The Brewers will have the 15th overall selection in next month’s amateur draft and, while there is no consenus top pick, Milwaukee is confident it can land an impact player, writes Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. “I think a little bit more is being made out of (the volatility),” said Vice President of Amateur Scouting Ray Montgomery. “I think the draft has good depth, if it lacks what people might consider a more obvious first pick, or first couple, compared to drafts in the past. But the depth of the draft and the pool of talent, I think, is good.” Montgomery will be overseeing the draft for the Brewers for the first time and does not feel any extra pressure with GM Doug Melvin contemplating a rebuild. “I don’t think Doug’s worried about it, so it’s certainly nothing for me to worry about,” Montgomery told Haudricout. “In terms of adding talent, it’s our job to acquire the best available players, and they’ll work their way through the system the way they should, based on each individual time line.”
Here’s more on the Brewers from Haudricourt’s colleague Todd Rosiak, who hosted a recent online chat:
- Rosiak thinks the Brewers would like to trade Ryan Braun, but it is highly unlikely they will agree to absorb any of the money he’s owed. As a result, their trading partners would certainly be limited to big-market teams, and there would likely be questions regarding Braun’s thumb and his past PED issues.
- The Brewers have many trade candidates (as explored by MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth), but Rosiak feels Jean Segura may not be one of them. The shortstop provides the team with both cost certainty and growth potential. With the pending retirement of third baseman Aramis Ramirez and the dearth of free agent options, Milwaukee could slide Segura over to the hot corner next year.
- Rosiak does not see Carlos Gomez re-signing with the Brewers when his contract expires after the 2016 season, so trading him now will maximize their return and the longer they wait the less his value becomes.
- The Brewers could also receive a massive haul for catcher Jonathon Lucroy, but will most likely rebuff any offers because the franchise does not have a ready replacement.
- It is telling neither owner Mark Attanasio nor Doug Melvin have been commenting publicly on the GM’s future in the organization. Rosiak envisions a scenario where Melvin is promoted to president and a new general manager is hired.
- The Brewers lost their edge under Ron Roenicke despite his reputation as a player’s manager. Rosiak notes, in most situations, a looser leash winds up choking the skipper resulting in his dismissal.
Melvin already is President. Lots of us see Melvin stepping aside from the GM duties.
If Wright is out for the year I’d like the Mets to take a look at Braun and Ramirez. I’d be willing to give up Matz, Montero, Plawecki, Herrera, Gee, Niese. I think a combination of a few could do it. They just need offense. They’ve shown that even with their pitching, it won’t cut it with their offense.
I hope the mets trade for Braun.
All the money he is owed will stranglehold the organization
He’d easily be the 3 hitter on the Mets. Money-wise I’d ask to shed money off his contract and more prospects would be included in the deal.
I don’t think $20mil a year is going to kill them. Especially for the production he will provide the first 3 years or so. $20mil is starting to be come a good but not great player as scary as that is.
Braun has a no-trade clause to the Mets….
you and .,.
I don’t think your Mets would have much interest in adding Ramirez if they got Braun. That would be adding a boatload of money at the deadline.
I actually like the idea of a Braun/Ramirez combo heading to the Mets. Probably won’t happen, but a great match for a trade.
With Braun you are trading for a 31 year-old player who hasn’t performed at star level since 2012. And with $120+M left on his contract. How much is he actually worth, if the Brewers are adamant about not picking up money.?
Yeah I lean towards Braun having negative trade value right now. I don’t think anyone would be willing to take him for free.
You are greatly mistaken. Braun has considerable value even with his contract. Over half the league would be better off with Braun in RF for the next 5 years.
Braun for Beltran, Yankees pay all?
lol
Beltran’s been swinging the bat a lot better as of late actually. He shouldn’t be in the OF anymore(he just has no where else to play), but it’s not as if Braun is a defensive superstar either. Also, Beltran’s contract time table matches up well with NY’s top prospect’s projected readiness. So, emphatically as a NY fan, please no, save the money for more useful things.
It doesn’t make sense for either team.
Absorbing money seems like it’d be obligatory in any deal, and even then it wouldn’t be a simple feat. He’s swinging the bat decently this month, but who knows how long that will last? He also brings no defensive value with him. And with how much money he’s owed, on top of his nagging thumb and well documented PED history, even large market teams are likely going to pass on him without considerable salary relief. There’s also the fact that a chunk of the teams that would be considered large enough market to afford his contract have no place for him to play.Seems more like a dream than a reality that he’d be moved anytime soon, unless he was packaged with a more appealing commodity.
Actually he’s a pretty good defender and his thumb has been fine. “Decent” isn’t accurate either.
Braun is not a pretty good defender, he’s roughly league average or worse in most defensive stats, so he really doesn’t bring tangible defensive value. His thumb has been fine, fair point, but that’s absolutely going to be something to watch,especially in a team even pondering a deal. Also, decent was admittedly an undersell after looking at his stats, he’s been good this month, though my questioning of it’s sustainability stands. The problem is, even though he’s been good (not great), he’s being paid like a great player for a considerable amount of time. He’s just not going to be an easy guy to move unless, like I said, salary relief is provided or he’s packaged with a really intriguing piece that makes taking on all of that money more palatable.
Defensive stats and actual baseball are two different things. Sure, watch the thumb, but based on what the problem was, the procedure and the outcome its got a good chance of being a non-issue.
I’ll pass on the selective end point dance. I think your last sentence is wishful thinking. Time will tell.
It’s not as if I’m saying he’s an atrocious fielder or anything, there’s certainly worse (Hanley and Beltran immediately come to mind),he’s just not bringing any real positive value in that area of the game. Him being traded in general comes across as wishful thinking because of his contract, nothing wrong with speculative thinking of ways to make it seem more likely.
I’m not sure what it means to not bring positive value, but i doubt there’s a GM who would agree.
What it means is that he’s not bringing enough defensive value to really make that a reason to grab him, his defense is not worth writing home about, he’s just kind of there. He’s not terrible, but he’s not what most would call good either. With the money he’s being paid, you would really hope that he either had a more potent bat beyond contributor level or brought some positive defensive value with him. On the contrary, I doubt there’s a GM who wouldn’t agree with that much.
You’re wrong about his defense. Ah, and his bat is just contributor level.
Do you happen to be a MIL fan/is he your favorite player? It feels as if you have some type of bias favoring him. I’m really not knocking hard on him,I’m being as realistic as I can in an assessment without over crediting him or slanting him either . He’s just not a plus defensive contributor. As I said, he grades out roughly at league average or worse in most defensive stats, and even with the eye test, he’s just not anything special in the field. Offensively, he’s solid, and he’s had a good month, but he’s also not a superstar anymore either, he hasn’t played like one since ’12. So therefore yes, he’s a contributor. Not a bad thing, just not a $20mil player.
You’re pouring negativity. You’re not even remotely close to realistic.
Now you’re talking about his grades. Saying he’s “solid” with a “good” month isn’t even trying.
Your “therefore” conclusion is derived from premises that aren’t much more than Fangraphs marketing and emotions.
There is no pouring of negativity, you probably wouldn’t believe it, but I actually enjoy Ryan Braun’s presence in the game and I hope he fully turns back to the player he was. His bat still brings something to the table despite years of controversy and on and off production, and its quite interesting to see. That being said, when evaluating a player, you need to be realistic and get past biases in order to do so fairly, both without being too hard or too soft. The numbers he’s put up this month aren’t enough to start talking about him the same way as the Braun of the past, there needs to be more of a sample size before reaching those conclusions, so until then, talking him up as a star would be over zealous too soon.
Moreover, let’s just end this conversation by saying that our opinions definitely aren’t the same, but that’s the great thing about baseball. Every single matter, be it player performance or state of rules or international drafting, can be of a varying opinion from person to person/matter to matter, and it gives us something to talk about.
Braun currently sits 18th in overall OPS for MLB batter. And tied for 6th in HRs. This after a .547OPS start til last 2 days of April. He’s made diving catches in OF Highlight worthy. Hit the 4th longest HR at 474feet in Miller Park just the other day. Your assessment of Braun is wrong. He’s a man who’s putting together another top 5 MVP season now and has his swing locked in. GMs would be so lucky to have Braun available in trade
You realize how small of a sample size it’s been, right? If he keeps playing like he has for a more extended period of time, then it could be a different discussion for sure, but it has been a while since he’s put up numbers to be in the discussion you’re putting him in, so it’s fair to doubt they will last, and Im sure interested teams would want to see a larger sample size as well. As I said, I like Braun, I’m just not confident yet that he’s back to that form for good. Also, diving catches definitely don’t paint you the entire picture of what a guy is doing defensively, the entire package of what he gives you isnt anything teams will be wanting him on their team for specifically. He’d be a nice piece to add to a team that’s winning , but his contract is undoubtedly going to be tough to navigate,and the list of suitors that could theoretically take on that much money in season isn’t all that long.
16million is not going to hard for teams to take on in the top half of markets. And no I’m not going to call it a small sample size, because he’s hitting like he did 2007-2012 when he was healthy. The true small sample size is him hitting poorly in 2014. He hit fine as well in 2013 before the suspension.
The way it is now, Barring some heroic trade offer like Seager/Urias from the Dodgers, or Syndergaard+Matz from the Mets, Braun should not be available in trade. The guy is a 6+WAR player and is back to performing as so after 1 year of not doing so.
It actually is a good sized salary to take on in season regardless of market size, and a lot of the larger market teams are set in the OF anyways.An overall year is a small sample size, but the first 2 months of the season isnt? Also, if that’s what its going to take to get him from the Brewers, on top of his salary and history, you have nothing to worry about because he’s not going anywhere.
Braun has been very good to start this season, despite a somewhat low BABIP and ZiPS has him on pace for a .280/.350/.500 season with 30 HRs and about 15 SBs. That is very good production. Besides he is only owed $100 Million, including buyout, plus the rest of what he is owed this season.
Obviously, he will not be worth what he would have a few years ago but just this past off season we have seen Kemp moved despite similar circumstances. It doesn’t seem that much of a stretch to think that teams would find value in his output despite his contract.
People are underrating Braun’s trade value. The last month he has really turned it around. If he keeps it up till July and stays healthy he is back to being a middle of the order bat. That at $20mil isn’t that bad for a big market.
Is he going to bring back a massive haul? No…but I bet some team might be interested either in July or after the season.
20 million/year isn’t horrible…it’s the length of time that is horrible. No team is going to want him on the books for next 6 years.
The length isn’t that bad. Many hitters do very well through age 34/35. 31 year old Braun is mashing just as hard as before. He has a healthy body type so I don’t think it is unrealistic for him to be a really good player till 34/35. That leaves you with what? 1-2 years of nice hitting, but obviously not worth $20mil. Let’s put it this way. If Ryan Braun stays on a pace similar to right now I am pretty sure he could crack 5/$100mil on the open market. I think I would take Braun for his contract over a lot of these other $200mil contracts being handed out. The length is quickly forgotten when you think about having him on your win now team today. Just like all of the crazy FA contracts handed out every winter.
Biggest roadblock is just how complicated such a trade would end up being.
They just paid Nelson Cruz 4/57million for a worse player defensively with a ceiling that is 85-90% what Braun’s is. And hes 3years older than Braun.
Braun by the way isn’t being paid 20million in any single year. he has deferred payments. 16million is highest Braun will be paid in a season.
Braun has no-trade protection allowing him to block deals to all clubs except LA Angels, LA Dodgers, Miami, Tampa Bay and Washington……
He also has a mutual option for the last year of his contract at $15M, with a $4M buyout. Maybe he wants the option guaranteed.
Braun could only insist on the option year being guaranteed if he was being traded to a team that’s on his no trade list. If that were to happen someone would be paying him 111MM through his age 37 season, which is an AAV of 18.5MM. It’s gonna be tough to get good value back if the Brewers don’t eat some salary.
Along with the dollars and years left on his contract, Braun still has a bad rep from the PED usage and for threatening to sue the handler that took his sample after he was exonerated. Everyone knew he used PED’s then too. He got off on a technicality and ran his mouth like an idiot further tarnishing his reputation.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t ask for the option. That’s a colorful rendition of events you have. It sounds like a lot of Fox and ESPN.
We did you find the information about the no trade clause? I thought it was mentioned recently in an article on BP and linked here, but I could not find it. All I found is that his original extension called for a 6 team no trade list in 2014 and 2015. Couldn’t find if the second extension effected the original pact.
Cots. google it. He has just a 6team no trade clause this season. That above doesn’t kick in til after this season
That begins after this year.
limited no-trade clause 2014-15 (may block deals to 6 clubs)
Calling Jack Z.
Too bad I think their payroll is stuffed full…Jack Z would probably love to have a Braun reunion.
The combo of players they are putting out in LF and RF is not working. I think the have the parts to make it happen IF they can add payroll.
I guess they would only have to worry about 5mil or so this year…but they would have to figure out how to insert $20mil next year.
They can afford it, but does Braun make the most sense is another question. I rather go after someone like Ben Revere for LF, and go get another starter and a reliever or 2
Yep, Robinson Cano and Ryan Braun would make great post-PED, sub-par performing teammates!
I think you mean Cruz…
Shhhh… he’s about to get going!
So they look to trade Braun, owed 100m from ’16-20 and figure 6m still this year. he’s 31YO, 32 next season.. Think he’s got trade value? Hanley Ramirez signed as a FA last off season for 4/88,, 22m fairly easy option 5th year at 31YO and is 1 month younger.
Not saying it would be impossible to move him, but the Brewer’s will need to find a team come July needing a RH bat in a bad way and still get little back, if anything prospect wise. The bat just hasn’t been the same since his PED suspension, other than 1 month this year.
You mean other than his 2012 season?
18mil of that 100mil is deferred.
Cruz who’s also a PED offender, worse defensively, and 3years older just got 4/57mil. Brauns real contract is 5/82mil.
I think Braun’s 474foot HR just put notice he’s back. MVP level and should require a King’s Ransom to get in trade.
I feel like the only way we’re gonna move Braun is by doing something like the Braves did with Melvin Upton. Include him in a deal with a more valuable player, and also take a bad contract in return. I don’t know what a deal of that style for Braun would look like, though. Maybe that would be the way we’re convinced to move Segura? You want Segura, fine, you’ve gotta take Braun.
Ramirez, I think, is going to be a Met or a Giant, and I think it could happen soon. Mets could panic-trade soon, and the Giants just DFA’d McGehee today.
He’s right, I doubt Gomez re-signs. He’ll price himself off our team. Trade him now, while we can.
Why are we trading a guy who at worst on market size deal with a more valuable player AND taking on a bad contract? That honestly makes little to no sense for the Brewers.
I don’t think the Brewers hate Braun as much as Rosiak “thinks”.
Because the league most likely doesn’t value Braun as much as some of our fans do. Right now, most of the league probably sees an injury risk with a huge contract, rather than a star outfielder. And perhaps we don’t move him at all, then. I just think we probably would like to move him to give us financial flexibility to bring in guys when it’s time to compete again and/or to sign other guys long-term.
I’d guess its the exact opposite. The rest of the league sees a rare commodity while the fanbase is down on him.
I’d have to agree with you. I am sure there are some concerns with the thumb, but by July 31 if he is perfectly healthy…doubt it. I don’t think many teams will care about the PED situation. Once he is on said team hitting bombs no one will care. No one seems to be very worried about Tulowitzki who is nearly the same age and has way worse injury concerns. I just question whether they really need to pitch in money. Maybe if they want some decent prospects back, but I think for little return you could ship the whole contract.
You’re right, no one cares about the PED situation. Nelson Cruz is our surest proof of that. As for Tulo, I don’t understand why teams aren’t worried about him. I mean, not only is he an injury waiting to happen, but he also performs significantly better at Coors Field than anywhere else. Yes, he’s still an above average player on the road, but he’s not a star (only an .814 road OPS in his career). If I were a fan of a different team, I’d rather my team trade for Braun than Tulo. As for the return, that’s why I brought up the Kimbrel/M.Upton deal as a possible template to get someone to take him and his salary, but I said that thinking the league probably doesn’t value him very highly, which I’m realizing may be a flawed premise on my part.
You think so? I mean, I obviously don’t profess to know what the league thinks, I’m just leaning towards the usual huge contract being hard to move thing that we see. We’re both just guessing at this point, though. I suppose, though, if he keeps hitting the way he’s been hitting this month, he could become pretty valuable.
Mets need to also see the price for Carlos Gomez! I can see him playing RF with that glove and arm. Not to mention his bat and speed.
Segura will not play 3rd next year he will play 2nd with Sardinas at short rogers or hector gomez at third with Arcia at 3rd in 2017
Arcia will be a SS forever. Never getting moved. He’s so far ahead of Segura/Sardinas in talent defensively there he’s not the one to learn a different position. Arcia should be the Opening day SS for the Brewers in 2016.