As we approach the draft, one group of players to watch is college seniors, who have very little leverage to negotiate bonuses, as Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper writes. Seniors selected in the fourth round typically get only $50K-$100K, while seniors picked in the tenth round get as little as $1K. Selections of seniors in the first ten rounds, which are now governed by rules regarding draft spending allotments, can be used to free up money for hard-to-sign players in other rounds.
That only works if those seniors sign, of course — if a team drafts a senior in the first ten rounds and he doesn’t sign, they lose the ability to spend the entire amount associated with his draft position. So, as Cooper notes, a senior’s willingness to sign is even more crucial than his actual talent. “I need to be able to tell the scouting director, ’I don’t have this guy as a top-10 round talent, but if we need a budget saver, I promise you I will sign him and he will not screw us over,'” as one scout explains. As Cooper notes, the system could give a senior a fair amount of power, in that a senior who expressed willingness to sign cheaply before the draft but changed his mind after being drafted could torpedo a team’s ability to sign other players. But a team could then ruin the player’s career by refusing to let him play in the minors. Here’s more on the draft.
- In 2003, the Royals took full advantage of senior picks’ lack of leverage, Cooper writes. Faced with an inadequate draft budget, the Royals took several seniors in the early rounds and paid them bonuses of just $1K. Several of them ultimately got to the big leagues, including Mike Aviles, Ryan Braun (the reliever, not the Brewers slugger) and Irving Falu. They also got lefty Dusty Hughes for $3.5K. “We called them all in advance. We told them, if you take this offer, we’ll draft you. They were all willing to do it. They wanted to play,” says then-scouting director Deric Ladnier.
- More than 20 teams passed on Mike Trout in the 2009 MLB Draft before the Angels took him. The Red Sox weren’t one of those teams, but if he had still been on the board when they had picked at No. 28, they probably would still have selected Puerto Rican outfielder Reymond Fuentes, WEEI’s Rob Bradford explains in a piece that provides an unusually close look into a drafting team’s thought process. Trout had his partisans within the Red Sox organization, and Northeast region scout Ray Fagnant says he was one of them. Then-assistant GM Ben Cherington took Trout seriously, too. But the Red Sox already had a somewhat similar outfield prospect in Ryan Westmoreland who some in the organization liked better, and they saw the speedy Fuentes as a potentially disruptive player in the mold of Jacoby Ellsbury. Westmoreland hit brilliantly in the minors in 2009, but a cavernous malformation in his brain prematurely ended his career. The Red Sox sent Fuentes to the Padres in the first Adrian Gonzalez deal, and he’s played only briefly in the Majors.
gammaraze
Such a lack of research… Trout may have been the 25th pick in the 2009 draft, but only 22 teams had picks before he was selected, including the Angels. Two teams “passed” on him twice.
tesseract
Not even the Angels thought he was the best prospect on their board
Sir Didihiro Nakamura
Is this your reasoning based on the fact he was taken 25th and not 24th? Because that’s irrelevant.
gammaraze
Are you saying that if the Angels had pick 26 instead of 25 they would have drafted Trout first? Typically, even if you have back to back picks, you pick the one you value most first. This isn’t a fantasy league, there are thousands of man-hours going into these decisions.
stl_cards16
Actually there is reasons for selecting Trout after Grichuk. The Angels were trying to force Trout’s asking price down. Trout was the one they really wanted.
Dock_Elvis
That is fact. I’ve heard this from people in the game. This whole idea that Trout was a surprise is a stretch. It was his bonus demand, coupled a little with his location.
tesseract
Trout was a first rounder. He is not a surprise. But the fact that 20 teams passed on him, it’s an interesting fact
Dock_Elvis
Sure, its interesting for a few reasons. Teams didn’t realize what they were getting..its hindsight. But, honestly, he’s only gotten better…
tesseract
I really doubt this. Sounds like a conspiracy theory. Trout signed for $1.2M, it’s not like getting picked 24th would have increased his bonus to $2M
Dock_Elvis
Trout had flaunted a 6m figure before the draft…he was set not to sign. There’s narrative to all of this.
stl_cards16
Well it happens all the time in baseball. Correa over Buxton was a move to save pool money for later picks. It worked out great for the Astros but if it were any other sports draft, Buxton would have been taken #1 overall.
tesseract
Regardless. The Angels looked smarter than the other 20 teams that passed on him
Dock_Elvis
Sure, if you’re basing this on incomplete information. The Angels weren’t genies…they just got lucky and had him fall into their lap.
tesseract
It’s a little irrelevant but think about it. Tell me a couple good reasons they would pick Grichuk 24th and Trout 25th? Obviously they thought Grichuk was better and they had him higher on their board
Sir Didihiro Nakamura
it’s two picks in a row, it doesn’t matter
tesseract
It doesn’t but Angels thought Grichuk > Trout. Had they only had 1 pick they would have gone with Grichuk
Dock_Elvis
I don’t believe Thats true…fact is they had two picks and tried to use the draft positions for negotiating leverage. Trout had some good advisors, including his father who had extensive experience in professional baseball. Trout knew his value.
Dock_Elvis
When I saw Trout.. My bottom line comp was Andy Van Slyke, and when you think about that…it’s actually solid bottom line praise. I saw a player who could play CF swipe bags, decent avg, decent power. I mean he was 5 tool…but when he got into better pro ball pitching those 5 tools all came out. That doesn’t always happen. That’s when the Mantle comps came into play so frequently. There’s no way the Yankees would have let Trout escape the first round in hindsight. He was the next legacy..the Jeter.
tesseract
And….. are you ready for it?…………… Grichuk got a higher signing bonus than Trout
Dock_Elvis
Grichuk was taken to suppress Trout’s bonus…that’s a fact I’ve heard directly
tesseract
This might be true. But I doubt it. It’s not like his bonus was going to go up by $500K. Ultimately Grichuk signed for more money
Dock_Elvis
Sure he signed for more money…Trout was pushed down the board.
Dock_Elvis
I mean, the Angels just did whatever small maneuvering they could. Trout had flaunted some serious signing bonus figures to the scouting community. But he wasn’t going to escape the first round.
Dock_Elvis
If Trout would have been from Florida or California he would have likely been the #1 overall. Its not really a scouting mistake by the previous teams, but a cost/risk assessment. It took all of about one month to realize they had missed
tesseract
I agree. The northeast is a terrible area to be a top player
Dock_Elvis
I believe there was a little bit of “who do you think you are making this demand?”
charliewilmoth
I’m not sure that’s a lack of research so much as it’s a technicality, but I do appreciate the correction.
Sky14
Nice to see an article that doesn’t use the benefit of hindsight to make claims that “If team X had a chance, we most certainly would have selected annual MVP/Cy Young candidate player X, instead of the bust we selected because our scouts loved him”. Those article always make me roll my eyes, even if the claims may have been true, because it is impossible to verify.
David Coonce
All drafts are a hindsight case, of course. Trout wasn’t highly scouted because he didn’t play a lot in the northeast. There’s a reason players from the South or the West Coast frequently are drafted highly. Trout just didn’t have enough reps because of where he played.
tesseract
Considering he also faced lesser competition
Dock_Elvis
A very good comparable draft day comp to Trout would be Bubba Starling. Trout just wasn’t a given, he had good people around him, and a second sport. In some ways it was pretty smooth and worked out that the bonus rumors pushed him down the board to a team with deeper pockets when he did get to the majors. Trout essentially took a chance on his own talent.
Dock_Elvis
Just wait until you see Minnesota get Buxton and Sano in the lineup…those are two guys who top out with Eric Davis bat Torri Hunter glove and Frank Thomas/David Ortiz top ends. Sano hits the ball extremely hard! Buxton has light tower power
Dock_Elvis
Angels also had some inside information. Much like in Matt Holiday being drafted in Colorado. The agent that signed Trout played minor league ball with his Dad, Jeff. The Angels and Yankees both had Trout #2 on their draft boards…Yankees would have taken him a few picks later. Mariners about took him #2 or #3, can’t remember.. But took Dustin Ackley instead.. Yeah..that looks bad now. Part of the problem as well is that there had been a few busts come out of New Jersey.
Dock_Elvis
I had this discussion with a high level Rockies scouting exec while watching Trout play in the minor leagues. The Rockies are particularly keen at scouting the upper Midwest and NE. He said there was questions over Trout’s bonus. The Angels had this as well, and was the reason they picked Randal Grichuk one pick previous. There was a little question over being in a cold weather environment… But according the Rockies that wasn’t the primary concern. It was stated to me that the draft is a crap shoot, even the Angels didn’t know what they were getting. Trout has leverage in the draft as well.
Dock_Elvis
Trout played in major amatuer showcases… He wasn’t just stuck playing summer ball in Jersey. Also a football player.
Dock_Elvis
Trout had several MLB GMs attend his games personally, including Billy Beane. It was just a.matter of draft boarding. Angels had inside info…the scout that signed him played minor league baseball with his dad, Jeff. Yankees and Angels both had him #2 behind Strasburg on their boards. Mariners about took him #2 or #3. He was a little late getting on the radar, not quite Bryce Harper. He was a multi sport athlete.
Jake 23
The MLB draft is a crapshoot. Think of how many first round picks flame out and then how many later round picks become all-stars. Wasn’t Piazza taken in the sixty-somethingth round and partly as a courtesy to Tommy Lasorda (his God Father)?
David Coonce
Piazza was a very late draft pick, the 63rd round, I think? Look at the first round of the last, say, 10 drafts. So many guys never even made the majors.
pft53
Here is the question nobody is asking. How many talented ballplayers never even get drafted because MLB collectively is low balling bonuses and pay low salaries (5-10K per YEAR) at the minor league level. MLB has historically, at least since the draft was implemented in 1965, obtained many great stars who were drafted in the later rounds. Could this be a reason why the talent pool seems to be regressing a bit? International talent gets paid a premium relative to their countries living standards so its mainly a domestic problem.
tesseract
If a player is good he is going to get paid regardless… Increasing salary and bonuses will not get you better players, it is what it is
Dock_Elvis
Talented players get drafted. Thats on the teams. The issue with minor league compensation is an entirely different matter. Most people in baseball, period, don’t make much money. Its an incredibly top heavy salary structure. Many of the players drafted out of high school will have college paid for, or if they are drafted low enough they won’t sign and head off to a top tier NCAA program. And, honestly, as being a person who was a part of a top tier program…the baseball development skills of a good NCAA school are likely more advanced than a player will get in the low minors.
willi
Don’t you think it’s Little coincidental that prior to Major League Baseball really taking serious its Illegal Substances Program , That Piazza went from being 338 Batting average player to a 278 Batting average player. He’s was as Phony as his dyeing his hair Blond , Granted he was not alone !
David Coonce
What are you talking about? Piazza got old and his batting average declined. That is what happens to older players. You really need to provide actual proof when you accuse a player of breaking the rules.