The Yankees will welcome Masahiro Tanaka back into the rotation on Wednesday, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com tweets. It remains to be seen whether he can return yet again in top form, but at this point it’s hard to count him out. Tommy John surgery seemed inevitable, and could still be the result, yet Tanaka was excellent in his first four starts of the year before suffering the forearm strain that led to his most recent DL stint.
Here’s more on AL East starting pitching:
- Meanwhile, the Red Sox will hand the ball to rookie Eduardo Rodriguez at least once more, as Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald reports on Twitter. While the club will stay with a six-man rotation for now, that certainly indicates that his audition could result in a permanent spot — no surprise after an excellent first outing in which he tossed 7 2/3 shutout innings.
- Of course, the Red Sox rotation still has issues. Rick Porcello’s struggles are one significant concern, and Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe recently explained that Porcello has shown little sign of being a top-of-the-rotation starter. Boston owes him $82.5MM over the next four years under his recent extension — not exactly “ace” money, but quite a bit — but Porcello is carrying a 5.37 ERA. The good news is that Porcello, still just 26, is producing an 8.5% swinging strike rate (on the high side for him) and has increased his velocity from last year.
- It has been a breakout year for Jake Odorizzi of the Rays, who owns a 2.31 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a .210/.248/.327 batting line. If that sounds impressive, it’s not exactly all that Odorizzi is aiming for, as Matt Stein of Sports Talk Florida reports. “That’s my mindset every time,” he said. “Starts with trying to throw a perfect game, move on to a no-hitter, shutout. Just kind of work your way down the line. That’s the mindset I take into every game to be honest with you.” There’s plenty more value for Tampa Bay to tap into, as Odorizzi had just over one year of service time entering the season. All said, it’s beginning to look like it might be time to re-weigh yet again the deal that brought Odorizzi and Wil Myers to the Rays in exchange for James Shields and Wade Davis.
Porcello has to stop aiming for strikeouts. He is throwing the ball higher in the zone and as a result, he is getting more K/9 but suffering by giving up a ton of long balls. He has got to pitch to his abilities and realize that he can’t live at the top of the zone (unless it is situational in which going for the K is a good idea).
This exactly. He has got to get back to what made him a successful pitcher last season. Just because he’s making a ton of money, doesn’t mean he has to try and turn into a power arm. I’ll take 15 ground balls a night over the 7 k’s per 9 any day of the week for him. He’s trying to remake himself into what he thinks a guy making 20 million a season should be.
For sure, to me groundballs are way more effective. They keep your defense engaged, result in less pitches thrown, create double plays. He needs to start burying that pitch just below the knees and stop trying to find extra velocity that isn’t there
Well it’s surely there, but if you have to sacrifice location for it, then it’s useless. Call it Joe Kelly disease.
Ground balls are not more effective than strikeouts.
Your factual statement is inaccurate
It’s absolutely not inaccurate. Non-contact has an equal or better outcome than every batted ball type.
I can get two outs on a ground ball with one pitch, a strikeout takes three. A strikeout doesn’t guarantee the batter won’t get on base if the balls gets by the pitcher. I’m not debating if the strikeout itself is better than the ground ball, I would rather have a pitcher with a great sinker who induces a lot of ground balls then a pitcher who strikes out 7 batters a game.
They are in Porcello’s case. Particularly if the ground ball pitcher has a a FIP of 3.67 and the strikeout pitcher has a FIP of 4.82.
Thank you
Causation and correlation.
I think it really comes down to what type of pitcher pitcher we’re talking about. Porcello’s repertoire isn’t one that’s highly indicative of a strike out pitcher, his best work comes when he tries to induce ground outs and allows his defense to do their part to help. I’d think most would prefer an effective strikeout pitcher because you’re reliant on the rest of your team much less, but not every guy has the capabilities to do so effectively, and as long as the outs are coming, it really doesn’t matter much how it is the pitcher is getting it done. It’s all about the guy pitching the way his skill set dictates.
We’re shifting the goal posts here.
Ground balls are not better than strike outs. Some pitchers can maximize their skill set by inducing ground balls. That has nothing to do with the utilities of the strike out and ground ball. You choose non-contact over contact every time.
Rick Porcello’s skill set is entirely secondary to the point I was making. A pitcher like Porcello who isn’t very skilled at getting swings and misses ought to be trying to manage contact. That’s a given.
I agree. Sometimes big dollars make guys press. He’s never gonna be worth that gross overpay, but is certainly better than a 5+ ERA pitcher. He will settle in as a good 3 for the Sox. If they get Hamels it will take the heat off that entire rotation and they will all improve. Obviously, Betts, Swihart, and ERod are off table, but a deal can still be struck.
Sox have the inventory.
An article from this site roughly two weeks ago argued how Rick Porcello was indeed an ace. Make up your mind…
He fails the “eye” test for an Ace (he gives up too many hits and HARD hits), he fails the traditional stats test (as referenced above), and he fails on advanced metrics. So no…he is definitely not an ace. He has the upside of a solid #3, but he’ll be more likely to be a #4. Over the off-season I posted his stats as compared to Jon Niese (a #3 but more likely #4) and Dillon Gee (the definition of a #5 in the MLB). His stats were as good to a bit worse than those two.
Porcello was always looked at as a solid #3-4 SP while in Detroit by Tiger fans.. It was the trade to Boston that got East Coast fans thinking that he now is an ace. They never called him that till he became a Red Sox.
Here was my post (I added the pitcher names below)
————————————
Last 2 years….
Comp 1…ERA: 3.78…336IP…WHIP: 1.27…H/9: 9.00…BB/9: 2.41…K/9: 6.32
Comp 2…ERA: 3.53…331IP…WHIP: 1.34…H/9: 9.54…BB/9: 2.53…K/9: 6.61
Comp 3…ERA: 3.84…382IP…WHIP: 1.25…H/9: 9.33…BB/9: 1.96…K/9: 6.38
Comp 4…ERA: 3.94…404IP…WHIP: 1.36…H/9: 9.09…BB/9: 3.14…K/9: 7.35
Who would you take?
————————————
Dillon Gee #1
John Niese #2
Rich Porcello #3
Wade Miley #4
Um, which one? Regardless, the argument presented above is from Cafardo, not MLBTR.
He is referring to a post a couple weeks ago that linked to an article from the Boston Herald that made those claims. He is just misplacing the blame.
Most of the “articles” from this site are actually summaries of articles from other sites. That’s why you will see conflict. MLBTR is reporting other people’s opinions/reports.
Yeah, we try to give clear attribution when passing on the reporting/opinions of other outlets. If you see analytical points that aren’t given attribution, it is probably from the author of the post.
E.g., in this one, I added observations on Tanaka, Porcello, and Odorizzi. But the part about Porcello not being a top of the rotation arm is from Cafardo, as indicated in the post. (I added the point re the $.)
Porcello is a groundball pitcher who has displayed poor command this year. Too many pitches up. I don’t think he’s TRYING to blow people away with high heat on purpose, though. He just isn’t burying his pitches. He’d better figure it out soon.
Porcello was/is a pretty mediocre pitcher before his outlier 2014 campaign, was probably smart of him to take that contract Boston offered him.
Not really true. He’s definitely mediocre this year, but he’s had three straight years of solid peripherals, that have been trending downward. He’s just trying to do too much.
At the time of the signing and thru the off-season, all anyone talked about was that the money was justified by his upward trending peripherals.
Yes trending upward, by going down. I should have been more clear. His results have not been consistent with the trends from prior seasons. I think he’s changed how he pitches to try and “earn” his money.
Every contract the Red Sox sign is justified by idea that they are smarter than everyone else. If another team did this it would be viewed as a panic/reactionary move brought about by losing their ace in free agency by low-balling his initial offer. But for the Red Sox it was seen that they were “ahead” of the game by signing a player before he became a superstar.
He has some mileage on the arm…it was Boston’s attempt to run 5 “3ish”starters out there instead of a #1 and bad back end. I don’t care what the peripherals say on Porcello…he needed to go to a Pittsburgh, Chicago Cubs and not sign that huge contract where he’d take that Boston heat.
It’s important to remember that when you giving up a ton of PA per inning your K numbers are going to be skewed.
He’s actually done a worse job at striking out batters when adjusting for PA. Last season it was 5.34 PA/K. This season it’s 6.51 PA/K. His career PA/K is 6.8 (pretty much where it is this season). Please adjust your article accordingly.
Still at peak career rates by swinging strike rate, but I changed it to reflect that instead of K/9, which I agree can be misleading.
Even with good peripherals I will never get why Porcello is viewed by so many people as a top-of-the-rotation guy. He gets hit a lot, he is not very clutch, etc. To me, he is a 3rd-4th starter in a good team. Good luck to Boston, 20+millions/year to a perennial 4.00+ ERA, 275. opp avg, 9.0+ H/9 guy.
I would much rather have Miguel Gonzalez of the Os, same production for a much lower price, what a terrible extension
Me too! But I actually find Gonzalez much better
How do you acquire the ‘clutch’ gene?
Have Derek Jeters baby
The baby would be clutch, not the woman having it. She’d just be rich.
…But the baby would be hers, thus she’d acquire the gene.
um…you need some lesson in Biology. The only way she acquires the gene is if she marries Jeter, and wins it in the divorce.
Personal Fortitude.
Getting baptised by ‘Big Papi’ could be a good move
I would disagree that the Wil Myers trade hasn’t worked out for the Royals. They got Wade Davis in addition to Shields who has been a historically good bullpen piece and a huge part of their WS run.
To me, Davis has turned out to be just as valuable to the Royals as Shields had been. Total dominance out of the pen. Interesting how mediocre SP can go to the bullpen and be dominant. Zach Britton of the Orioles is another example.
And Brian Matusz
I didn’t say that. Like any trade involving young players, there’s a long time period required to evaluate it. Odorizzi has been one of the best pitchers in baseball thus far — seems fair to consider that.
But you’re right, I should’ve mentioned Davis, and edited to do so.
In total dollars Porcellos contract is nowhere near “ace” money but in AAV it is right up there. His AAV for the extension would be 12th among pitchers today, though that is very likely to move down a few spots by the start of next year. That is quite the sum for a pitcher like Porcello, could end up being a more expensive version of Ricky Nolasco.
Ricky Nolasco had never won before the Twins threw all of that money at him and he still hasn’t won. Big difference. Porcello at least had a track record of sticking 175-200IP of work in the books, something hardly anyone, short of Twin’s management considered Nolasco capable of with nothing in his repertoire, short of a hook that works on rarely and command of a FB that is little better for us Marlins fans that endured him long enough.
Won what? What has Rick Porcello won that Nolasco hasn’t? If you are suggesting win totals, not that has any relevance, they are roughly the same in that regard. Only once in the 6 years before the Twins signed Nolasco did he not go 175-200 innings so he too has that track record.
Porcello has been the stronger groundballer and Nolasco has shown better ability to get K’s, but they aren’t as different as many might think. They both are workhoue pitchers that have made careers out of under-performing their peripherals, they both have had only two years of sub-4 ERA pitching, both limit walks, both have a career h/9 of roughly 10, and have nearly identical poor LoB% for their careers. One might think Porcello is better or has the chance to be but $30+ million better? And that is on top of what has been a terrible deal thus far.
That Nolasco deal was also a head scratcher. I watched the guy pitch uninspired baseball in MIA and he was richly rewarded because…..I’m not sure.
Do you just make stuff up? Porcello has gotten to 175 IP several times, but has only had one season in his career with 185+ IP. Nolasco had 185+ IP in 5 of 6 seasons and averaged 192 IP over the 6 seasons before his FA contract. He also had two 200+ IP and another 199 IP season during that time. Nolasco was truly the pitcher who had the track record of being a workhorse.
I wouldn’t exactly call Tanaka’s opening day start excellent..
Overall results were: nearly 10 K/9, sub-1.00 WHIP.
His opening day stats were ERA of 9.00 and his whip was 1.75 and his game 2 stats were, whip 1.40 and his ERA was 5.40.. So through his first 2 games his ERA was 7.00 and his whip was 1.56.. Like I said he was pretty far from excellent to start the season. His 3rd game was against Tampa’s anemic offense.. I will admit that game 4 against Detroit was a gem but it seemed like in his 2 last games he had reverted back to his original pitching style. He was throwing his 4 seam more often than his 2 seam and he was reaching 94 on the gun compared to opening day when he only thew a handful of 4 seams.
Porcello has always been a ground ball pitcher due to his nice sinking fastball. The problem with increased velocity for such a pitcher, is that the ball has less time to move. Basically, the pitch flattens out. Groundball pitchers also give up more hard hit balls. What was a flyball in Comerica Nat’l Park, is a HR at Fenway. It’s still early, but Boston knew it was risky to sign a player based on “projected” future performance, rather than proven performance.
I very much thought for several seasons that Porcello looked like a Cubs or Pirates project. The idea that he’s an ace, as held by some, might be a stretch. Sure… Higher velocity will flatten a two seamer, but most pitchers can adjust to this in game by tightening the grip slightly.
Porcello had this problem 2 years ago with the Tigers. What I stated was reported as the problem then. As he, again, is showing an increase in velocity, I am suspecting its a similar situation. I am not a pitching coach. I don’t even play one on TV. 🙂
Cy-Naka should just opt out for the tj surgery….he’s not his old Japan self….with easy-to-use 95 heaters and magical break from his Splitters….the bulldog ability too throw 130 pitches with out any stress per start….it’s definitely time….
Getting TJS when your doctors say you dont need it is pretty dumb. There’s also no guarantee a pitcher returns to form After he gets it.
It’s not time to get it until your doctors say you need it. I think they know what they are doing.
Doesn’t it make you face-palm to still be hearing this said? It’s a rather tired point, for me at least. If/when it’s deemed he needs it by the qualified people in charge of that call, he’ll get the procedure done.
Since Porcelllo signed the extension everyone has reported it as 4 year/82.5m, but in reality when you include this year (final arb year) it’s 5 years $95m
No, in reality it is 4/82.5m. They were separate contracts so he counts as 20m+ towards the salary cap in future years.
That’s not how we value deals. We focus on new money. BOS already had him for that year at that figure, and chose to add on more.
You do have a point, though. Take the Homer Bailey deal, which came before he’d agreed to a one-year arb deal. So perhaps that should’ve been called 5/~95 or something, given what the sides had filed at for the last year of arb control.
We can’t say for sure what the $ number should be, but for comparing those deals we certainly need to acknowledge the difference — it’s not fair to say that Bailey got a 6-year commitment while Porcello only got 4, for instance.
Point of reference could be how MLB sees the deal. How the AAV is figured to go against the salary cap is very important as to what a team can do going forward to stay under the cap. That also has some importance as to how we value the deal. Not sure how to compare deals with teams that no chance to hit the cap thou.
I think the Royals are happy with the Odorizzi trade. They made the WS, which they would not have without making that trade. Shields mentored a lot of the young pitchers, teaching half the staff the Rays change-up. Shields mentored the entire team in understanding what it takes to win. Meanwhile Wade Davis is the best set-up man in MLB, now going on a full year of not giving up a run.
I’d suggest that Dayton Moore and his staff are happy about Odorizzi’s success…..except when he pitches against the Royals.
Not attempting to stir the pot, and pardon me if I inadvertantly do so, but a BIG sigh of relief (as a Tigers fan) that Porcello signed that deal with BOS instead of us. I think Dave Dombrowski did quite well in replacing both Porcello AND Scherzer with more affordable options and minimal damage to the rotation. Greene and Simon have been better-than-expected, for me anyhow. Re-signing Simon should be cheaper and less risky for DET, if they want to do so.
We (as Tiger fans) are also encouraged by how well Wilson has pitched and Cesepedes should have a strong year. The other piece, 20yr. old Gabe Speier is doing well in West Michigan (A ball). Both are much more than the QO we could not get if Cespedes leaves.
Porcello started 2014 out in the first 2-4 months looking like the front-of-the-rotation pitcher the Tigers had hoped he would be. The last few months of 2014 he looked like the #4-5 starter he’d been the previous 5 years.
The Tigers were smart to get someone for him while they still could. They would never give him the contract the Red Sox did. Why Boston thought he could become a quality starter in Fenway when he couldn’t do it in Comerica is a stumper.
I bet Cherington wishes he never pulled the trigger on the Porcello trade. A guy with a career 4.37 ERA for a huge bat in Cespedes. Porcello is now another $20MM dud.
If you look at the Red Sox rotation money wise : they extended Porcello and Miley. Buchholz may not have his option picked up or will be traded at the deadline. Kelly is still at the minimum and Masterson is a FA and will not rec. a QO.
The Sox probably will go all in on Cueto next year and possibly Hamels, as long as they stay in striking distance this season.
They have ERod and Brian Johnson that will take the Masterson and Buch slots and Kelly will go to the pen at some point and he will be the Sox Wade Davis, maybe as early as the 2nd half of this season.