After a slow start to the season, many have wondered if it’s about time for Red Sox slugger David Ortiz to retire. Boston hitting coach Chili Davis doesn’t think that’s necessarily the case, however, as Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald writes. “Throughout my career, there were too many people that were ready to write me off way before I got to 39. And every time they did, I came back with a strong year, and they were like, ‘Well, this may be his last year.’ Nobody tells you when you’re done. You know when you’re done,” Davis said. “If you’re that kind of player — and David is that kind of player — he’ll know when he’s done.” Here’s more from the AL East..
- Red Sox offseason acquisition Rick Porcello is looking more like a complete pitcher and an ace with every start, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes. So far, Porcello is looking like the kind of pitcher Boston was hoping for when they inked him to a four-year, $82.5MM extension in April. Through eight starts this season, the 26-year-old has pitched to a 4.26 ERA with 7.8 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9.
- The Orioles’ farm system used to be pretty barren when it came to quality pitching choices. Now, there are multiple quality starting pitchers waiting in the wings for 2016, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes. Kubatko identifies Mike Wright, Tyler Wilson, and Zach Davies as rotation possibilities and adds that Steve Johnson could be a bullpen option down the road, provided that the O’s are alright with him being out of options.
- Catcher Stephen Vogt never got the chance to break out with the Rays but he’s doing it now as he’s behind the plate for the A’s, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. Vogt was designated for assignment by Tampa Bay two years ago and traded to Oakland for cash considerations.
I’m glad Vogt is off to the start he is. Good guy and it raises his trade value.
Porcello has had 5 quality starts in 8 tries, has an ERA of 4.26, has a below average ERA+, and has let up more than a hit per IP. I’m not sure what the definition of an ace is, but that isn’t it.
I wouldnt call him an ace. But I would say he is a nice number 2. I’ve watched all his games and he has kept us in the game and been pretty good overall. Ace is subjective but I think there are only a few aces in MLB and he is not one of them.
His 3rd start of the season was really bad and makes his overall perfomance look worse than it has been. “Ace” is a strong word, but he has been pretty good.
Perhaps you should actually read all the words in the post?
It was talking about how his recent starts having him LOOKING more LIKE an ace. It didn’t call him a literal baseball ace, and it clearly wasn’t referring to his first few starts, when he struggled.
In his last four starts, Porcello has given up a grand total of 6 ERs and has a 2.10 ERA. If he were to keep that up (unlikely), that would indeed be an ace. So, yes, he HAS looked like an ace recently. Everything the post said is valid.
He has a 3.76 xFIP over those 4 starts which is in line with his career 3.87 xFIP. I would strongly advise against reading too much into some good luck results over a 4 game stint, especially when the underlying statistics have him looking like the same pitcher.
An Ace with a 4.26 ERA would change the definition of the word “Ace.” Porcello’s performance so far is within range of his career numbers.
The reason that Porcello is NOT an ace is that when he does not have his best stuff, he cannot keep his team in the game.
He has 2-3 great games in a row, followed by a flop. That is his MO for SIX YEARS with the Tigers. Boston writers who are not used to this, amplify his positive and downplay his negative.
Hes only had 1 flop so far in 8 starts, but in 4 of those 8 starts, hes was mediocre at best.
Yeah, kind of confused to see a mid-4 ERA after 35 games be considered an ace. Now, if they want to break out his starts and tell me he’s had one 6-run inning that throws off his numbers, fine– but I don’t see that cited here.
Yea he shouldn’t be called an ace but he has pitched very well. The game that inflates his ERA was against Balitmore in mid April. Eight runs in like 5 innings.
I wouldn’t call Porcello’s performance so far as “ace-caliber”, but he has been pretty good. His home-run rate so far this year has been incredibly high so when that stabilizes to his career norms, I think his performance as a whole will be more like a #3/#2 starter.
I agree. I see Porcello as a very nice number 2 starter.
I think that is his ceiling. Anyhow, all the Red Sox need is one true ace and I think their rotation will be very good. I wanna see E-Rod really soon, and see what he is capable of.
Agreed. I would like them to have him up and then make a move for a rental pitcher.
His HR rate has been rather high, but isn’t that what happens when you move from Comerica Park to Fenway Park?
Well, he is a groundball pitcher, so no, it shouldn’t jump as high as it has so far this year. It will be higher, yes, but not super high.
Ortiz is a me-me guy. He will retire after 500 hr’s.
Ortiz is not a “me-me” guy. He has won three world series and has always been loved by his teammates. Very good for the younger players.
Tell that to Tito
Tito leaving had nothing to do with him. I dont even remember him being covered much with that mess. It was mostly Lackey, Beckett, Buch.
You missed the Ortiz interrupting Tito postgame where he went nuts with the f-bomb over a scorekeeper not giving him a hit.
Youtube David Ortiz is Upset over the loss of an RBI
Tito didnt seem too mad haha. It was three years ago and had NOTHING to do with Tito leaving. He is beloved in Boston, Has won three world series, and is a good mentor to guys like Betts and Borgarts. Not just that but star players like Hanley have took less money to play with him.
He let Tito hang out to dry that season
I dont know what your talking about? Tito was fired by ownership for the whole seven wins in Sept. Nothing to do with Ortiz.
I think he will retire after 500 HRs but if the team is really good, I can see him going for another ring as well.
The Sox aren’t gonna let him play until he wants to stop. At some point Hanley is gonna have to DH. Hanley has been replacement level so far because of his defense. (0.8 oWAR, -0.9 dWAR, 0.0 WAR)
As long as Ortiz doesnt have a massive drop off, I think he has a pretty long leash. I think he probably retires after next year.
Hes already having a massive drop off. Hes on pace to be a below average player and hes hitting .236.
Really? He’s a had a whole season where he was that bad and come back to hit .270 and slug .529 the very next season. Let’s wait for the weather to warm up before we pronounce him dead.
This guy has been playing at an elite level for 13 years and just last year hit 35 homeruns in 140 games. Its early May and your calling it a career? A little early dont you think?
I’m not calling it a career, I’m saying that the Red Sox aren’t gonna let him keep clogging up their DH spot if they have better options, which they already do.
He is such a good hitter and the face of the team. He is also signed for a couple more years with options that are fairly cheap. Hanley will move to first for a year probably and then to DH.
Not necessarily. He has a history of struggling in April and May. Tell me this at the end of the year when he will probably end up being the 2nd most productive hitter on the team.
He has a career OPS of .868 in April and .883 in May.
Yes, but that is still his two of his most unproductive months of the year. He has had starts worse than this before, and has rebounded fine.
Pablo is the next DH, Hanley could do first
Pablo is younger and a better defender then Hanley.
Pablo is 5foot nothing…at first? Nope
Sandoval is only 2 inches shorter than Napoli.
Plus they can always play Swihart at first next year with Vazquez catching, Hanley DHing and Sandoval at 3rd.
Swihart projects as an excellent offensive catcher, which by any stretch would make him a below average first baseman. Putting him at first would be a mistake.
then do you trade Vazquez? His value is wasted as a backup
Probably once he proves hes healthy.
Let’s actually wait until he comes back from TJS before we worry about that. He may not even be back until halfway through next season if Wieters is any indication. They may trade one of them, but having a defensive superstar as a backup wouldn’t exactly hurt the team.
Swiharts value comes from him being the catcher.
other way around.
No way. Pablo is solid defensively at third. It’s Hanley.
I think it is very possible Hanley is pushed to first after this year. Nap probably isn’t gonna be resigned, especially if he continues to struggle. As for Ortiz, I think they’ll continue to let him play until he calls it quits. The man isn’t gonna continue playing after his 500 homers if his overall numbers are gonna drop greatly. He wants to at least get a shot at the HoF.
Me me guys write bonuses in their contract when they achieve milestones.
For being a me-me guy, he’s had a solid-solid MLB career!
Porcello has pitched better his last 3 outings but lets keep in mind those outings have been against the Rays, A’s and Mariners not exactly offensive powerhouses.
What about the one before where he went 7 innings and gave up one run against Toronto? Doesn’t count?
It counts, but doesn’t validate the claim of him becoming an ace.
No one said he was. You can’t invalidate games against bad teams and ignore the good ones.
I’m pretty sure thats exactly what the article says.
“Red Sox offseason acquisition Rick Porcello is looking more like a complete pitcher and an ace with every start”
Actually the article does refer to him as an ace with every start.
That’s not what I was arguing. I don’t think he’s an ace, but you can’t dismiss what he’s done just because it’s against bad teams, nor can you ignore the prior start because it doesn’t fit your narrative. He’s pitched well in his last four outings, one of which was against a very good offensive team.
I wasn’t dismissing it. Just like I wasn’t dismissing his 4 starts before that one. I just didn’t mention them. It seems to me one good start against a good offensive team (Jays) and 3 good starts against below average offensive teams does NOT qualify a pitcher as a “complete pitchers and ace with every start”. But that’s just my opinion.
But even in his most recent 4 starts where he has better results, he sill has a 3.76 xFIP. He hasn’t really been a better pitcher, just had some better luck. Porcello continues to be what he has always been which is a good #3 SP. As a Rays fan, I just continue to hope he is Boston’s best SP for years to come.
You’re misquoting. He said “a more complete pitcher with every start.” And the only mention of the word ace, was the phrase “ace-in-the-making.” Which isn’t saying he’s an ace now. You didn’t mention it because it didn’t fit your narrative of Porcello only beating bad offensive teams. He’s beat a good offensive team and has had 4 descent starts in a row.
His last 4 starts he has better results, but still has a 3.76 xFIP. That 3.76 xFIP is in line with the 3.89 xFIP for this season and 3.87 xFIP he has for his career. Porcello is what he is which is a good #3.
You’re assuming that a pitcher can’t improve or learn to do things a bit differently. I’m not saying he is an ace or he will be an ace, but to say a 26 year old is done learning or improving is selling him short.
Could a 26 year old pitcher change? Sure. However, Porcello hasn’t shown much to think that he has changed yet. Since 2011 his xFIP- has been 99, 94, 81, 97 and 97. His FIP- has been 101, 95, 89, 97 and 110. That to me looks like a pitcher who hasn’t really improved. He may have changed his style, but he hasn’t shown significant improvement.
Victoria, please forgive me but you are the one misquoting the article. The writer NEVER says “”ace-in-the-making.”
Did you actually read the article?
“They swung the bats with mid-90s power and were led by 26-year-old ace-in-the-making and 23-year-old rookie Blake Swihart as they spoiled Hernandez’s perfect 6-0 record.”
He didn’t pitch well against Oakland, and if you think pitching well in his last 3/4 starts is evidence that he is turning a corner than thats foolish (not saying you are, just if that is your thinking). Fact is its very concerning that his GB% keeps falling, giving up many more flyballs which are resulting in an increase in the number of HRs he has allowed. Factor into the fact he never was, and never will be a strikeout pitcher, its safe to say he is not nor will be an ace. A #2 starter is his ceiling, and he hasn’t reach that yet.
I don’t recall arguing that he was an ace. Nor did the article even say he was an ace. I only said that he pitched well against Toronto which is a good offensive team.
there are plenty of reporters in Boston saying he will or at least could be an ace, which is too high of a ceiling for him.
I’m all for looking at the bright side of things in baseball, but even I gave my screen the stink eye when seeing Porcello and ace in the same sentence.He doesn’t have the results this season to dictate he’s developing into an ace, he’s been moderately effective on a team with a struggling rotation,therefore he’s going to look a little better than usual. And no, I’m not bashing him, he’s a solid supplemental arm,he just shouldn’t be put into the ace conversation,expecting that of him is a reach.
The Red Sox love the durable arms like Porcello. Joe Kelly should be tried out as closer for next year.
If anyone has ace stuff it’s
Eduardo Rodriguez
LHP, Pawtucket
Don’t get too excited. Scouts see him as a number 3+. Not an ace.
Not true. Many scouts see his stuff and demeanor on the mound as stuff that dictates a ceiling of a top of the rotation starter. It’s a ceiling, of course, but still.
Find me one. I’ve read a ton about him and never seen anyone say number one starter. They could be wrong sure, but I’ve never seen a number one ceiling mentioned for him anywhere. Sickles rates him as a B+ borderline B. Sox prospects gives him a “ceiling of a quality number 3 starter.” His increase in velocity is certainly intriguing, but not enough for scouts to project him as a number one.
You’re absolutely right. But besides the true elite guys, Sickels pegs every good SP prospect a #3 starter. It’s kind of a weird thing I’ve noticed with him. I think it’s more of him hedging his bet.
I think a lot of scouts do that to be honest. Every single starter seems to have a ceiling of number three. I’ll be thrilled if he’s better, it’s just no one seems to think that at the moment.
Isn’t he a top 50-75 prospect? I can’t picture a projected mid rotation pitcher ranking that high.
It depends on the list you look at. And Owens is ranked that high on a lot of lists and no one will say number one about him either. 59, 89, 65 on BA, MLB, BP. He throws hard, but has average control, a potential plus changeup and potential average slider. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to see him pitch in the majors as soon as possible. His scouting reports may have suffered from his poor performance at the beginning of last year. Then again Joe Kelly lights up the radar gun too.
I know Porcello is still very young and all but after 1k Innings in the majors is a drastic change something that occurs that often for someone with so much MLB experience. Maybe a breakout year or two but to expect him to develop into an ace seems like a stretch.
Yeah, it probably is a bit of a stretch however, Porcello is a bit odd in the fact that he has had little minor league time. He has had to develop himself while pitching in the majors which most guys don’t have to do. So in a sense you could argue a lot of the 1k innings have been spent as he was developing.
Porcello = not even close to an ace
Porcello = not even close to a #1
Porcello = not even close to a #2
close to a #2.
Yea I would say that he has pitched like a decent number 2.
Not really.. An ERA over 4 in this day and age isn’t good.
Terrible defence in Detroit.
His career FIP is 4.04
It has continued to improve though.
So whats his excuse in Boston? He has 2 gold glovers plus Pablo Sandoval behind him
It has been 8 starts.
He got off to as slow start. 2.10 ERA in Porcello’s last 4 starts. 2 weeks into May is poor time to judge a players season.
The same D that was behind Max Scherzer?
Max was a strikeout pitcher while in Detroit. He also didn’t get very many ground balls while he was there. The defence in the infield really didn’t affect him too much. Of course, the defence that Detroit had last year in the infield was improved, hence why Porcello’s ERA got better. His FIP stayed in line with the year before.
True, but it’s not like Porcellos BABIP was high last year. It was .298. League average was .295.
The results he got last year were in line with what he is capable of and reflected his FIP. The years before that the defence hurt him and caused his ERA to be inflated. His HR/9 have really hurt him so far this year, but other than that the numbers match up. I also think his GB% will go up once he starts pitching lower in the zone and stops aiming for K’s (his K/9 will drop too).
Porcello is GB pitcher, Scherzer isFB pitcher. Defense not nearly as important.
He’s still young and is looking better.
Basing a pitcher on 9 starts isn’t good either. That means, by your method, These pitchers (all higher ERAs than Porcello) aren’t #2 either: Doug Fister, Gio Gonzalez, Jered Weaver, Anibal Sanchez, Jeff Samardzija, Chris Sale, Matt Latos etc.
They have a good track record, he doesn’t. His career ERA is over 4 and he only has 1 season with an ERA under 4.
I wouldn’t say not even close to a #2, that’s a little harsh because when he’s on,he has the looks of a potential future #2, although he’s not there yet by any means. He’s a passable #3 as things sit.
Hes definitely a number two based on 2014 numbers.
“Red Sox offseason acquisition Rick Porcello is looking more like a complete pitcher and an ace with every start. Through eight starts this season, the 26-year-old has pitched to a 4.26 ERA with 7.8 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9.”
hmmmm…..
The Guy a number three on most staffs on his good days, and a career bullpen long man on most.
Can you give me 16 teams with two better starters, based on 2014 numbers?
Orioles are no different than other years really.
Plus, all of their young pitchers are unproven.
However pitching might not be the biggest problem this year.
This year our offense is uneven to say the least and quite frankly, I think there’s tension between those in the dugout and those in the Front Office.
A capable 3 at best.
Based on what? Last season At age 25, Porcello posted 38th best WAR among Starting Pitchers. That number puts him squarely in the middle of #2s. But, somehow you’ve not only dismissed that, but that at age 26, he’ll never improve on it (“at best”).
Read the article. It doesn’t say he is pitching like an ace. It says he is looking like an ace-in-the-making.
The Boston media isn’t doing these guys any favors with the constant hyping after every good performance. JBJ was supposed to make people forget Ellsbury, now Betts is supposed to do that. Bogaerts was a superstar in the making. Now Porcello is turning into an ace? He is just a much more expensive version of Shane Greene.
Porcello’s ERA+ last season was 115 and pitched 204 innings. Greenes last year was 102+ in 78 innings. Greene dreams of the day he’s Porcello.
I bet the Phillies fans feel stupid now after saying all spring how the Sox need an ace. They forgot Porcella was already in the fold. They should have taken JBJ for Hamels when they had the chance. Sure he has a .192 career average but he is a defensive wizard. Rumor has it that the Sox were also offering Craig In the deal. Oops Phillies. They have the audacity to ask for Bogaerts, Betts, and Swihart. To be fair, Bogaerts isn’t great in the field, but he does have a career average of .244. I know their SS has a superior glove, but what’s he hitting? And Betts, really? He has a career BA of .263. Those players don’t grow on trees. Obviously Swihart was ridiculous. He’s already showing he has a major league bat. How good would his .167 BA look in their line-up? So typical of Philly for overrating their talent. What ha Hamels ever done In his MLB career?
Look out everyone. We have an expert over here.
T-Hanks brother. At least someone appreciates a post with actual data. God bless.
No data in there. Just judgeing guys with super small simple sizes. Betts has looked really good this year. BA is only one part of a big puzzle. I dont think its crazy that a team didnt want to move three guys who have all been top 20 prospects in the last year and all play prime postions.Its not like Hamels is young ( 31). Its not like Hamels is cheap ( Could be owed 125 million). Its not like the Phillies are in this great postion (Meddling farm system, strong division, very few strong trade chips). The Red Sox have plenty of top prospects ( top 100, at least one top 20-30) that they would trade.
My bad. Shouldn’t have used career MLB numbers. Babe Ruth and HS would have been more valid.
Great argument. I guess after Stwharts 10 games we should release him. All three of those guys have very good chances to have long careers. Get out of here with using BA to judge a player (As if 263 was hitting 097) and judging players based on A couple games.
The sample size for Craig, Bogaerts and JBJ is not all that small, but I’ll play along. So you think the sample is too small to judge these players, but yet you can determine they are going to have long careers and that the Phillies are being ridiculous in asking for them. Got it.
Do you know who has a large sample size? Cole Hamels. But Sox fans dismiss his accomplishments. They focus on his record vs AL East as opposed to his entire career including playoffs/WS. So I guess a large sample size of high performance is not as valuable as Boston players who have small sample size of poor performance?
Are you seriously judging Betts on BA alone? You obviously don’t follow what’s been doing besides batting average. Betts has 3.4 WAR in 377 PAs. That projects to a little over 6 WAR in a full season. That would put him in top 15 for position players in 2014.
I am not allowed to judge Betts. Too small sample size. Unless you think he’s Willie Mays, then sample size is plenty big.
What?
What?
Well now you are putting words in my mouth. Hey you know what else is important? Age. Xander Bogaerts is 22. Mookie Betts is 22. Swihart is 23. Cole Hamels? 31. We have no clue what players were offered. Players like Owens and Margot were probably gonna be packaged with Craig just to offset money a little. Cole Hamels is owed 120 million. Pitchers tend not to do as well in thier 30’s. There have been huge drop offs (Lincy, Willis, Webb, Lee) and tons of tommy Johns. What do you think a fair trade would be?
You’re right. Age is important. 22 y/olds don’t play as well as 31 year olds. Cole Hamels is not owed $120 million.
Yep that is 100% the point. They are just getting started. While Betts (Whos already a very good player) bogerts, and blake are hiting their primes, Hamels will be playing golf. Yes he is with his reachable vesting option.
I’m sorry. I forgot that the low % of top prospects that make an impact in the majors does not apply to Boston. Of course all 3 Red Sox will have great careers. I should have looked at their track record. What was I thinking. And of course Hamels’s arm is going to fall off.
Well it’s somewhat likely that he won’t continue to pitch at a high level for that long. You are very biased against Boston clearly.
My point is not that Swihart, Betts, and Bogaerts aren’t going to be good players. I actually think they all have a good chance to be good and possibly great. I would love to have them on my team. My objection is how Sox fans make it sound like the Phillies are ridiculous for even asking for them. I have seen Sox fans name them and about 3-4 other players as “untouchable” They all have potential, but the odds are against them. It is much more riskier for the
Phillies than the Sox. History supports that overwhelmingly. I don’t have any problem with Sox fans who don’t want to trade their young players for Hamels. But to say that the Sox don’t want or need Hamels to me is absurd. And to suggest that the Phillies are being ridiculous for what they are asking is even more absurd.
Every team has fans who throw out absurd trade ideas but experts have pretty much agreed that Swihart, Betts, and Bogaerts shouldn’t and wont be traded. It would just open up a new hole. They are not distant prospects but but present players. The Red Sox probably dont want Hamels as much as you would think. Pitchers are VERY risky and hes owed a ton of money. Would I like him on the Sox? Yes! Would I give up top propsects for him? Yes! I dont know where you are looking to find 3-4 other prospects who cant be traded. The only guy in the whole farm system who is probably untouchable is Moncada. The Red Sox have (depending on the list) 5-8 guys on the top 100 prospect list. The fact they wont trade 1-2 is not that shocking. You keep ignoring all the top prospects (Like Owens, Margot, Johnson) and good prospects ( Coyle, Ceccnini, Marrero) who could be moved. Devers and Erod probably wont be dealt but they are not off limits. There is nothing wrong with the Philies trying to get the best deal they can get but the Red Sox and most smart teams do not like paying top $ for over 30 pitchers. Its far more likely they will go get a rental such as Cueto, Kazmir, Leake at a far lessor cost.
Trust me, I’ve seen people on this site say they consider Owens, Margot, E-Rod, among others as untouchable. I also see many people try to diminish Hamels’ career. Specifically his record vs. AL East. Talk about cherry picking. I have watched Hamels for years. He’s not perfect but he is good. Very good.. I have loved watching him pitch. . If Sox fans don’t want to give up Betts or Swihart, I understand. If the Sox fans don’t want him at all, I think they are making a mistakeI. Do I think a deal could be made without Betts or Swihart? Yes, I do. But JBJ and Craig won’t cut it. Surely you would agree with me there.
I was not trolling on my posts, just trying to make my point by satiring the absurdity that I’ve seen on this site. Sorry if I offended. Good luck to you and your Sox.
I would 100% agree that Craig and JBJ only play in a trade would be as a final piece or in the case of Craig to offset money. I think a trade would need both Owens and Margot plus a couple other decent names.
I would agree to that.
He’s and ace #3 starter haha
I like how 4.26 ERA with 7.8 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 translates into “ace” these days. Just like the definition of a quality start. Smh. Guess I hold guys to a higher standard before I’ll call them elite.
I think you should read the article, and not just the tag line.
Truth will set you Free !