months. Wieters’ teammate and fellow impending free agent Chris Davis has also been playing well of late. On the pitching side, Yovani Gallardo, A.J. Burnett, and Scott Kazmir have been on a roll.
I have Price above Upton, but that’s just me. I understand how rare power is anymore, but Price is dominant when he get’s going and pretty excellent when he’s just coasting.
I can’t believe someone would spend $200M on Jason Heyward. No thanks.
Also, I don’t think Desmond will get a big deal. All he’s had for a while now is his power and that’s gone. He’s a defensive liability and strikes out a ton. He might accept his QO, if he’s even offered one.
J-Up is a solid player but his power numbers are always deceiving in that the majority of his power (and it’s happened even more so the last few seasons) is in April and May. After that he fades. Two years ago he had 14 HR by the end of May and only 13 after that. Last year was fairly similar, I think it was 13 by the end of May and the rest of the year was 16. These following the same course again this year. By May 17 he had 10 long balls and was hitting .293. Since then he has had 3 HR at a .252 clip. It’s his pattern.
In December, I would’ve guessed Heyward would break 200+ (210/9 or something like that) but now i’m revising that way down. I think he’ll get an Ellsbury type deal or something slightly more.
Due to a premium position, I think Desmond will get 50/4
Jason Heyward 3rd?? He is at best 10th on this list.
I’ll take that bet, that Heyward out-earns Samardzija.
I’ll take the bet that the team that signs him will have the #1 most regretful signing on this list.
Heyward isn’t as good as Adam Jones and Jones isn’t even close to being a $200 million player.
Heyward is about as good as Adam Jones and Jones isn’t even close to being a $200 million player. The difference is that Jones has gotten better while Heyward has regressed.
Other than Heyward hasn’t played as long as Jones? When he has? He hasn’t been near as good as Adam Jones.
Cubs should clean up next year with Dee Gordon and David Price.
If he was a free agent this winter, I think Adam Jones would get close to $200MM.
Agreed 100%! Heyward gets more hype than any player I have ever seen.
Well, Heyward will only be 26 years old, so a 9 or 10 year contract would actually make sense in his case.
That being said, I do agree he’s overrated.
that’s a toughy because apparently Heyward has a lot of people fooled but still, even though Samardzija is pitching so poorly now, I have to believe he will get a higher annual deal than Heyward.
I think Heyward’s lack of consistency is going to hurt his chances of 200m unless some team gets stupid. I know we look at season long stats for dudes and consider that to be how it “was” but if a guy has a cold April and May every season, it doesn’t matter if he tears it up the rest of the season if the team went .500 in those first two months and blew a lot of quality starts.
But, he’s young and plays solid defense so whatever, he’ll get at least a decent amount of money per year, I just think I’d like to let him figure out if he can be consistent or not before giving him long terms.
To me its guys like Heyward that kill baseball finances…they push the stars higher salary wise…which is at least somewhat justified…. But they drag bottom tier guys up as well.
Why does it matter if he helps you win more games June through September? So what if he’s cold in April and May and your team is 31-31 on June 5, but he then rips the cover off the ball the rest of the season while your team goes 64-36 and finishes with 95 wins. Sure, maybe you lose a well pitched game while he struggles, but he’ll help you win a poorly pitched game while he’s hot.
Actually, Heyward has been pretty consistent in his career except for those 27 home runs in 2012. So far this year (not counting the game he’s currently playing) he’s hitting .278/.319/.445 and on pace for 32 doubles, 20 HRs, 34 BBs, 104 Ks, and 18 SBs. Except for the abnormally low BB% (which has also pushed his OBP down some), these numbers are all right in line with his career 162 game averages.
It’s just that some people think he’s better than he really is or assume that just because he’s only 25 he’s still destined to “breakout” even though he already has over five years of MLB experience.
Tim, i second that. ill bet he not only out earns him, but id wager he out earns him by a huge margin. id bet that Heyward doubles samardzija in terms of total dollars.
I really hope the O’s can resign Weiters. I’m thinking that a deal somewhere in the realm of Russel Martin’s deal will get it done.
I have to think that if Martin got that heading into his age-32 season, Boras is going to aim significantly higher for what he’ll try to market as a more consistent offensive catcher heading into just his age-30 season.
Wieters hasn’t been nearly as consistent as Martin during any stretch in his career.
Wieters career number;
.257/.320/.425; OPS .745; OPS+ 101
Martin;
.259/.354/.404; OPS .758; OPS+ 104
I would say they are pretty close offensively, obviously Wieters needs to prove he can still catch with his elbow and that he can still hit but I’m guessing if he’s healthy at the end of the year he’ll be getting at least Martin money which I highly doubt the O’s can (or want to) afford.
I’d want Greinke out of anyone on this list. You shouldn’t have to give out a 7 year deal to get him, and you know you’ll be getting one of the leagues most consistent starters at around 24mil/5 years
I think David Price is a Cub next season for 6yrs. @ 160mil. I would also like to see the Cubs go after Alex Gordon and a find closer. If Chicago does these three things along with bringing up Carl Edwards and Kyle Schwarber, they can win the NL Central and maybe get beyond. I think Baez is a HUGE trade piece out there for a team in need of a SS with all the potential in the world IF he can cut down on the strikeouts.
I agree with Price going to the Cubs, but he is going to blow 6/160 way out of the water. He’ll be the same age as Scherzer, with slightly better numbers across the board and left handed. He’s going to get his $30m/season too and without half of it being deferred. I’m thinking it will take 7+ years and $200m+ to sign Price.
Tigers would exceed that.
Agreed regarding 7/200+ because that’s the way the market will shape up, however he will have almost 200+ IP mileage on his arm compared to Scherzer at the big league level so the age comparison isn’t a pure year vs. year comparison. In an IP sense, he’ll be a ‘season older’ than what Scherzer was. If I was a GM, that would give me some cause for concern and would push me to go for a lower term, higher AAV style contract.
I would give 175/5 years for Price, but I think he’ll get 7/230 on the FA market.
The Cubs will still have to go through St. Louis to win the NL Central next year, though. The Cardinals will have just about everyone except Heyward, Lackey, and Garcia coming back along with a healthy Wainwright and Adams.
I just don’t always buy teams being cagey with injuries… Especially to prime players. Other teams have a slew of scouts and information to go by. When Cueto was moved back my suspicion was also that a trade could be in the works to set him up to take a slot in another rotation.
I always come back to the memory of Ubaldo Jimenez being dealt to Cleveland from Colorado during or just prior to a game in San Diego….and Colorado put him on the bump anyway. Everyone knew he’d been traded.
O’s would be better off qualifying Wieters and letting him walk. Take the compensation pick, hand the job to Joseph, and spend that money on pitching.
Yeah I’m guessing the O’s won’t want anything to do with the years and money that Wieters will be getting in FA no matter how good he is for the rest of this season. Just QO him and spend the money elsewhere.
Price has a 2.42 ERA this year, but if you remove that crazy snow filled game where it looked like a Christmas movie and Price’s ERA is 1.77 in the rest of his starts. That is just filthy and will end up with Price being a $200m player.
I have David Price over Justin Upton. Aces are hard to find and Upton is no Mike Trout. Also, I doubt the Padres would dead Justin Upton; acquiring him was definitely a move to WIN in the next two years and trading him would be such a Jeffrey Loria move.
Agreed with Price over Upton. However, upton will get moved IMO if Pads stay 6-7+ games back of a playoff spot coming up in the 3rd/4th week of july.
I may be an optimistic Tigers fan, but I think Price is signed by Detroit, perhaps even before making it to free agency.
Casey Stern on MLB Network radio opined that Dombrowski is too smart to let Price go and Price was comfortable in Detroit.
The fact that the Tigers are allowing him to travel with his dogs, play golf and take “extra curricular trips” to the college world series between starts, may make more of a difference to Price than raw money.
Chris O’Leary (pitching motion expert) loves Price’s chances of pitching deep into his 30s. He seems a much better risk than Scherzer or even Verlander at similar ages.
….And Cespedes is a perfect fit with the Tigers. The huge LF in Comerica coupled with protection from Miggy/VMART/JD allows Cespedes to do his thing as a “supporting actor”.
You just have to live with his lack blazing speed and his free swing style.
Price should be able to get $200 mill in FA but I agree that the Tigers will try to sign him for a “fun team” discount of around $185+ mil/7yrs. It will just depend on how big of a turn around they can make in the 2nd half. Price has stated he wants to play on a winner and if he feels the Tigers won’t be more than a .500-ish team, he will walk.
Regarding Cespedes, the Tigers are at a crossroads regarding team makeup. In 2012-14 their plan was: SP,power offense,defense,bullpen. In 2015 its balanced offense,defense,SP, bullpen. Depending which way they plan to go in 2016 will decide if they pay big $$ for him. If they pay to get Price, my guess is Cespedes walks, those $$ go to Soria. They also get a #2-#3 SP (Samardzija?) and 2 or 3 new bullpen arms. If he does walk, JD Mart better get a new contract.
Upton ahead of Price? Heyward 200mil? Wieters not even in the top 10? Strange list.
Totally agree. Heyward for $200 is just strange it is waaaay out of wack and a total mistake. Can’t understand the hype he gets. The justification for him in the article is a three game sample size. 3 games!
I’m hoping the Red Sox can nab one of Price, Cueto, or Greinke during the next offseason. All three are great, so I wouldn’t care too much which one to have. Personally, my first pick would be Price, but he probably has priced himself out of Boston’s range (heck, all of these guys could be out of Boston’s price range due to their desire to be cheap towards pitching), and I’m not sure if he and Ortiz would get along after last year and the comments made. Zimmermann concerns me now, at least somewhat. He is giving up more hits, and that is a concern to me. Also, the Nationals choosing to sign Scherzer oppose to going the cheaper route by resigning Zimmermann also furthers my point. I’d be worried about Zimmermann needing another Tommy John Surgery in the future and as a result, I wouldn’t give him a ton of money. He could probably end up the bargain of the four though if he ends up being cheaper, but I don’t think his payday will be significantly affected as long as the numbers hold up.
Red Sox are allergic to dollars spent after age 30. that is why they gave more money to 26 year old Porcello (with a near 4 career ERA) than the original offer to Lester.
It would be weird to pass on homegrown Lester who was perfectly willing to give them a hometown discount, then sign Price for 80% more cost just a year later.
I can see their philosophy changing somewhat after the failure this year. As well, Lester has pitched quite poorly for the Cubs, which could mean that the Red Sox know something that others don’t, or they strongly felt that he wasn’t worth it. In terms of numbers, I wouldn’t call him a 150MM pitcher, same as Porcello isn’t a 80MM pitcher (though it is fine as it is a short-term, high AAV deal). The season he had last year strongly effected how much he got paid, otherwise he probably wouldn’t have got more than 125MM. Regardless, I’m not expecting them to sign any of the big four available as like you said, they don’t spend big on older pitchers. Though they aren’t willing to part with any prospects to acquire an ace either, which is kinda hypocritical. You really can’t get an ace without doing one or the other, unless they develop one, which is rather unlikely.
Please someone tell me what Jason Heyward has EVER done to warrant a $200 million dollar deal?! I watched him in ATL for years and he is an average hitter, great defender who’s claim to fame is a home run in his first big league at bat and perhaps looking very good in a uniform. He is at best, at BEST, a .260, 15 HR, 90 RBI player. He gets more hype than I have every seen from any other player! You take Heyward to $200 and he will cripple your franchise.
He’s 26. That’s what it comes down to. Players don’t reach free agency at this age. Heyward has a legitimate chance at signing a 10-year contract, possibly longer, due to age. He’s an elite defender with good OBP skills and 20-plus homer upside. You can say he’s not worth it, but players are rarely, if ever, worth their free agent price, especially on these types of long-term deals.
Saying he’s “at best” a 15-home run hitter doesn’t make much sense when he hit 27 in 2012 and has nine this season with 90-some games to go. Heyward’s likely just entering his physical prime, and hitting free agency heading into an age-26 season is more or less unheard of in today’s game.
I honestly don’t see how Heyward is going to receive a $200 MM contract. I just don’t, especially with Justin Upton also on the market. I can definitely see Heyward eclipsing the $125 MM mark for the reasons you mentioned, but $200 MM is just ludicrous.
I just disagree totally. Watched him in ATL for years and he has always been a physical beast. A beast. But we’ve always, always been sold on the next Willie McCovy and he simply is not that player. Sure he hit 27 in 2012 but look at the sample size of his career and he averages around 15 HR. Hope he has a great career b/c he seems to be a great teammate and person but worth $200, he is not.
Those averages are still in his pre-peak years. Regardless, the question isn’t whether or not he’ll deliver $200MM of value on his next contract. It’s whether or not he’ll sign for $200MM. Those are very different things, and as Tim said, it’ll take his best offensive season since 2012. He’ll need to maintain something close to the pace he’s set since late April.
The umbrage that some fans take to free agent projections/prices is always weird to me. I remember people vehemently protesting the notion of Max Scherzer getting $180MM+ when it was suggested last year, and the same for Ellsbury getting $150MM+ the year before.
You’re approaching your disagreement from a (pretty unreasonable) comp to Willie McCovey that the media apparently made prior to/early in Heyward’s career. He doesn’t need to be Willie McCovey to earn $200MM, nor should he be considered a disappointment if he doesn’t average 35 homers per year as peak McCovey did. Jason Heyward is Jason Heyward. He’s really good at baseball, and he’s hitting free agency five whole years sooner than most guys do.
What if Heyward’s peak years were 2010 and 2012?
I guess it comes down to how he plays the rest of this year. Even with solid numbers the rest of this year, I still don’t see anything remotely near $200 million.
I was referring to physical peak/prime when I made that comment, sorry for the confusion.
If he keeps hitting at the pace Tim mentioned since April, I think he can absolutely get there just based on length of contract alone. The five- and six-year terms we’re accustomed to could very well go out the window with Heyward given his incredibly young age.
He could theoretically (and this won’t happen, just making a point) sign a five-year deal and end that contract at the same age that most players are hitting free agency for the first time before signing $100MM deals. Age is the biggest factor in his free agency.
Do you see Heyward signing for a ‘smaller’ AAV on a long term deal with an opt-out clause?
He’s still young and could easily get 10 years, yes, but with all his MLB experience he’s likely already hit his peak. I could see his combination of somewhat above-average offense and elite defense getting him something in the range of $150-175M, but unless some team really buys into the idea that his defense actually saves as many runs as his inflated career WAR implies, then I don’t see him getting $20M a year.
OK I guess I can see what you are saying. If the question is will he get it then perhaps you are right and he will. If the question is should he get it, then I would disagree.
Cueto and Greinke are both way above Heyward.