Tapped by many as the preseason favorites to win the World Series, the Nationals have enough depth on both the Major League and minor league level that their window of contention won’t snap shut if they don’t win it all this year. That said, there is certainly a sense that the window may never be quite as open as it is now, given that four of Washington’s top players are scheduled to hit free agency this winter.
Assuming that Ian Desmond, Doug Fister, Denard Span and Jordan Zimmermann all post their usual types of seasons in 2015, all will draw a lot of attention on the open market; MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ranks Desmond and Zimmerman fourth and sixth, respectively, in his 2016 Free Agent Power Rankings. Between interest from other teams and the Nats’ already-substantial salary commitments (over $84MM committed to just six players on their 2016 roster, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts), we can safely rule out the possibility of the Nationals bringing all four back. Indeed, some of Washington’s offseason moves seem directed at preparing for a future without some of these players, as I’ll explain momentarily.
The question is, however, will the Nationals bring back any of their free agent quartet? Let’s look at the options…
* Desmond. The shortstop reportedly rejected a seven-year, $107MM extension during the 2013-14 offseason, leading the Nats to explore acquiring a young shortstop at last summer’s trade deadline. Washington got that young shortstop in the form of Trea Turner as part of their three-team deal with the Rays and Padres over the winter, so it’s perhaps not surprising that Desmond and the Nats didn’t engage in significant extension talks, or that Desmond’s name surfaced in trade talks with the Mariners and Mets.
With all this in mind, Desmond’s days in Washington seem numbered, even if the Nationals would be letting perhaps the game’s best offensive shortstop leave.
* Zimmermann. The right-hander’s name was also linked to those talks with Seattle, and Boston also engaged the Nationals about Zimmermann’s services. Max Scherzer’s seven-year, $210MM deal essentially could make Zimmermann expendable, as Washington doesn’t want to ink another starter to another deal in the $200MM range, especially when they’ll also have Stephen Strasburg’s free agency to deal with after the 2016 season. (Then again, Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post recently speculated that the Nats may let both Zimmermann and Strasburg go due to concerns that their arms won’t hold up given their Tommy John histories.)
* Fister. Much of what I wrote about Zimmermann also applies to Fister, though obviously Fister’s free agent price tag will be significantly lower than Zimmerman’s next contract. The Nationals reportedly haven’t discussed an extension with Fister in about a year, so one would think they’re prepared to move on from the 31-year-old righty. That said,
* Span. The team already got a look at life without Span when the veteran outfielder began the season on the DL recovering from core muscle surgery. Top prospect Michael Taylor filled in as Washington’s center fielder and hit .271/.314/.500 in 51 plate appearances, though his defense left something to be desired. Still, Taylor performed well enough that the Nats likely feel as if they have a solid replacement on hand if Span isn’t brought back.
* None of them. As you may notice, I’ve listed several more “won’t be back” reasons than I have reasons for why the Nationals may re-sign any of the quartet. It’s quite possible Washington simply lets all four players go in order to save future payroll space for Strasburg and/or Bryce Harper’s future extensions. The Nats would also get a boost to their minor league system, as they’d receive at least three draft picks back as compensation if their players signed elsewhere — Desmond, Zimmermann and Fister are locks to receive qualifying offers, while Span could potentially get one too if he has a big season.
That said, it would also be somewhat surprising to see a team with such clear designs on winning a championship soon let four big pieces walk. While Washington has an enviable amount of starting pitching depth, any rotation would suffer in losing two proven arms like Zimmermann or Fister. Desmond, as noted, would leave a big hole at shortstop, and counting on Taylor to replace Span might be putting a lot of pressure on a youngster. Re-signing even two of the four could be a tall order, though I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Nationals bring back one of the four.
One more wrinkle: MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently speculated that the Nats could explore trading Zimmermann or Fister this summer in order to fill any other holes on the roster. Theoretically, this would open the door for Washington to add talent at midseason to bolster their postseason hopes, and then also allow them to possibly sign either traded pitcher in the offseason. As Jon Lester and the Red Sox might tell you, however, it’s very rare to see such a scenario play out with the traded ace immediately return to the club that dealt him away.
MLBTR readers, let’s see how you feel about whether or not Desmond, Fister, Span or Zimmermann will be back in the D.C. red in 2016 and beyond…
It really wouldn’t surprise me if all four move on. Desmond especially is as good as gone. I think of the four, Fister is probably the one they’re most likely to re-sign.
Agree. Zimmermann was gone after the Scherzer signing. Desmond was gone after the trade for Trea Turner. Span was gone after the emergence of Michael Taylor. Fister is the only one of the four who they may sign. It will probably depend on how pitchers like A.J.Cole and Lucas Giolito fare this year in the minors.
And I wonder if they keep strasburg as well
I think Desmond is most likely to be re-signed. Fister is an aging pitcher and they have a lot of SP depth. While they have Esobar and Turner the first is aging and declining and the second is unproven another year away. Also, they don’t have a long term 2B.
They have Wilmer Difo as a middle infielder coming up right behind Turner. He has great speed and had on base skills even before he found pop in his bat.
I’d say Zimmerman, but unlikely.
I think all four of them will be gone, but fister is the only one I could see them trying to re-sign, he wouldn’t cost as much like zimmermann or desmond would cost, and Taylor should be ready next year
I think Desmond is as good as gone, they will re-sign 1 of Fister/Zimmerman. Span is the wildcard, Nationals do have some OF options like Michael Taylor and Brian Goodwin
Zimmerman will be tough to keep, They should of gave Zimmerman the same contract they offered Scherzer, they didn’t need scherzer.
Scherzer’s better and has never had TJ. Over a long contract, that’s a huge deal. If Zimmerman tears his UCL again, his career will be over – if Scherzer does, he’ll miss a year and a bit.
Span is a goner, I think JZim is unfortunately gone. If they resign him, I think Stras will be gone. Fister and Desmond, IMO, will return (though i’d say Desmond is a 50-50%)
I think desmond is 50-50, they offered him a nice contract but he wants more, Fister is the only one I see them keeping, won’t cost much. Zimmermann imo is their best pitcher, they didn’t need scherzer , should of offered him like 155 mill or a lil more
I wrote that i think des is 50-50.
I agree with you 1000%. JZim is by far their best pitcher, but because we signed Scherzer to that deal, we’re going to lose him
they didn’t need to sign scherzer, they should of offered that kind of contract to zimmermann, now they are going to lose their best pitcher they have and then probably lose strasburg. Desmond and Span can be filled I think. Fister might be the only one that they keep, But I’m an angels fan, I wisht the angels could of traded kendrick to the nationals for zimmermann when they needed a second basemen, but not sure if the nationals would of done that
I kind of doubt that trade (Zimmermann for Kendrick) would have happened. Rizzo prefers trading for players with more than one year on their contracts — especially as he knew he was going to have to get someone who could fill in next year for Desmond at shortstop, hence the trade for Yunel Escobar.
As for Scherzer, before the signing, I was hoping they’d extend Zimmermann, but apparently their best and final offer wasn’t accepted. Yes, I’m sure it was less than Scherzer’s deal, but the Nats apparently have real doubts regarding years of durability past Tommy John surgery. For that reason, I am pretty sure Stras will be gone after 2016 as well. Hopefully the pitching depth in the minors will be sufficient.
Yea with Cole and Giolito, But didn’t Giolito have tommy john already? Zimmermann is their best pitcher and they are going to lose him in free agency, not sure where he goes, cubs or dodgers possibly the tigers, who knows
Yes, Giolito had Tommy John surgery within weeks after he was signed in 2012; however, the Nats knew this was going to happen and were willing to accept the risk (as they just did in the last draft with Eric Fedde). Their reluctance to extend Zimmermann has more to do with how long they expect starting pitchers to “last” following the surgery — coupled with the lower percentage of them returning to form after a second surgery. Therefore, the offer to Zimmermann was undoubtedly less than what Scherzer signed for. Yes, Zimm will leave after this year; as for where he goes, as you say, who knows. But they couldn’t force him to accept whatever offer was made, and at that point, they went after his replacement, Scherzer.
As much as I like JZim, Scherzer is on a different level. Will the Scherzer contract work out in the end? Maybe, maybe not. But he is one of the best pitchers in the game right now and would make losing JZim an affordable albeit sad (for Nats fans) departure.
Don’t waste time trying to outguess Mike Rizzo. He has a plan and he will stick to it, short of catastrophic injuries. He usually ends up surprising all the pundits.
Fister, maybe.
Wow
My predictions are that Desmond will go to the Yankees, Zimmermann goes to the Red Sox, Fister re-signs with the Nats and no clue about span
I said the same thing about desmond, since they are unsure of Didi and Drew. Zimmermann Goes where the money is, Fister is the only one I think the nats can keep. Span who knows, whoever needs a center fielder.
I don’t think they will offer another huge contract to a SP, so Zimmermann is gonna leave via free agency. They don’t really need Span either, so he is gone. Fister could be resigned if they want another starter, but they might choose to be a little cheaper in that regard, knowing they have Cole and Giolito in the wings, and Roark who is currently in the bullpen. I can see them resigning Desmond if they choose any of the four, however they may feel as though Turner is ready. IMO, their best bet would be to let all four walk because they have capable prospects replacing them, or resign Desmond, and push Turner into an OF role, in case Taylor struggles/busts.
With Signing Scherzer it messed up the nationals imo
How so?
I don’t think they’re expecting Turner to be ready next year to be the starting shortstop. That’s why the trade was made for Yunel Escobar. Those two deals (Turner and Escobar) made Desmond a lame duck (and he’s certainly been playing like one so far).
That would set them up for one heck of a 2016 draft. It would also position them well for guys like Cueto, who won’t get the QO due to getting traded before the deadline.
I think that all 4 are pretty likely to walk in this case and the Nats should probably let it happen, it would save them considerable money which could be used if another need arises. Zimmerman is going to be too much money for them at this point with Max on the books, Fister is pretty expendable and would just be a luxury unless Giolito/Cole both regress and prove to bust this year (which would be rather surprising) and I ultimately think another team will want him more than the Nats come free agency. Span also comes off as expendable due to their internal options. Desmond, to me, seems the most likely of the bunch to resign, but even he has possible internal answers.
Zimmerman seems as good as gone after the Scherzer signing. Washington can replace Zimmerman and Fister with Roark and a less expensive FA. Desmond and and to a lesser extent Span seem like the more likely candidates to return.
Not even much need for a FA. Maybe just some depth. Giolito is going to be ready for a spot soon.
It wasn’t just the Trea Turner pickup* (not yet official) that indicates that the Nats are planning on life without Desmond. It’s also the pickup of Yunel Escobar, as well as the development of Wilmer Difo. Assuming that Michael Taylor continues his development then Span will likely also be gone. If Span has any kind of a decent season and the Taylor stumbles a bit then a QO would be ensured – even if Span accepted the QO, the Nats could live with it for one year with the money for the other three coming off the books, without any long term impact on extensions for Strasburg, Harper, or Rendon.
I also think JZim is gone (note to commenters: he’s the “two n” Zimmermann, as opposed to Ryan “one n” Zimmerman). Fister is the best chance to re-sign a starter since Giolito is unlikely to be ready to start the season and Cole is no sure thing. But I think it’s more likely that Fister gets a better offer somewhere else and the Nats pocket the comp pick.
I actually think they lose Strasburg, Harper and Rendon will get extended down the road. But Zimmermann is their best pitcher.
Over the last three years while pitching in the AL Scherzer has had an average K/9 of 10.5, ERA of 3.25, FIP of 2.95, and accumulated 19.4 fWAR.
Over the same time while pitching in the NL, J-Zimm has had an average K/9 of 7.35, ERA of 2.95, FIP of 3.2, and accumulated 12.3 fWAR.
Scherzer is better.
Scherzer strikes more people out – reflected in his K/9 rate. FIP and fWAR are heavily dependent on how many guys you strike out.
I’m not going to argue who is the better pitcher, but you’re using 3 stats that are highly dependent on 1 number (strikeouts) and presenting them as 3 independent factors to prove Scherzer is the better pitcher.
And also, your numbers are wrong. Scherzer has a 15.3 fWAR in the 3 year period (still a lead, but not as substantial).
That’s because pitchers who strike people out more often are objectively more reliable. The more a pitcher allows balls to be put into play, the more reliant he is on random chance (balls not falling in, not being hit hard, fielders making plays) than on his skillset.
Scherzer is their best pitcher. He’s also never had TJ, which is huge when looking at long-term pitcher contracts.
I’d say none, with at least one midseason trade for younger talent, and a couple of QO’s. There’s enough pitching talent in the FA market, if they want it, to sign a replacement, and the overall costs are too high to try to do an extension midseason with these four.
The only one I could possibly see getting traded is Fister. IF the rest of the rotation is healthy and Cole/Giolito/Roark look ready to step in. This team is competing to win it all, it’s not worth trying to re-stock the farm.
Desmond is off to a hot start, both with the bat and with number of errors. Eight in 13 games. . .yikes.
Why didn’t they just give Zimmerman a contract that was 75% of Scherzer, 2 years early? Zimmerman would have taken it.
I don’t like the logic of losing homegrown talent at LESS money in favor of a mercenary at MORE money. Incrementally, perhaps Scherzer is slightly better than Zimmerman. But not worth the 25% premium they paid for him.
And if they had wanted to go “All In” for the last 2 years, they could have traded for Price. They had a lot more chips than Detroit to get him if they wanted him.
Well the team offered J-Zimm various extensions over the last few years but I think they weren’t comfortable giving J-Zimm close to Scherzer dough because of the fact he has had TJ.
Studies have shown second TJ happens around 600 IP after the first so I wonder if the team is worried J-Zimms are is going to go. Scherzer hasn’t had any health issues.
Also no way knowing if they could have gotten Price and they got Scherzer for money only.
Scherzer does have a violent delivery. It is a different risk. Perhaps a little less, but it is there.
I don’t mean that they would have extended Price. They would have simply had him for 1 year + 2 months like the Tigers do.
If they did that, they would have an equal or better rotation right now AND would have saved 25%+ (Zimmerman v. Scherzer).
If they had traded for Price, first, who knows what it would have cost them in prospects; second, if they were unable to extend him, then they would stand to lose THREE pitchers from their starting rotation to free agency after this year (Zimmermann, Fister and Price), with Stras leaving the following year. Plus, I believe Price is making close to $19 million this year and, if you take into account the salary deferral, Scherzer is ONLY making around $14 million.
In a study done a few seasons ago 50% of all TJS ended up on the DL with arm troubles and now, over the last 2 seasons (I believe it was) just over 35% of TJS are repeat 2nd surgeries or in one case a 3rd. I think teams are becoming more aware. Zimm and Stras are hard throwers and Zimm throws heat 70.3% of the time. Max tosses his 92mph FB 55%.
After these first two weeks I really hope they move on from Desmond.
I hope Desmond ends up getting less money to play elsewhere. A player as terrible as him defensively has no business making over $100 million.
The Nats are definitely better off letting him walk. Desmond taking nine figures somewhere else could be a blessing in disguise, in spite of their attempts to keep him.
I’d love to see a team recklessly give him that much.
Nats are sitting pretty. They can reload with all the rejected QO draft picks and sign a proven bat like Dan Murphy for 2B for relatively cheap and let Escobar hold the fort at SS until Turner or Difo claims the position. Strasburg has face of the franchise potential and I think they will value that highly and retain him when the time comes. As for next year, Scherzer/Strasburg/Gio/Roark/Cole with some depth signings ain’t bad, and Taylor/Harper/Rendon/Werth/Zimmerman/Murphy/Ramos is plenty of offense to win. They can invest in their pen or even one of the many top starters on the FA market. It is an enviable situation.
Fister is gone for sure.
He rejected extension talks already.
Fister is from the West Coast (California)
and has stated he wants play on the West Coast….
Desmond is definitely gone, the writing has been on the wall for a while in that regard.
Span is the Wildcard. Taylor will be ready if he goes down to Syracuse (AAA) and plays everyday, if he stays with the big club all season and plays once or twice a week, they may bring Span back, but then your in the same hole next year you were this year: where does Taylor play since Werth is pretty much untradeable?? I say Span leaves.
At least one of Fister/JZimm won’t be back. They both won’t be back and there’s a chance both leave. I’d rather have Fister resign as he’ll cost less. I also think the Fister/JZimm scenario will dictate what management does with Stras in 2017. IF they resign one of the 2, and that is JZimm, J Zimm will take Stras’s money as as I said J Zimm will cost more. If they resign Fister, they have enough cash to give Stras the extension. However, with how he’s pitched so far this season, and I still don’t think he’s game in the playoffs, J Zimm looks like the better alternative. I think in 2018 I’d rather have Scherzer, J Zimm, Giolitto & Cole anchoring the rotation then Scherzer, Strasburg, Fister & Giolitto