In his latest piece at FOX Sports, Ken Rosenthal opines that the Reds and Brewers represent two of the teams that most desperately need to take a step back and sell some veteran pieces in order to improve for the future. However, Rosenthal notes that Brewers owner Mark Attanasio and Reds owner Bob Castellini are both exceptionally committed to winning, and either one could see enough misleading signs on the current roster to be persuaded into pushing for contention this season. The Brewers are 5-4 under Craig Counsell and have Jonathan Lucroy nearing a return from the DL, while the Reds have Michael Lorenzen now in the rotation, with Raisel Iglesias presenting a potential option to help a woeful bullpen. Despite that, Rosenthal feels the two NL Central clubs need to focus on the future — a sentiment with which I agree, as the other three teams within the division appear poised for long-term success, while the Brewers and Reds lack deep farm systems.
Here’s more from the NL Central…
- Reds catcher Devin Mesoraco’s injury situation continues to take some twists and turns, but it seems he is on the mend somewhat. As C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports, Mesoraco says he is increasingly optimistic that he will be able to stave off hip surgery, which once seemed likely. Now, the club is working him out in the outfield as it looks for a way to get his bat in the lineup while he tries to prepare again for catching duties.
- The Cardinals have placed center fielder Jon Jay on the disabled list due to tendinitis in his left wrist. As Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch noted last night, the injury to Jay had the Cards pondering a roster move, but Randal Grichuk is recovering from a back injury, and Stephen Piscotty is not on the 40-man roster. Xavier Scruggs has been recalled from Triple-A, but if a long-term need arises, I don’t imagine that he’d be the preferred option. If there’s a silver lining for St. Louis, it’s that Peter Bourjos has hit quite well this season and presents an elite defensive option while Jay is on the shelf.
- Jean Segura is the latest member of the Brewers to land on the disabled list, as the team announced that he will be sidelined with a broken pinkie finger in his right (throwing) hand. Prospect Luis Sardinas, acquired from the Rangers in the Yovani Gallardo trade, has been recalled to fill Segura’s spot, but the loss of Segura is another blow to a Brewers club that, as mentioned above, seems destined to end up trading veteran pieces this summer.
- Of particular note on the Segura injury front is that Segura himself has seen his name floated, at least in speculative fashion, as a potential trade chip for the Brewers. While the missed time will do little to enhance his trade value, it does give Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin the opportunity to see what he has in Sardinas. The 21-year-old switch-hitter was ranked as a Top 100 prospect with the Rangers prior to both the 2013 and 2014 seasons (per Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus), and he hit a solid .288/.324/.386 in 141 Triple-A plate appearances this season. If Sardinas looks capable of assuming a larger role with the Brewers, the concept of trading Segura would become less of a stretch. Segura is, after all, slated to become arbitration-eligible for the first time this offseason and would figure to return some nice talent, as he is controllable through 2018 and has looked better at the plate in 2015 than he did in 2014. (He is still, admittedly, quite a ways from his 2013 peak, however.)
I don’t think there’s any hurry for the Reds. They are at .500 and have 2.5 months to decide if they should sell.
I agree. Cardinals are great, yes, but injury is an unpredictable variable, and even the best team can decline because of them. Brewers aren’t in contention, the Cubs’ young players still have to find maturity and consistency, and the Pirates will struggle if Andrew McCutchen and Josh Harrison don’t improve.
If Votto, Phillips, and Frazier stay healthy and produce, along with Leake and Cueto anchoring the rotation and Chapman closing the games, they could easily be at least a wild card team. It’s way too early to say they can’t do well this season.
Who can the Reds really sell other than Leake and Cueto? Marlon Byrd isn’t gonna bring you anymore than what they gave for him at this point. Phillips and Votto are held down by contracts.
I still hate the idea of giving up top prospects for relievers. Look at the Astros, they build a good bullpen by signing Chad Qualls, Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek. Acquiring Chapman isn’t gonna do much more for your team than going and getting KRod from the Brewers or Clippard from the A’s, and they aren’t gonna cost anything near what Chapman would cost.
The difference between Chapman and K-Rod or Clippard is markedly larger than you’re giving it credit for, in my mind. Especially in terms of postseason play, when you can ramp up your best reliever’s workload due to built-in travel days. When the Red Sox won the 2013 World Series, they went from Koji Uehara throwing about 5% of his team’s regular season innings to 10% in the postseason (Dave Cameron wrote an excellent examination of this at Fangraphs last year.)
He’s also a ~3-win piece that can be controlled in 2016 for somewhere around $11MM which, while pricey for a reliever, is still plenty reasonable in relation to the value he provides.
You can say that the Astros built a bullpen by signing cheap-ish arms, but we see that same method fail each year with various teams as well.
The big splash would be to trade Frazier.
I think if you’re the Reds, you just wait to see how it pans out until closer to the deadline.. Then you deal Cueto…possibly Chapman. Chapman would have value to a contender. Sure, realistically he’s not going to add much more than those guys…but there’s not many who wouldn’t rather roll Chapman out there.
I suppose it’d be solid to rebuild with some advanced minors players and let the scouting dept do the rest.
Byrd has been on fire of late and over the last month is posting a .239/.327/.522 batting line. If they sell sooner rather than later I’d imagine he’d have his fair share of interest.
If I am the Reds, I would do nothing until I had to!
Rosenthal makes a pretty poor argument. The list of young talent on the Cards is uninspiring, they have a lot of old guys, and not a lot on the way. Old Jon Jay hits the DL and they’re stuck. The Pirates young talent includes McCutchen in his late 20s and the pitching that he touts in the minors is as much projection as performance and they have injury problems. I wonder if someone asked Rosenthal who was next in line for those rotations whether he’d have a clue. I doubt he knows one answer is Clayton Richard or that Marco Gonzalez is getting crushed in AAA.
Melvin has said repeatedly over the years that in reality all players are available for trade. There’s a good argument that Lucroy was the MVP last season. He’s a complete player, including intangibles at an incredibly scarce position. Let’s hear Rosenthal’s proposal. I’d guess it’d be similar to Cameron who thought that the Brewers should basically give Segura to the Padres for whatever reason.
Sure, trade Gomez and Lucroy if someone makes the right offer. If not, they can keep them and trade them later.
Clayton Richard? When did he last pitch in the majors? 2012?
Well Jon Jay is only 30, Carpenter is 29, Wong 24, Carlos Martinez 23, Lynn 28, Wacha 23, Borjous who has had a great start to the season is 28, Heyward is hitting over .300 in his last 10 games. Marco is getting crushed at triple A? He’s only had 5 starts and is coming off an injury. Plus players like Piscotty, Reyes, Kaminsky coming up, i don’t know what you mean by they don’t have inspiring young talent.
Doesn’t matter if it is Segura or Sardinas, they are just keeping the position warm for Orlando Arcia. Sardinas will be showcased to get traded as well.