Reds starter Homer Bailey will undergo Tommy John surgery, the club announced. Cincinnati expects him to return during the 2016 season, per the announcement.
Bailey had missed the tail end of last year after needing surgery to repair a torn flexor mass tendon in his right arm. The 2014 campaign was something of a disappointment even before that point. While Bailey was effective enough, he failed to build off of a strong 2013 and seemed to be settling in more as a sturdy option than a top-of-the-rotation arm.
Now, Bailey’s arm troubles have clouded even that downgraded status. He was able to make it back early this season, but was throwing his average fastball at about 3 mph less than he had been over the last two seasons. With only three strikeouts in 11 1/3 frames, things were already not looking up when Bailey hit the DL.
While Tommy John surgery is obviously far from a death knell to a player’s career, neither is it a minor event. In Bailey’s case, it is particularly concerning given that he already underwent one surgery and has already shown a velocity decline. Then there’s the fact that he will not be back until next summer at the earliest, meaning that Cincinnati will not see any on-field production for its investment during that time.
The real issue for the Reds, of course, relates to Bailey’s contract. While the deal’s first year basically ratified an already-inevitable arbitration salary, the rest represented new money that kept the righty from testing free agency. Cincinnati still owes Bailey $86MM over 2016 through 2019, which includes the buyout of a mutual option for 2020, and it is increasingly unclear whether the club will get anything close to the expected value for that sum.
Twinsfan79
I really wonder when teams will stop giving high dollar/long term deals to any starting pitcher. Or if a”John lackey” clause will become the norm.
David Coonce
You’re seeing this with the Red Sox, who locked up Porcello on just a 4-year deal, although the AAV was high. I think that will be the norm going forward – less years, higher average values.
christopher 2
I agree……lightens the risk a little bit….no other business would risk $100 million+ on something(a pitcher) that is almost certain to break down quickly……
Draven Moss
The problem is that there will always be a team willing to exclude that type of clause, or the pitcher will be too old near the end of his deal where that league minimum figure would just cause them to decide to retire. I do agree with the first sentence though. I’d say we will see shorter contracts given to starting pitchers. Probably in the five year, or six year length, with the elite guys making 30MM+ a year. We saw the struggle Boras had to get Scherzer’s deal, and he is very fortunate to have got it. I’d say it’ll be harder for pitchers to get those types of deals here on out.
christopher 2
as soon as a really good free agent pitcher is signed…….within 1-2 years he usually is already losing 3-4 mph off his fastball, a huge difference…..
Sigurd
Really wish we had a John Lackey clause in there. This contract has become a nightmare before the ink was even dry.
christopher 2
I was really shocked to see the Reds go full on “Yankees” with the Votto and Bailey contracts……..
These sort of contracts rarely work…….and usually set MLB organizations back several years while teams wait for the contracts to expire…..
ShaneRedsFan
Just gets better and better for the Reds. Losing Leake and Cueto is going to absolutely destroy our rotation even with the promising arms we have coming through the system.
Sigurd
Yep. We are going to have to get really creative this off season to have any semblance of a reasonable starting 5.
mauryfeldman
So, what about Lorenzen? Is he any good? His first start was mediocre but not terrible. Is he expected to stick in their rotation? Are they counting on him?
Sigurd
Hes projected as a solid 2/3 in the rotation. He was definitely rushed by being promoted though; I don’t believe he has ever been above AA.
Ray Ray
Mediocre? He gave up 3 runs in his big league debut. That’s pretty good in my book. Were you expecting a perfect game from him right out of the gate?
mauryfeldman
Yes, mediocre. 3 ER in 5 IP for a 5.40 ERA. That’s not terrible or very good.
Ray Ray
For your first big league start, 3 runs is pretty good. He couldn’t control how long the manager was going to leave him in the game. I’m also still waiting to hear what your expectations would be for anyone’s first MLB start.
christopher 2
I think you are both right actually……a rookie giving up only 3 runs in his first big league start is pretty nice all things considered…..
But, the fact that the manager only felt comfortable allowing him to pitch 5 innings is a drawback……and as mentioned, the numbers for 5 innings and 3 runs are not great….
For me, the numbers never quite tell the whole story, especially for young players/pitchers……….I use the eye test…..
The obvious tiebreaker would be if you will would be how did his stuff look?
Was his fastbal command and velocity good? was his breaking stuff biting, or was it hanging?
I have seen plenty of young pitchers give up 3-5 runs in their first several outings, make adjustments and improve, and go on to become really good pitchers……..
And I have also seen plenty go the opposite direction…..
I
mauryfeldman
This was more like the kind of information I was looking for.
mauryfeldman
It looks like I’m dealing with a clown over here. At least I did receive helpful advice from Sigurd and christopher; I picked him up and benefited in his second start.
Ray Ray
I wasn’t trying to give you advice, I was questioning your thoughts. So in that regard, yes they did give you better advice than I did. To be honest, if I knew you were more worried about your fantasy team than the actual player, I wouldn’t have commented at all. I don’t live in fantasy world, I live in the real world.
mauryfeldman
In no circumstance is a 5.40 ERA good. In a pitcher’s first start it is not terrible. Therefore, it is mediocre. This is what we call mediocre.
Montreal Royals
Stop babying pitchers and limiting them to pitch counts. I noticed with Yu Darvish (55 CG/7 Yrs) and Mashiro Tanaka (53 CG/7 Yrs) they completed games overseas, then came here to the US and both have been injured due to pitch counts. Allow pitchers to develop arm strength. With Darvish out with TJ surgery this year.
Koby2
Or it could be the stress on their arms from those complete games overseas contributed to their arm issues now.
Ray Ray
That’s akin to placing blame on the total amount of miles driven when looking into the causes of a car accident. Just because a guy drove cross country accident-free doesn’t necessarily mean he is statistically due for an accident now. That’s a bit of a strong (and probably incorrect) assumption. You have to take evidence from the past here as well. Prior to 1994 in the US, there were very few TJ surgeries and there were a lot more complete games thrown. I’m not saying Montreal is 100% correct, but he is probably not 100% wrong either.
BananaMonster
You would contribute a cars belt breaking on the previous 200,000 miles and not so much the last 5 miles though. They were exposed to US Pitch counts for such a short time that’s hardly a fair judgment.
Calling a torn UCL a car accident is saying that all other pitches had zero effect and that the pitcher in some way made a mistake and only that one pitch caused the surgery. Obviously that isn’t true so that’s not a great comparison.
Ray Ray
That might not be a perfect comparison, but the assumption that the MLB way is right and the Far East way is wrong is also far from great. Ask yourself this, how many pitchers that go the other way (MLB to Japan or Korea) have TJ surgery? Sometimes people have a very myopic viewpoint which says their way is never wrong. I have a feeling that might be the case here, but I can already see that I am not going to convince you, so I’ll just say have a nice day.
BananaMonster
I never said that the US way was superior. And I’m also confused why you assume my view is so restricted? I have no real opinion on which way is better, but I do know your argument was poorly presented.
Ray Ray
Oh well, life goes on.
Montreal Royals
I see your point, but ever since pitch counts have become the big thing over the last 25 years. I notice that more and more arms are undergoing TJ surgery. This isn’t just overseas. Look at Jose Fernandez, Homer Bailey, Zach Wheeler and Matt Harvey to name a few. Guys just don’t finish what they start. I believe that arm strength is not built up when guys throw infrequently. Just my opinion.
Ray Ray
I think it is a combination of throwing too infrequently AND too frequently. Pitchers used to pitch from March until October and then rest. They could pitch 9 innings or more every 4 days, but they also didn’t pitch for 4 months out of the season. They also didn’t try to overthrow on every single pitch. These guys today treat every pitch as if it the bases loaded in the World Series. Throwing 95+ is cool and all, but pitching 87 on the corners is just as effective.
Montreal Royals
I agree with you. For every Nolan Ryan, Steve Carlton, Gaylord Perry and Greg Maddux you get, there are all those other arms that get shredded we don’t talk about. I just notice the TJ surgeries are happening more frequently over the last several years than ever. Owners have so much $$$ invested in their arms that my opinion is that they are “Overly”-Cautious about using them.
0vercast
“Injured due to pitch counts.”
What’s your reasoning in thinking pitchers are getting hurt from throwing fewer pitches per start?
Correlation doesn’t equal causation. Both of those guys you mentioned had a lot of miles on their arms prior to ever toeing the rubber in MLB.
Montreal Royals
I did not say “Injured due to pitch counts”. Ever since pitch counts have become the norm over the last 25 years, I have noticed more pitchers having TJ surgery. It has also been stated by other retired pitchers too that the more infrequently they throw and monitored (pitch counts) has not helped enhance their arm strength. Explain the Nolan Ryan’s and Greg Maddux’s who threw 35 starts year in and year out. You don’t get that anymore.
0vercast
“Injured due to pitch counts” was literally cut-and-pasted from your post. It’s still there.
Over the last 25 years, the number of surgeons routinely performing TJ surgeries have increased. It’s good business, especially at the rates they likely charge. That should, at least in part, explain the increase. Think of the players now that get surgery the week a UCL defect is detected, rather that pitch through it, like they used to, at the expense of career longevity.
In regards to the Nolan Ryan and Greg Maddux situations, some athletes are naturally more durable than others. You picked two exceptionally durable athletes. Legends. They’re outliers. Coincidence also plays a part. Always does.
There’s zero evidence, empirical evidence, that pitch counts leads to Tommy John surgery. Correlation. Every argument is flawed in some way. It sure seems like something is fishy though, I’ll give you that.
monroe_says
The Reds needed to start their rebuild months ago. Sadly, Jocketty is probably not the man to do it.
jduy
you give big contracts then theyget hurt
christopher 2
Homer Bailey was a good looking #3 pitcher…..The Reds giving him #1 money was a HUGE mistake…..
christopher 2
The Votto and the Bailey contracts are why Cincy’s future looks a little bleak……..unless a guy is an ALL AROUND great POSITION player(Trout, MCutcheon, Adam Jones), why give a one-trick pony that kind of dough?
slasher016 2
Votto is already worth 1.4 WAR this season, what exactly do you want him to do? He is #1 of all active players in OBP in his career, #6 in slugging. #3 in OPS. He’s an elite hitter who is having a good year, plus he’s won a gold glove. Do you want him to be #1 overall for active player in every category?
Lance
For every guy like Ryan, Maddux, Spahn or Clemens….I can counter with names like Koufax, Drysdale, Jim Maloney, Andy Messersmith, Dean Chance, Larry Dierker, Catfish Hunter, Hal Newhouser, Gary Nolan and Fernando Valenzuela whose best years basically were finished by the age of 30. Several are in the hall of fame but all had some great success in their 20’s and were “ironman” pitchers.